• Title/Summary/Keyword: Approximate estimate

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Cross-Validation of SPT-N Values in Pohang Ground Using Geostatistics and Surface Wave Multi-Channel Analysis (지구통계기법과 표면파 다중채널분석을 이용한 포항 지반의 SPT-N value 교차검증)

  • Kim, Kyung-Oh;Han, Heui-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.393-405
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    • 2020
  • Various geotechnical information is required to evaluate the stability of the ground and a foundation once liquefaction occurs due to earthquakes, such as the soil strength and groundwater level. The results of the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) conducted in Korea are registered in the National Geotechnical Information Portal System. If geotechnical information for a non-drilled area is needed, geostatistics can be applied. This paper is about the feasibility of obtaining ground information by the Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) method and the Inverse Distance Weighting Method (IDWM). Esri's ArcGIS Pro program was used to estimate these techniques. The soil strength parameter of the drilling area and the level of groundwater obtained from the standard penetration test were cross-validated with the results of the analysis technique. In addition, Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) was conducted to verify the techniques used in the analysis. The Buk-gu area of Pohang was divided into 1.0 km×1.0 km and 110 zones. The cross-validation for the SPT N value and groundwater level through EBK and IDWM showed that both techniques were suitable. MASW presented an approximate section area, making it difficult to clearly grasp the distribution pattern and groundwater level of the SPT N value.

LED Sensitive Light System Development by Brain-wave (LED감성조명 장치 개발을 통한 뇌파분석)

  • Choi, Keum-Yeon;Eo, Ik-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this experiment is to analyze the basic status of brain. Which are consist of rest, attention and concentration, of the brain by measuring the temperature of color by changing RGB color after manufacturing LED-illumination stand. Basic status (rest, attention and concentration) of experimenter were measured temperature of colors having three difference temperature like as $2,300^{\circ}K$, $4,000^{\circ}K$ and $6,000^{\circ}K$. The results was shown that experimenter feels more comfortable and relaxation by decreasing the temperature of color. For example we can see the little increase of concentration index at $4,000^{\circ}K$ condition and we can estimate that right brain can be more activated at the $4,000^{\circ}K$ condition. But we can not find out any different at the $6,000^{\circ}K$ condition. Main cause of no difference from the color temperature was the similarity of color temperature under the general fluorescent lamp. And interface temperature of radiant heat design results LED and PCB was approximately 80 degrees to COMSOL Multiphysics, and changed until approximately 50 degrees until a floor plane of PCB, and verification as arranged chip LED to metal PCB, and it was possible, and a near radiant heat design was confirmed to an approximate value of, as a result, acid manufacture.

A Study on the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Korean Macro Economic Activities : An EGARCH and VECM Approach (국제유가의 변동성이 한국 거시경제에 미치는 영향 분석 : EGARCH 및 VECM 모형의 응용)

  • Kim, Sang-Su
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

DISK OF Be STAR WITH EMISSION (Hα 방출선을 통한 Be 항성 원반)

  • Ahn, Dae-Gun;Bae, Jang-Ho;Lee, Sang-Gak;Shin, Young-Woo;Ko, Yeon-Gyung;Kang, Suk-Chul
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2007
  • We have determined the disk size of Be stars by using $H{\alpha}$ emission. We observed spectra of Be stars with telescope in SNU, equipped with SB SGS (Santa Babara Self Guided Spectrograph) and CCD ST-8. The size of disk of Be stars was estimated with the Be star model of Grundstrom & Gies (2006). This study suggests that the medium resolution spectra taken with small telescope equipped with commercial spectrograph are useful to estimate the approximate size of the $H{\alpha}$ emitting disk around Be stars.

Development of an Approximate Cost Estimating Model for Bridge Construction Project using CBR Method (사례기반추론 기법을 이용한 교량 공사비 추론 모형 구축)

  • Kim, Min-Ji;Moon, Hyoun-Seok;Kang, Leen-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.42-52
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    • 2013
  • The aim of this study is to present a prediction model of construction cost for a bridge that has a high reliability using historical data from the planning phase based on a CBR (Case-Based Reasoning) method in order to overcome limitations of existing construction cost prediction methods, which is linearly estimated. To do this, a reasoning model of bridge construction cost by a spreadsheet template was suggested using complexly both CBR and GA (Genetic Algorithm). Besides, this study performed a case study to verify the suggested cost reasoning model for bridge construction projects. Measuring efficiency for a result of the case study was 8.69% on average. Since accuracy of the suggested prediction cost is relatively high compared to the other analysis methods for a prediction of construction cost, reliability of the suggested model was secured. In the case that information for detailed specifications of each bridge type in an initial design phase is difficult to be collected, the suggested model is able to predict the bridge construction cost within the minimized measuring efficiency with only the representative specifications for bridges as an improved correction method. Therefore, it is expected that the model will be used to estimate a reasonable construction cost for a bridge project.

Design and Analsis of a high speed switching system with two priority (두개의 우선 순위를 가지는 고속 스윗칭 시스템의 설계 및 성능 분석)

  • Hong, Yo-Hun;Choe, Jin-Sik;Jeon, Mun-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.8C no.6
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    • pp.793-805
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    • 2001
  • In the recent priority system, high-priority packet will be served first and low-priority packet will be served when there isn\`t any high-priority packet in the system. By the way, even high-priority packet can be blocked by HOL (Head of Line) contention in the input queueing System. Therefore, the whole switching performance can be improved by serving low-priority packet even though high-priority packet is blocked. In this paper, we study the performance of preemptive priority in an input queueing switch for high speed switch system. The analysis of this switching system is taken into account of the influence of priority scheduling and the window scheme for head-of-line contention. We derive queue length distribution, delay and maximum throughput for the switching system based on these control schemes. Because of the service dependencies between inputs, an exact analysis of this switching system is intractable. Consequently, we provide an approximate analysis based on some independence assumption and the flow conservation rule. We use an equivalent queueing system to estimate the service capability seen by each input. In case of the preemptive priority policy without considering a window scheme, we extend the approximation technique used by Chen and Guerin [1] to obtain more accurate results. Moreover, we also propose newly a window scheme that is appropriate for the preemptive priority switching system in view of implementation and operation. It can improve the total system throughput and delay performance of low priority packets. We also analyze this window scheme using an equivalent queueing system and compare the performance results with that without the window scheme. Numerical results are compared with simulations.

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Estimation of Regional Probable Rainfall based on Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 지역별 확률강우량)

  • Kim, Young-Ho;Yeo, Chang-Geon;Seo, Geun-Soon;Song, Jai-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 2011
  • This research proposes the suitable method for estimating the future probable rainfall based in 2100 on the observed rainfall data from main climate observation stations in Korea and the rainfall data from the A1B climate change scenario in the Korea Meteorological Administration. For all those, the frequency probable rainfall in 2100 was estimated by the relationship between average values of 24-hours annual maximum rainfalls and related parameters. Three methods to estimate it were introduced; First one is the regressive analysis method by parameters of probable distribution estimated by observed rainfall data. In the second method, parameters of probable distribution were estimated with the observed rainfall data. Also the rainfall data till 2100 were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Last method was that parameters of probable distribution and probable rainfall were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The estimated probable rainfall by the A1B scenario was smaller than the observed rainfall data, so it is required that the estimated probable rainfall was calibrated by the quantile mapping method. After that calibration, estimated probable rainfall data was averagely became approximate 2.3 to 3.0 times. When future probable rainfall was the estimated by only observed rainfall, estimated probable rainfall was overestimated. When future probable rainfall was estimated by the A1B scenario, although it was estimated by similar pattern with observed rainfall data, it frequently does not consider the regional characteristics. Comparing with average increased rate of 24-hours annual maximum rainfall and increased rate of probable rainfall estimated by three methods, optimal method of estimated future probable rainfall would be selected for considering climate change.

A Study on the Performance Degradation Pattern of Caisson-type Quay Wall Port Facilities (케이슨식 안벽 항만시설의 성능저하패턴 연구)

  • Na, Yong Hyoun;Park, Mi Yeon;Jang, Shinwoo
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.146-153
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: In the case of domestic port facilities, port structures that have been in use for a long time have many problems in terms of safety performance and functionality due to the enlargement of ships, increased frequency of use, and the effects of natural disasters due to climate change. A big data analysis method was studied to develop an approximate model that can predict the aging pattern of a port facility based on the maintenance history data of the port facility. Method: In this study, member-level maintenance history data for caisson-type quay walls were collected, defined as big data, and based on the data, a predictive approximation model was derived to estimate the aging pattern and deterioration of the facility at the project level. A state-based aging pattern prediction model generated through Gaussian process (GP) and linear interpolation (SLPT) techniques was proposed, and models suitable for big data utilization were compared and proposed through validation. Result: As a result of examining the suitability of the proposed method, the SLPT method has RMSE of 0.9215 and 0.0648, and the predictive model applied with the SLPT method is considered suitable. Conclusion: Through this study, it is expected that the study of predicting performance degradation of big data-based facilities will become an important system in decision-making regarding maintenance.

Comparison of accuracy of breeding value for cow from three methods in Hanwoo (Korean cattle) population

  • Hyo Sang Lee;Yeongkuk Kim;Doo Ho Lee;Dongwon Seo;Dong Jae Lee;Chang Hee Do;Phuong Thanh N. Dinh;Waruni Ekanayake;Kil Hwan Lee;Duhak Yoon;Seung Hwan Lee;Yang Mo Koo
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.65 no.4
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    • pp.720-734
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    • 2023
  • In Korea, Korea Proven Bulls (KPN) program has been well-developed. Breeding and evaluation of cows are also an essential factor to increase earnings and genetic gain. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of cow breeding value by using three methods (pedigree index [PI], pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction [PBLUP], and genomic-BLUP [GBLUP]). The reference population (n = 16,971) was used to estimate breeding values for 481 females as a test population. The accuracy of GBLUP was 0.63, 0.66, 0.62 and 0.63 for carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), back-fat thickness (BFT), and marbling score (MS), respectively. As for the PBLUP method, accuracy of prediction was 0.43 for CWT, 0.45 for EMA, 0.43 for MS, and 0.44 for BFT. Accuracy of PI method was the lowest (0.28 to 0.29 for carcass traits). The increase by approximate 20% in accuracy of GBLUP method than other methods could be because genomic information may explain Mendelian sampling error that pedigree information cannot detect. Bias can cause reducing accuracy of estimated breeding value (EBV) for selected animals. Regression coefficient between true breeding value (TBV) and GBLUP EBV, PBLUP EBV, and PI EBV were 0.78, 0.625, and 0.35, respectively for CWT. This showed that genomic EBV (GEBV) is less biased than PBLUP and PI EBV in this study. In addition, number of effective chromosome segments (Me) statistic that indicates the independent loci is one of the important factors affecting the accuracy of BLUP. The correlation between Me and the accuracy of GBLUP is related to the genetic relationship between reference and test population. The correlations between Me and accuracy were -0.74 in CWT, -0.75 in EMA, -0.73 in MS, and -0.75 in BF, which were strongly negative. These results proved that the estimation of genetic ability using genomic data is the most effective, and the smaller the Me, the higher the accuracy of EBV.

Initial results from spatially averaged coherency, frequency-wavenumber, and horizontal to vertical spectrum ratio microtremor survey methods for site hazard study at Launceston, Tasmania (Tasmania 의 Launceston 시의 위험 지역 분석을 위한 공간적 평균 일관성, 주파수-파수, 수평과 수직 스펙트럼의 비율을 이용한 상신 진동 탐사법의 일차적 결과)

  • Claprood, Maxime;Asten, Michael W.
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.132-142
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    • 2009
  • The Tamar rift valley runs through the City of Launceston, Tasmania. Damage has occurred to city buildings due to earthquake activity in Bass Strait. The presence of the ancient valley, the Tamar valley, in-filled with soft sediments that vary rapidly in thickness from 0 to 250mover a few hundreds metres, is thought to induce a 2D resonance pattern, amplifying the surface motions over the valley and in Launceston. Spatially averaged coherency (SPAC), frequency-wavenumber (FK) and horizontal to vertical spectrum ratio (HVSR) microtremor survey methods are combined to identify and characterise site effects over the Tamar valley. Passive seismic array measurements acquired at seven selected sites were analysed with SPAC to estimate shear wave velocity (slowness) depth profiles. SPAC was then combined with HVSR to improve the resolution of these profiles in the sediments to an approximate depth of 125 m. Results show that sediments thicknesses vary significantly throughout Launceston. The top layer is composed of as much as 20m of very soft Quaternary alluvial sediments with a velocity from 50 m/s to 125 m/s. Shear-wave velocities in the deeper Tertiary sediment fill of the Tamar valley, with thicknesses from 0 to 250m vary from 400 m/s to 750 m/s. Results obtained using SPAC are presented at two selected sites (GUN and KPK) that agree well with dispersion curves interpreted with FK analysis. FK interpretation is, however, limited to a narrower range of frequencies than SPAC and seems to overestimate the shear wave velocity at lower frequencies. Observed HVSR are also compared with the results obtained by SPAC, assuming a layered earth model, and provide additional constraints on the shear wave slowness profiles at these sites. The combined SPAC and HVSR analysis confirms the hypothesis of a layered geology at the GUN site and indicates the presence of a 2D resonance pattern across the Tamar valley at the KPK site.