• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권18호
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• pp.8589-8594
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• 2016

Background: Liver cancer is one of the most common causes of death in the world. In Korea, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major risk factor for liver cancer but infection rates have been declining since the implementation of the national vaccination program. In this study, we examined the secular trends in liver cancer mortality to distinguish the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. Materials and Methods: Data for the annual number of liver cancer deaths in Korean adults (30 years and older) were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service for the period from 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to study the shapes of and to detect the changes in mortality trends. Also, an age-period-cohort model was designed to study the effect of each age, period, and birth cohort on liver cancer mortality. Results: For both men and women, the age-standardized mortality rate for liver cancer increased from 1984 to 1993 and decreased thereafter. The highest liver cancer mortality rate has shifted to an older age group in recent years. Within the same birth cohort group, the mortality rate of older age groups has been higher than in the younger age groups. Age-period-cohort analysis showed an association with a high mortality rate in the older age group and in recent years, whereas a decreasing mortality rate were observed in the younger birth cohort. Conclusions: This study confirmed a decreasing trend in liver cancer mortality among Korean men and women after 1993. The trends in mortality rate may be mainly attributed to cohort effects.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제53권3호
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• pp.198-204
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• 2020

Objectives: This study aimed to analyze the mortality of heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) through an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: We used data on mortality due to cardiovascular disease from 1995 to 2018 in Japan, as determined by Vital Statistics. Age groups from 0 years to 99 years were defined by 5-year increments, and cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift. We used Bayesian APC analysis to decompose the changes in the diseases' mortality rates into age, period, and cohort effects. Results: The period effects for all diseases decreased during the analyzed periods for both men and women. The cohort effects for men increased substantially in cohorts born from around 1940 to the 1970s for all types of cardiovascular diseases. The cohort effects of HD decreased in the cohorts born in the 1970s or later for both men and women. Regarding IHD and CeVD, either a non-increase or decrease of cohort effects was confirmed for cohorts born in the 1970s or later for men, but the effects for women showed a continuously increasing trend in the cohorts born in the 1960s or later. Conclusions: The cohort effects for IHD and CeVD showed increasing trends in younger generations of women. This suggests that preventive approaches against cardiovascular diseases are needed, particularly for women.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.378-391
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• 2018

Background: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. Methods: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. Results: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show 'healthy ageing' phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of -1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%-1.80% in healthcare expenditure. Conclusion: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, 'healthy ageing effect' suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.

• 한국경제지리학회지
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.166-181
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• 2020

본 논문은 수도권과 비수도권 거주자를 대상으로 1998~2018년 한국노동패널(KLIPS) 조사자료의 APC(Age-Period-Cohort) 모형 분석을 통해 지역별 소득 불평등의 강도와 추세 및 소득 불평등의 지역 간 격차 추세를 비교·분석한다. 주요 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 코호트와 연령효과 양자의 경우 수도권에 거주하는 소위 베이비붐 및 '386세대'를 포함하는 50~60대는 비수도권의 다른 연령대 및 코호트와 비교해 상대적인 소득 불평등 완화 효과가 있다. 둘째, 소득 불평등의 지역 간 격차를 설명하는 데에 미시적인 개인 특성도 무시할 수 없지만, 그보다는 누락변수의 구조적·제도적 요인과 특성변수의 사회적인 차별 효과가 더 의미가 있다. 전반적으로 코호트 내 및 코호트 간 소득 불평등이 중첩되어 나타나고 있다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권9호
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• pp.3951-3955
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• 2015

Background: Colorectal cancer mortality has started to decrease in several developed countries in Asia. The current study aimed to present the long-term trends in colorectal cancer mortality in Korea using joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort modeling. Materials and Methods: The number of colorectal cancer deaths and the population for each 5-year age group were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984-2013 for adults 30 years and older. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to determine changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates, and age-period-cohort analysis was performed to describe trends in colorectal cancer mortality using the intrinsic estimator method. Results: In men, the age-standardized mortality rate for colorectal cancer increased from 1984 to 2003, and the mortality rates stabilized thereafter, whereas the mortality rate of colorectal cancer in women has decreased since 2004. The age-specific mortality rate of colorectal cancer increased in both men and women over time, whereas decreases in the age-specific mortality rate in younger cohorts were observed. In the age-period-cohort analysis, old age and recent period were associated with higher mortality for both men and women. The birth cohort born after 1919 showed reduced colorectal cancer mortality in both men and women. Conclusions: Our study showed a recent decreasing trend in colorectal cancer mortality in women and a stable trend in men after 2003-2004. These changes in colorectal cancer mortality may be attributed to birth cohort effects.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제45권5호
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• pp.323-328
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• 2012

Objectives: Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. Methods: We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. Results: All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. Conclusions: The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.409-418
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• 2020

Objectives: This study conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of trends in healthy lifestyle behaviors in Japan. Methods: We used National Health and Nutrition Survey data on salt intake and prevalence of smoking, drinking, and physical activity between 1995 and 2018 in Japan. Age groups were defined from 20 years to 69 years old in 10-year increments. Cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift, and cohorts born in 1926-1935 (first cohort) until 1989-1998 (last cohort) were examined. We conducted a Bayesian APC analysis, calculating estimated values for each behavior by age group, period, and cohort. Results: Estimated salt intake decreased from cohorts born in the 1930s to the 1960s, but increased thereafter in both genders, and the magnitude of increase was larger for men. Estimated smoking prevalence increased in the cohorts starting from the 1930s for men and the 1940s for women, and then decreased starting in the cohorts born in the 1970s for both genders. Although estimated drinking prevalence decreased starting in the cohorts born in approximately 1960 for men, for women it increased until the cohorts born in approximately 1970. Estimated physical activity prevalence decreased starting in the cohorts born in the 1940s in both genders, but the magnitude of decrease was larger for women. Conclusions: Trends in cohort effects differed by gender, which might be related to changes in the social environment for women. Improvements in dietary and exercise habits are required in more recently born cohorts of both genders.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제17권9호
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• pp.396-405
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• 2017

본 연구의 목적은 위계적 APC(Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort)모형과 2006~2016년 한국복지패널자료를 활용하여 베이비부머세대를 포함한 중장년 노년층(32~76세)의 가계부채규모 결정요인을 연령(Age), 기간(Period), 코호트(Cohort)로 구분하여 분석하는데 있다. 연구 분석에 사용된 대상자는 총 86,056명이다. 연구결과에 의하면 가계부채에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 연령효과와 기간효과는 통계적으로 유의하게 나타났으나, 베이비부머세대를 포함하는 특정시기 출생연도별 코호트(Cohort)효과는 통계적으로 유의하지 않았다. 연령이 한 단위 증가하면 가계부채도 353만원 증가하였지만 가계부채 증가폭은 연령증가에 따라 점차 감소하였다. 또한 연령이외의 개인단위변수로 경제활동여부, 건강상태 등이 가계부채규모에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 작용했다. 미취업자일수록, 건강상태가 좋지 않을수록 가계부채가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Human Ecology Research
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• 제57권1호
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• pp.51-71
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• 2019

This study analyzed the poverty rate by poverty dimension, correlation between multidimensional poverty, variables that affected the number of poverty dimension and the probability of the poor or not. The sample consisted of 6,361 elderly households (1,561 baby boom birth cohort, 1,793 post-liberation birth cohort, 3,007 Japanese colonial period birth cohort) taken from the $12^{th}$ Korean Welfare Panel Study. First, the highest poverty rate among the baby boom birth cohort was 62.8% of employment poverty. The highest rate among the post-liberation birth cohort and Japanese colonial period birth cohort, was 82.5%, 92.3% of health poverty, respectively. Second, the highest coefficient in the baby boom birth cohort was .354 for asset poverty and relation poverty. In the remaining two cohorts, the coefficient for asset poverty and relation poverty was the highest at .268, .284, respectively. Third, the average number of poverty dimensions was 2.318 of the baby boom birth cohort, 2.921 of the post-liberation birth cohort, 3.564 of the poverty in the Japanese colonial period birth cohort. Also, the poverty rate for each cohort was 20.179%, 28.779%, and 50.083%, respectively. Fourth, the significant variables in all cohorts were gender, education, marital status, residence, and equalized ordinary income for the multiple regression analysis on the number of poverty dimensions. Additionally, age of the post-liberation birth cohort was significant, age and family numbers of the Japanese colonial period birth cohort were significant. Significant variables in logistic analysis on the probability of poverty or not were the same as those of regression analysis.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제13권9호
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• pp.4501-4504
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• 2012

In recent decades, decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality have been observed across China. We here describe esophageal cancer mortality trends in Linzhou city, a high-incidence region of esophageal cancer in China, during 1988-2010 and make a esophageal cancer mortality projection in the period 2011-2020 using a Bayesian approach. Age standardized mortality rates were estimated by direct standardization to the World population structure in 1985. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Linzhou during 1988-2010 and to estimate future trends for the period 2011-2020. Age-adjusted rates for men and women decreased from 1988 to 2005 and changed little thereafter. Risk increased from 30 years of age until the very elderly. Period effects showed little variation in risk throughout 1988-2010. In contrast, a cohort effect showed risk decreased greatly in later cohorts. Forecasting, based on BAPC modeling, resulted in a increasing burden of mortality and a decreasing age standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer in Linzhou city. The decrease of esophageal cancer mortality risk since the 1930 cohort could be attributable to the improvements of socialeconomic environment and lifestyle. The standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer should decrease continually. The effect of aging on the population could explain the increase in esophageal mortality projected for 2020.