• Genomics & Informatics
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.138-148
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• 2016

The success of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has enabled us to improve risk assessment and provide novel genetic variants for diagnosis, prevention, and treatment. However, most variants discovered by GWASs have been reported to have very small effect sizes on complex human diseases, which has been a big hurdle in building risk prediction models. Recently, many statistical approaches based on penalized regression have been developed to solve the "large p and small n" problem. In this report, we evaluated the performance of several statistical methods for predicting a binary trait: stepwise logistic regression (SLR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Elastic-Net (EN). We first built a prediction model by combining variable selection and prediction methods for type 2 diabetes using Affymetrix Genome-Wide Human SNP Array 5.0 from the Korean Association Resource project. We assessed the risk prediction performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the internal and external validation datasets. In the internal validation, SLR-LASSO and SLR-EN tended to yield more accurate predictions than other combinations. During the external validation, the SLR-SLR and SLR-EN combinations achieved the highest AUC of 0.726. We propose these combinations as a potentially powerful risk prediction model for type 2 diabetes.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.149-159
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• 2016

With the success of the genome-wide association studies (GWASs), many candidate loci for complex human diseases have been reported in the GWAS catalog. Recently, many disease prediction models based on penalized regression or statistical learning methods were proposed using candidate causal variants from significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms of GWASs. However, there have been only a few systematic studies comparing existing methods. In this study, we first constructed risk prediction models, such as stepwise linear regression (SLR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Elastic-Net (EN), using a GWAS chip and GWAS catalog. We then compared the prediction accuracy by calculating the mean square error (MSE) value on data from the Korea Association Resource (KARE) with body mass index. Our results show that SLR provides a smaller MSE value than the other methods, while the numbers of selected variables in each model were similar.

• Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.1-5
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• 1985

In the flood prediction research, it is pointed out that the difficulty of flood prediction is the frequently experienced overestimation of flood peak. That is caused by the rainfall prediction difficulty and the nonlinearity of hydrological phenomena. Even though the former reason will remain still unsolved, but the latter one can be possibly resolved the method of the AMRA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) model for each runoff component as developed by Dr. Hino and Dr. Hasebe. The principle of the method consists of separating though the numerical filters the total runoff time series into long-term, intermediate and short-term components, or ground water flow, interflow, and surface flow components. As a total system, a hydrological system is a non-linear one. However, once it is separated into two or three subsystems, each subsystem may be treated as a linear system. Also the rainfall components into each subsystem a estimated inversely from the runoff component which is separated from the observed flood. That is why flood prediction can be done without rainfall data. In the prediction of surface flow, the Kalman filter will be applicable but this paper shows only impulse function method.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.165-165
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• 2023

Streamflow prediction is a critical task in water resources management and essential for planning and decision-making purposes. However, the streamflow prediction is challenging due to the complexity and non-linear nature of hydrological processes. The transfer learning is a powerful technique that enables a model to transfer knowledge from a source domain to a target domain, improving model performance with limited data in the target domain. In this study, we apply the transfer learning using the Informer model, which is a state-of-the-art deep learning model for streamflow prediction. The model was trained on a large-scale hydrological dataset in the source basin and then fine-tuned using a smaller dataset available in the target basin to predict the streamflow in the target basin. The results demonstrate that transfer learning using the Informer model significantly outperforms the traditional machine learning models and even other deep learning models for streamflow prediction, especially when the target domain has limited data. Moreover, the results indicate the effectiveness of streamflow prediction when knowledge transfer is used to improve the generalizability of hydrologic models in data-sparse regions.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.463-468
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• 2011

Context prediction methods have been developed in two ways - one is a prediction for discrete context and the other is for continuous context. As most of the prediction methods have been used with prediction algorithms in specific domains suitable to the environment and characteristics of contexts, it is difficult to conduct a prediction for a user's context which is based on various environments and characteristics. This study suggests a context prediction method available for both discrete and continuous contexts without being limited to the characteristics of a specific domain or context. For this, we conducted a context prediction based on sequence matching by generating sequences from contexts in consideration of association rules between context attributes and by applying variable weights according to each context attribute. Simulations for discrete and continuous contexts were conducted to evaluate proposed methods and the results showed that the methods produced a similar performance to existing prediction methods with a prediction accuracy of 80.12% in discrete context and 81.43% in continuous context.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.208-208
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• 2022

Recently, the frequency of abnormal weather due to complex factors such as global warming is increasing frequently. From the past rainfall patterns, it is evident that climate change is causing irregular rainfall patterns. This phenomenon causes difficulty in predicting rainfall and makes it difficult to prevent and cope with natural disasters, casuing human and property damages. Therefore, accurate rainfall estimation and rainfall occurrence time prediction could be one of the ways to prevent and mitigate damage caused by flood and drought disasters. However, rainfall prediction has a lot of uncertainty, so it is necessary to understand and reduce this uncertainty. In addition, when accurate rainfall prediction is applied to the rainfall-runoff model, the accuracy of the runoff prediction can be improved. In this regard, this study aims to increase the reliability of rainfall prediction by analyzing the uncertainty of the Korean rainfall ensemble prediction data and the outflow analysis model using the Limited Area ENsemble (LENS) and the Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) models. First, the possibility of improving rainfall prediction ability is reviewed using the QM (Quantile Mapping) technique among the bias correction techniques. Then, the GRM parameter calibration was performed twice, and the likelihood-parameter applicability evaluation and uncertainty analysis were performed using R², NSE, PBIAS, and Log-normal. The rainfall prediction data were applied to the rainfall-runoff model and evaluated before and after calibration. It is expected that more reliable flood prediction will be possible by reducing uncertainty in rainfall ensemble data when applying to the runoff model in selecting behavioral models for user uncertainty analysis. Also, it can be used as a basis of flood prediction research by integrating other parameters such as geological characteristics and rainfall events.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.183-183
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• 2021

Deep learning methods and their application have become an essential part of prediction and modeling in water-related research areas, including hydrological processes, climate change, etc. It is known that application of deep learning leads to high availability of data sources in hydrology, which shows its usefulness in analysis of precipitation, runoff, groundwater level, evapotranspiration, and so on. However, there is still a limitation on microclimate analysis and prediction with deep learning methods because of deficiency of gauge-based data and shortcomings of existing technologies. In this study, a real-time rainfall prediction model was developed from a sky image data set with convolutional neural networks (CNNs). These daily image data were collected at Chung-Ang University and Korea University. For high accuracy of the proposed model, it considers data classification, image processing, ratio adjustment of no-rain data. Rainfall prediction data were compared with minutely rainfall data at rain gauge stations close to image sensors. It indicates that the proposed model could offer an interpolation of current rainfall observation system and have large potential to fill an observation gap. Information from small-scaled areas leads to advance in accurate weather forecasting and hydrological modeling at a micro scale.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.245-256
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• 2016

Prediction of TBM performance is very important for machine selection, and for reliable estimation of construction cost and period. The purpose of this research is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models for TBM performance and applied methodology. Based on the solid literature review since 2000, a classification system of TBM performance prediction model is proposed in this study. Classification system suggested in this study can be divided into two stages: selection of input parameter and application of prediction techniques. We also analyzed input and output parameters for prediction model and frequency of use. Lastly, the future research and development trend of TBM performance prediction is suggested.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.523-533
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• 2018

The objective of this study is to analyze uncertainties of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method for model parameters and input data. ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) and BAYES-ESP (Bayesian-ESP) based on ABCD rainfall-runoff model were selected as streamflow prediction method. GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) was applied for the analysis of parameter uncertainty. The analysis of input uncertainty was performed according to the duration of meteorological scenarios for ESP. The result showed that parameter uncertainty was much more significant than input uncertainty for the ensemble-based streamflow prediction. It also indicated that the duration of observed meteorological data was appropriate to using more than 20 years. And the BAYES-ESP was effective to reduce uncertainty of ESP method. It is concluded that this analysis is meaningful for elaborating characteristics of ESP method and error factors of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.937-943
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• 2000

Data mining usually deal with undesigned massive data containing many variables for which their characteristics and association rules are unknown, therefore it is actually not easy to interpret the results of analysis. In this paper, it is shown that decision tree can be very useful in interpreting data mining prediction model using two real examples.