• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.30-36
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• 2018

This study investigates the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, population density, and carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) emissions in Bangladesh for the period of 1975 to 2013. It applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration for establishing the existence of a long-run relationship. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long-run when $CO_2$ emissions is the dependent variable. The results indicate that energy consumption has statistically significant positive effect on $CO_2$ emissions both in the short-run and long-run. The effect of population density is significant in long-run, but not in short-run. The estimated coefficients for economic growth and trade liberalization are negative and insignificant both in short-run and long-run. The paper suggests that the government of Bangladesh should undertake the policy actions to develop alternative energy sources which would not emit much $CO_2$.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.155-173
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• 1993

주식수익율(株式收益率)의 조건부분산(條件附分散)의 움직임을 모형화(模型化)하기 위하여 Engle(1982)의 ARCH(Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)모형(模型)을 효시(嚆矢)로 많은 종류의 모형(模型)이 제시되어 왔다. 이 가운데서 Nelson(1991)의 EGARCH(Exponential Generalized ARCH)는 종래의 모형(模型)에 비하여 여러가지 장점(長點)을 지니고 있는 모형(模型)이다. 그러나 EGARCH에서는 비기대수익율(非期待收益率)(unexpected return)이 조건부분산(條件附分散)에 미처는 규모효과(規模效果)(magnitude effect)와 비대칭효과(非對稱效果)(asymmetry effect)의 영향(影響)이 동일한 동태(動態)(dynamics)를 보인다고 가정(假定)하고 있다. 본(本) 논문(論文)은 이 가정(假定)을 완화하였을 때 규모효과(規模效果)와 비대칭효과(非對稱效果)가 매우 다른 동태(動態)를 가지며, 특히 규모효과(規模效果)의 영향은 오래 지속되는 반면 비대칭효과(非對稱效果)는 비교적 빠르게 사라짐을 보여준다.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.191-194
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• 1998

In this research, two stochastic models are considered to detect and estimate the effect of air temperature change due to Industrialization In Ulsan area. Using the monthly mean minimum air temperature anomalies, the data are divided Into pre-Industrialization part and Industrialization one for analysis. The ARM(autoregressive moving-average) model and intervention model have been applied to the data for the analysis. The results show that the variability of minimum temperature anomalies are very significant In 1989, and also significant In 1971 when the Industrialization have started. Therefore, It Is stochastically possible to estimate the time when the affection of Increase of the temperature concerning Industrialization to climate change In Usm area has happened.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.13 no.12
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• pp.33-39
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• 2022

Purpose: This research investigates the paths of some important economic variables: government domestic product (GDP), capital accumulation, unemployment rates. Decreasing GDP, declining capital accumulation and higher unemployment affect to South Korea economy. The macroeconomic policies discussed are all capital financed accumulation policy and an enactment of unemployment regulation. Research design, data and methodology: The GDP, capital accumulation rates and unemployment rates are the main macroeconomic issues in the South Korea. This research studies the correlations of the GDP, capital accumulation, and unemployment rates by time series data from 2000 to 2005 in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR). Results: The first, GDP relates a positive effect between the GDP and capital accumulation in the long term. The second, there is the negative relationship between GDP and unemployment rates. Economic growth was strongly supported by employment growth and by declining unemployment. The third, There is positive relationship between unemployment rates and capital accumulation. Conclusions: This research provides that fiscal policy introduce to increasing GDP, private investments and employment rates. The GDP should be major on capital accumulation to increase employment rates in South Korea.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.591-599
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• 2020

This study examines how the health of the banks in ASEAN-3 countries namely Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand respond to the change in exchange rates and foreign interest rates in four large economies. The transmissions of the two external factors through domestic factors in each ASEAN-3 countries eventually affects Non-Performing Loan (NPL) of commercial banks. This study uses the monthly time series data and the renowned Structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model comprising five variables, namely exchange rate, foreign interest rate, domestic interest rate, money supply, and non-performing loan (NPL). The results indicate that there are different effects between ASEAN-3 countries, which can be classified as short-run effect and long-run effect. In the long run effect, external factors have a dominant role in determining NPL in ASEAN-3 countries. Yuan has the biggest effect on Malaysia's NPL, while Indonesia is more affected by European interest rates rather than the fluctuation of the US currency and China's interest rates. Among ASEAN-3 countries, Malaysia is the one that is the most vulnerable to external factors. While Thailand's NPL is affected dominantly by domestic factors. This study shows that the Fed Funds Rate (US official interest rate) is not always the dominant factor affecting the health of domestic banks in ASEAN-3.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.17-30
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• 2019

This study is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between Korea and ASEAN 10 countries. Using quarterly data from 1991 to 2017 the paper analyzes whether or not the real depreciation of Korea's won could improve the trade balance in the short and long term. Based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) model, the empirical results show that trade balance, GDP, and real exchange rate are all cointegrated, representing the long-run relationship among variables. In the consideration of long-run relationship, the increases in ASEAN countries' GDP could have a negative impact and Korea's GDP positive impact on trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries unexpectedly. For the main variable, the paper did not find the long-term effect of real exchange rate on the trade balance, for the short-term effect of the real exchange rate it was found that there exists the J-curve effect only in the case of Vietnam and Brunei. Therefore, these results imply that the intended policy concerning the exchange rate in the free-floating exchange rate system could be limited to improve the trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.133-146
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• 2015

This study is to investigate the causal relationship between exchange hedge and the net income of the shipbuilder through the unit root test and co-integration and vector autoregressive model(Vector Autoregressive Model: VAR). First, quarter net income of shipbuilders to order a unit root tests from 2000 to 2013 was used as a value after the Johnson transformation. In the same period, the return on bond futures(KTBF), three years bond yield(KTB3Y), America-Korea exchange differences are weekly data for each quarterly difference in value was converted by utilization, shipbuilding shares after log transformation which it was used. Also, structural change point investigation analysis to verify that looked to take advantage of the structural changes occur in the exchange hedge strategies affecting net income in the shipbuilding industry. Between the exchange hedge and net income of shipbuilders in structural change points detection and analysis showed that structural changes occur starting in 2004. In other words, strategy of shipbuilders about exchange hedge has occurred from "passive exchange hedge" to "active exchange hedge". The exchange hedge of the Korea shipbuilders through the estimation of the VAR was able to grasp that affect the profitability of mutual shipbuilders. Macroeconomic variables and stock prices could also check to see that affected the net income of the shipbuilding industry.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Child Welfare
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• no.32
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• pp.7-32
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• 2010

The purpose of this research is to identify the longitudinal reciprocal relationship between family social capital and self-esteem of adolescents. Five waves of panel data from the Korea Youth Panel Survey were employed for this research. Korean Adolescents Policy Research Institute collected the first wave data in 2004 from elementary school children in 4th grade. Autoregressive cross-lagged modeling was performed to analysis the longitudinal reciprocal relationship between family social capital and self-esteem. The major findings were as follows. First, stability coefficient of family social capital and self-esteem showed that both variables were significantly stable over time. Secondly family social capital(t) had statistically significant effect on self-esteem(t+1), whereas self-esteem did not predict family social capital at a statistically significant level. These findings suggest that family social capital and self-esteem is stable overtime, and that obtaining family social capital and establishing positive self-esteem is important during this period in childhood. In addition, the results show that family social capital affects self-esteem, which highlights the importance of family social capital accumulation on the development of adolescent self-esteem.

• Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.49-65
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• 2022

This study aims to examine the mutual influences of negative parenting attitudes, self-esteem, and life satisfaction perceived by adolescent children through longitudinal perspective. Data from the first to third years of the panel of the first year middle school students were used among the 2018 data of the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS) of the Korea Youth Policy Institute. The longitudinal correlation was analyzed by applying the autoregressive cross-lagged model which can determine the direction of longitudinal causality between variables. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the negative parenting attitudes, self-esteem, and life satisfaction perceived by adolescents had a positive effect on the negative parenting attitude perception, self-esteem, and life satisfaction at later times, respectively. In addition, the higher the negative parenting attitude at the previous point was, the lower the self-esteem or life satisfaction afterward. The higher the life satisfaction, the lower the negative parenting attitude of the parents, and the higher the self-esteem. Recognition of negative parenting attitudes of parents lowered the self-esteem of adolescents, whereas the cross-delay coefficient from self-esteem to negative parenting attitude perception was not significant. Through these results, the longitudinal relationship between negative parenting attitude perception of adolescence, self-esteem, and life satisfaction was confirmed and efforts to form positive self-esteem and improve life satisfaction were discussed.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.123-130
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• 2019

The paper aims to investigate whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has positive effect on the labour productivity in Vietnam. Labour productivity is the elemental determinant of a country's development level in long-term. In recent years, although increasing consistently, labour productivity of Vietnam remains low in comparison to other South East Asian countries. To identify the direction of effect and the level of effect of FDI and human capital on the labour productivity of Vietnam, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to examine the effect of FDI and human capital on labour productivity in Vietnam from 1986 to 2014. The results of bounds test confirm the existence of cointegration among the variables. Further, the Toda and Yamamoto Granger causality test affirms that there is unidirectional causality running from foreign direct investment and human capital index to labour productivity. The empirical results provide strong statistical evidence that foreign direct investment and human capital has a positive impact on labour productivity in Vietnam in long-term. These findings imply that workers are expected to further improve their knowledge, skills and that policy-maker should establish concrete plans to increase human capital. Results from this study provide suggestion necessary for Vietnam to achieve sustainable development.