• Title/Summary/Keyword: Autoregressive Effect

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Analysis of the Effect of Korea's Environmentally Harmful Subsidy Reform in the Electric Power Sector : Mainly on its Industrial Cross-subsidies Reform (우리나라 전력부문의 환경유해보조금 개편 효과분석 : 산업용 교차보조금 개편을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Man-Ok;Hwang, Uk
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.57-81
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    • 2010
  • Since the Republic of Korea is highly dependent on fossil fuels despite high oil prices, it urgently needs to renew its economic and social system to cut carbon emissions and achieve green growth. Therefore, reforming or eliminating subsidies related to the use of fossil fuels is a timely and oppropriate policy recommendation for Korea. It would be a win-win deal for Korean society as it would not only reduce the use of environmentally harmful fossil fuels but also enhance economic efficiency. In particular, cross-subsidies for industrial, agricultural and night thermal-storage power services make up more than 80 percent of all subsidies provided to the entire electric power industry sector of Korea. Of these cross-subsidies, this paper analyzes the electricity subsidy for industries, which takes up the largest share (about KRW 1.6583 trillion yearly), among the environmentally harmful subsidies in the electric power sector. Thus, the paper focuses on the analysis of ripple effect anticipated when this is reformed. To examine the effects of this subsidy reform, price elasticities were estimated using the ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) model and quarterly data from 1990 to 2007. The main results of this study show that 1) annual energy demand for electric power in the industrial sector would drop by 12,475,930MWh and 2) $CO_2$ emissions would plummet by 2,644,897 tons per year if the subsidy were reformed. We can deduct from this that the abolition of environmentally harmful subsidies in the electric power sector in the Republic of Korea would considerably contribute to $CO_2$ emissions abatement in the country.

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A Study on Scale Effects of the MAUP According to the Degree of Spatial Autocorrelation - Focused on LBSNS Data - (공간적 자기상관성의 정도에 따른 MAUP에서의 스케일 효과 연구 - LBSNS 데이터를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Young Min;Kwon, Pil;Yu, Ki Yun;Huh, Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2016
  • In order to visualize point based Location-Based Social Network Services(LBSNS) data on multi-scaled tile map effectively, it is necessary to apply tile-based clustering method. Then determinating reasonable numbers and size of tiles is required. However, there is no such criteria and the numbers and size of tiles are modified based on data type and the purpose of analysis. In other words, researchers' subjectivity is always involved in this type of study. This is when Modifiable Areal Unit Problem(MAUP) occurs, that affects the results of analysis. Among LBSNS, geotagged Twitter data were chosen to find the influence of MAUP in scale effects perspective. For this purpose, the degree of spatial autocorrelation using spatial error model was altered, and change of distributions was analyzed using Morna's I. As a result, positive spatial autocorrelation showed in the original data and the spatial autocorrelation was decreased as the value of spatial autoregressive coefficient was increasing. Therefore, the intensity of the spatial autocorrelation of Twitter data was adjusted to five levels, and for each level, nine different size of grid was created. For each level and different grid sizes, Moran's I was calculated. It was found that the spatial autocorrelation was increased when the aggregation level was being increased and decreased in a certainpoint. Another tendency was found that the scale effect of MAUP was decreased when the spatial autocorrelation was high.

A Study of Bi-lateral and Autoregressive Relationship of Corporate Social Performance and Financial Performance - Panel Data Analysis on Top 1,000 corporations in Korea - (기업사회공헌과 재무성과의 쌍방향적 관계 및 자기상관관계에 관한 연구 : 국내 1000대 기업을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Chul Hee;Kim, Chang Woo;Choi, Jung Eun
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.205-232
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the bilateral and autoregressive relationships of corporate social performance and corporate financial performance by using dynamic panel model based on fixed effect analysis method. To satisfy this study purpose, 6 years data (2008-2013) of top 1,000 corporations in Korea was collected and finally 430 corporations were used for dynamic panel analysis. The main results were as follows. First, the preceding financial performance explains the following corporate social performance in positive direction. Second, the preceding corporate social performance does not explain the following financial performance. Third, the preceding corporate social performance explains the following corporate social performance in positive direction. Fourth, the preceding financial performance explains the following financial performance in positive direction. This result shows that slack resources theory is supported and good management theory is not supported. In addition, there is a significant relationship between the preceding corporate social performance and the following corporate social performance. Lastly, this study broadens and deepens previous understanding on corporate social philanthropy and discusses theoretical meanings and implications for future study.

The Effects of FTA Diversification on Bilateral Trade in the Spatial Model (공간모형을 통한 FTA의 다각화가 양자무역에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Soon-Cheul
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.53-78
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    • 2016
  • This study is to analyze the effects of both the bilateral FTA and a home and its trade partner's FTAs on the trade with 62 country-pair panel data over the period of 2003-2013 using the gravity model and the spatial autoregressive model. First, the study analyzes how the bilateral FTAs affect the trade using the gravity model and the spatial model. Next, the article analyzes how the home and its trade partners' FTAs affect their trade using only the spatial model under controlling the bilateral FTA. The empirical results are summarized as the followings: first, the spatial mode fits well more than the gravity model in analyzing the relationship between the bilateral FTA and trade. It implies that the spatial spillover effect of FTA is important in the international trade with FTA. Second, the bilateral FTA plays a role in expanding the trade between or among the FTA members as proved by the previous studies. Third, the more the home and its trade partners' FTAs, the more the bilateral trade are extended. Fourth, with the bilateral FTAs, as the home and its trade partners enter into more FTAs, the bilateral trade reduces due to trade diversion effects. In conclusion, this study provides a political implication that in order to increase the trade volume, a country enters into as many FTAs as possible because the effects of the bilateral FTAs would decrease.

Effect of Repeated Public Releases on Cesarean Section Rates

  • Jang, Won-Mo;Eun, Sang-Jun;Lee, Chae-Eun;Kim, Yoon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.2-8
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    • 2011
  • Objectives: Public release of and feedback (here after public release) on institutional (clinics and hospitals) cesarean section rates has had the effect of reducing cesarean section rates. However, compared to the isolated intervention, there was scant evidence of the effect of repeated public releases (RPR) on cesarean section rates. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of RPR for reducing cesarean section rates. Methods: From January 2003 to July 2007, the nationwide monthly institutional cesarean section rates data (1 951 303 deliveries at 1194 institutions) were analyzed. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series intervention models to assess the effect of the RPR on cesarean section rates and ordinal logistic regression model to determine the characteristics of the change in cesarean section rates. Results: Among four RPR, we found that only the first one (August 29, 2005) decreased the cesarean section rate (by 0.81 percent) and continued to have an impact period through the last observation in May 2007. Baseline cesarean section rates (OR, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.1 to 7.1) and annual number of deliveries (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6 to 4.7) of institutions in the upper third of each category at before first intervention had a significant contribution to the decrease of cesarean section rates. Conclusions: We could not found the evidence that RPR has had the significant effect of reducing cesarean section rates. Institutions with upper baseline cesarean section rates and annual number of deliveries were more responsive to RPR.

Research on Spatial Dependence and Influencing Factors of Korean Intra-Industry Trade of Agricultural Products: From South Korea's Agricultural Trade Data

  • Lv, Hong-Qu;Huang, Chen-Yang
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.116-133
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - Intra-industry trade of agricultural products can eliminate the disadvantage of Korea's traditional agriculture and improve its lack of comparative advantage. The main purpose of this paper is to measure the level and index of intra-industry trade of Korean agricultural products and to explore the spatial dependence and spillover effect associated with this type of trade. The main factors influencing intra-agricultural trade are analyzed from two perspectives: the population and the classification of agricultural products. Design/methodology - First, the level of intra-industry trade of Korean agricultural products is measured. Second, to obtain a more accurate estimate of the influence of various factors, and based on two types of weight matrices, a spatial econometric model is constructed from two aspects: population and classification of agricultural products. The status and the factors influencing intra-industry trade are also studied. Findings - It is concluded that there is a positive spatial correlation between Korea's intra-industry trade in agricultural products and that of its trading partners. The spatial spillover effect of this type of trade is verified by using the spatial autoregressive model (SAR). Labor-intensive agricultural products are found to have a positive spillover effect on intra-industry trade, while land-intensive products do not have a significant effect. Originality/value - In this paper, the two types of agricultural products are meticulously distinguished, and the spatial effect of the intra-industry trade of agricultural products as well as the influence of various factors are analyzed. In addition, the accuracy of the estimation of the coefficients of the factors by using the spatial econometric model is higher than that of the ordinary panel data model.

Dynamics of Asset Returns Considering Asymmetric Volatility Effects: Evidences from Korean Asset Markets (우리나라 자산가격 변동의 기준점 효과 및 전망이론적 해석 가능성 검정)

  • Kim, Yun-Yeong;Lee, Jinsoo
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.93-124
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we claim the asymmetric response of asset returns on the past asset returns' signs may be explained from the market behavioral portfolio choice of investors. For this, we admit the anchor and adjustment mechanism of investors which partly explains the momentum in the asset prices. We also claim the prospect theory based on the risk aversions may simultaneously work with the anchor and adjustment effect, whenever the lagged asset return was positive and investors accrued the gain. To identify these effects empirically in a threshold autoregressive model, we suppose the risk aversions inducing the volatility effect is related with the past volatility of asset returns. In application of suggested method to Korean stock and real estate markets, we found these effect exist as expected.

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The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Economic Fundamentals: Evidence from Korean Panel Data (주택가격과 기초경제여건의 장기 관계: 우리나라의 패널 자료를 이용하여)

  • Sim, Sunghoon
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.3-27
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    • 2012
  • This paper adopts recently developed panel unit root test that is cross-sectionally robust. Cointegration test is also used to find whether regional house prices are in line with gross regional domestic production (GRDP) in the long run in Korea during 1989-2009. Based on the panel VECM and the panel ARDL models, we examine causal relationships among the variables and estimate the long-run elasticity. We find evidence of cointegration and bidirectional causal relationships between regional house prices and GRDP. The results of long-run estimates, using both fixed effect and ARDL models, show that house prices positively and significantly influence on the GRDP and vice versa. Together with these results, the findings of ARDL-ECM imply that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between house prices and regional economic variables even if there is a possibility of short-run deviation from its long-run path.

근육 피로도 분석시 사용되는 매개변수들간의 민감도 비교 연구

  • 정명철;김정룡
    • Proceedings of the ESK Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.406-413
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    • 1997
  • 근전도(EMG:Electromyogram)를 사용하여 국부 근육 피로(Localized Muscle Fatigue)를 정량화으로 분석 하기 위해 널리 이용되고 있는 AR(Autoregressive)모델의 1차 계수, RMS(Root Mean Square), ZCR(Zero Crossing Rate), MPF(Mean Power Frequency), MF(Median Frequency)를 선택하여, 근육이 발휘하는 힘과 시간의 흐름에 따라 근육 피로의 정도를 민감하게 나타내는 매개변수를 규명하였다. 피실험자 10명의 좌우 척추세움근(Erector Spinae Muscle)을 대상으로 등장수축(Sustained Isometric Contraction)조건에서 허리의 신전(Extension)운동을 실시하였다. 이때 발휘해야 하는 힘의 수준은 15%, 30%, 45%, 60%, 75% MVC 로 정하였고 각 수준마다 20초 동안 근전도를 측정하 였다. 데이터 분석은 총20초 구간의 근전도를 0.5초 간격으로 나누어 매개변수들을 각각 구하고 분석을 실시하였다. 시간의 흐름에 대한 피로도 분석 결과, AR 모델의 1차 계수와 MPF가 유의한 차이를 보였으며, 낮은 수준의 %MVC에서는 AR 계수가, 높은 수준에서는 MPF가 민감한 반응 결과를 나타냈다. 그리고 근육이 발휘하는 힘의 정도를 분석하기 위해 주로 사용되고 있는 RMS 보다는 더 AR 계수가 모든 수준에서 뚜렷하게 차이를 보인 것이 확인되었다. 따라서 AR 모델의 1차 계수가 근육의 피로 정도와 힘의 수준을 다른 매개변수에 비해 더욱 민감하게 구별함이 입증되었다. 이러한 결과는 다른 분야에서도 근육 피로를 정량적으로 측정하는데 사용될 수 있을 것으로 생각되며, 개인적 변이도를 고려한 확률 기법을 사용한다면 보다 정확한 근전도 분석이 이루어질 것으로 기대된다.있음을 알 수 있었다. 사료된다.의 결과는 자전거 에르고노미터의 결과가 트레드밀의 결과에 87.60%정도 나타났다.음을 관찰하였다. 특히 vitamin C와 E의 병용투여는 상승적으로 적용하여 간세포손상을 더욱 억제시킴을 알 수 있었다.mance and on TFP(Total Factor Productivity) growth which is a pure measure of firm performance. To utilize the advantage of panel data, FEM(Fixed Effect Model) and REM(Random Effect Model) were used. The empirical result shows that the entropy index as a measurement of inter-business relatedness is not significant but technological relatedness index is significant. OLS estimates on pooled data were considerably different from FEM or REM estimates on panel data. By introducing interaction effect among the three variables for business portfolio properties, we obtained three findings. First, only VI (Vertical integration) has a significant positive correlation with ROS. Second, when using TFP growth as an dependent variable, both TR(Technological Relatedness) and f[ are signif

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Economic Development, Globalization, Political Risk and CO2 Emission: The Case of Vietnam

  • VU, Thi Van;HUANG, De Chun
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the dynamic effects of economic development, international cooperation, electricity consumption, and political risk on the escalation of CO2 emission in Vietnam. We adopted autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality method to examine the interaction between CO2 and various economic and political factors, including foreign direct investment, trade openness, economic growth, manufacture, electricity consumption, and political risk in Vietnam since the economic revolution in 1986. The findings reflect opposite influence between these factors and the level of CO2 in the intermediate and long-term durations. Accordingly, foreign direct investment and CO2 emission have a bidirectional relationship, in which foreign direct investment accelerates short-term CO2 emission, but reduces it in the long run through an interactive mechanism. Moreover, economic development increases the volume of CO2 emission in both short and long run. There was also evidence that political risk has a negative effect on the environment. Overall, the findings confirm lasting negative environmental effects of economic growth, trade liberalization, and increased electricity consumption. These factors, with Granger causality, mutually affect the escalation of CO2 in Vietnam. In order to control the level of CO2, more efforts are required to improve administrative transparency, attract high-quality foreign investment, and decouple the environment from economic development.