• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.1-22
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• 2022

We investigate the dynamic relationships among digital piracy activities, TV ratings, and online buzz for Korean TV dramas using a panel vector autoregression model. Our main findings include 1) TV ratings are negatively affected by digital piracy activities but positively affected by google buzz, 2) digital piracy activities are negatively affected by TV ratings and social buzz, and 3) social buzz and google buzz are positively influenced by each other. While many empirical studies were conducted to reveal the effects of music or movie piracy, our understanding of drama piracy is limited. We provide empirical evidence of the dynamic relationships between drama piracy, TV ratings, and online buzz. Our findings show the presence of indirect piracy effects on TV ratings through online buzz. Further, we reveal that social buzz and google trends play different roles in promoting TV ratings and piracy activities. We discuss the implications of our findings for theory and practitioners.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.11-23
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• 2003

This study Investigates the short and long-run dynamic relationships between the domestic and U.S. stock markets for the period of declining stock prices. It Is well known that the domestic stock market variations are largely caused by the U.S. stock market movements. Multivariate causal tty test Is utilized to examine the lead-lag relationships among four stock prices of KOSPI and KOSDAQ In the domestic part and DOWJONES and NASDAQ In the U.S. part. When the stock prices tend to decrease In the long run, It Is found that both KOSPI and KOSDAQ have closer relations with NASDAQ than DOWJONES. When both of domestic stock markets are severely fluctuate, bidirectional causal relationships appear to exist between NASDAQ and each of KOSPI and KOSDAQ. On the other hand. when the domestic stock markets are relatively stable, unidirectional causality Is found to exist between NASDAQ and each of KOSPI and KOSDAQ. which is explicitly validated by the analysis of variance decomposition.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.555-562
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• 2017

The accuracy and integrity of stress data acquired by bridge heath monitoring system is of significant importance for bridge safety assessment. However, the missing and abnormal data are inevitably existed in a realistic monitoring system. This paper presents a data reconstruction approach for bridge heath monitoring based on the wavelet multi-resolution analysis and support vector machine (SVM). The proposed method has been applied for data imputation based on the recorded data by the structural health monitoring (SHM) system instrumented on a prestressed concrete cable-stayed bridge. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed wavelet-based SVM prediction method is examined by comparing with the traditional autoregression moving average (ARMA) method and SVM prediction method without wavelet multi-resolution analysis in accordance with the prediction errors. The data reconstruction analysis based on 5-day and 1-day continuous stress history data with obvious preternatural signals is performed to examine the effect of sample size on the accuracy of data reconstruction. The results indicate that the proposed data reconstruction approach based on wavelet multi-resolution analysis and SVM is an effective tool for missing data imputation or preternatural signal replacement, which can serve as a solid foundation for the purpose of accurately evaluating the safety of bridge structures.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.437-445
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• 2000

The present paper is introducing a new model so called TAR-GARCH in the context of stock price analysis Conventional models such as AR(l), TAR(l), ARCH(I) and GARCH( 1,1) are briefly reviewed and TAR-GARCH is suggested in analyizing domestic stock prices. Also, relevant iterative estimation procedure is developed. It is seen that TAR-GARCH provides the better fit relative to traditional first order models for stock prices data in Korea.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.13-21
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• 2011

This paper studies the analysis of multivariate nonstationary time series with seasonality. Three types of multivariate time series models are considered: seasonal cointegration model, nonseasonal cointegration model with seasonal dummies, and vector autoregressive model in seasonal differences that are compared for forecasting performances using Korean macro-economic time series data. The cointegration models produce smaller forecast errors in short horizons; however, when longer forecasting periods are considered the vector autoregressive model appears preferable.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.203-223
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• 2019

This paper examines the interactions between financial conditions and business cycles in Mongolia, a small open economy, heavily depending on commodity exports. We construct two financial conditions indexes based on the reduced form IS model and the vector autoregression (VAR) model as surveillance tools to quantify the degree of the financial conditions. We find that real short-term interest rate and real effective exchange rate gap get a higher weight in the FCIs. Both business and financial cycles are often more pronounced in Mongolia, and financial condition is dependent of the financial and monetary policies in place. The analysis of the predictive power of the FCIs for business cycles shows that they have predictive information for the near-term economic activities. FCIs are also helpful in signaling inflation turning points.

• Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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• 2020.08a
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• pp.215-217
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• 2020

본 논문은 배터리 팩 내부 셀 파라미터의 불균일도에 대한 분석을 실시하고 이를 기반으로 과방전을 사전에 진단할 수 있는 방법을 제안한다. 이를 위해서 배터리 팩 내부 셀간 편차가 발생하는 셀을 선정하여 두 셀간 특성 분석을 실시하였으며, 이를 기준으로 예측 모델을 구성하였다. 예측 성능을 통해 배터리 전압 예측 성능에 영향을 미치는 인자를 분석하였으며, 배터리 전기적 등가회로 모델을 기반으로 예측 모델을 제안한다. 예측 모델은 실제 과방전이 발생한 셀을 기준으로 실험데이터와 비교하여 예측 성능을 검증하였다.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.72-113
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• 2020

This study investigates the relationship between mineral exports to China, North Korea's most important source of foreign currency acquisition, and its imports of various items from China from the first quarter of 1995 through to the third quarter of 2019. The results from a cointegration analysis suggest that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between mineral exports and imports of food, fuel, and some intermediate goods, such as industrial supplies, parts, and accessories. The results from a vector autoregression using first-differenced variables indicate that the short-run relationship between mineral exports and imports is different between the period before and after the third quarter of 2010. Prior to structural changes, i.e., before the third quarter of 2010, import shocks affected mineral exports. However, after the third quarter of 2010, an increase in mineral exports led to an increase in the import of vehicles, intermediate goods, and luxury goods. This paper shows both the possibilities and the limits that mineral exports can contribute to North Korea's economic growth. The results, which show that mineral exports have a long-run relationship with intermediate goods, such as industrial supplies, parts and accessories, imply that mineral exports to China could have a positive effect on the North Korean economy. However, the fact that mineral exports do not have any significant effect on the import of machinery and equipment, which helps the accumulation of capital formation, shows that mineral exports have a limited effect on inducing long-term growth in the North Korean economy.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.1-19
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• 2018

This study aims to identify the causal relationship among public technology transfer, technological performance, and research and development (R&D) productivity. Using the impulse-response function(IRF) of a panel vector autoregressive model (panel VAR), this study suggests the results of how long the factors such as technological performance (patent), public technology transfer, and R&D productivity takes and lasts if a one-unit shock of standard deviation occurs. As a result, first, the increase of public technology transfer activities has no power to increase the technology performance but improve the R&D productivity. If the public institute increases its technology transfer activities by one unit, the R&D productivity will increase within five years. Second, the impact of increasing technological performance on improvement of public technology transfer and R&D productivity is an insignificant. Third, the effect of R&D productivity on the public technology transfer creates a substantial reaction after a current time. Considering the structural relationships among public technology transfer, technological performance, and R&D productivity, if policy makers intend to construct the active R&D circumstance, technology suppliers should be motivated to run the active R&D mechanism because they achieve gains.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.69-83
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• 2020

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether asymmetric price transmission exists in the distribution stage of farmed olive flounder market. For the analysis, time series data were used for the producer prices of Jeju and Wando, and the wholesale prices of Incheon, Hanam and Busan. Through the Granger causality test, the causal relationship from the producer price to the wholesale price was derived and the asymmetric price transmission was analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a phenomenon of 'positive asymmetric price transmission' from the producer price to the wholesale price. This result can be one evidence that excess profits are received in the intermediate distribution stage, and can be said to be a result showing the incompleteness and inefficiency of the distribution structure of the farmed olive flounder. In the future, it is required to establish an information-sharing system in all stages of production, distribution, and consumption that can create a competitive environment for distribution participants and resolve information asymmetry. Also, it is necessary to review the distribution center specializing in live fish from the viewpoint of the establishment of new distribution channels and sales diversification strategy under the rapidly changing fisheries environment.