• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.27-37
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• 1994

To catch the relative importance of varietal and environmental variation in various grain quality components associated with palatability of cooked rice, grain appearance, milling recovery, several physicochemical properties of milled rice and texture or eating quality of cooked rice for rice materials of five japonica cultivars, produced at four locations of the mid-mountainous and alpine area of Korea in 1989, were evaluated and analyzed the obtained data. Highly significant varietal and locational variations were detected in 1000-grain weight, amylose content, K/Mg ratio, gelatinization temperature, peak viscosity, breakdown and setback viscosities as compared with variety x location interaction variation. Also, marked locational variations were recongnized in milling recovery from rough to brwon rice, alkali digestibility and protein content, and significant varietal variation was caught in stickiness /hardness ratio of cooked rice. The variety x location interaction variation was especially large in quality components of grain appearance and ripening, palatability of cooked rice and consistency viscosity. One thousand kernel weight was heaviest in Jinbuolbyeo and Odaebyeo, and the unfilled grain ratio was lowest in Jinbuolbyeo. Odaebyeo showed slightly' lower ratio of intact and clear milled rice because of more chalky rice kernels compared with other cultivars. Amylose content of Jinbuolbyeo and Sobaegbyeo was about 1% lower than that of others and K/Mg ratio of Odaebyeo was the lowest one among rice materials. Odaebyeo, Sobaegbyeo and Jinbuolbyeo revealed significantly low gelatinization temperature and setback viscosity while high peak and breakdown viscosities. Cholwon rice showed the greatest kernel weight, good grain filling but lowest ratio of intact and clear milled rice while Jinbu rices exhibited the highest milling recovery from rough to brown rice and ratio of sound milled rice. Amylose content of milled rice in Jinbu rices was about 2-3% lower than those in other locations. Protein content of polished rice was about 1% lower in rice materials of middle zone than those of southern part of Korea. K/Mg ratio of milled rice was highest in Jinbu rice and potassium content was slightly higher in the rice materials of middle region than in those of southern region. Alkali digestion value and gelatinization temperature of polished rice was markedly high in Jinbu rices as compared with other locations. Breakdown viscosity was hightest in Chlown rices and next higher with the order of Hwaso>Unbong>Jinbu rices, and setback viscosity was the quite contrary tendency with breakdown. The stickiness /hardness ratio of cooked rice was relatively higher value in Cholwon rices than in the others and the palatability of cooked rice was a little better in Unbong and Cholwon rices than in Jinbu and Hwaso rices, although variety x location interaction variation was large. The rice materials can be classified largely into two groups of Jinbu and the others by the distribution on the plane of 1st and 2nd principal components (about 60% of total informations) contracted from twelve grain quality properties closely associated with eating quality of cooked rice. Also, Jinbu and the other rices were divided into two and three rice groups respectively. Varietal variation of overall rice quality was smallest in Hwaso. The most superior rice group in overall quality evaluation included Odaebyeo produced at Cholwon, Unbong and Hwaso, and Sobaegbyeo grown at Unbong

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.41-49
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• 2003

Methane emission was measured in a rice paddy under different water management and organic amendments. Methane emission from planted chambers and unplanted chambers was monitored to evaluate the rice-mediated methane emission. In flooding methane emission from planted chambers with NPK, NPK(+P), was $0.174g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$ while that from unplanted chambers with NPK, NPK(-P), was $0.046g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$ Methane emission from planted chambers with rice straw compost amendment, RSC(+P), was $0.214g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, while that from unplanted chambers with rice straw compost amendment, RSC(-P), was $0.076g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$. Methane emission from planted chambers with rice straw amendment in Fehruary, RS2(+P), was $0.328g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, while that from unplanted chambers with rice straw amendment in February, RS2(-P), was $0.1g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$. Methane emission from planted chambers with rice straw amendment in May, RS5(+P), was $0.414g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, while that from unplanted chamhers with rice straw amendment in May, RS5(-P), was $0.187g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$. In intermittent irrigation methane emission from NPK(+P) was $0.115g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, while that from NPK(-P) was $0.041g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$. Methane emission from RSC(+P) was $0.137g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, while that from RSC(-P) was $0.06g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$. Methane emission from RS2(+P) was $0.204g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, while that from RS2(-P) was $0.09g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$. Methane emission from RS5(+P) was $0.273g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, while that from RS5(-P) was $0.13g\;CH_4\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$. Methane transport via rice plant under flooding for NPK plot, RSC plot, RS2 plot and RS5 plot was 73.6%, 64.5%, 69.5% and 54.8%, respectively, and mean was 65.6%. Methane transport via rice plants under intermittent irrigation for NPK plot, RSC plot, RS2 plot and RS5 plot was 64.3%, 59.2%, 55.9% and 52.4%, respectively, and mean was 58.0%.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.533-542
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to provide basic information and policy implications needed to balance the supply and demand for dietitian by projecting supply and demand for dietitian. The data from the Ministry of Health Welfare and Family on the number of licensed nutritionist, resident registration data of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security, and health insurance qualification data of the National Health Insurance Corporation were used to examine the current status of supply. To project the supply of nutritionist workforce, the in-out moves method and demographic method were used. The ratios of nutritionist to population and GDP, and that of other countries were applied as the demand projection method. According to the study results, the projection on the imbalance of supply and demand for dietitian by year 2021 differs depending on the method used. First, according to the results based on age-adjusted population ratio, there is an oversupply of 1,643 dietitians in year 2010, and 2,076 dietitians in year 2020. Second, although the projection on the imbalance of the supply and demand for dietitian differs depending on whether the GDD is calculated in won(￦) or dollar($). it is expected that there will be an oversupply in general. Third, as to the scenario using the nutritionist ratio in foreign countries, the oversupply of dietitian is likely in Korea, under any scenario, when comparing the nutritionist supply projection with the demand projection based on the nutritionist ratio in the United States. However, the projection of the supply and demand varies in each scenario when the European nutritionist ratio is applied. Under European 'scenario 1', an oversupply is expected, whereas under 'scenario 2', a shortage of supply is expected. A careful approach is required in interpreting the supply and demand projection using criteria of other countries, because dietitian assumes different roles and functions in each country. Although a slight oversupply of nutritionist workforce is projected, it does not cause a major problem as the demand for diet therapy is expected to rise due to aging and the increase of chronic diseases, and as the demand for clinical dietitians in hospitals increases. Accordingly, the demand for dietitians will rise and, in this context, the oversupply of nutritionist will not incur much problem. However, the nutritionist qualification is much too open in Korea, and this has a negative effect on the quality of the nutritionist workforce. Therefore, it is important that the nutritionist qualifications and requirements are reinforced in the future, enhance the quality level of the nutritionist supply, and maintain the balance between the supply and demand.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.371-383
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• 1999

This report gave analysis of food demand both in Korea and Japan through introducing the concept of cohort analysis to the conventional demand model. This research was done to clarify the factors which determine food demand of the household. The traits of the new model for demand analysis are to consider and quantify those effects on food demand not only of economic factors such as expenditure and price but also of non-economic factors such as the age and birth cohort of the householder. The results of the analysis can be summarized as follows: 1) The comparison of the item-wise elasticities of food demand demonstrates that the expenditure elasticity is higher in Korea than in Japan and that the expenditure elasticity is -0.1 for cereal and more than 1 for eating-out in both countries. In respect to price elasticity, the absolute values of all the items except alcohol and cooked food are higher in the Korea than in Japan, and especially the price elasticities of beverages, dairy products and fruit are predominantly higher in Japan. In this way, both expenditure and price elasticities of a large number of items are higher in Korea than in Japan, which may be explained from the fact that the level of expenditure is higher in Japan than in Korea. 2) In both of Korea and Japan, as the householder grows older, the expenditure for each item increases and the composition of expenditure changes in such a way that these moves may be regarded as due to the age effect. However, there are both similarities and differences in the details of such moves between Korea and Japan. Those two countries have this trait in common that the young age groups of the householder spend more on dairy products and middle age groups spend more on cake than other age groups. In the Korea, however, there can be seen a certain trend that higher age groups spend more on a large number of items, reflecting the fact that there are more two-generation families in higher age groups. Japan differs from Korea in that expenditure in Japan is diversified, depending upon the age group. For example, in Japan, middle age groups spend more on cake, cereal, high-caloric food like meat and eating-out while older age groups spend more for Japanese-style food like fish/shellfish and vegetable/seaweed, and cooked food. 3) The effect of the birth cohort effect was also demonstrated. The birth cohort effect was introduced under the supposition that the food circumstances under which the householder was born and brought up would determine the current expenditure. Thus, the following was made clear: older generations in both countries placed more emphasis upon stable food in their composition of food consumption; the share of livestock products, oil/fats and externalized food was higher in the food composition of younger generation; differences in food composition among generations were extremely large in Korea while they were relatively small in Japan; and Westernization and externalization of diet made rapid increases simultaneously with generation changes in Korea while they made any gradual increases in Japan during the same time period. 4) The four major factors which impact the long-term change of food demand of the household are expenditure, price, the age of the householder, and the birth cohort of the householder. Investigations were made as to which factor had the largest impact. As a result, it was found that the price effect was the smallest in both countries, and that the relative importance of the factor-by-factor effects differed among the two countries: in Korea the expenditure effect was greater than the effects of age and birth cohort while in Japan the effects of non-economic factors such as the age and birth cohort of householder were greater than those of economic factors such as expenditures.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.191-204
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• 2015

According to the '2013 Performance Assessment Report on the Financial Program' from the National Assembly Budget Office, the unfilled recruitment ratio of Software(SW) Developers in South Korea was 25% in the 2012 fiscal year. Moreover, the unfilled recruitment ratio of highly-qualified SW developers reaches almost 80%. This phenomenon is intensified in small and medium enterprises consisting of less than 300 employees. Young job-seekers in South Korea are increasingly avoiding becoming a SW developer and even the current SW developers want to change careers, which hinders the national development of IT industries. The Korean government has recently realized the problem and implemented policies to foster young SW developers. Due to this effort, it has become easier to find young SW developers at the beginning-level. However, it is still hard to recruit highly-qualified SW developers for many IT companies. This is because in order to become a SW developing expert, having a long term experiences are important. Thus, improving job continuity intentions of current SW developers is more important than fostering new SW developers. Therefore, this study surveyed the job continuity intentions of SW developers and analyzed the factors associated with them. As a method, we carried out a survey from September 2014 to October 2014, which was targeted on 130 SW developers who were working in IT industries in South Korea. We gathered the demographic information and characteristics of the respondents, work environments of a SW industry, and social positions for SW developers. Afterward, a regression analysis and a decision tree method were performed to analyze the data. These two methods are widely used data mining techniques, which have explanation ability and are mutually complementary. We first performed a linear regression method to find the important factors assaociated with a job continuity intension of SW developers. The result showed that an 'expected age' to work as a SW developer were the most significant factor associated with the job continuity intention. We supposed that the major cause of this phenomenon is the structural problem of IT industries in South Korea, which requires SW developers to change the work field from developing area to management as they are promoted. Also, a 'motivation' to become a SW developer and a 'personality (introverted tendency)' of a SW developer are highly importantly factors associated with the job continuity intention. Next, the decision tree method was performed to extract the characteristics of highly motivated developers and the low motivated ones. We used well-known C4.5 algorithm for decision tree analysis. The results showed that 'motivation', 'personality', and 'expected age' were also important factors influencing the job continuity intentions, which was similar to the results of the regression analysis. In addition to that, the 'ability to learn' new technology was a crucial factor for the decision rules of job continuity. In other words, a person with high ability to learn new technology tends to work as a SW developer for a longer period of time. The decision rule also showed that a 'social position' of SW developers and a 'prospect' of SW industry were minor factors influencing job continuity intensions. On the other hand, 'type of an employment (regular position/ non-regular position)' and 'type of company (ordering company/ service providing company)' did not affect the job continuity intension in both methods. In this research, we demonstrated the job continuity intentions of SW developers, who were actually working at IT companies in South Korea, and we analyzed the factors associated with them. These results can be used for human resource management in many IT companies when recruiting or fostering highly-qualified SW experts. It can also help to build SW developer fostering policy and to solve the problem of unfilled recruitment of SW Developers in South Korea.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.59-77
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• 2012

This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.111-124
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• 2018

This study aims to develop a classification model for predicting the occurrence of hyperlipidemia, one of the chronic diseases. Prior studies applying data mining techniques for predicting disease can be classified into a model design study for predicting cardiovascular disease and a study comparing disease prediction research results. In the case of foreign literatures, studies predicting cardiovascular disease were predominant in predicting disease using data mining techniques. Although domestic studies were not much different from those of foreign countries, studies focusing on hypertension and diabetes were mainly conducted. Since hypertension and diabetes as well as chronic diseases, hyperlipidemia, are also of high importance, this study selected hyperlipidemia as the disease to be analyzed. We also developed a model for predicting hyperlipidemia using SVM and meta learning algorithms, which are already known to have excellent predictive power. In order to achieve the purpose of this study, we used data set from Korea Health Panel 2012. The Korean Health Panel produces basic data on the level of health expenditure, health level and health behavior, and has conducted an annual survey since 2008. In this study, 1,088 patients with hyperlipidemia were randomly selected from the hospitalized, outpatient, emergency, and chronic disease data of the Korean Health Panel in 2012, and 1,088 nonpatients were also randomly extracted. A total of 2,176 people were selected for the study. Three methods were used to select input variables for predicting hyperlipidemia. First, stepwise method was performed using logistic regression. Among the 17 variables, the categorical variables(except for length of smoking) are expressed as dummy variables, which are assumed to be separate variables on the basis of the reference group, and these variables were analyzed. Six variables (age, BMI, education level, marital status, smoking status, gender) excluding income level and smoking period were selected based on significance level 0.1. Second, C4.5 as a decision tree algorithm is used. The significant input variables were age, smoking status, and education level. Finally, C4.5 as a decision tree algorithm is used. In SVM, the input variables selected by genetic algorithms consisted of 6 variables such as age, marital status, education level, economic activity, smoking period, and physical activity status, and the input variables selected by genetic algorithms in artificial neural network consist of 3 variables such as age, marital status, and education level. Based on the selected parameters, we compared SVM, meta learning algorithm and other prediction models for hyperlipidemia patients, and compared the classification performances using TP rate and precision. The main results of the analysis are as follows. First, the accuracy of the SVM was 88.4% and the accuracy of the artificial neural network was 86.7%. Second, the accuracy of classification models using the selected input variables through stepwise method was slightly higher than that of classification models using the whole variables. Third, the precision of artificial neural network was higher than that of SVM when only three variables as input variables were selected by decision trees. As a result of classification models based on the input variables selected through the genetic algorithm, classification accuracy of SVM was 88.5% and that of artificial neural network was 87.9%. Finally, this study indicated that stacking as the meta learning algorithm proposed in this study, has the best performance when it uses the predicted outputs of SVM and MLP as input variables of SVM, which is a meta classifier. The purpose of this study was to predict hyperlipidemia, one of the representative chronic diseases. To do this, we used SVM and meta-learning algorithms, which is known to have high accuracy. As a result, the accuracy of classification of hyperlipidemia in the stacking as a meta learner was higher than other meta-learning algorithms. However, the predictive performance of the meta-learning algorithm proposed in this study is the same as that of SVM with the best performance (88.6%) among the single models. The limitations of this study are as follows. First, various variable selection methods were tried, but most variables used in the study were categorical dummy variables. In the case with a large number of categorical variables, the results may be different if continuous variables are used because the model can be better suited to categorical variables such as decision trees than general models such as neural networks. Despite these limitations, this study has significance in predicting hyperlipidemia with hybrid models such as met learning algorithms which have not been studied previously. It can be said that the result of improving the model accuracy by applying various variable selection techniques is meaningful. In addition, it is expected that our proposed model will be effective for the prevention and management of hyperlipidemia.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.353-377
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• 2000

This study was performed to investigate the performance state and improvement countermeasure of Primary Health care Posts(PHPs). The operation reports of PHPs(1996 330 PHPs, 1999 313 PHPs) located in Kyongsangbuk-Do and data collected by self-administered questionnaire survey of 280 community health practitioners(CHPs) were analyzed. The major results were as follows: Population per PHP in 1999 decreased in number compared with 1996. But population of the aged increased in number. The performance status of PHP in 1999 increased compared with 1996. A hundred forty one community health practitioners(50.4%) replied that the fiscal standing of PHP was good. Only 1.4% replied that the fiscal standing of PHP was difficult. For the degree of satisfaction in affairs, overall of community health practitioners felt proud. The degree of cooperation between PHP and public health institutions was high and the degree of cooperation of between PHP and private medical institutions was high. The degree of cooperation between PHP and Health Center was significantly different by age of CHP, the service period of CHP, and CHP's service period at present PHP. Over seventy percent of CHPs replied that they had cooperative relationship with operation council, village health workers, community organization. CHPs who drew up the paper on PHP's health activity plan were 96.4 % and only 11.4% of CHPs participated drawing up the report on the second community health plan. CHPs who grasped the blood pressure and smoking status of residents over 70% were 88.2%, 63.9% respectively and the grasp rate of blood pressure fur residents were significantly different according to age and educational level of CHP. CHPs received job education in addition continuous job education arid participated on research program in last 3 years were 27.5%, respectively. CHPs performed the return health program for residents in last 3years were 65.4%. Over 95% of CHPs replied that PHPs might be necessary and 53.9% of CHPs replied that the role of PHPs should be increased. CHPS indicated that major reasons of FHPs lockout were lack of understanding for PHP and administrative convenience, CHPs were officials in special government service governors intention of self-governing body. CHPs suggested number of population in health need such as the aged and patients with chronic disease, opinion of residents, population size, traffic situation and network in order as evaluation criteria for PHP and suggested results of health performance, degree of relationship with residents, results of medical examination anti treatment, ability for administration and affairs in order as evaluation criteria for CHP. CHPs replied that the important countermeasures for PHPs under standard were affairs improvement of PHPs and shifting of location to health weakness area in city. Over 50% of CHPs indicated that the most important thing for improvement of PHPs was affairs adjustment of CLIP. And CHPs suggested that health programs carried out in priority at PHP were management of diabetes mellitus and hypertention. home visiting health care, health care for the aged. The Affairs of BLIP should be adjusted to satisfy community health need and health programs such as management of diabetes mellitus and hypertention, home visiting health care, health care for the aged should be activated in order that PHPs become organization reflecting value system of primary health care.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.111-126
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• 2017

Recommender systems based on association rule mining significantly contribute to seller's sales by reducing consumers' time to search for products that they want. Recommendations based on the frequency of transactions such as orders can effectively screen out the products that are statistically marketable among multiple products. A product with a high possibility of sales, however, can be omitted from the recommendation if it records insufficient number of transactions at the beginning of the sale. Products missing from the associated recommendations may lose the chance of exposure to consumers, which leads to a decline in the number of transactions. In turn, diminished transactions may create a vicious circle of lost opportunity to be recommended. Thus, initial sales are likely to remain stagnant for a certain period of time. Products that are susceptible to fashion or seasonality, such as clothing, may be greatly affected. This study was aimed at expanding association rules to include into the list of recommendations those products whose initial trading frequency of transactions is low despite the possibility of high sales. The particular purpose is to predict the strength of the direct connection of two unconnected items through the properties of the paths located between them. An association between two items revealed in transactions can be interpreted as the interaction between them, which can be expressed as a link in a social network whose nodes are items. The first step calculates the centralities of the nodes in the middle of the paths that indirectly connect the two nodes without direct connection. The next step identifies the number of the paths and the shortest among them. These extracts are used as independent variables in the regression analysis to predict future connection strength between the nodes. The strength of the connection between the two nodes of the model, which is defined by the number of nodes between the two nodes, is measured after a certain period of time. The regression analysis results confirm that the number of paths between the two products, the distance of the shortest path, and the number of neighboring items connected to the products are significantly related to their potential strength. This study used actual order transaction data collected for three months from February to April in 2016 from an online commerce company. To reduce the complexity of analytics as the scale of the network grows, the analysis was performed only on miscellaneous goods. Two consecutively purchased items were chosen from each customer's transactions to obtain a pair of antecedent and consequent, which secures a link needed for constituting a social network. The direction of the link was determined in the order in which the goods were purchased. Except for the last ten days of the data collection period, the social network of associated items was built for the extraction of independent variables. The model predicts the number of links to be connected in the next ten days from the explanatory variables. Of the 5,711 previously unconnected links, 611 were newly connected for the last ten days. Through experiments, the proposed model demonstrated excellent predictions. Of the 571 links that the proposed model predicts, 269 were confirmed to have been connected. This is 4.4 times more than the average of 61, which can be found without any prediction model. This study is expected to be useful regarding industries whose new products launch quickly with short life cycles, since their exposure time is critical. Also, it can be used to detect diseases that are rarely found in the early stages of medical treatment because of the low incidence of outbreaks. Since the complexity of the social networking analysis is sensitive to the number of nodes and links that make up the network, this study was conducted in a particular category of miscellaneous goods. Future research should consider that this condition may limit the opportunity to detect unexpected associations between products belonging to different categories of classification.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.79-96
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• 2012

As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.