• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.21-29
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• 2011

Purpose: The purpose of this master's thesis is to utilize basic data in order to improve the quality of life of cancer patients who received radiation therapy after analysing related factors that influence patient's quality of life and obtaining information about physical, mental problems of patients. Materials and Methods: By using a structured questionnaire about various characteristics and forms of support, I carried out a survey targeting 107 patients that experienced radiation therapy at a university hospital in the Daejeon metropolitan area from July 15 to August 15, 2010 and analysed the factors influencing quality of life. Results: In case of pain due to disease, 65.15 and painless 81.87 showed a high grade quality of life. As body weight decreases, the quality of life become lower. When the grade of quality of life according to economic characteristics was compared, all items except treatment period showed a difference (P=0.000). When the score of social support, family support, medical support and self-esteem was low, the mark of quality of life showed respectively 61.71, 68.77, 71.31, and 69.39 on the basis of 128 points. When the score of support form was high, the mark of quality of life showed 90.47, 83.29, 90.40, and 90.36 (P<0.05). When analyzing the correlation between social support, family support, medical support and self-esteem and the degree of quality of life, social support was 0.768, family support 0.596, medical support 0.434, self-esteem 0.516. They indicated the correlation of meaningful quantity statistically (P<0.01). The factors that improved the quality of life were married state, having a job and painless status. As monthly income increases, the quality of life was also much improved (P<0.05). Among the factors related to quality of life, social support and medical support and higher self-esteem scores of the quality of life score increased 0.979 point, 0.508 points and 1.667 point, respectively. Conclusion: In conclusion, the quality of life of cancer patients that received radiation treatment is related to social support, medical support and self esteem. Self-esteem is an important factor that influenced quality of life, so if government offers works that doesn't affect patient's health, they are a useful method that maximize self-esteem and lessen their financial burden at the same time. Along with these policies, the developments of the attention of medical and the program for cancer patient's family are needed for the purpose of improving quality of life of cancer patients. Lastly, medical team, patients and family have to cooperate in harmony to overcome difficulties of cancer patients.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.43-58
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• 1977

Kojedo is the second largest island in Korea and a total population of 115,500 is living on the island of 394.69 sq. km. Under the direction of three nutrition professors, nutrition surveys in two villages in Kojedo, namely Siljun Ri in Hachung Myon and Soowol Ri in Shinhyun Myon, were carried by 30 college senior students majoring in nutrition from August to 20 August 1977. From a total of 176 households of the two villages, 67 households were randomly selected and 390 family members of the households were subjcets of the nutrition surveys. The precise weighing method was used in evaluating the kinds of foods and nutrient intakes of the subjects for three consecutive days. Thirty-seven pre-school children aged between 3 to 6 years and 27 fertile women were examined for biochemical findings and physical status. The main purposes of the surveys are to provide baseline data on nutrition in Kojedo Island for the Kojedo Community Development Project and to compare the nutritional status of the villages of Siljun Ri and Soowol Ri. Siljun Ri is located in the pilot project area of the Koiedo Community Health Project sponsored since December 1970 by the Christian Medical Commission of the World Council of Churches. While Soowol Ri is a control village for comparison. The results obtained are summarized as follows: Food Intake The average food intake per person per day in Siljun Ri, 1064 grams (91.7% in vegetable foods and 7.6% in animal foods) was 90 grams more than that of Soowol Ri, 974 grams (92.8% in vegetable foods and 5.9% in animal foods). However, the food intake per pre-school child in Siljun Ri, 485 grams (92.6% from vegetable foods and 6.4% from animal foods) was 21 grams lower than that of the Soowol Ri, 506 grams (88.5% from vegetable foods and 6.5% from animal foods). The average intake of beans was 16 grams(1.5% out of the total food intake) in Siljun Ri and 21 grams(2.2% of the total food intake)in Soowol Ri. The villagers should be guided for more consumption of soybeans to improve the quality of protein intake from vegetable foods. Nutrient Intake The adult intake in Siljun Ri and Soowol Ri were 2,529 kcal and 2,511 kcal respectively. The average energy intake of pre-school childen in Siljun Ri was 948 kcal and that for adult and 1,500 kcal for childen aged between 4 to 6 years-given by the Korea FAO Association, the diets in both villages were not adequate. Average daily protein intake of the subjected adult in Siljun Ri was 78.4 grams and that of Soowol Ri was 76.2 grams, while pre-school children took 30.7 grams in the former village and 31.7 grams in the latter village per child per day. The protein intake in both villages were lower than the recommended allowances, 80 grams for adult and 45 grams for $4{\sim}6$ years childen, and animal protein intake of the all subjects was very much lower than the RDA. The main charecter of the diet has been found low in quality of protein and high in carbohydrate. The calcium intakes of the pre-school children in both villages, 251.9 milligrams in Siljun Ri and 218.8 milligrams in Soowol Ri, were very much lower than the recommended allowance of 500 milligrams per day. It is apparent that the diet for children should be supplemented with calcium. Among the vitamin group, the daily average intakes of vitamin A and $B_{2}$(thiamine), $B_{2}$(riboflavin), C(ascorbic acid), and niacin were not adequate for the children in both villages. Especially the intake of riboflavin, 0.4 milligrams in both village children, was much lower than the RDA, 0.9 milligrams per day. Physical Characteristics Average height, weight, chest and head circumference of the pre-school children in both villages were similar to those of the Korean standard given by the Korean Paediatrics Association except that the average height of pre-school boys in Siljun Ri was 8 cm higher than the Korean standard of 105 cm. The mean values of upper arm circumference and skinfold thickness of pre-school boys in both villages were the same, 15.4 cm for upper arm circumference and 6.8 mm for skinfold thickness, but the mean values of those of the girls in Siljun Ri were higher than those of pre-school grils in Soowol Ri. Biochemical Findings Avera ge hemogobin value of boys and girls in both villages was the same, 11.1 grams per 100 ml of blood. The incidence of anemia (Hb value below 11g/100ml) was similar in both viltagesr 36.4% for boys and 50% for girls in Siljun Ri and 37.5% for boys and 50% for girls in Soowol Ri. Average hemoglobin values of fertile women were 10.7g% in Siljun Ri and 10.8% in Soowor Ri. The incidences of anemia(Hb valre brlow 12g/100ml) were 100% in Siljun Ri and 86.7% in Soowol Ri. The anemia of these subjects may be caused mainty low intake of good quality protein and iron intake from vegetable food. Recommendation In general, the nutritional status of a community health pilot village is not higher than that of control village due to the lack of nutrition improvement guldance services. Nutrition education should be delivered to the villagers as a main part of the health education artivities. The emphasis should be on building better health through bttter food habits and better food production as well as on preventing malnutrition and diseasrs. It can be an invaluable part of community developnent. Since nutrition is considered to be at least one-half of MCH care, no village or home visits should be made without careful provision for teaching and demoastrating something simple and practical on nutrition. The nurse, midwife, and village health worker should be the chief promoters of nutrition.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.9
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• pp.69-98
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• 2005

The security industry for civilians (Private Security), was first introduced to Korea via the US army's security system in the early 1960's. Shortly after then, official police laws were enforced in 1973, and private security finally started to develop with the passing of the 'service security industry' law in 1976. Korea's Private Security industry grew rapidly in the 1980's with the support of foreign funds and products, and now there are thought to be approximately 2000 private security enterprises currently running in Korea. However, nowadays the majority of these enterprises are experiencing difficulties such as lack of funds, insufficient management, and lack of control over employees, as a result, it seems difficult for some enterprises to avoid the low production output and bankruptcy. As a result of this these enterprises often settle these matters illegally, such as excessive dumping or avoiding problems by hiring inappropriate employees who don't have the right skills or qualifications for the jobs. The main problem with the establishment of this kind of security service is that it is so easy to make inroads into this private service market. All these hindering factors inhibit the market growth and impede qualitative development. Based on these main reasons, I researched this area, and will analyze and criticize the present condition of Korea's private security. I will present a possible development plan for the private security of Korea by referring to cases from the US and Japan. My method of researching was to investigate any related documentary records and articles and to interview people for necessary evidence. The theoretical study, involves investigation books and dissertations which are published from inside and outside of the country, and studying the complete collection of laws and regulations, internet data, various study reports, and the documentary records and the statistical data of many institutions such as the National Police Office, judicial training institute, and the enterprises of private security. Also, in addition, the contents of professionals who are in charge of practical affairs on the spot in order to overcomes the critical points of documentary records when investigating dissertation. I tried to get a firm grasp of the problems and difficulties which people in these work enterprises experience, this I thought would be most effective by interviewing the workers, for example: how they feel in the work places and what are the elements which inpede development? And I also interviewed policemen who are in charge of supervising the private escort enterprises, in an effort to figure out the problems and differences in opinion between domestic private security service and the police. From this investigation and research I will try to pin point the major problems of the private security and present a developmental plan. Firstly-Companies should unify the private police law and private security service law. Secondly-It is essential to introduce the 'specialty certificate' system for the quality improvement of private security service. Thirdly-must open up a new private security market by improving old system. Fourth-must build up the competitive power of the security service enterprises which is based on an efficient management. Fifth-needs special marketing strategy to hold customers Sixth-needs positive research based on theoretical studies. Seventh-needs the consistent and even training according to effective market demand. Eighth-Must maintain interrelationship with the police department. Ninth-must reinforce the system of Korean private security service association. Tenth-must establish private security laboratory. Based on these suggestions there should be improvement of private security service.

• The Korea Journal of Herbology
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.1-16
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• 2012

Objective : To investigate the current status of prescription drugs in Oriental medical institutes and to draw up a future plan for the revitalization of Oriental medical health insurance, this survey has been performed. Method : The survey has been made with 321 doctors working at Oriental medical institutes in Daegu and Kyungbuk areas for a period of 3 month from June 1, 2010 until September 1, 2010. Result : 1. When it comes to the current status of the use of herbal drugs in Oriental Health insurance, most of doctors surveyed prescribe insurance drugs, and they prescribe insurance drugs to patients, who are less than 20% of total patients visiting their clinics. 2. The awareness of Herbal Health Care Drugs is investigated. When it comes to the understanding of the difference between insurance drugs(powder type drugs) and granular type drugs, doctors admit that they differ only in one aspect, whether or not their being covered by health insurance. Based on the survey results on the understanding of insurance coverage of granular type drugs, doctors, even though they long for granular type drugs to be accepted as insurance drugs, are worrying whether the number of outpatients might dwindle due to increased insurance co-payments. They also point out that the biggest obstacles in the expansion of the granular type drugs as insurance drugs are the lack of understanding of the government and the objection of the Health Insurance Review and Assesment service (HIRA) for fear of increased insurance claims. 3. Upon investigation on Oriental medicine doctors' understandings of herbal pharmaceutical industry, it is found that doctors' responses on pharmaceutical industry are not all positive ones('new product development and neglect of R&D infrastructure' and 'smallness of industry'). When it is investigated what area needs the greatest improvement in herbal pharmaceutical industry, 'securing sufficient capital, good manufacturing, and strengthening quality control', is the highest. 4. When it is asked what are the most needed in order to improve herbal health insurance medicine, responses such as 'the increase in the accessibility to and the utilization of Oriental medical clinics through the diversification of the means of prescriptions', 'the improvement of insurance benefits(cap adjustments)', 'increase the proportion of high quality medicinal plants', 'the ceiling of co-payments(deductible) at 20,000 won or more', 'expansion of the choices of formulations', 'formulational expansions of tablets and pills', and finally 'admittance and expansion of granular type drug as insurance drug' are the highest. 5. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the current status of the usage of Oriental health care herbal drugs, the followings are observed. First, the frequency of use of health insurance drugs by the doctors who use health insurance with general characteristics shows similar differences in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.001), average number of daily patients (p<0.05). Secondly, as to the willingness of the expanded usage of insurance drugs, similar differences are observed in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.05). 6. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the perception of Herbal health care drugs, the followings are observed. First, inspecting general characteristics and insurance claims due to increased co-payments(deductible amount) reveals similar differences in case of working period (p<0.01) and in case of total monthly sales amount (p <0.01). Secondly, inspecting general characteristics and the obstacles that hinder granular type drugs from being accepted as health care insurance drugs shows similar differences in case of working period (p<0.05). 7. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the understanding of Oriental Herbal pharmaceutical companies, the followings are observed. First, opinions on the general characteristics of pharmaceutical companies, when examined with variance analysis, shows similar differences in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.05). Secondly, when opinions are examined on general characteristics and the problems of herbal pharmaceutical companies, similar differences are found in case of working period (p<0.01) and in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.001). Lastly, opinions on the general characteristics and reforms of pharmaceutical companies, similar differences are observed in case of working period (p<0.001). 8. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the improvement of insurance Herbal drugs, the followings are observed. First, regarding general characteristics and insurance benefits, similar differences are observed in case of working period (p<0.05), in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.05), and in case of average number of daily patients (p<0.01). Secondly, opinions on the general characteristics and the needs for the improvement of Herbal insurance drugs are examined in 5 different aspects, which are the approval of granular type drugs as insurance drugs, the expanded practices of the number of prescription insurance drugs, the needs of a variety of formulations, the needs of TFT of which numbers of Oriental medical doctors are members for the revision of the existing system, and the needs of adjusting the current ceiling of the fixed amount and the fixed rate. When processed by the analysis of variance, the results show similar differences in case of average number of daily patients (p<0.01). Conclusion : From the results of this study the first measures to take are, to reform overall insurance benefit system, including insurance co-payment system(fixed rate cap adjustment), to expand the number of the herbal drugs to be prescribed matching with insurance benefit accordingly, and to revitalize herbal medicine insurance system through the change of various formulations. In addition, it is recommended to improve the effectiveness of herbal medicine by making plans to enhance the efficacy of herbal medicine and by enabling small pharmaceutical companies to outgrow themselves.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.205-212
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• 2012

This study was performed to investigate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and assess nutrient intake levels for the purpose of improving MS risk factors. The participants in this study were 512 adults consisting of 271 men and 241 women aged 30 and over, who visited a public health center for a medical check up. The diagnosis of MS subjects was adapted from the NCEP-ATPIII guidelines and the WHO Asia-Pacific Area criteria for obesity. The MS group was defined as subjects displaying three or more risk factors, and the non MS group was defined as those displaying two or less risk factors. A dietary survey was conducted using the 24-hour recall method. The number of subjects displaying MS syndrome factors was 158 (30.9%), broken down into, 89 men and 69 women. Regarding risk factors in the MS group, the prevalence of waist circumference was 40.5%, hypertension 34.2%, hyperglycemia 31.0%, low HDL-cholesterol 24.7%, and hypertriglycemia 19.6%. BMI, sistolic blood pressure, blood glocose, blood triglyceride, and blood HCL-cholesterol of the MS group were significantly higher compared to the non MS group. Male subjects in the MS group reported high intakes of cereals, sugar, fruits, meat and poultry, oil and fats, and beverages and total food intake was significantly higher compared to the non MS group. Women in the MS group reported high intakes of meat and poultry, milk and dairy products, beverages, and seasonings, and total food intake was higher compared to the non MS group. Dietary diversity score (DDS) was 3.82~4.04, which was not significant among the groups. In men, dietary variety score (DVS) was 16.3 in the MS group and 19.4 in the non MS group, whereas in women, the DVS was 15.2 in the non MS group and 17.0 in the MS group. In GMVDF pattern, 11111 pattern was 30.7%, followed by 01111 for men and 11101 for women. Calorie, fat, and cholesterol intakes in men as well as, calorie, fat, and folate intakes in women in the MS group were higher compared to the non MS group. Intakes of protein, P, Fe, Na, vitamin $B_1$, vitamin $B_2$, niacin, vitamin E, and Zn were higher than the KDRIs. On the other hand, intakes of Ca, K, fiber, vitamin $B_2$, and vitamin C were below the KDRIs. Intakes of lipids, animal food, Na, and cholesterol in the MS group were higher compared to the non MS group, whereas intake of dietary fiber was lower. Our results indicate that continuous, systematic nutritional education program must implemented to reduce the risk factors associated with MS.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.59 no.3
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• pp.286-297
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• 2005

Background : Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a common cause of cancer-related death in North America and Korea, with an overall 5-year survival rate of between 4 and 14%. The TNM staging system is the best prognostic index for operable NSCLC . However, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), matrix metalloproteinase-9(MMP-9), and C-erbB-2 have all been implicated in the pathogenesis of NSCLC and might provide prognostic information. Methods : Immunohistochemical staining of 81 specimens from a resected primary non-small cell lung cancer was evaluated in order to determine the role of the biological markers on NSCLC . Immunohistochemical staining for EGFR, MMP-9, and C-erbB-2 was performed on paraffin-embedded tissue sections to observe the expression pattern according to the pathologic type and surgical staging. The correlations between the expression of each biological marker and the survival time was determined. Results : When positive immunohistochemical staining was defined as the extent area>20%(more than Grade 2), the positive rates for EGFR, MMP-9, and C-erbB-2 staining were 71.6%, 44.3%, and 24.1% of the 81 patients, respectively. The positive rates of EGFR and MMP-9 stain for NSCLC according to the surgical stages I, II, and IIIa were 75.0% and 41.7%, 66.7% and 47.6%, and 76.9% and 46.2%, respectively. The median survival time of the EGFR(-) group, 71.8 months, was significantly longer than that of the EGFR(+) group, 33.5 months.(p=0.018, Kaplan-Meier Method, log-rank test).. The MMP-9(+) group had a shorter median survival time than the MMP-9(-) group, 35.0 and 65.3 months, respectively (p=0.2). The co-expression of EGFR and MMP-9 was associated with a worse prognosis with a median survival time of 26.9 months, when compared with the 77 months for both negative-expression groups (p=0.0023). There were no significant differences between the C-erbB-2(+) and C-erbB-2 (-) groups. Conclusion : In NSCLC, the expression of EGFR might be a prognostic factor, and the co-expression of EGFR and MMP-9 was found to be associated with a poor prognosis. However, C-erbB-2 expression had no prognostic significance.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.1
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• pp.371-408
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• 1997

This article is the reserch on actual condition of crime of arson which occurs in Korea and its countermeasures. The the presented problem in this article are that (1) we have generally very low rate concern about the crime of arson contrary to realistic problems of rapid increase of crime of arson (2) as such criminal motives became so diverse as to the economic or criminal purpose unlike characteristic and mental deficiency of old days, and to countermeasure these problems effectively it presentation the necessity of systemantic research. Based on analysis of reality of arson, the tendency of this arson in Korea in the ratio of increase is said to be higher than those in violence crime or general fire rate. and further its rate is far more greater than those of the U.S.A. and Japan. Arson is considered to be a method of using fire as crime and in case of presently residence to be the abject, it is a public offense crime which aqccompany fatality in human life. This is the well It now fact to all of us. And further in order to presentation to the crime of arson, strictness of criminal law (criminal law No, 164 and 169, and fire protection law No. 110 and 111) and classification of arsonist as felony are institutionary reinforced to punish with certainty of possibility, Therefore, as tendency of arson has been increased compared to other nations, it is necessary to supplement strategical policy to bring out overall concerns of the seriousness of risk and damage of arson, which have been resulted from the lack of understanding. In characteristics analysis of crime of arson, (1) It is now reveald that, in the past such crime rate appeared far more within the boundary of town or city areas in the past, presently increased rate of arsons in rural areas are far more than in the town or small city areas, thereby showing characteristics of crime of arson extending nation wide. (2) general timetable of arson shows that night more than day time rate, and reveald that is trait behavior in secrecy.(3) arsonists are usually arrested at site or by victim or report of third person(82,9%).Investigation activities or self surrenders rate only 11.2%. The time span of arrest is normally the same day of arson and at times it takes more than one year to arrest. This reveals its necessity to prepare for long period of time for arrest, (4) age rate of arson is in their thirties mostly as compared to homicide, robbery and adultery, and considerable numbers of arsons are in old age of over fifties. It reveals age rate is increased (5) Over half of the arsonists are below the junior high school (6) the rate of convicts by thier records is based on first offenders primarily and secondly more than 4 time convicts. This apparently shows necessity of effective correctional education policy for their social assimilation together with re-investigation of human education at the primary and secondary education system in thier life. The examples of motivation for arosnits, such as personal animosity, fury, monetary swindle, luscious purpose and other aims of destroying of proof, and other social resistance, violence including ways of threatening, beside the motives of individual defects, are diverse and arsonic suicide and specifically suicidal accompany together keenly manifested. When we take this fact with the criminal theory, it really reveals arsons of crime are increasing and its casualities are serious and a point as a way of suicide is the anomie theory of Durkheim and comensurate with the theory of that of Merton, Specifically in the arson of industrial complex, it is revealed that one with revolutionary motive or revolting motive would do the arsonic act. For the policy of prevention of arsons, professional research work in organizational cooperation for preventive activities is conducted in municipal or city wise functions in the name of Parson Taskforces and beside a variety of research institutes in federal government have been operating effectively to countermeasure in many fields of research. Franch and Sweden beside the U.S. set up a overall operation of fire prevention research funtions and have obtained very successful result. Japan also put their research likewise for countermeasure. In this research as a way of preventive fire policy, first, it is necessary to accomodate the legal preventitive activities for fire prevention in judicial side and as an administrative side, (1) precise statistic management of crime of arson (2) establishment of professional research functions or a corporate (3) improvement of system for cooperative structural team for investigation of fires and menpower organization of professional members. Secondly, social mentality in individual prospect, recognition of fires by arson and youth education of such effect, educational program for development and practical promotion. Thirdly, in view of environmental side, the ways of actual performance by programming with the establishment of cooperative advancement in local social function elements with administrative office, habitants, school facilities and newspapers measures (2) establishment of personal protection where weak menpowers are displayed in special fire prevention measures. These measures are presented for prevention of crime of arson. The control of crime and prevention shall be prepared as a means of self defence by the principle of self responsibility Specifically arsonists usually aims at the comparatively weak control of fire prevention is prevalent and it is therefore necessary to prepare individual facilities with their spontaneous management of fire prevention instead of public municipal funtures of local geverment. As Clifford L. Karchmer asserted instead of concerns about who would commit arson, what portion of area would be the target of the arson. It is effective to minister spontaveously the fire prevention measure in his facility with the consideration of characteristics of arson. On the other hand, it is necessary for the concerned personnel of local goverment and groups to distribute to the local society in timely manner for new information about the fire prevention, thus contribute to effective result of fire prevention result. In consideration of these factors, it is inevitable to never let coincide with the phemonemon of arsons in similar or mimic features as recognized that these could prevail just an epedemic as a strong imitational attitude. In processing of policy to encounter these problems, it is necessary to place priority of city policy to enhancement of overall concerns toward the definitive essense of crime of arson.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.127-146
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• 2017

Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.161-177
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• 2014

Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.37-63
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• 2012

In franchise business, exclusive sales territory (sometimes EST in table) protection is a very important issue from an economic, social and political point of view. It affects the growth and survival of both franchisor and franchisee and often raises issues of social and political conflicts. When franchisee is not familiar with related laws and regulations, franchisor has high chance to utilize it. Exclusive sales territory protection by the manufacturer and distributors (wholesalers or retailers) means sales area restriction by which only certain distributors have right to sell products or services. The distributor, who has been granted exclusive sales territories, can protect its own territory, whereas he may be prohibited from entering in other regions. Even though exclusive sales territory is a quite critical problem in franchise business, there is not much rigorous research about the reason, results, evaluation, and future direction based on empirical data. This paper tries to address this problem not only from logical and nomological validity, but from empirical validation. While we purse an empirical analysis, we take into account the difficulties of real data collection and statistical analysis techniques. We use a set of disclosure document data collected by Korea Fair Trade Commission, instead of conventional survey method which is usually criticized for its measurement error. Existing theories about exclusive sales territory can be summarized into two groups as shown in the table below. The first one is about the effectiveness of exclusive sales territory from both franchisor and franchisee point of view. In fact, output of exclusive sales territory can be positive for franchisors but negative for franchisees. Also, it can be positive in terms of sales but negative in terms of profit. Therefore, variables and viewpoints should be set properly. The other one is about the motive or reason why exclusive sales territory is protected. The reasons can be classified into four groups - industry characteristics, franchise systems characteristics, capability to maintain exclusive sales territory, and strategic decision. Within four groups of reasons, there are more specific variables and theories as below. Based on these theories, we develop nine hypotheses which are briefly shown in the last table below with the results. In order to validate the hypothesis, data is collected from government (FTC) homepage which is open source. The sample consists of 1,896 franchisors and it contains about three year operation data, from 2006 to 2008. Within the samples, 627 have exclusive sales territory protection policy and the one with exclusive sales territory policy is not evenly distributed over 19 representative industries. Additional data are also collected from another government agency homepage, like Statistics Korea. Also, we combine data from various secondary sources to create meaningful variables as shown in the table below. All variables are dichotomized by mean or median split if they are not inherently dichotomized by its definition, since each hypothesis is composed by multiple variables and there is no solid statistical technique to incorporate all these conditions to test the hypotheses. This paper uses a simple chi-square test because hypotheses and theories are built upon quite specific conditions such as industry type, economic condition, company history and various strategic purposes. It is almost impossible to find all those samples to satisfy them and it can't be manipulated in experimental settings. However, more advanced statistical techniques are very good on clean data without exogenous variables, but not good with real complex data. The chi-square test is applied in a way that samples are grouped into four with two criteria, whether they use exclusive sales territory protection or not, and whether they satisfy conditions of each hypothesis. So the proportion of sample franchisors which satisfy conditions and protect exclusive sales territory, does significantly exceed the proportion of samples that satisfy condition and do not protect. In fact, chi-square test is equivalent with the Poisson regression which allows more flexible application. As results, only three hypotheses are accepted. When attitude toward the risk is high so loyalty fee is determined according to sales performance, EST protection makes poor results as expected. And when franchisor protects EST in order to recruit franchisee easily, EST protection makes better results. Also, when EST protection is to improve the efficiency of franchise system as a whole, it shows better performances. High efficiency is achieved as EST prohibits the free riding of franchisee who exploits other's marketing efforts, and it encourages proper investments and distributes franchisee into multiple regions evenly. Other hypotheses are not supported in the results of significance testing. Exclusive sales territory should be protected from proper motives and administered for mutual benefits. Legal restrictions driven by the government agency like FTC could be misused and cause mis-understandings. So there need more careful monitoring on real practices and more rigorous studies by both academicians and practitioners.