• Title/Summary/Keyword: Auto-regressive(AR) model

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Vibration Response Analysis of Caisson Structure-Foundation Interface using Forced Vibration (강제진동해석을 통한 케이슨 구조-지반 경계의 진동응답 분석)

  • Lee, So-Ra;Lee, So-Young;Kim, Jeong-Tae;Kim, Heon-Tae;Park, Woo-Sun;Yi, Jin-Hak
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2010.04a
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    • pp.145-148
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    • 2010
  • 항만 구조물의 건전성 평가 기술의 개발을 위한 기초 연구로서, 강제진동해석을 통하여 케이슨 구조-지반 경계부의 손상에 대한 진동응답을 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 세 단계의 연구를 수행하였다. 첫째, 케이슨 구조물의 진동특성 분석을 위해 시간영역기반의 AR(auto-regressive)모델을 선정하였다. 둘째, 모형 케이슨 구조물을 대상으로 진동응답 계측실험을 수행하였으며, AR-모델을 통해 진동특징을 실험적으로 분석하였다. 셋째, 대상 케이슨 시스템의 유한요소모델을 구성하고, 구조-지반 경계부의 손상에 따른 동적응답 특성의 변화를 수치적으로 분석하였다. 이를 위해 강제진동을 모사 하였으며, 구조-지반 경계부의 강성변화에 따른 케이슨 구조물의 진동응답의 변화를 분석하였다.

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Prediction of Covid-19 confirmed number of cases using ARIMA model (ARIMA모형을 이용한 코로나19 확진자수 예측)

  • Kim, Jae-Ho;Kim, Jang-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.12
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    • pp.1756-1761
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    • 2021
  • Although the COVID-19 outbreak that occurred in Wuhan, Hubei around December 2019, seemed to be gradually decreasing, it was gradually increasing as of November 2020 and June 2021, and estimated confirmed cases were 192 million worldwide and approximately 184 thousand in South Korea. The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters have been taking strong countermeasures by implementing level 4 social distancing. However, as the highly infectious COVID-19 variants, such as Delta mutation, have been on the rise, the number of daily confirmed cases in Korea has increased to 1,800. Therefore, the number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases is predicted using ARIMA algorithms to emphasize the severity of COVID-19. In the process, differences are used to remove trends and seasonality, and p, d, and q values are determined and forecasted in ARIMA using MA, AR, autocorrelation functions, and partial autocorrelation functions. Finally, forecast and actual values are compared to evaluate how well it was forecasted.

The Auto Regressive Parameter Estimation and Pattern Classification of EKS Signals for Automatic Diagnosis (심전도 신호의 자동분석을 위한 자기회귀모델 변수추정과 패턴분류)

  • 이윤선;윤형로
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 1988
  • The Auto Regressive Parameter Estimation and Pattern Classification of EKG Signal for Automatic Diagnosis. This paper presents the results from pattern discriminant analysis of an AR (auto regressive) model parameter group, which represents the HRV (heart rate variability) that is being considered as time series data. HRV data was extracted using the correct R-point of the EKG wave that was A/D converted from the I/O port both by hardware and software functions. Data number (N) and optimal (P), which were used for analysis, were determined by using Burg's maximum entropy method and Akaike's Information Criteria test. The representative values were extracted from the distribution of the results. In turn, these values were used as the index for determining the range o( pattern discriminant analysis. By carrying out pattern discriminant analysis, the performance of clustering was checked, creating the text pattern, where the clustering was optimum. The analysis results showed first that the HRV data were considered sufficient to ensure the stationarity of the data; next, that the patern discrimimant analysis was able to discriminate even though the optimal order of each syndrome was dissimilar.

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Wave Height and Downtime Event Forecasting in Harbour with Complex Topography Using Auto-Regressive and Artificial Neural Networks Models (자기회귀 모델과 신경망 모델을 이용한 복잡한 지형 내 항만에서의 파고 및 하역중단 예측)

  • Yi, Jin-Hak;Ryu, Kyong-Ho;Baek, Won-Dae;Jeong, Weon-Mu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.180-188
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    • 2017
  • Recently, as the strength of winds and waves increases due to the climate change, abnormal waves such as swells have been also increased, which results in the increase of downtime events of loading/unloading in a harbour. To reduce the downtime events, breakwaters were constructed in a harbour to improve the tranquility. However, it is also important and useful for efficient port operation by predicting accurately and also quickly the downtime events when the harbour operation is in a limiting condition. In this study, numerical simulations were carried out to calculate the wave conditions based on the forecasted wind data in offshore area/outside harbour and also the long-term observation was carried out to obtain the wave data in a harbour. A forecasting method was designed using an auto-regressive (AR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) models in order to establish the relationship between the wave conditions calculated by wave model (SWAN) in offshore area and observed ones in a harbour. To evaluate the applicability of the proposed method, this method was applied to predict wave heights in a harbour and to forecast the downtime events in Pohang New Harbour with highly complex topography were compared. From the verification study, it was observed that the ANN model was more accurate than the AR model.

A DC-Offset Elimination Algorithm Based on an AR Model (AR모델을 이용한 직류 옵셋 성분 제거 알고리즘)

  • Chang Soo Young;Lee Dong Gyu;Kang Sang Hee
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • summer
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    • pp.289-291
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    • 2004
  • ln this paper, A dc-offset elimination novel algorithm based on an An model is proposed. The algorithm can eliminate dc-offset rapidly than other algorithms. The signal of fault current can be presented as a linear equation combined sinusoidal with exponential signals. Then, the linear equation can be presented an auto-regressive(AR) model and do-offset can be calculated by the equation of AR model. So it is possible to be removed the dc-offset from the original current signal. Performance evaluation of the algorithm was tested on condition that A-phase ground fault on 154kV 25km overhead transmission line.

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Vegetation Classification from Time Series NOAA/AVHRR Data

  • Yasuoka, Yoshifumi;Nakagawa, Ai;Kokubu, Keiko;Pahari, Krishna;Sugita, Mikio;Tamura, Masayuki
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 1999.11a
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    • pp.429-432
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    • 1999
  • Vegetation cover classification is examined based on a time series NOAA/AVHRR data. Time series data analysis methods including Fourier transform, Auto-Regressive (AR) model and temporal signature similarity matching are developed to extract phenological features of vegetation from a time series NDVI data from NOAA/AVHRR and to classify vegetation types. In the Fourier transform method, typical three spectral components expressing the phenological features of vegetation are selected for classification, and also in the AR model method AR coefficients are selected. In the temporal signature similarity matching method a new index evaluating the similarity of temporal pattern of the NDVI is introduced for classification.

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Interval prediction on the sum of binary random variables indexed by a graph

  • Park, Seongoh;Hahn, Kyu S.;Lim, Johan;Son, Won
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.261-272
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

Training-Based Noise Reduction Method Considering Noise Correlation for Visual Quality Improvement of Recorded Analog Video (녹화된 아날로그 영상의 화질 개선을 위한 잡음 연관성을 고려한 학습기반 잡음개선 기법)

  • Kim, Sung-Deuk;Lim, Kyoung-Won
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.28-38
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    • 2010
  • In order to remove the noise contained in recorded analog video, it is important to recognize the real characteristics and strength of the noise. This paper presents an efficient training-based noise reduction method for recorded analog video after analyzing the noise characteristics of analog video captured in a real broadcasting system. First we show that there is non-negligible noise correlation in recorded analog video and describe the limitations of the traditional noise estimation and reduction methods based on additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) model. In addition, we show that auto-regressive (AR) model considering noise correlation can be successfully utilized to estimate and synthesize the noise contained in the recorded analog video, and the estimated AR parameters are utilized in the training-based noise reduction scheme to reduce the video noise. Experiment results show that the proposed method can be efficiently applied for noise reduction of recorded analog video with non-negligible noise correlation.

Evaluation of the Ambient Temperature Effect for the Autonomic Nervous Activity of the Young Adult through the Frequency Analysis of the Heart Rate Variability (심박변이율 주파수 분석을 통한 실내온도에 따른 건강한 성인의 자율신경계 활동 평가)

  • Shin, Hangsik
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.64 no.8
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    • pp.1240-1245
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this paper is to investigate the autonomic nervous system activity in various ambient temperatures. To evaluate autonomic function, we use the frequency domain analysis of heart rate variability such as FFT(fast fourier transformation), AR(Auto-Regressive) model and Lomb-Scargle peridogram. HRV(heart rate variability) is calculated by using ECG recorded from 3 different temperature room which temperature is controlled in 18℃(low), 25℃(mid) and 38℃(high), respectively. Totally 22 subjects were participated in the experiment. In the results, the most significant autonomic changes caused by temperature load were found in the HF(high frequency) component of FFT and AR model. And the HF power is decreased by increasing temperature. Significance level was increased by increasing the difference of temperatures.

Study on the influence of Alpha wave music on working memory based on EEG

  • Xu, Xin;Sun, Jiawen
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.467-479
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    • 2022
  • Working memory (WM), which plays a vital role in daily activities, is a memory system that temporarily stores and processes information when people are engaged in complex cognitive activities. The influence of music on WM has been widely studied. In this work, we conducted a series of n-back memory experiments with different task difficulties and multiple trials on 14 subjects under the condition of no music and Alpha wave leading music. The analysis of behavioral data show that the change of music condition has significant effect on the accuracy and time of memory reaction (p<0.01), both of which are improved after the stimulation of Alpha wave music. Behavioral results also suggest that short-term training has no significant impact on working memory. In the further analysis of electrophysiology (EEG) data recorded in the experiment, auto-regressive (AR) model is employed to extract features, after which an average classification accuracy of 82.9% is achieved with support vector machine (SVM) classifier in distinguishing between before and after WM enhancement. The above findings indicate that Alpha wave leading music can improve WM, and the combination of AR model and SVM classifier is effective in detecting the brain activity changes resulting from music stimulation.