• Title/Summary/Keyword: Asymmetric Error Correction Model

Search Result 14, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Price transmission in domestic agricultural markets: the case of retail and wholesale markets of maize in Rwanda

  • Ngango, Jules;Hong, Seungjee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
    • /
    • v.47 no.3
    • /
    • pp.567-576
    • /
    • 2020
  • One of the main challenges receiving much attention in the Rwandan agriculture and food industry in recent decades is the increases in maize prices. Indeed, a rise in maize prices causes higher living expenses for households because maize, which is a major staple food crop, constitutes a significant share of total food consumption among households in Rwanda. The aim of this study was to assess the extent of integration and how prices are transmitted between retail and wholesale markets of domestic maize in Rwanda. This study used monthly data of retail and wholesale prices of maize from January 1995 to December 2019. This empirical investigation was based on a linear cointegration approach and an asymmetric error correction model framework. Using the augmented dickey-fuller residual-based test and the Johansen Maximum Likelihood cointegration test, the results revealed that the retail and wholesale markets of maize are integrated. Hence, prices in these markets do not drift apart in the long run. The results of the Granger causality test revealed that there is a unidirectional causal relationship flowing from wholesale prices to retail prices, i.e., wholesale prices influence retail prices. Accordingly, the results from the asymmetric error correction model confirmed the presence of a positive asymmetric price transmission between wholesale and retail prices of maize in Rwanda. Thus, we suggest that policymakers take a critical look at the causes and factors that may influence asymmetry price transmission.

Causal Relationship among Bioethanol Production, Corn Price, and Beef Price in the U.S.

  • Seok, Jun Ho;Kim, GwanSeon;Kim, Soo-Eun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.27 no.3
    • /
    • pp.521-544
    • /
    • 2018
  • This paper investigates the impact of ethanol mandate on the price relationship between corn and beef using the monthly time-series data from January 2003 through December 2013. In addition, we examine the non-linearity in ethanol, corn, and beef markets. Based on the threshold cointegration test, we find the symmetric relationship in pairs with ethanol production-corn price and ethanol production-beef price whereas there is the asymmetric relationship between prices of corn and beef. Employing the threshold vector error correction and vector error correction models, we also find that the corn price in the U.S is caused by both ethanol production and beef price in a long-run when the beef price is relatively high. On the other hand, the corn price does not cause both ethanol production and beef price in the long run. Findings from this study imply that demanders for corn such as ethanol and beef producers have price leadership on corn producers.

Rockets and Feathers Across Multi-Gasoline Products: Evidence from Error Correction Model (수송용 유류제품의 제품별 비대칭성에 관한 연구: 오차수정모형을 통한 접근)

  • Chang, Yenjae;Kim, Dae-Wook
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.495-516
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study empirically examines how asymmetric price adjustment of the retail gas price happens differently for various oil products, such as high-grade gasoline, regular gasoline, and diesel, by employing asymmetric error correction model within weekly data set from 2010~2015. Our estimation results show that the price adjustment, across the all oil types, predicated on shifting crude oil and wholesale oil prices is asymmetric. In addition, the duration of asymmetry was shorter in high-grade gasoline case than in other oil types. This took place by rapid price adjustment of high-grade gasoline price when faced with both cost increases and decreases, in comparison with regular gasoline and diesel cases. There results were attributed by characteristics of the consumer group and a high retail-wholesale margin of high-grade gasoline.

An Analysis on the Asymmetric Time Varying Spillover Effect between Capesize and Panamax Markets (케이프사이즈와 파나막스 시장간의 비대칭 시간가변 파급효과에 관한 분석)

  • Chung, Sang-Kuck
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.27 no.3
    • /
    • pp.41-64
    • /
    • 2011
  • This article investigates the interrelationships in daily returns using fractionally integrated error correction term and volatilities using constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation GARCH with asymmetries between Capesize and Panamax markets. Our findings are as follows. First, for the fractionally cointegrated error correction model, there is a unidirectional relationship in returns from the Panamax market to the Capesize market, but a bidirectional causal relationship prevails for the traditional error correction models. Second, the coefficients for the error correction term are all statistically significant. Of particular interest are the signs of the estimates for the error correction term, which are all negative for the Capesize return equation and all positive for the Panamax return. Third, there are bidirectional volatility spillovers between both markets and the direction of the information flow seems to be stronger from Panamax to Capesize. Fourth, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significantly positive in the Capesize market, but the Panamax market does not have a significant effect. However, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significant, implying that the leverage effect does exist in the Capesize and Panamax markets.

An Empirical Study on Asymmetric Price Transmissions in the Distribution Channels of Fisheries Market (수산물 시장의 유통단계별 가격전달의 비대칭성에 관한 실증 분석)

  • Lee, Jung-Mi;Kim, Ki-Soo
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
    • /
    • v.41 no.3
    • /
    • pp.59-78
    • /
    • 2010
  • This paper tries to apply the asymmetrical price transmission(APT) behavior observed in the agricultural industry to supply chains of the domestic fishery industry by a statistical manner. The fore mentioned asymmetrical price transmission refers to when price movements in the later stage of the supply chain do not move in a normal or symmetrical manner corresponding to price movements in the earlier stage of the supply chain. Therefore, when the earlier stage price increase and the later stage price increases to a larger degree, it is called positive(+) asymmetry and the opposite behavior is called negative(-) asymmetry. The study examines the data from domestic producers of three fresh fish types, hairtail, mackerel, and cuttlefish, and tries to examine the price asymmetry between the producer or farm, wholesaler, and retail prices via an APT test utilizing unit root, cointegration, and error correction model. The study found, hairtail wholesale and retail pricing bas a negative asymmetric relationship while mackerel has a negative asymmetric pricing relationship at the producer and retail levels of the supply chain. In the case of cuttlefish, all levels of the supply chain showed negative asymmetrical behavior in the supply chain price transmission, meaning the earlier stage price changes are more rapidly and greatly inputted in the later stage of the supply chain pricing. We believe that the reason why the analysis results show negative price asymmetry is due to the uniqueness of fishery products having an important variable such as freshness. If price increases are greater and quicker than price decreases, then consumer demand, which is sensitive to price increases will decrease and subsequently result in the increase of inventory levels, reducing profits for retailers. Also, frozen hairtail, mackerel, and cuttlefish will act as substitute goods to fresh fishery products. Therefore, fresh fishery products have a high demand of price elasticity. When prices increase, demand quickly decreases. Therefore the profit of wholesalers and retailers to decrease, I think this is the main reason of APT in the supply chain of Korea' s fisheries industry.

The Asymmetric Response of Gasoline Prices to International Crude Oil Price Changes Considering Inventories (재고를 고려한 국제원유가격변동에 따른 휘발유 가격의 비대칭성 연구)

  • Bae, Jeeyoung;Kim, Soohyeon;Kim, Moonjung;Oh, Soomin;Heo, Eunnyeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.643-670
    • /
    • 2013
  • This study analyzed the impact of crude oil inventory while gasoline price adjusts to international crude oil price(WTI) fluctuations. We mainly focused on asymmetric relationship between crude oil and petroleum product prices and added oil inventory as an variable, using the error correction model which is based on Borenstein et al.(1997). This paper selected the sample period from January 1988 to December 2012, analyzed the asymmetry of each intervals and the influence of crude oil inventory to the degree of asymmetry changes, both full period and five years period respectively. The results showed that when considering crude oil inventory, existence and degrees of time amount asymmetry varies.

An Effect of Volatility of Crude Oil Price on Asymmetry of Domestic Gasoline Price Adjustment (국제 유가 변동성이 국내 휘발유 가격 비대칭성에 미치는 영향)

  • Nam-Jae Kim;Hyung-Gun Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.351-364
    • /
    • 2023
  • Purpose - This study examines the effects of Dubai oil price and the volatility on the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - Firstly, the study calculates proxies for asymmetry and volatility of each window(every 3-month) by error-correction model and GARCH(1, 1) using daily domestic gas price and Dubai oil price from 2008/04/15 to 2022/12/31. Secondly, the study investigates the effects of the increasing rate of Dubai oil price, volatility, "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. The autoregressive distributed lag regression model is employed for estimations. Findings - The study finds that changes in the increasing rate of Dubai oil price and both types of volatility of Dubai oil price increase asymmetry. While "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies decrease asymmetry. Additionally, the study fails to find that asymmetry in the Korean gasoline market in the estimation with total observations. Research implications or Originality - An increase in Dubai oil price volatility means an increase in cost uncertainty for gas-station owners. Since cost uncertainty is a kind of financial risk, the increase in volatility reinforces the asymmetry. The study provides supporting evidence for the idea.

A Study on Asymmetric Price Adjustment in Domestic Petroleum Market (국내 석유시장에서 비대칭 가격조정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin Hyung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.24 no.3
    • /
    • pp.523-549
    • /
    • 2015
  • This paper investigates an oil refiner's asymmetric behavior in the adjustments of gasoline and diesel prices to changes in his own price and his rivals' prices as well as input costs. An asymmetric error correction model which allows a firm's pricing behavior to the deviation of other firms' prices from their long-run equilibrium level is employed for estimation using weekly data for the period April 2009 to January 2015. Evidence is found that there is a significant degree of asymmetry in the adjustment of wholesale prices to changes in crude oil price. A similar result in regard to the exchange rate is also found by the data. The estimation results for firm's response to changes in other firms' prices indicates that implicit collusion could be more easily exploited in the wholesale petroleum market as results of firms' interaction with each other and anticipation of rivals' pricing behavior. A few refiners show competitive price adjustment in response to the upward deviation of the others' prices from their equilibrium level.

An Empirical Analysis on A Refiner's Asymmetric Gasoline Price Adjustment (정유사 휘발유 공급가격의 비대칭적 가격조정에 대한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Youngduk
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.613-641
    • /
    • 2013
  • This paper uses the error correction model to analyse dynamic gasoline price adjustments of the four refiners. Unlike the existing studies, this model allows a refiner's asymmetric adjustment to changes in the other refiners' prices as well as in its own price and costs. With the estimation results, we can obtain the following findings. First, there are the asymmetric price adjustments to changes in exchange rate and international gasoline price, but showing opposing directions. Second, for most of the refiners, the prices respond immediately to the lagged deviation from the long run equilibrium price, but asymmetrically respond for a few refiners. Third, there are some refiners that adjust their price to the other refiners' price deviation from the long run equilibrium. For some refiners, there are competitive price adjustments to the others' price deviations. These findings imply that a refiner faces inelastic demand, intends to maintain implicitly a relative level of its own price to others, and tends to respond competitively to the others' price deviation from the equilibrium.

A Study on Price Asymmetries in Local Petroleum Markets (석유제품의 가격 비대칭성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin Hyung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.833-854
    • /
    • 2007
  • Output prices tend to respond faster to input price increases than to decreases. The 'rockets and feathers' hypothesis of asymmetric price behavior in petroleum market is tested by a full adjustment error correction model. Using monthly data for the period January 1977 to June 2006, evidence is found that there is a significant degree of asymmetry in the adjustment of wholesale prices to increases and to decreases in crude oil price. A similar hypothesis in regard to the exchange rate is also rejected by the data. Using weekly data over the period examined, evidence of asymmetry for gasoline, diesel and heating oil is also found in the transmission of price changes from wholesale to retail: retail prices increase more quickly in response to the wholesale price increases than to wholesale price decreases.

  • PDF