• Title/Summary/Keyword: Appraisal of Uncertainty

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Performance Appraisal of Total Maximum Daily Loads: Performance on Development/Reduction Plan and Water Quality Status of Unit Watershed (수질오염총량관리제의 성과평가: 개발/삭감계획의 이행실적 및 단위유역의 수질 현황)

  • Park, Jae Hong;Park, Jun Dae;Rhew, Doug Hee;Jung, Dong Il
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.481-493
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to performance appraisal of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs), especially in terms of performance on development & reduction plan and water quality status of unit watershed. Because load allocations for pollution sources were predicted redundantly by uncertainty of prediction, TMDLs master plan has been frequently changed to acquire load allocation for local development. Therefore, It need to be developed more resonable prediction techniques of water pollution sources to preventing the frequent change. It is suggested that the reduction amount have to be distributed properly during the planning period. In other words, it has not to be concentrated on the specific year (especially final year of the planning period). The reason why, if the reduction amount concentrate on the final year of the planning period, allotment loading amount could not be achieved in some cases (e.g., insufficiency of budget, extension of construction duration). If the development plan was developed including uncertain developments, it is necessary to be developed reduction plan considered with them. However, some of the plans in the reduction plan could not be accomplished in some case. Because, it is not considered financial abilities of local governments. Consequently, development plan must be accomplished to avoid uncertain developments, and to consider financial assistance to support the implementation of effective plan. Water quality has been improved in many unit watersheds due to the TMDLs, especially in geum river and yeongsang/seomjin river.

Structural Equation Model for Caregiving Experience of Families Providing Care for Family Members with Mental Disorders (정신질환자 가족의 돌봄경험 구조모형)

  • Oh, In Ohg;Kim, Sunah
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: This study was done to develop and test a structural model for caregiving experience including caregiving satisfaction and caregiving strain in families providing care for family members with a mental disorder. Methods: The Stress-appraisal-coping model was used as the conceptual framework and the structural equation model to confirm the path that explains what and how variables affect caregiving experience in these families. In this hypothesis model, exogenous variables were optimism, severity of illness and uncertainty. The endogenous variables were self efficacy, social support, caregiving satisfaction and caregiving strain. Data were collected using structured questionnaires. Results: Optimism and caregiving self-efficacy had significant direct and indirect effects on caregiving satisfaction. Optimism, severity of illness and uncertainty had significant direct and indirect effects on caregiving strain. The modified path model explained effects of optimism on caregiving self-efficacy with social support in the path structure as a mediator. Also, there were direct and indirect effects of optimism and uncertainty on caregiving satisfaction with social support and caregiving self-efficacy in the path structure as a mediators. Conclusion: Results suggest the need to improve caregiving self-efficacy of these families, establish support systems such as a mental health professional support programs for caregiving self-efficacy. Optimism, severity of illness and uncertainty perceived by families need to be considered in the development of support programs in order to increase their effectiveness.

Pricing Real Options Value Based On the Opportunity Cost Concept (기회비용개념을 이용한 실물옵션가치분석)

  • 김규태;김윤배
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.29-39
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    • 2001
  • Traditionally, companies have been concerned with making an investment decision either to go now or never to go forever. However, owing to the development of the theory of options pricing in a financial investment field and its introduction to the appraisal of real investments in these days, we are now partially allowed to derive the value of a managerial flexibility of real investment projects. In this paper, we derived a general mathematical model to price the option value of real investment projects assuming that they have only one-period of time under which uncertainty exists. This mathematical model was developed based on the opportunity cost concept. We will show a simple numerical example to illustrate how the mathematical model works comparing it with the existing models.

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A Study on Competitive Factor of Domestic Construction Firm (국내 건설기업의 경쟁력 평가요소에 관한 연구)

  • Jung Dae-Ryung;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.584-587
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    • 2004
  • After the IMF bailout, the Environment of Domestic Construction Industry had changed dramatically Therefore the IMF, Domestic Construction Firms are secured by the government regulations and some traditional Practices. However, due to the following reasons: a decrease in public works, an increase in uncertainty of market prediction, the change of bid system, and increase in construction firms, recently the competition among construction firms has became keen. Under the serious competition, In order that medium-size construction firms survive in the construction market, it is need to establish the strategy that could increase productivity. In order to establish the strategy, firstly, construction firms should set up an appraisal standard of construction firms. This paper propose a suitable appraisal standard that construction firm's strategy establish in environment change of the construction industry.

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Classifying Strategic Types Through Strategic Group Analysis In Construction Industry (국내 건설부문 전략군 분석을 통한 전략군집분류 -국내 중규모 건설기업을 중심으로-)

  • Jeong Dae-Ryung;Yoo Byeong-Gi;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.2 s.24
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    • pp.102-110
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    • 2005
  • After the IMF bailout, the Environment of Domestic Construction Industry had changed dramatically. Before the IMF, Domestic Construction Firms are secured by the government regulations and some traditional practices. However, due to the following reasons: a decrease in public works, an increase in uncertainty of market prediction, the change of bid system, and increase in construction firms, recently the competition among construction firms has became keen. Under the serious competition, in order that medium-size construction firms survive in the construction market, it is need to establish the strategy that could increase productivity. In order to establish the strategy, firstly, construction firms should set up an appraisal standard of construction firms. Consequently, This study will introduce companies' objective appraisal in domestic construction market as well as basal data for setting-up strategy through adaptation industry structure analysis of business administration for strategic group analysis and a company which has lagged behind competitive power among the competitive companies can choose a target strategic group which should be pursued it in the future through being classified according to a group taken analogical strategy.

Estimates of Time-varying Values of Traffic Information on Variable Message Sign (첨두 및 비첨두시 VMS 교통정보의 가치 변화 연구)

  • Rhee, Kyoung-Ah;Lee, Young-Ihn
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2012
  • The benefit of traffic information on variable message sign can be divided into two. At the public level, the benefit of ATIS is the travel time saving, which is not only induced from ATIS, but also mixed with that of ATMS. In the economic appraisal of ITS, the benefit of ATIS has so far been regarded as the derived benefit from ATMS. At the user level, the benefit of ATIS is reduced driver uncertainty through the forward traffic status information. User can benefit from the information on VMS and therefore may have the willingness to pay for it. Recently attempt to qualify the value of information on VMS was increased, but there was a danger of distorting or over-estimates of the ATIS benefit because the related studies didn't consider the time-dependent attributes of traffic information and provided the single value. Estimates of the time-varying value should be needed for a rigorous economic appraisal of ATIS. In this study, we varied the value of information on VMS according to peak and non peak trip and verified the hypothesis that time-varying of value was statistically significant.

The Effect of Attribute Alignability and Certainty on Consumer Preference (제품속성의 정렬 가능성과 확실성이 제품 선호도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Soo-Young;Song, Ju-Hun;Sohn, Young-Woo
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.153-172
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    • 2008
  • Products can maintain a high level of market share for many years by succeeding early in the development of a market. To overcome the benefit of pioneering a market, late entrants to the market can use differentiation strategies: developing novel attributes or enhancing preexisted attributes. In general, preexisted attributes are more memorable, but novel attributes can be weighted as heavily as preexisted attributes by contextual constraints. Based on the research of appraisal-congruent judgement, certainty appraisal dimension may affect the degree to which people engage in systematic or heuristic processing. This study examines the effects of alignability (the ease with which the attributes of one object can be aligned or mapped onto another object) of product attributes and certainty on consumer preferences for late entrants. Participants were induced to experience certainty and then completed a questionnaire. As predicted, participants induced certainty were likely to engage in heuristic processing, while participants induced uncertainty were likely to engage in systematic processing. This study provides an implication that companies should additionally consider consumers' feeling of certainty when launching a new brand.

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Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Energy Deposition in Tissue. The Problem of Effects from Low Doses of Ionizing Radiation

  • Le, Feinendegen;J, Booz
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.8-13
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    • 1992
  • Low doses of ionizing radiation from external or internal sources cause heterogeneous distribution of energy deposition events in the exposed biological system. With the cell being the individual element of the tissue system, the fraction of cells hit, the dose received by the hit, and the biological response of the cell to the dose received eventually determine the effect in tissue. The hit cell may experience detriment, such as change in its DNA leading to a malignant transformation, or it may derive benefit in terms of an adaptive response such as a temporary improvement of DNA repair or temporary prevention of effects from intracellular radicals through enhanced radical detoxification. These responses are protective also to toxic substances that are generated during normal metabolism. Within a multicellular system, the probability of detriment must be weighed against the probability of benefit through adaptive responses with protection against various toxic agents including those produced by normal metabolism. Because irradiation can principally induce both, detriment and adaptive responses, one type of affected cells may not be simply summed up at the expense of cells with other types of effects, in assessing risk to tissue. An inventory of various types of effects in the blood forming system of mammals, even with large ranges of uncertainty, uncovers the possibility of benefit to the system from exposure to low doses of low LET radiation. This experimental approach may complement epidemiological data on individuals exposed to low doses of ionizing radiation and may lead to a more rational appraisal of risk.

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The Conceptual Structure of Coping -Based on Patients receiving Hemodialysis - (대처(coping)의 개념적 구조 -혈액투석환자를 대상으로-)

  • Chang Sung-Ok;Lee Sook-Ja;Kim Jung-Sook
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Fundamentals of Nursing
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.42-59
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    • 2000
  • This study was done to analyze and develop the concept of coping in patients receiving hemodialysis. The Hybrid Model of concept development was applied to develop a conceptual structure of coping in patients receiving hemodialysis, which included a field study carried out using an in-dept interview with 18 patients in the hemodialysis room of one general hospital in Seoul. Data-analysis was done in three phases as suggested by the Hybrid Model. Finally, by summarizing the results from each case, the attributes of coping, its dimensions, definition and structure were outlined. According to the results of the study, a conceptual structure of coping which centers around stressors, stress-appraisal, strategy of coping and new definitions of coping in patients receiving hemodialysis was suggested : The coping of patients receiving hemodialysis is a process that deals with physical, emotional, inter-personal, and role stress caused by hemodialysis due to renal failure. It has a series of phases which include a phase that appraises the stressful situation based on past experience of chronic disease management, one's remaining rears, the extent of family support, the extent of economic dependency, inter-personal support. education and uncertainty, and a phase of developing coping strategies that con be affected by social support and self esteem. As a result of coping, patients adapt or not to the life situation of receiving hemodialysis.

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Assessment of concrete degradation in existing structures: a practical procedure

  • Porco, Francesco;Uva, Giuseppina;Fiore, Andrea;Mezzina, Mauro
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.701-721
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    • 2014
  • In the assessment of existing RC buildings, the reliable appraisal of the compressive strength of in-situ concrete is a fundamental step. Unfortunately, the data that can be obtained by the available testing methods are typically affected by a high level of uncertainty. Moreover, in order to derive indications about the degradation and ageing of the materials by on site tests, it is necessary to have the proper terms of comparison, that is to say, to know the reference data measured during the construction phases, that are often unavailable when the building is old. In the cases when such a comparison can be done, the in situ strength values typically turn out to be lower than the reference strength values (tests performed on taken samples during the construction). At this point, it is crucial to discern and quantify the specific effect induced by different factors: ageing of the materials; poor quality of the placement, consolidation or cure of the concrete during the construction phases; damage due to drilling. This paper presents a procedure for correlating the destructive compressive tests and non-destructive tests (ultrasonic pulse velocity tests) with the data documenting the compressive strength tested during the construction phases. The research work is aimed at identifying the factors that induce the difference between the in-situ strength and cubes taken from the concrete casting, and providing, so, useful information for the assessment procedure of the building.