• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.526-541
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• 2016

This research aims to examine the predictive power of multiple online stock message boards, namely, NAVER Finance and PAXNET, which are the most popular stock message boards in South Korea, in stock market activities. If predictive power exists, we then compare the predictive power of multiple online stock message boards. To accomplish the research purpose, we constructed a panel data set with close price, volatility, Spell out acronyms at first mention.PER, and number of posts in 40 companies in three months, and conducted a panel vector auto-regression analysis. The analysis results showed that the number of posts could predict stock market activities. In NAVER Finance, previous number of posts positively influenced volatility on the day. In PAXNET, previous number of posts positively influenced close price, volatility, and PER on the day. Second, we confirmed a difference in the prediction power for stock market activities between multiple online stock message boards. This research is limited by the fact that it only considered 40 companies and three stock market activities. Nevertheless, we found correlation between online stock message board and stock market activities and provided practical implications. We suggest that investors need to focus on specific online message boards to find interesting stock market activities.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.693-702
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• 2020

The present study aims to investigate the impact of tourism growth on human development in Indian economy. For this purpose, the study uses annual data from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes two proxies for tourism growth - tourism receipt and tourist arrivals - and uses human development index calculated by UNDP. The study uses control variables such as government expenditure and trade openness. The study employs auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the cointegrating relationship among the variables in the model. Further, the study also explores the causal nexus between tourism sector and human development by using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test. The result of ARDL bounds test reveals the existence of cointegrating relationship between human development indicators, government expenditure, trade openness, and tourism sector growth. The cointegating coefficient confirms a positive and significant relationship between tourism sector growth and human development in India. The causality result suggests that economic growth and tourism have a positive impact while trade openness has a negative impact on human development in India. The major findings of this study suggest that tourism plays an important role in the socio-economic development of Indian economy in recent years and the country must develop this sector to achieve sustainable development.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권7호
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• pp.15-25
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• 2020

This empirical research aims to identify the relationship between fiscal and financial macroeconomic fundamentals and the volatility of government bonds' borrowing cost in an emerging country - Vietnam. The study covers the period from July 2006 to December 2019 and it is based on a sample of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year government bonds, which represent short-term, medium-term and long-term sovereign bonds in Vietnam, respectively. The Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and its derivatives such as EGARCH and TGARCH are applied on monthly dataset to examine and suggest a significant effect of fiscal and financial determinants of bond yield volatility. The findings of this study indicate that the variation of Vietnam government bond yields is in compliance with the theories of term structure of interest rate. The results also show that a proportion of the variation in the yields on Vietnam government bonds is attributed to the interest rate itself in the previous period, base rate, foreign interest rate, return of the stock market, fiscal deficit, public debt, and current account balance. Our results could be helpful in the macroeconomic policy formulation for policy-makers and in the investment practice for investors regarding the prediction of bond yield volatility.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.121-128
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• 2019

This study analyses the relationship between the real estate market and economic growth in Vietnam, a country with a fledgling real estate market. Research data included economic growth rate and growth rate of the real estate market in Vietnam. The research used quarterly data for the period from 2005: Q1 to 2018: Q1. With the characteristics of Vietnam, there has been no real estate index up to now; therefore, the research used data on growth rates of the real estate market. In addition, the real estate market in Vietnam is still young, so the data series is very short, which is a limitation of this research. With qualitative and quantitative methods especially with the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model; the results of the study indicate new findings, unlike previous studies, including: (1) The real estate market positively impacts Vietnam's economic growth, most noticeably in the second quarter lag and the fourth quarter lag, and then its trend impacts inversely; (2) The real estate market and economic growth in Vietnam have fluctuated over time with many risks that are affected by the past shocks of these factors. From these findings, we proposed some managerial implications for managing the real estate market with economic growth in Vietnam sustainably.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.221-229
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• 2021

This study aims to forecast the exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar by a combination of different models as proposed by Poon and Granger (2003) during the Covid-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we include three uni-variate time series models, i.e., ARIMA, Naïve, Exponential smoothing, and one multivariate model, i.e., NARDL. This is the first of its kind endeavor to combine univariate models along with NARDL to the best of our knowledge. Utilizing monthly data from January 2011 to December 2020, we predict the Chinese Yuan against the US dollar by two combination criteria i.e. var-cor and equal weightage. After finding out the individual accuracy, the models are then assessed through equal weightage and var-cor methods. Our results suggest that Naïve outperforms all individual & combination of time series models. Similarly, the combination of NARDL and Naïve model again outperformed all of the individual as well as combined models except the Naïve model, with the lowest MAPE value of 0764. The results suggesting that the Chinese Yuan exchange rate against the US Dollar is dependent upon the recent observations of the time series. Further evidence shows that the combination of models plays a vital role in forecasting which commensurate with the literature.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.111-122
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• 2021

The main purpose of the present research is to analyze the effects of trade, financial globalization, and technological progress on income inequality in the Indian economy over the period from 1982 to 2018. For this purpose, the study uses economic growth, financial globalization, trade openness, technological development, and economic inequality variables with appropriate proxies. The study employs the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration and VECM based Granger causality approach to estimate both the short-run and long-run relationship and causality among variables. Using the ARDL bounds test, the study finds a long-run co-integrating relationship existing among the variables in the model. The study confirms the existence of a positive and significant impact of technological progress on income inequality. Further, globalization's limited impact reflects two offsetting tendencies; trade globalization is associated with a reduction in income inequality, while financial globalization is related to an increase in inequality. The results of VECM based Granger causality approach further confirm that technological progress, trade, and financial globalization causes income inequality both directly and indirectly through economic growth and inflation. In case of India, the results of this research can significantly facilitate stakeholders and policymakers in devising policies towards effective globalization and technological innovation for inclusive growth.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.113-122
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• 2021

This study aims to investigate the effects of fiscal policy instruments on economic growth in Jordan using annual data from 1970 to 2019, by applying the VAR model (Vector Auto regression) and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study also examines the dynamic relationship among economic variables over time using the Granger casualty test, Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decomposition. The results show that not only the public expenditures have a positive effect on economic growth in Jordan, but also the tax revenues positively affect the economic growth in the short-run, and this is because of using the tax revenues to finance the government activities in Jordan. This effect becomes negative in the long run, and this is explained because the tax seems a source of distortions in the economy, The extreme taxes may cause huge distortions in the economy, and these distortions destroys the purchasing power, the aggregate demand, and supply. More governmental dependence on tax revenues is the main source of tax evasion and less efficiency. The effect of taxation will curb any prosperity in the economy. Therefore, the government should estimate the fair tax rates to generate sufficient revenues to finance the public expenditure required to enhance economic prosperity.

• 정보보호학회논문지
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.1513-1526
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• 2016

금융회사가 전자금융 서비스를 제공하기 시작하면서 전자금융 서비스는 다양화 되었고 전자금융 사용은 지속적으로 증가하고 있다. 이에 금융회사는 안전한 전자금융서비스를 제공하기 위하여 금융 보안정책을 적용하고 있으나 전자금융 사고는 계속해서 지능화되고 증가하고 있는 상황이다. 금융감독기관은 최근 인터넷 전문은행 등장과 핀테크 활성화와 더불어 비대면 실명확인 제도 신설 및 전자금융 거래를 통한 자금이체 시 공인인증서 또는 일회용비밀번호 의무사용 폐지 등의 규정을 개선하여 이용자의 편리함을 추구하는 동시에 금융회사에게는 이상금융거래 탐지 시스템 고도화 및 개선을 통한 불법이체 사고 방지를 권고하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 금융회사 제반 상황에 적합한 블랙리스트기반 자동화 탐지 기법을 제안하고 블랙리스트 정보를 레벨링하여 보안레벨에 따른 블랙리스트기반과 통계모델을 연동한 실시간 이상금융거래 탐지 기법을 제안하며, 기존 전자금융 사고유형 분석을 통한 특징적 패턴에 따른 실시간 이상금융거래 탐지기법의 대응 모델을 제안하고자 한다.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.211-221
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• 2014

이 연구는 중국 보험소비자의 보험업에 대한 신뢰 결정요인을 구조방정식 모형을 통해 살펴보고, 생명보험과 자동차보험 간 보험소비자 신뢰 결정요인에 차이가 있는지를 잠재평균과 다집단분석을 통해 검증하였다. 분석결과, 중국 보험소비자의 보험업 신뢰 결정요인으로 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것은 보험회사의 정직성이었고, 정직성 요인 다음으로는 보험회사가 장래 보험금 지급을 제대로 할 수 있는지를 포괄하는 공신력이 신뢰 결정요인으로 작용하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 배려는 신뢰 결정요인으로서는 통계적으로 유의미하지 않았다. 한편, 보험소비자의 신뢰는 중국 보험시장에서도 추후 재가입이나 주변 사람 추천 등 관계몰입으로 강하게 연결됨을 보였다. 이러한 결과는 앞으로 보험업이 더욱 견고하게 지속 성장하기 위해서는 무엇보다 보험소비자의 신뢰 구축이 긴요하다는 것을 시사해 준다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.913-921
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• 2021

The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Saudi Arabia stock market. The study relied on the data of the daily closing stock market price index Tadawul All Share Index (TASI), and the number of daily cases infected with COVID-19 during the period from March 15, 2020, to August 10, 2020. The study employs the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model, the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models. The results of the correlation matrix and the Impulse Response Function (IRF) show that stock market returns responded negatively to the growth in COVID-19 infected cases during the pandemic. The results of ARCH model confirmed the negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic on KSA stock market returns. The results also showed that the negative market reaction was strong during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study concluded that stock market in KSA responded quickly to the COVID-19 pandemic; the response varies over time according to the stage of the pandemic. However, the Saudi government's response time and size of the stimulus package have played an important role in alleviating the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Saudi Arabia Stock Market.