• Strategy21
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• 통권40호
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• pp.115-130
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• 2016

The security environment surrounding the East Asian seas is rapidly changing due to the naval arms race among coastal states. The arms race is likely to worsen the security dilemma of the countries involved, thus increasing the chances for armed conflicts. It is too early to tell how the contemporary naval arms race in the region will evolve. But, for sure, the level of uncertainty is increasingly becoming high and intense. At the same time, there is emerging a legal warfare or lawfare among the rival countries. In particular, the United States and China have been involved in a serious debate about the nature and scope of the right of innocent passage and freedom of navigation in other countries' maritime zones. In collaboration with its regional allies, the United States has also put normative pressures on China with its excessive claims in the South China Sea. The latest arbitral tribunal case between the Philippines and China illustrates the point. With both arms race and normative competition in play, the future of East Asian maritime security will remain very complex and uncertain.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.87-98
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• 2002

A competitive coevolutionary algorithm is a probabilistic search method that imitates coevolution process through evolutionary arms race. The algorithm has been used to solve adversarial problems. In the algorithms, the selection of competitors is needed to evaluate the fitness of an individual. The goal of this study is to compare and analyze several competition strategies in terms of solution quality, convergence speed, balance between competitive coevolving species, population diversity, etc. With two types of test-bed problems, game problems and solution-test problems, extensive experiments are carried out. In the game problems, sampling strategies based on fitness have a risk of providing bad solutions due to evolutionary unbalance between species. On the other hand, in the solution-test problems, evolutionary unbalance does not appear in any strategies and the strategies using information about competition results are efficient in solution quality. The experimental results indicate that the tournament competition can progress an evolutionary arms race and then is successful from the viewpoint of evolutionary computation.

• Strategy21
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• 통권43호
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• pp.125-174
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• 2018

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the status of naval arms race in Northeast Asia. To this end, the scope of the research was limited to national security strategies, maritime strategies and naval strengthening of the United States, China, Russia and Japan. The major powers' active maritime strategies and naval arms race give some strategic implications to the Republic of Korea Navy as follows. First, China and Japan, unlike the past, are actively using submarines in offshore waters including the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, the ROK Navy must successfully promote the Jangbogo-III-class submarine, which is currently constructed, and get a nuclear-powered submarine and P-8 MPA capable of long-range and long-time operations to enhance ASW capability. Second, North Korea's current building submarines capable of loading SLBMs and SLBMs are a new threat to the ROK Navy. The current building KAMD, which focuses on terminal phase defense, cannot effectively respond to North Korea's SLBMs and should be converted to a multi-layered defense system including SM-3 at a mid-course phase. Third, as China militarizes the South China Sea, the instability of the South China Sea is growing. Therefore, the ROK Navy should strengthen its maritime cooperation with the regional countries such as Japan and ASEAN navies to protect SLOC. In conclusion, the ROK Navy needs to build a strong naval power to keep in mind that the 21st century naval rivalry in Northeast Asia is accelerating. The navy must do one's best to protect national strategic and vital interests by strengthening cooperation with regional countries. South Korea is also accelerating its defense reforms in accordance with the pattern of future warfare and the ROK Navy do one's best to have a balanced naval capability capable of actively operating in the offshore waters.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.101-109
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• 2000

A competitive coevolutionary algorithm is a probabilistic search method that imitates the biological process that two or more species competitively coevolve through evolutionary arms race. The algorithm has been used to efficiently solve adversarial problems that can be formulated as the search for a solution that is correct over a large space of test cases. We develop an efficient competitive coevolutionary algorithm to solve adversarial problems with high complexity. The algorithm developed in this paper employs three methods: tournament competitions, exchanging of entry fee, and localized coevolution. Analyzed in this paper are the effects of the methods on the performance of the proposed algorithm. The extensive experiments show that our algorithm can progress an evolutionary arms race between competitive coevolving species and then outperforms existing approaches to solving the adversarial problems.

• Strategy21
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• 통권40호
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• pp.37-81
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• 2016

This paper aims to use crossover analysis to uncover similarities and differences between the U.S-Japan relationship in the World War II era and the modern U.S-China relationship, and to forecast the possibility of the outbreak of war between U.S and China by applying the steps to war theory. The steps to war theory argues that the probability of the outbreak of war between two states within five years would approach 90 percent, if they have ongoing territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry, and arms race. The comparison exposes some similarities with the territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry, but reveals dissimilarities with arms race. U.S-Japan relationship in the World War II era had the arms race, which does not exist the modern U.S-China Relationship. The result of comparison is that the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China correspond to third stage(Risk Level). it means that the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is 55%. But, There are four elements(① Perception of Leader ② Mutual dependence of economy ③ Possession of nuclear weapon ④ Ravages of war) that reduce the probability for the Outbreak of War. Considering the four elements, the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is a slim chance. But the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is excluded because of territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry. So, This paper suggests three points.(① Developing military options ② Reducing the misconception of intend, ③ Promoting navy exchanges) to prevent of Outbreak of War.

• Strategy21
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• 통권40호
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• pp.162-189
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• 2016

This research deals with the PLAN's capabilities and its implication for regional security, and suggests some measures for maritime security cooperation among regional states. China has began to focus its national strategy more on 'rising as a new maritime power' since the 18th Party Convention in November 2012. Chinese new strategy aims at building a strong navy, contributing economic prosperity and national security, and thus elevating its prestige in international society. Most of all, building a strong navy is the foremost task at this time, and that is why the PLAN has the priority for military modernization. Chinese new maritime strategy could cause naval arms race in East Asia and aggravate maritime territorial disputes among concerned parties. It is the time for regional states to discuss some measures to build confidence, such as arms control of naval weapons, establishment of multilateral maritime security mechanism, and foundation of regional security regime, thus enhancing regional maritime cooperation.

• 정보보호뉴스
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• 통권126호
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• pp.8-9
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• 2008

사이버 공간에서의 보안은 공격자와 방어자가 서로의 행동에 연속적으로 반응하는 일종의 군비확장 경쟁(Arms Race)에 비유된다. 정보기술과 사이버 공간이 현재와 같은 속도로 진화하는 동안에는 이런 경쟁이 계속될 가능성이 높다. 따라서 방어자의 입장에서 사이버 보안에 대한 접근은 보호하고자 하는 정보자산의 가치에 따라 예방적(Preventive)이고 선제적(Preemptive)인 대책을 구사할 필요가 있다. 그렇지 않으면 일이 터지고 그때서야 대책 마련에 부지런을 떠는 '소 잃고 외양간 고치는'식의 대응적(Responsive) 수준에 머무를 수 밖에 없다. 상황에 따라 대응적 수준의 보안대책이 최선인 경우도 있으나, 정보기술 환경 또는 사이버 공간의 안전.신뢰성을 적극적으로 확보하기 위해서는 예방적이고 선제적인 보안 수단을 다양한 조직과 시스템에 광범위하게 적용할 필요가 있다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.95-114
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• 2016

We study how an advantage given to an interim winner in sequential conflicts characterizes dynamic competition between players and influences their payoffs. As the intensity of competition during each period is negatively correlated, perfect security is not necessarily desirable for contending parties. We present results which are widely applicable to various types of dynamic competition, where competition in each period is linked to the interim winner's relative advantage. Policy implications are also discussed in a variety of areas, and several extensions are explored.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• 제49권5호
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• pp.549-558
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• 2007

C4B 및 BAT2는 SLA class III 영역에 존재하며, 최근 들어 사람의 질병과의 연관성이 보고되고 있다. GenBank database로부터 수집된 사람과 마우스의 C4B 및 BAT2의 CDS를 염기정렬하여 상동성이 높은 부분에서 primer를 제작한 후 RT-PCR 및 RACE-PCR을 수행하여 돼지 C4B 및 BAT2 유전자의 CDS 서열을 결정하였다. 염기서열이 결정된 돼지 C4B와 BAT2의 CDS 길이가 각각 5226 bp와 6501 bp로 나타났다. 이들 각각의 CDS 및 아미노산 서열을 사람 및 마우스와 비교한 결과 CDS는 76~87%, 아미노산 서열은 72~90%의 상동성을 보였으며, C4B가 BAT2에 비해 다소 낮게 나타났다. 두 유전자에서 나타나는 cSNP를 분석하기 위해서 exon 영역을 증폭하기 위한 primer를 제작하였으며, 돼지 6품종을 대상으로 direct sequencing을 실시하였다. 그 결과 C4B로부터 4개, BAT2로부터 3개의 cSNP가 확인되었다. 또한 7개의 cSNP 중 C4B의 C4248T를 제외한 6개의 cSNP에 의해서 아미노산 치환이 발생하였다. 동일한 DNA를 사용하여 7개의 cSNP를 대상으로 Multiplex-ARMS 방법을 사용하여 유전자형 분석을 실시한 결과 direct sequencing 결과와 일치하였다. Multiplex-ARMS 방법의 재현성을 재확인하기 위해 무작위로 2개의 DNA 시료를 선택하여 direct sequencing과 Multiplex-ARMS 분석을 실시하여 유전자형이 일치함을 다시 확인하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서 확인된 7개의 cSNP는 SLA class III 지역의 haplotype 분석을 위한 기초 자료로 사용될 수 있으며, Multiplex- ARMS 기법은 이종장기 개발에 필수적인 SLA 전체 영역 내 유전자들의 유전자형 분석을 위한 효율적인 분석방법이라고 사료된다.

• 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.203-237
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• 2011

1957년 소련의 스푸트닉 위성 발사 성공에 이은 미 소간 그리고 이후 다수 국가에의한 우주의 군사적 이용 및 우주공간에서의 군비경쟁은 인류의 공동자산으로서의 우주의 평화적 이용을 규정한 우주조약(OST)을 비롯한 다수 국제 조약의 이념에 배치되고 있다. 동서냉전의 격화와 더불어 이 같은 우주에서의 군사적 이용 및 경쟁은 더욱 가열되어져 왔으며, 우주의 평화적 이용 이념은 침략적 목적이 아닌 한 사실상 군사적 이용이 가능하다고 해석되고 있다. 군사적 이용은 주로 우주공간의 위성을 공격하거나 위성으로부터 공격을 하기위해 지상-우주, 우주-우주, 우주-지상의 세 방향으로 핵무기, 운동/초고속 무기, 레이저, 분자 빔, 근접 폭발, 교란 무기 등 현재 및 미래에 이용 가능한 기술을 사용하고 있다. 우주에서의 군비 통제는 주로 UNCOPUOS를 중심으로 국제조약의 제정과 관련 국가의 많은 노력으로 이루어지고 있으며, 대량살상무기의 우주 공간에서의 배치가 금지되고 있다. 대표적인 국제사회의 군비 통제 노력을 열거하면 신뢰구축조치(CBM), 기존 조약 내용의 강화, 부분적 조치, 국가 및 지역적 접근, 종합적 접근, 법적 구속력 있는 대안 등을 통하여 추구되어지고 있다. 미국은 우주 선진국으로서 우주의 군사적 이용 면에서도 관련국가를 훨씬 앞지르고 있어 2000년대 초 우주조약에서 탈퇴함으로써 우주의 평화적 이용을 위한 국제사회의 노력과 엇 박자를 내고 있다. 우주에서의 군비 통제를 통하여 인류의 평화가 확보되고 환경보전이 이루어질 수 있도록 국제사회 및 관련 국가간 협력과 이행이 절실히 필요하다. 한반도에서도 북한의 핵실험 및 미사일 발사에 따른 핵무기 보유, 남한의 우주 로켓트 발사 등 제반 상황으로 볼 때 국제사회의 군비통제 노력에 적극 동참할 것이 요구되고 있다.