• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.73-84
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• 2020

Existing studies disagree over the core predictors of firm-level financial choices in developing countries. The general practice only validates the traditional capital structure model, which leads to inconsistency and a lack of novelty. This study removed overfitting issues among existing factors and presented the most reliable and advanced capital structure model in Pakistani firms. The panel data include 368 Pakistani companies from 19 non-financial sectors over the period 2004 to 2017. We apply Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria to remove overfitting issues among inconsistent proxies in the capital structure model. The fixed effects regression is used for basic results and the Generalized Method of Moments is applied to control the endogeneity. Besides the conventional proxies, we report that credit rating, distance from bankruptcy, managerial concentration, and institutional quality are the most advanced capital structure determinants in Pakistan. These predictors remain significant across firm size and growth levels. Also, the findings confirm that new predictors are reliable to define capital structure dynamics and improve the speed of adjustment in overall and sub-sample analysis. The major findings suggest that managers and policymakers should consider these advanced predictors to design their financial settings in firms.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.11
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• pp.6883-6888
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• 2013

Background: Platinum based concurrent chemo-radiation is the de-facto standard of care in the non-surgical management of locally-advanced head and neck cancer of squamous origin. Three-weekly single agent cisplatin at 100 $mg/m^2$ concurrent with radical radiotherapy has demonstrated consistent improvement in loco-regional control and survival. This improvement is however at the cost of considerable hematologic toxicity and poor overall compliance. The routine use of this regime is improbable in developing countries with limited resources. We therefore aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of an alternative regime of weekly cisplatin and concurrent radiotherapy in such patients. Materials and Methods: January-05 and April-12, 188 patients of locally-advanced head and neck cancer of squamous origin were treated with concurrent weekly-cisplatin at $35mg/m^2$ and conventional radiotherapy 60-66Gy/30-33 fractions/5days per week. Results: Overall, 95% patients received planned doses of RT while 74% completed within the stipulated overall treatment time of <50 days. Eighty-two percent received at-least 5 weekly cycles. Grade-III/IV mucositis was seen in 58%/9% respectively, which resulted in mean weight loss of 9.2% from a pre-treatment mean of 54.5 kg. Grade-III hematologic toxicity-0.5%; grade II nephrotoxicity-2.5% and grade III emesis-3% were also seen. Grade-III/IV subcutaneous toxicity-10%/1% and grade-III/IV xerostomia-10%/0% were observed. Complete responses at the primary site, regional nodes and overall disease were seen in 86%, 89% and 83% patients respectively. The median and 5-years disease-free survival were 26 months and 39.4% respectively, while the median and overall survival were 27 months and 41.8% respectively. Conclusions: Weekly-cisplatin at 35 $mg/m^2$ when delivered concurrently with conventional radical RT (at-least 66y/33 fractions) in locally-advanced head and neck cancer is well tolerated with minimal hematologic and neprologic toxicity and can be routinely delivered on an out-patient basis. It is an effective alternative to the standard 3-weekly cisplatin especially in the context of developing countries.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.12
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• pp.4909-4913
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• 2014

Malignant ovarian germ cell tumors (MOGCT) are rare neoplasms that most frequently occur in women at a young reproductive age. There have been limited data regarding this disease from Southeast Asian countries. We therefore conducted a retrospective study to analyze the clinical characteristics and the treatment outcomes of MOGCT treated at our institute between January, 2003 and December, 2012. Seventy-six patients were recruited from this period with the mean age of 21.6 years and 11.8% were pre-puberty. The two most common symptoms were pelvic mass and pelvic pain. Two-thirds of the studied patients presented at an early stage. The most common histology was immature teratoma (34.2%) followed by endodermal sinus tumor (28.9%), dysgerminoma (25%), mixed type (10.5%) and choriocarcinoma (1.3%). Over 80% of these patients received fertility sparing surgery and about 70% received adjuvant chemotherapy with the complete response rate at 73.3% and partial response at 11.1%. The most frequent chemotherapy was BEP regimen (bleomycin, etoposide, cisplatin). With the mean follow up time at 56.0 months, 12 patients (15.8%) developed recurrence and only an advanced stage was the independent prognostic factor. The ten year progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival rate of our study were 81.9% and 86.2%, respectively. In conclusion, MOGCT often occurs at a young age. Treatment with fertility sparing operations and adjuvant chemotherapy with a BEP regimen showed a good outcome. An advanced stage is a significant prognostic factor for recurrence.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.1273-1276
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• 2012

Purpose: The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) has been increasing in Asian countries including Thailand. Double contrast barium enema (DCBE) is one of the investigation tools used in CRC screening. This study aimed to determine the incidence of colorectal neoplasm detected at screening by DCBE in Thai people. Methods: The computerized radiology database of screening DCBE in Thai adults between June 2009 and October 2011 at the Faculty of Medicine, Siriraj Hospital, was reviewed. DCBE examination performed in a surveillance program after curative CRC resection or the removal of colorectal polyps was also considered as a screening DCBE. Results: A total of 819 screening DCBEs performed during this 28-month period were analyzed. The mean age of patients was $59.8{\pm}13.6$ years. Of the total, 467 (57%) were male. A family history of CRC and a previous history of curative CRC resection or polyp removal were noted in 34 patients (4%) and 124 patients (15%), respectively. A total of 31 patients (3.8%; 95%CI = 2.7%-5.3%) were reported to have colorectal polyp or mass demonstrated on DCBE. Of these, follow-up endoscopy was performed in 20 cases (65%). According to pathological results, the incidence of advanced adenoma and CRC detected at screening DCBE was 0.7% (95%CI = 0.3%-1.6%; n=6) and 0.4% (95%CI = 0.1%-1.1%; n=3), respectively. Conclusions: The screening DCBE performed in Thai adults had a diagnostic yield of 0.7% for advanced adenoma and 0.4% for CRC.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.1593-1596
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• 2013

Background: To evaluate outcomes using a Thai herbal medicine, Vilac Plus (G716/45) with standard radiotherapy in comparison with historic controls from literature reports of the results of treatment in stage IIIB cervical cancer. Materials and Methods: Between March 2003 and June 2005, thirty patients with advanced cervical cancer stage IIIB-IV who had a poor performance status were treated by palliative radiotherapy along with an adjuvant daily dose of 15-30 ml of Thai herbal tonic solution (Vilac Plus G716/45) administered orally three times after meals as an additional supportive therapy. The results were analyzed from the aspect of the overall survival rates with curves estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results:.The median follow -up time for stage IIIB was 4.2 years with a range of 7.9 months - 6.1 years. The overall 1, 3, and 5 year survival rates for stage IIIB were 88%, 60% and 52%. Conclusions: The overall 5 year survival rate for stage IIIB with a poor performance status was 52% when compared with 34-54.8% for historic controls. The combined complementary palliative radiotherapy (CCPR) had low rates of radiation morbidity. It was a simple technique and feasible for developing countries. The pilot study was limited by the small number of patients and further research will be necessary to assess interrelated and confounding factors in treatment of cervical cancer patients.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.13 no.8
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• pp.3809-3813
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• 2012

Background and Objectives: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major health problem in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Our aim was to characterize the epidemiology of CRC in the Saudi population. Design and Setting: Retrospective analysis of all cases of CRC recorded in the Saudi Cancer Registry (SCR) between January 2001 and December 2006 amongst Saudi citizens in KSA. Patients and Methods: Data were retrieved from the database of the SCR. Descriptive statistics was performed using SPSS. Results: A total of 4,201 cases of CRC were registered in the SCR. The incidence of CRC increased between 2001 and 2006. The mean age of patients at the time of diagnosis was 58 years; most patients were above 45 years of age (n=3322; 79.1%). At the time of diagnosis, 977 patients (23.0%) presented with localized disease and 1,018 (24.0%) had distant metastasis. The most frequent pathological variant was adenocarcinoma (73%), with grade 2 (moderately differentiated) being the most common grade among all variants (61%). For all cancer grades, the frequency of CRC was significantly higher among patients >45 years (P=0.004), who presented with more advanced disease (stages III and IV) (P=0.012). Based on logistic regression, age >45 years was associated with advanced regional presentation (P=0.001). Tumor grade was associated with advanced regional presentation and metastasis. Conclusions: There was an increase in the incidence of CRC between 2001 and 2006. The age at the time of diagnosis was low when compared with reports from developed countries. A nationwide approach is needed to encourage and illustrate the importance of screening programs.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.3223-3228
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• 2013

Gene expression profiling (GEP) has identified several molecular subtypes of breast cancer, with different clinico-pathologic features and exhibiting different responses to chemotherapy. However, GEP is expensive and not available in the developing countries where the majority of patients present at advanced stage. The St Gallen Consensus in 2011 proposed use of a simplified, four immunohistochemical (IHC) biomarker panel (ER, PR, HER2, Ki67/Tumor Grade) for molecular classification. The present study was conducted in 75 newly diagnosed patients of breast cancer with large (>5cm) tumors to evaluate the association of IHC surrogate molecular subtype with the clinical response to presurgical chemotherapy, evaluated by the WHO criteria, 3 weeks after the third cycle of 5 flourouracil, adriamycin, cyclophosphamide (FAC regimen). The subtypes of luminal, basal-like and HER2 enriched were found to account for 36.0 % (27/75), 34.7 % (26/75) and 29.3% (22/75) of patients respectively. Ten were luminal A and 14 luminal B (8 HER2 negative and 6HER2 positive). The triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) was most sensitive to chemotherapy with 19% achieving clinical-complete-response (cCR) followed by HER2 enriched (2/22 (9%) cCR), luminal B (1/6 (7%) cCR) and luminal A (0/10 (0%) cCR). Heterogeneity was observed within each subgroup, being most marked in the TNBC although the most responding tumors, 8% developing clinical-progressive-disease. The study supports association of molecular subtypes with response to chemotherapy in patients with advanced breast cancer and the existence of further heterogeneity within subtypes.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.148-148
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• 2022

Spatiotemporal precipitation data is one of the primary quantities in hydrological as well as climatological studies. Despite the fact that the estimation of these data has made considerable progress owing to advances in remote sensing, the discrepancy between satellite-derived precipitation product (SPP) data and observed data is still remarkable. This study aims to propose an effective deep learning model (DLM) for bias correction of SPPs. In which TRMM (The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), CMORPH (CPC Morphing technique), and PERSIANN-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) are three SPPs with a spatial resolution of 0.25o exploited for bias correction, and APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) data is used as a benchmark to evaluate the effectiveness of DLM. We selected the Mekong River Basin as a case study area because it is one of the largest watersheds in the world and spans many countries. The adjusted dataset has demonstrated an impressive performance of DLM in bias correction of SPPs in terms of both spatial and temporal evaluation. The findings of this study indicate that DLM can generate reliable estimates for the gridded satellite-based precipitation bias correction.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.9
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• pp.5095-5099
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• 2013

Background: The overall incidence of breast cancer in South Asian countries, including Nepal, is low compared to Western countries. However, the incidence of breast cancer among young women is relatively high. Breast cancer in such cases is characterized by a relatively unfavorable prognosis and unusual pathological features. The aim of this study was to investigate clinico-pathological and biological characteristics in younger breast cancer patients (<40 years) and compare these with their older counterparts. Materials and Methods: Nine hundred and forty four consecutive female breast cancer patients, admitted to the Department of Surgery, Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal between November 1997 and October 2012, were retrospectively analyzed. Results: Out of the 944 female breast cancer patients, 263 (27.9%) were <40 years. The mean age was $34.6{\pm}5.0$ years among younger patients compared to $54.1{\pm}9.9$ for those ${\geq}40$ years. The mean age at menarche was also significantly lower ($13.5{\pm}1.5$ vs $14.2{\pm}1.5$ years p=0.001) while the mean duration of symptoms was significantly longer (7.6 vs 6.5 months p=0.004). Family history of breast cancer was evident in 3.0% of the young women versus 0.3% in the older one. Mammography was performed less frequently in younger patients (59.7%), compared to older (74.4%), and was of diagnostic benefit in only 20% of younger patients compared to 85% of older ones. At diagnosis, the mean tumor diameter was significantly larger in young women ($5.0{\pm}2.5$ vs $4.5{\pm}2.4cm$, p=0.005). Axillary lymph nodes were positive in 73% of younger patients and 59% of older patients. In the younger group, the proportion of stage III or IV disease was higher (55.1% vs 47.1%, $p{\leq}0.05$). The proportion of breast conserving surgery was higher in young patients (25.1% vs 8.7%) and a higher proportion of younger patients receive neoadjuvant chemotherapy (9.9% vs 2.8%). The most common histological type was ductal carcinoma (93.1% vs 86%). The proportion of histological grade II or III was higher in younger patients (55.9% vs 24.5%). Similarly, in the younger group, lymphatic and vascular invasion was more common (63.2% vs 34.3% and 39.8% vs 25.4%, respectively). Patients in the younger age group exhibited lower estrogen and/or progesterone receptor positivity (34.7% vs 49.8%). Although statistically not significant, the proportion of triple negative tumors in younger age group was higher (22.4% vs 13.6%). Conclusions: Breast cancer in young Nepalese women represents over one quarter of all female breast cancers, many being diagnosed at an advanced stage. Tumors in young women exhibit more aggressive biological features. Hence, breast cancer in young women is worth special attention for earlier detection.