• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.239-247
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• 2011

국제기후변화협약 및 정부의 저탄소 정책은 기본적으로 과학이 제시한 이산화탄소 증가에 대한 기후민감도에 근거해야 한다. 그러나 기후민감도의 추정치는 현재까지 연구 단위별로 차이가 커서, 이에 대한 과학적 배경, 한계, 전망을 고찰할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 지금까지의 기후민감도에 대한 국내외 연구 결과를 객관적으로 종합하여 검토한다. 기후민감도를 결정하는 것은 대기와 지면의 각종 물리과정에 의한 기후피드백 작용이며, 이 중 특히 태양 단파복사량을 조절하는 구름, 해빙과 관련된 물리과정은 불확실성이 가장 커서, 부정확한 민감도 추정을 야기하는 것으로 보인다. 이 때문에, 최근 인공위성 자료를 이용하여 추정한 기후민감도는 기후모델들이 갖는 범위(대기 중 이산화탄소 2배 증가당 지구평균기온 2-5 K 증가)에 들거나, 그보다 훨씬 작은 값을 갖는다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제25권7호
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• pp.1017-1028
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• 2016

Wind information is one of the major inputs for the prediction of urban air flow using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models. Therefore, the numerical characteristics of the wind data formed at their mother domains should be clarified to predict the urban air flow more precisely. In this study, the formation characteristics of the wind data in the Seoul region were used as the inlet wind information for a CFD based simulation and were analyzed using numerical weather prediction models for weather research and forecasting (WRF). Because air flow over the central part of the Korean peninsula is often controlled not only by synoptic scale westerly winds but also by the westerly sea breeze induced from the Yellow Sea, the westerly wind often dominates the entire Seoul region. Although simulations of wind speed and air temperature gave results that were slightly high and low, respectively, their temporal variation patterns agreed well with the observations. In the analysis of the vertical cross section, the variation of wind speed along the western boundary of Seoul is simpler in a large domain with the highest horizontal resolution as compared to a small domain with the same resolution. A strong convergence of the sea breeze due to precise topography leads to the simplification of the wind pattern. The same tendency was shown in the average vertical profiles of the wind speed. The difference in the simulated wind pattern of two different domains is greater during the night than in the daytime because of atmospheric stability and topographically induced mesoscale forcing.

• 대기
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.599-615
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• 2016

This study investigates the accuracy of short-term ocean predictions during the development of ocean stratification for the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) as well as the effect of atmosphere-ocean coupling on the predictions through a series of sensitive numerical experiments. Model performance is evaluated using the marine meteorological buoys at seas around the Korean peninsular (KP), Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project (TAO) buoys over the tropical Pacific ocean, and ARGO floats data over the western North Pacific for boreal winter (February) and spring (May). Sensitive experiments are conducted using an ocean-atmosphere coupled model (i.e., GloSea5) and an uncoupled ocean model (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean, NEMO) and their results are compared. The verification results revealed an overall good performance for the SST predictions over the tropical Pacific ocean and near the Korean marginal seas, in which the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) were $0.31{\sim}0.45^{\circ}C$ and $0.74{\sim}1.11^{\circ}C$ respectively, except oceanic front regions with large spatial and temporal SST variations (the maximum error reached up to $3^{\circ}C$). The sensitive numerical experiments showed that GloSea5 outperformed NEMO over the tropical Pacific in terms of bias and RMSE analysis, while NEMO outperformed GloSea5 near the KP regions. These results suggest that the atmosphere-ocean coupling substantially influences the short-term ocean forecast over the tropical Pacific, while other factors such as atmospheric forcing and the accuracy of simulated local current are more important than the coupling effect for the KP regions being far from tropics during the development of ocean stratification.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.51-61
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• 2009

In this study we define the two different types of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$, i.e., the eastern Pacific El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ (i.e., EP-El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$) versus the central Pacific El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ (i.e., CP-El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$), during the boreal summer (June-July-August, JJA) and winter (December-January-February, DJF) using the two NINO indices in the tropical Pacific. The two different types of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ significantly differ in terms of the location of the maximum anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. The CP-El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ has been observed more frequently during recent decades compared to the EP-El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$. In addition, our analysis indicates that the statistics of CP-El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ during JJA is closely associated with the warming trend in the central equatorial Pacific. We also examine the different responses of the East Asian marginal SST to the two types of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ during JJA and DJF. The CP-El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ during both JJA and DJF is concurrent with warm SST anomalies around the Korean Peninsula including the East China Sea, which is in contrast to the EP-El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$. Such different responses are associated with the difference in tropics/mid-latitude teleconnections via atmosphere between the two types of El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$. Furthermore, our results indicate that atmospheric diabatic forcing in relation to the precipitation variability is different in the tropical Pacific between the EP-El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and the CP-El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$.

• 한국해안해양공학회지
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.162-181
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• 1990

동수력학모형이 황해 및 동지나해의 SEASAT 고도계 해면자료를 분석하는데 이용되었다. SEASAT 운용기간중 이 해역에서 태풍이 발생한 7월 28일~8월2일, 8월18일~21일 기간이 고려되었다. 해양모형에 필요한 기상외력은 이론 및 경험적인 관련식으로부터 유도되었다. 시공적으로 큰 변화가 있는 이 해역의 해양조석을 산정하기 위해서 M$_2$, S$_2$, $K_1$ 및 $O_1$, 조석의 4개분조가 이용되었으며 지구조석의 영향도 고려되어 위성고도계자료와 통계적인 비교를 위해 시간종속적인 해면변화를 추정하여 해저마찰연구를 수행하였다. 10경우의 SEASAT 궤적으로부터 조사된 해저마찰계수는 0.0023~0.0027의 범위에 있었다.

• 대기
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.155-167
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• 2020

In order to produce more detailed and accurate information of river discharge and freshwater discharge, global high-resolution hydrodynamic model (CaMa-Flood) is applied to an operational land surface model of global seasonal forecast system. In addition, bias correction to grid runoff for the hydrodynamic model is attempted. CaMa-Flood is a river routing model that distributes runoff forcing from a land surface model to oceans or inland seas along continentalscale rivers, which can represent flood stage and river discharge explicitly. The runoff data generated by the land surface model are bias-corrected by using composite runoff data from UNH-GRDC. The impact of bias-correction on the runoff, which is spatially resolved on 0.5° grid, has been evaluated for 1991~2010. It is shown that bias-correction increases runoff by 30% on average over all continents, which is closer to UNH-GRDC. Two experiments with coupled CaMa-Flood are carried out to produce river discharge: one using this bias correction and the other not using. It is found that the experiment adapting bias correction exhibits significant increase of both river discharge over major rivers around the world and continental freshwater discharge into oceans (40% globally), which is closer to GRDC. These preliminary results indicate that the application of CaMa-Flood as well as bias-corrected runoff to the operational global seasonal forecast system is feasible to attain information of surface water cycle from a coupled suite of atmospheric, land surface, and hydrodynamic model.

• 대기
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.35-45
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• 2016

Initialization of the global seasonal forecast system is as much important as the quality of the embedded climate model for the climate prediction in sub-seasonal time scale. Recent studies have emphasized the important role of soil moisture initialization, suggesting a significant increase in the prediction skill particularly in the mid-latitude land area where the influence of sea surface temperature in the tropics is less crucial and the potential predictability is supplemented by land-atmosphere interaction. This study developed a new soil moisture initialization method applicable to the KMA operational seasonal forecasting system. The method includes first the long-term integration of the offline land surface model driven by observed atmospheric forcing and precipitation. This soil moisture reanalysis is given for the initial state in the ensemble seasonal forecasts through a simple anomaly initialization technique to avoid the simulation drift caused by the systematic model bias. To evaluate the impact of the soil moisture initialization, two sets of long-term, 10-member ensemble experiment runs have been conducted for 1996~2009. As a result, the soil moisture initialization improves the prediction skill of surface air temperature significantly at the zero to one month forecast lead (up to ~60 days forecast lead), although the skill increase in precipitation is less significant. This study suggests that improvements of the prediction in the sub-seasonal timescale require the improvement in the quality of initial data as well as the adequate treatment of the model systematic bias.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.147-147
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• 2019

The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models determine the future state of the weather by forcing current weather conditions into the atmospheric models. The NWP models approximate mathematically the physical dynamics by nonlinear differential equations; however these approximations include uncertainties. The errors of the NWP estimations can be related to the initial and boundary conditions and model parameterization. Development in the meteorological forecast models did not solve the issues related to the inevitable biases. In spite of the efforts to incorporate all sources of uncertainty into the forecast, and regardless of the methodologies applied to generate the forecast ensembles, they are still subject to errors and systematic biases. The statistical post-processing increases the accuracy of the forecast data by decreasing the errors. Error prediction of the NWP models which is updating the NWP model outputs or model output statistics is one of the ways to improve the model forecast. The regression methods (including linear, polynomial and scaling regression) are applied to the present study to improve the real time forecast skill. Such post-processing consists of two main steps. Firstly, regression is built between forecast and measurement, available during a certain training period, and secondly, the regression is applied to new forecasts. In this study, the WRF real-time forecast data, in comparison with the observed data, had systematic biases; the errors related to the NWP model forecasts were reflected in the underestimation of the meteorological data forecast by the WRF model. The promising results will indicate that the post-processing techniques applied in this study improved the meteorological forecast data provided by WRF model. A comparison between various bias correction methods will show the strength and weakness of the each methods.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.147-174
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• 2005

본 연구에서는 미 국립대기연구소(NCAR)의 열권-이온권 전기역학적 대순환 모델(TIEGCM)을 이용하여 행성간 자기장(IMF)의 방향과 세기 그리고 고도에 따라 여름철 남반구 고위도 하부 열권의 바람에 작용하는 운동량 강제력을 정량적으로 구하였다. 그리고 이들을 서로 비교 분석함으로써 IMF 조건과 고도에 따른 고위도 하부 열권의 풍계(wind system)를 유지시켜주는 주된 물리적인 과정을 살펴보았다. 고위도 하부 열권(<180km)에서 양($B_y$ > 0.8|$\overline{B}_z$|)또는 음($B_y$ < -0.8|$\overline{B}_z$|)의 IMF By 조건인 경우에 운동량 강제력 차이, 즉 IMF 기준치 ${\neq}$ 0 일 때와 IMF 기준치=0 일 때의 운동량 강제력 차이(difference momentum force)는 자기위도 -80$^{\circ}$에서 최대값을 가지면서 극관과 오로라 영역에 국한된 단순한 형태의 분포를 보인다. 그리고 IMF $B_z$ 성분이 양과 음일 때 강제력 차이의 세기는 비슷하지만 분포양상은 반대방향을 취한다. 한편 IMF $B_z$가 양($B_z$ > 0.3125|$\overline{B}_y$|) 또는 음($B_z$ < -0.3125|$\overline{B}_y$|)인 조건인 경우에는 강제력 차이가 아오로라(subauroral) 위도까지 분포하며 IMF $B_z$가 양 또는 음의 조건일 때 보다 복잡한 구조를 보인다. 그리고 IMF $B_z$가 음인 경우의 강제력 차이가 양인 경우보다 더 크며 반대방향으로 작용한다. 125km 보다 더 높은 고도(>125km)에서 바람차이를 결정하는 주된 강제력은 기압경도력, 전향력, 수평이류 그리고 비발산 성분이 강한 Pedersen 이온항력인 것으로 확인되었다. 고도 약 125km 에서는 이 네 가지 힘에 더불어 비회전 성분이 강한 Hall 이온향력과 극관내 의 연직 이류가 지역과 시간에 따라 바람차이의 형성에 작용한다. 한편 고도 108-125km 에서는 IMF $B_z$ 조건일 경우의 극관영역을 제외하고는 기압경도력, 전향력 그리고 Hall 이온항력이 이 고도에서의 바람차이를 유발시키는 주된 강제력으로 작용한다. 고도 108km 이하에서는 기압경도력과 전향력이 균형을 이루어 지균 운동을 유지시킨다. IMF-$\overline{B}_y$의존 MLT 평균 운동량 강제력들은 이온항력을 제외한 다른 모든 남북성분이 동서성분에 비해 더 강하게 중성대기에 작용하는 것으로 확인되었다. 108-125km의 고도에서 IMF B?가 음인 경우에 이온항력은 하강운동 및 단열압축가열과 관련된 시계방향의 온난순환(warm circulation)을 극관 내에 형성시킨다. 반면 IMF $B_y$가 양인 경우에는 극관 내에 상승운동 및 단열팽창냉각과 관련된 반시계방향의 한랭순환(cold circulation)을 형성시킨다. 이온항력은 IMF $B_z$가 음인 경우에는 새벽영역에 상승운동과 관련된 반시계방향의 한랭순환을, 반면에 IMF $B_z$가 양인 경우에는 새벽영역에 하강운동과 관련된 시계방향의 온난순환을 형성시킨다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.139-149
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• 2013

Anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily through radiative forcing from carbon dioxide, continue to challenge earth's climate. This study quantified $CO_2$ storage and uptake by dominant forest types and age classes in the middle region of Korea. In addition, the role of forest landscapes in reducing atmospheric $CO_2$ against $CO_2$ emissions based on energy consumption was evaluated. Mean $CO_2$ storage and uptake per unit area by woody plants for three forest types and four age classes were estimated applying regression equations derived to quantify $CO_2$ storage and uptake per tree; and computations per soil unit area were also performed. Total $CO_2$ storage and uptake by forest landscapes were estimated by extrapolating $CO_2$ storage and uptake per unit area. Results indicated mean $CO_2$ storage per unit area by woody plants and soils was higher in older age classes for the same forest types, and higher in broadleaved than coniferous forests for the same age classes, with the exception of age class II (11-20 years). $CO_2$ storage by broadleaved forests of age class V (41-50 years) averaged 662.0 t/ha (US$331.0 hundred/ha), highest for all forest types and age classes evaluated. Overall, an increased mean $CO_2$ uptake per unit area by woody plants was evident for older age classes for the same forest types. However, decreased $CO_2$ uptake by broadleaved forests at age class V was observed, compared to classes III and IV with an average of 27.9 t/ha/yr (US$14.0 hundred/ha/yr). Total $CO_2$ storage by woody plants and soils in the study area was equivalent to 3.4 times the annual $CO_2$ emissions, and woody plants annually offset the $CO_2$ emissions by 17.7%. The important roles of plants and soils were associated with 39.1% of total forest area in South Korea, and $CO_2$ emissions comprised 62.2% of the total population. Therefore, development of forest lands may change $CO_2$ sinks into sources. Forest landscape management strategies were explored to maintain or improve forest roles in reducing atmospheric $CO_2$ levels.