• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.101-107
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• 2014

With the development of online service, recent forms of databases have been changed from static database structures to dynamic stream database structures. Previous data mining techniques have been used as tools of decision making such as establishment of marketing strategies and DNA analyses. However, the capability to analyze real-time data more quickly is necessary in the recent interesting areas such as sensor network, robotics, and artificial intelligence. Landmark window-based frequent pattern mining, one of the stream mining approaches, performs mining operations with respect to parts of databases or each transaction of them, instead of all the data. In this paper, we analyze and evaluate the techniques of the well-known landmark window-based frequent pattern mining algorithms, called Lossy counting and hMiner. When Lossy counting mines frequent patterns from a set of new transactions, it performs union operations between the previous and current mining results. hMiner, which is a state-of-the-art algorithm based on the landmark window model, conducts mining operations whenever a new transaction occurs. Since hMiner extracts frequent patterns as soon as a new transaction is entered, we can obtain the latest mining results reflecting real-time information. For this reason, such algorithms are also called online mining approaches. We evaluate and compare the performance of the primitive algorithm, Lossy counting and the latest one, hMiner. As the criteria of our performance analysis, we first consider algorithms' total runtime and average processing time per transaction. In addition, to compare the efficiency of storage structures between them, their maximum memory usage is also evaluated. Lastly, we show how stably the two algorithms conduct their mining works with respect to the databases that feature gradually increasing items. With respect to the evaluation results of mining time and transaction processing, hMiner has higher speed than that of Lossy counting. Since hMiner stores candidate frequent patterns in a hash method, it can directly access candidate frequent patterns. Meanwhile, Lossy counting stores them in a lattice manner; thus, it has to search for multiple nodes in order to access the candidate frequent patterns. On the other hand, hMiner shows worse performance than that of Lossy counting in terms of maximum memory usage. hMiner should have all of the information for candidate frequent patterns to store them to hash's buckets, while Lossy counting stores them, reducing their information by using the lattice method. Since the storage of Lossy counting can share items concurrently included in multiple patterns, its memory usage is more efficient than that of hMiner. However, hMiner presents better efficiency than that of Lossy counting with respect to scalability evaluation due to the following reasons. If the number of items is increased, shared items are decreased in contrast; thereby, Lossy counting's memory efficiency is weakened. Furthermore, if the number of transactions becomes higher, its pruning effect becomes worse. From the experimental results, we can determine that the landmark window-based frequent pattern mining algorithms are suitable for real-time systems although they require a significant amount of memory. Hence, we need to improve their data structures more efficiently in order to utilize them additionally in resource-constrained environments such as WSN(Wireless sensor network).

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.17-23
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• 2020

Biometric information indicating measurement items related to human characteristics has attracted great attention as security technology with high reliability since there is no fear of theft or loss. Among these biometric information, fingerprints are mainly used in fields such as identity verification and identification. If there is a problem such as a wound, wrinkle, or moisture that is difficult to authenticate to the fingerprint image when identifying the identity, the fingerprint expert can identify the problem with the fingerprint directly through the preprocessing step, and apply the image processing algorithm appropriate to the problem. Solve the problem. In this case, by implementing artificial intelligence software that distinguishes fingerprint images with cuts and wrinkles on the fingerprint, it is easy to check whether there are cuts or wrinkles, and by selecting an appropriate algorithm, the fingerprint image can be easily improved. In this study, we developed a total of 17,080 fingerprint databases by acquiring all finger prints of 1,010 students from the Royal University of Cambodia, 600 Sokoto open data sets, and 98 Korean students. In order to determine if there are any injuries or wrinkles in the built database, criteria were established, and the data were validated by experts. The training and test datasets consisted of Cambodian data and Sokoto data, and the ratio was set to 8: 2. The data of 98 Korean students were set up as a validation data set. Using the constructed data set, five CNN-based architectures such as Classic CNN, AlexNet, VGG-16, Resnet50, and Yolo v3 were implemented. A study was conducted to find the model that performed best on the readings. Among the five architectures, ResNet50 showed the best performance with 81.51%.

• Communications of Mathematical Education
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.233-256
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• 2023

This study conducted foundational research to derive ways to use ChatGPT in mathematics education by analyzing ChatGPT's responses to questions from the National Assessment of Educational Achievement (NAEA) and the College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT). ChatGPT, a generative artificial intelligence model, has gained attention in various fields, and there is a growing demand for its use in education as the number of users rapidly increases. To the best of our knowledge, there are very few reported cases of educational studies utilizing ChatGPT. In this study, we analyzed ChatGPT 3.5 responses to questions from the three-year National Assessment of Educational Achievement and the College Scholastic Ability Test, categorizing them based on the percentage of correct answers, the accuracy of the solution process, and types of errors. The correct answer rates for ChatGPT in the National Assessment of Educational Achievement and the College Scholastic Ability Test questions were 37.1% and 15.97%, respectively. The accuracy of ChatGPT's solution process was calculated as 3.44 for the National Assessment of Educational Achievement and 2.49 for the College Scholastic Ability Test. Errors in solving math problems with ChatGPT were classified into procedural and functional errors. Procedural errors referred to mistakes in connecting expressions to the next step or in calculations, while functional errors were related to how ChatGPT recognized, judged, and outputted text. This analysis suggests that relying solely on the percentage of correct answers should not be the criterion for assessing ChatGPT's mathematical performance, but rather a combination of the accuracy of the solution process and types of errors should be considered.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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• 2023.04a
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• pp.7-7
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• 2023

Currently, the main technologies of various fourth industries are big data, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, blockchain, mixed reality (MR), and drones. In particular, "digital twin," which has recently become a global technological trend, is a concept of a virtual model that is expressed equally in physical objects and computers. By creating and simulating a Digital twin of software-virtualized assets instead of real physical assets, accurate information about the characteristics of real farming (current state, agricultural productivity, agricultural work scenarios, etc.) can be obtained. This study aims to streamline agricultural work through automatic water management, remote growth forecasting, drone control, and pest forecasting through the operation of an integrated control system by constructing digital twin data on the main production area of the nojinot industry and designing and building a smart farm complex. In addition, it aims to distribute digital environmental control agriculture in Korea that can reduce labor and improve crop productivity by minimizing environmental load through the use of appropriate amounts of fertilizers and pesticides through big data analysis. These open-field agricultural technologies can reduce labor through digital farming and cultivation management, optimize water use and prevent soil pollution in preparation for climate change, and quantitative growth management of open-field crops by securing digital data for the national cultivation environment. It is also a way to directly implement carbon-neutral RED++ activities by improving agricultural productivity. The analysis and prediction of growth status through the acquisition of the acquired high-precision and high-definition image-based crop growth data are very effective in digital farming work management. The Southern Crop Department of the National Institute of Food Science conducted research and development on various types of open-field agricultural smart farms such as underground point and underground drainage. In particular, from this year, commercialization is underway in earnest through the establishment of smart farm facilities and technology distribution for agricultural technology complexes across the country. In this study, we would like to describe the case of establishing the agricultural field that combines digital twin technology and open-field agricultural smart farm technology and future utilization plans.