• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.24 no.A
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• pp.215-226
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• 2004

A dynamic reliability model which can take into account the time history of loading sequences may be applied to the analyses of the hydraulic stability of armor units on rubble-mound breakwaters. All the parameters related to the stability of structures have been considered to be constants in the deterministic model until now. Thus, it is impossible to study the effects of some uncertainties of the related random variables on the stability of structures. In this paper, the dynamic reliability model can be developed by POT(Peak Over Threshold) method in order to take into account the time history of loading sequences and to investigate the temporal behaviors of stability of structure with its loading history. Finally, it is confirmed that the results of dynamic reliability model agree with straight- forwardly those of AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach) of the static reliability model for the same input conditions. In addition, the temporal behaviors of probability of failure can be studied by the dynamic reliability model developed to analyze the hydraulic stability of armor units on rubble-mound breakwaters. Therefore, the present results may be useful for the management of repair and maintenance over the whole life cycle of structure.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.22 no.50
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• pp.23-32
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• 1999

Reliability and maintainability allocation in the analysis of the system's design, with the objective of planning and installing the individual components in such a way that the system performance is achieved. This paper has been made to solve an important task in reliability management of manufacturing systems within the general objective being to increase productivity while maintaining costs low. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical approach to determine an optimal reliability and maintainability allocation, trading off among system performance and parts investment costs. Two important considerations will be addressed in this regard : (ⅰ) determine the reliability and maintainability allocation of parts which maximizes a given production index, having fixed the total cost of investments ; and (ⅱ) determine the reliability and maintainability allocation which minimizes the total cost of investments, having fixed a minimum acceptable level of productivity. The procedure proposed in this paper is able to provide to managers and designers useful indications on the reliability and maintainability characteristics of parts in series -parallel systems. And this heuristic model is a decision support tool for contractors who are involved in large scale design projects such as ship and aircraft design. Numerical examples prove that an approximate expression of the average throughput rate is sufficiently accurate to be used in a numerical optimization method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.83 no.2
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• pp.167-178
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• 2022

Surrogate models aim to approximate the performance function with an active-learning design of experiments (DoE) to obtain a sufficiently accurate prediction of the performance function's sign for an inexpensive computational demand in reliability analysis. Nevertheless, many existing active-learning methods are limited to the Kriging model, while the uncertainties of the Kriging itself affect the reliability analysis results. Moreover, the existing general active-learning methods may not achieve a fully satisfactory balance between accuracy and efficiency. Therefore, a novel active-learning method GLM-CM is constructed to yield the issues, which conciliates several merits of existing methods. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed method, four examples, concerning both mathematical and engineering problems, were selected. By benchmarking obtained results with literature findings, various surrogate models combined with the proposed method not only provide an accurate reliability evaluation while highly alleviating the computational burden, but also provides a satisfactory balance between accuracy and efficiency compared to the other reliability methods.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.43-53
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• 1985

This study proposes a reliability based design criteria for the steel bridge (H-beam, plate-girder and composite-beam), which is most common type of steel bridge, and also proposes the theoretical bases of nominal safety factors as well as load and rasistance factors based on the reliability theory. Major 2nd moment reliability analysis and design theories including both Cornell's MFOSM (Mean First Order 2nd Moment) Methods and Lind-Hasofer's AFOSM(Advanced First Order 2nd Moment) Methods are summarized and compared, and it has been found that Lind-Hasofer's approximate and an approximate Log-normal type reliability formula are well suited for the proposed reliability study. A target reliability index (${\beta}_0=3.5$) is selected as an optimal value considering our practice based on the calibration with the safety pravisions of the current steel bridge design code. Galambo's theory is used for the derivation of the algorithm for the evaluation of uncertainties associated with resistences by LRFD Format and SGST Format, whereas the magnitude of the uncertainties associated with load effects are chosen primarily by considering our level of practice. It may be concluded that the proposed LRFD reliability based design provisions for the steel highway bridge give more rational design than the current standard code for steel highway bridge.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.67 no.4
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• pp.505-511
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• 2018

Long term capacity expansion planning has to be carried out to satisfy pre-defined system reliability criterion. For purpose of assessing system reliability, probabilistic simulation technique has been widely adopted. However, the way how to approximate generator outage, especially maintenance outage, in probabilistic simulation scheme can significantly influence on reliability assessment. Therefore, in this paper, 3 different maintenance approximation methods are applied to investigate the quantitative impact of maintenance approximation method on long term capacity expansion planning.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.852-857
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• 2004

A new and efficient method for estimating the statistical moments of a system performance function has been developed. The method consists of two steps: (1) An approximate response surface is generated by a quadratic regression model, and (2) the statistical moments of the regression model are then calculated by experimental design techniques proposed by Seo and $Kwak^{(4)}$. In this approach, the size of experimental region affects the accuracy of the statistical moments. Therefore, the region size should be selected suitably. The D-optimal design and the central composite design are adopted over the selected experimental region for the regression model. Finally, the Pearson system is adopted to decide the distribution type of the system performance function and to analyze structural reliability.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society For Composite Materials Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.211-214
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• 2005

This research studied robust design of composite structure under combined loading of bending and torsion. DOE (Design of Experiment) technique was used to find important design factors. The results show that the beam height, beam width, layer thickness and stack angle of outer-layer are important design parameter. The $2^{nd}$ DOE and RSM (Response Surface Model) were conducted to obtain optimum design. Multi-island genetic algorithm was used to optimum design. An approximate value of 6.65 mm in deflection was expected under optimum condition. Six sigma robust design was conducted to find out guideline for control range of design parameter. To acquire six sigma level reliability, the sigma level reliability, the standard deviation of design parameter should be controlled within 2.5 % of average design value.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.587-602
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• 2016

In structural reliability analysis, the response surface method is widely adopted because of its numerical efficiency. It should be understood that the response function must approximate the actual limit state function accurately in the main region influencing failure probability where it is evaluated. However, the size of main region influencing failure probability was not defined clearly in current response surface methods. In this study, the concept of sub-region of interest is constructed, and an improved response surface method is proposed based on the sub-region of interest. The sub-region of interest can clearly define the size of main region influencing failure probability, so that the accuracy of the evaluation of failure probability is increased. Some examples are introduced to demonstrate the efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed method for both numerical and implicit limit state functions.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.25 no.10
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• pp.1597-1604
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• 2001

Alternative computational scheme is presented fur reliability based optimal design using a modified advanced first order second moment (AFOSH) method. Both design variables and design parameters are considered as random variables about their nominal values. Each probability constraint is transformed into a sub -optimization problem and then is resolved with the modified Hasofer- Lind-Rackwitz-Fiessler (HL-RF) method for computational efficiency and convergence. A method of design sensitivity analysis for probability constraint is presented and tested through simple examples. The suggested method is examined by solving several examples and the results are compared with those of other methods.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.29 no.A
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• pp.101-110
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• 2009

Due to frequent occurrence of a localized torrential downpour caused by global warming and change of outflow tendency caused by rapid urbanization and industrialization, risk analysis must be carried out in levee design with uncertainty. In this study, reliability analysis was introduced to quantitatively evaluate the overtopping risk of levee by the uncertainty. First of all, breaking function was established as a function of flood stage and height of levee. All variables of breaking function were considered as random variables following any distribution functions, and the risk was defined as the possibility that the flood stage is formed higher than height of levee. The risk evaluation model was developed with AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach). The flood stage computed by 2-D numerical model FESWMS-2DH was used as input data for the model of levee risk evaluation. Risk for levee submergence were quantitatively presented for levee of Wol-Song-Cheon.