• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.8 no.10
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• pp.76-87
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• 2008

Prediction of travel time on road network is one of crucial research issue in dynamic route guidance system. A new approach based on Rule-Based classification is proposed for predicting travel time. This approach departs from many existing prediction models in that it explicitly consider traffic patterns during day time as well as week day. We can predict travel time accurately by considering both traffic condition of time range in a day and traffic patterns of vehicles in a week. We compare the proposed method with the existing prediction models like Link-based, Micro-T* and Switching model. It is also revealed that proposed method can reduce MARE (mean absolute relative error) significantly, compared with the existing predictors.

• Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.267-274
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• 2008

A neural network is a modeling technique useful for finding out hidden patterns from data through repetitive learning process and for predicting target values for new data. In this study, we built multilayer perceptron neural networks for prediction of the students' computer literacy based on their personal characteristics, home and social environment, and academic record of other subjects. Prediction performance of the network was compared with that of a widely used prediction method, the regression model. From our experiments, it was found that personal characteristic features best explained computer proficiency level of a student, whereas the features of home and social environment resulted in the worse prediction accuracy among all. Moreover, the developed neural network model produced far more accurate prediction than the regression model.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.25-37
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• 2020

As social costs of traffic congestion increase, various studies are underway to predict road speed. In order to improve the accuracy of road speed prediction, unexpected traffic situations need to be considered. In this paper, we propose a road speed prediction scheme considering traffic incidents affecting road speed. We use not only the speed data of the target road but also the speed data of the connected roads to reflect the impact of the connected roads. We also analyze the amount of speed change to predict the traffic congestion caused by traffic incidents. We use the speed data of connected roads and target road with input data to predict road speed in the first place. To reduce the prediction error caused by breaking the regular road flow due to traffic incidents, we predict the final road speed by applying event weights. It is shown through various performance evaluations that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

• The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.129-137
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• 2005

Criticality prediction models that identify fault-prone spots using system design specifications play an important role in reducing development costs of large systems such as telecommunication systems. Many criticality prediction models using complexity metrics have been suggested. But most of them need training data set for model training. And they are classification models that can only classify design entities into fault-prone group and non fault-prone group. To solve this problem, this paper builds a new prediction model, HMM, using two styled hybrid metrics. HMM has strong point that it does not need training data and it enables comparison between design entities by criticality. HMM is implemented and compared with a well-known prediction model, BackPropagation neural network Model(BPM), considering internal characteristics and accuracy of prediction.

• Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.43-51
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• 2024

Dynamic responses of nuclear power plant structure subjected to earthquake loads should be carefully investigated for safety. Because nuclear power plant structure are usually constructed by material of reinforced concrete, the aging deterioration of R.C. have no small effect on structural behavior of nuclear power plant structure. Therefore, aging deterioration of R.C. nuclear power plant structure should be considered for exact prediction of seismic responses of the structure. In this study, a machine learning model for seismic response prediction of nuclear power plant structure was developed by considering aging deterioration. The OPR-1000 was selected as an example structure for numerical simulation. The OPR-1000 was originally designated as the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant (KSNP), and was re-designated as the OPR-1000 in 2005 for foreign sales. 500 artificial ground motions were generated based on site characteristics of Korea. Elastic modulus, damping ratio, poisson's ratio and density were selected to consider material property variation due to aging deterioration. Six machine learning algorithms such as, Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were used t o construct seispic response prediction model. 13 intensity measures and 4 material properties were used input parameters of the training database. Performance evaluation was performed using metrics like root mean square error, mean square error, mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination. The optimization of hyperparameters was achieved through k-fold cross-validation and grid search techniques. The analysis results show that neural networks present good prediction performance considering aging deterioration.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.277-292
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• 2005

This paper uses a data mining approach to develop bankruptcy prediction models suitable for traditional (off-line) companies and electronic (on-line) companies. It observes the differences in the composition prediction models between these two types of companies and provides interpretation of bankruptcy classifications. The bankruptcy prediction models revealed the major variables in predicting bankruptcy to be 'cash flow to total assets' and 'gross value-added to net sales' for traditional off-line companies while 'cash flow to liabilities','gross value-added to net sales', and 'current ratio' for electronic companies. The accuracy rates of final prediction models for traditional off-line and electronic companies were found to be $84.7\%\;and\;82.4\%$, respectively. When the model for traditional off-line companies was applied for electronic companies, prediction accuracy dropped significantly in the case of bankruptcy classification (from $70.4\%\;to\;45.2\%$) at the level of a blind guess ($41.30\%$). Therefore, the need for different models for traditional off-line and electronic companies is justified.

• Animal Bioscience
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.306-311
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• 2021

Objective: The objectives were to develop prediction equations for digestible energy (DE) and metabolizable energy (ME) of feed ingredients and diets for pigs based on chemical composition and to evaluate the accuracy of the equations using in vivo data. Methods: A total of 734 data points from 81 experiments were employed to develop prediction equations for DE and ME in feed ingredients and diets. The CORR procedure of SAS was used to determine correlation coefficients between chemical components and energy concentrations and the REG procedure was used to generate prediction equations. Developed equations were tested for the accuracy according to the regression analysis using in vivo data. Results: The DE and ME in feed ingredients and diets were most negatively correlated with acid detergent fiber or neutral detergent fiber (NDF; r = -0.46 to r = -0.67; p<0.05). Three prediction equations for feed ingredients reflected in vivo data well as follows: DE = 728+0.76×gross energy (GE)-25.18×NDF (R2 = 0.64); ME = 965+0.66×GE-24.62×NDF (R2 = 0.60); ME = 1,133+0.65×GE-29.05×ash-23.17×NDF (R2 = 0.67). Conclusion: In conclusion, the equations suggested in the current study would predict energy concentration in feed ingredients and diets.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.399-407
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• 2021

Stock movement is difficult to predict because it has dynamic characteristics and is influenced by many factors. Even so, there are some approaches to predict stock price movements, namely technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and sentiment analysis. Many researches have tried to predict stock price movement by utilizing these analysis techniques. However, the results obtained are varied and inconsistent depending on the variables and object used. This is because stock price movement is influenced by a variety of factors, and it is likely that those studies did not cover all of them. One of which is that no research considers the use of fundamental analysis in terms of currency exchange rates and the use of foreign stock price index movement related to the technical analysis. This research aims to predict stock price movements in Indonesia based on sentiment analysis, technical analysis, and fundamental analysis using Support Vector Machine. The result obtained has a prediction accuracy rate of 65,33% on an average. The inclusion of currency exchange rate and foreign stock price index movement as a predictor in this research which can increase average prediction accuracy rate by 11.78% compared to the prediction without using these two variables which only results in average prediction accuracy rate of 53.55%.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.6
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• pp.191-209
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• 2021

In this paper, various time series analysis models and machine learning models are presented for long-term prediction of export growth rate, and the prediction performance is compared and reviewed by RMSE and MAE. Export growth rate is one of the major economic indicators to evaluate the economic status. And It is also used to predict economic forecast. The export growth rate may have a negative (-) value as well as a positive (+) value. Therefore, Instead of using the ReLU function, which is often used for time series prediction of deep learning models, the PReLU function, which can have a negative (-) value as an output value, was used as the activation function of deep learning models. The time series prediction performance of each model for three types of data was compared and reviewed. The forecast data of long-term prediction of export growth rate was deduced by three forecast methods such as a fixed forecast method, a recursive forecast method and a rolling forecast method. As a result of the forecast, the traditional time series analysis model, ARDL, showed excellent performance, but as the time period of learning data increases, the performance of machine learning models including LSTM was relatively improved.

• Journal of Wind Energy
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.10-22
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• 2024

This research is a comprehensive analysis of wind power prediction sensitivity using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning neural network model, accounting for the inherent uncertainties in wind speed estimation. Utilizing a year's worth of operational data from an operational wind farm, the study forecasts the power output of both individual wind turbines and the farm collectively. Predictions were made daily at intervals of 10 minutes and 1 hour over a span of three months. The model's forecast accuracy was evaluated by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE), normalized RMSE (NRMSE), and correlation coefficients with actual power output data. Moreover, the research investigated how inaccuracies in wind speed inputs affect the power prediction sensitivity of the model. By simulating wind speed errors within a normal distribution range of 1% to 15%, the study analyzed their influence on the accuracy of power predictions. This investigation provided insights into the required wind speed prediction error rate to achieve an 8% power prediction error threshold, meeting the incentive standards for forecasting systems in renewable energy generation.