• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제18권2호
• /
• pp.187-212
• /
• 2014

The purpose of this paper is to examine the equity market crisis contagion in major Asian economic markets. A comparative assessment of Asian markets during the Asian Financial Crisis and Global Financial crisis may clearly identify the changing nature of long term integration of major Asian markets. The selection criteria of specific Asian markets of different peripheries depend particularly on the roles and structure of these markets. The impact of the global financial contagion and the lingering financial linkage in the aftermath of crisis will explain the reaction of the majority of Asian markets to global linkage. While majority of the studies focused on dynamic short term association in European and MENA contagions in the post global financial crisis period; after the global financial crisis, attention paid to long term Asian contagion adds new perspective to hitherto disorganized theories.

• 동남아시아연구
• /
• 제20권3호
• /
• pp.41-64
• /
• 2010

The recent global financial crisis triggered by the sub-prime mortgage debacle in the United States hit hard most ASEAN countries that have just recovered from the unprecedented economic crisis ten years ago. This paper, using individual time-series and panel data from 1990 to 2009, intends to investigate and compare the impacts of the two aforementioned economic crises on trade in the four developing ASEAN countries that encompass Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In doing so, the paper traces the behaviors of main macroeconomic variables before and after the crises on graphs, and then estimates classical export and import demand functions that include real exchange rate, home and foreign GDPs as explanatory variables. In the estimation functions, two dummy variables are added to consider the effects of the two economic crises separately. Individual country data analyses reveal that by and large the 1997 economic crisis seems hit those ASEAN countries' exports and imports harder than the recent global financial crisis. Surprisingly the recent financial crisis turns out more or less statistically insignificant for those countries' export and import performances. The fixed effect model estimation using panel data of those four ASEAN countries also shows that the 1997 economic crisis had affected exports and imports of those countries negatively while the recent global financial crisis was not statistically significant. These results indicate that overall the effect from the 1997 crisis was more devastating than that of the recent global crisis for those ASEAN countries.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제22권1호
• /
• pp.55-73
• /
• 2018

The substantial slowdown of economic growth since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 is rekindling debate on whether developing Asia should use fiscal expansion to boost aggregate demand. A key factor in the debate is the effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy in the region. The global crisis, as well as the fiscal stimulus packages implemented by developing Asian countries at that time, give some clues to this important issue. The region weathered the global crisis well and experienced a robust V-shaped recovery. According to conventional wisdom, the fiscal stimulus packages put in place by Asian governments played a key role in the region's recovery. The central objective of this paper is to empirically test this wisdom by using cross-country panel data. Our main finding is that the stimulus has had a limited but positive impact on developing Asia's output during the global crisis. This lends some support to the notion that countercyclical fiscal policy can help the region cope with severe external shocks. The broader, more fundamental implication for regional policymakers is that the region's long-standing commitment to fiscal discipline can yield significant benefits beyond macroeconomic stability. An important consequence of this commitment - relatively healthy fiscal balance sheets - enabled the region's governments to quickly and decisively embark upon fiscal stimulus programs.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제19권4호
• /
• pp.381-408
• /
• 2015

This paper investigates a link between the significant decline in the growth of domestic demand and the dampened ripple effects from the export sector in Korea since the East Asian financial crisis. The dampened ripple effects are closely linked to the changed investment behaviors of the Korean large-sized exporting firms since the crisis: they do not invest in their export earnings any more to create new industries; they tend to use more foreign value added contents for their exports and to increase outward direct investment by actively participating in global value chains. The paper also examines a link between the growth of domestic demand and the growth of household disposable income and presents reasons for the decline in the growth of household disposable income since the East Asian financial crisis.

• 토지주택연구
• /
• 제4권1호
• /
• pp.23-31
• /
• 2013

The regional economic crises in the late 1990s and the global economic crisis in the late 2000s had reduced the differences in housing policies among the major Asian economies. This paper attempts to explain and compare housing welfare policy shifts between subsidizing home owning and subsidized renting from the perspectives of the economic and social roles of housing, the lock-in effect of policy processes, and the welfare provision strategy of the East Asian economies. It argues that the impact of economic crises on housing welfare policy in East Asia depended on the duration and the intensity of the crisis and the length and severity of the subsequent economic depression. Another important factor was the role of housing in the economic and social development, especially whether housing market development was considered as an engine of economic growth or revival, and whether the tools of housing policy caused the economic crisis. The loss of impetus for home ownership drive and the new emphasis on rental subsidy provision are new policy trends. Nonetheless, the economic revival since mid-2009 has caused the re-introduction of home ownership subsidies for quenching the housing affordability problems and enhancing home ownership making use of the strong economic conditions.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제20권2호
• /
• pp.169-190
• /
• 2016

This paper tests the weak-form efficient market hypothesis for Korean industry-sorted portfolios. Based on a panel variance ratio approach, we find significant mean reversion of stock returns over long horizons in the pre Asian currency crisis period but little evidence in the post-crisis period. Our empirical findings are consistent with the fact that Korea accelerated its integration with international financial market by implementing extensive capital liberalization since the crisis.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제26권2호
• /
• pp.171-176
• /
• 2022

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제18권1호
• /
• pp.3-27
• /
• 2014

This paper examines the effects of financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of daily exchange returns focusing on the Asian crisis in 97-98 and the Global crisis in 08-09. By using the daily KRW-USD and JPY-USD exchange rates which have different trading regions and volumes, this paper first applies both the parametric FIGARCH model and the semi-parametric Local Whittle method to estimate the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns and the temporally aggregated returns of the two exchange rates. Then it compares the effects of the two financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns. The estimation results reflect that the long memory volatility dependency of the KRW-USD is generally greater than that of the JPY-USD returns and the long memory dependency of the two returns appears to be invariant to temporal aggregation. And, the two financial crises appear to affect the volatility dynamics of all the returns by inducing greater long memory dependency in the volatility process of the exchange returns, but the degree of the effects of the two crises seems to be different on the exchange rates.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제17권4호
• /
• pp.361-383
• /
• 2013

We find that institutional quality of an individual country was highly and significantly correlated with its economic performance in the euro area. We argue that governance reforms proposed at present do not suffice to resolving the fundamental problems of the EMU governance system unless disparities of institutional quality in member states are dissolved. Regarding regional integration, East Asia is far behind the Eurozone not only in institutional elements of the governance system but also in institutional quality at the level of individual nations.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제19권4호
• /
• pp.357-379
• /
• 2015

We investigate interconnectedness and the contagion effect of default risk in Asian sovereign CDS markets since the global financial crisis. Using dynamic conditional correlation analysis, we find that there are significant co-movements in Asian sovereign CDS markets; that such co-movements tend to be larger between developing countries than between developed and developing countries; and that in the co-movements intra-regional nature is stronger than inter-regional nature. With the Spillover Index model, we measure contagion probabilities of sovereign default risk in CDS markets of seven Asian countries and find evidence of contagion effects among six of them; Japan is the exception. In addition, we find that these six countries are affected more by cross-market spillovers than by their own-market spillovers. Furthermore, a rolling-sample analysis reveals that contagion in the Asian sovereign CDS markets expands during episodes of extreme economic and financial distress, such as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the European financial crisis, and the US-credit downgrade.