• Title/Summary/Keyword: Additive Risk Model

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Effect of Daily Mean PM10 and PM2.5 on Distribution of Excessive Mortality Risks from Respiratory and Cardiovascular Diseases in Busan (부산지역 PM10, PM2.5 일평균에 의한 호흡기 및 심혈관질환 초과위험도 분포)

  • Do, Woo-gon;Jung, Woo-sik
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.30 no.7
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    • pp.573-584
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    • 2021
  • To analyze the effects of PM10 and PM2.5 on daily mortality cases, the relations of death counts from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases with PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were applied to the generalized additive model (GAM) in this study. From the coefficients of the GAM model, the excessive mortality risks due to an increase of 10 ㎍/m3 in daily mean PM10 and PM2.5 for each cause were calculated. The excessive risks of deaths from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases were 0.64%, 1.69%, and 1.16%, respectively, owing to PM10 increase and 0.42%, 2.80%, and 0.91%, respectively, owing to PM2.5 increase. Our result showed that particulate matter posed a greater risk of death from respiratory diseases and is consistent with the cases in Europe and China. The regional distribution of excessive risk of death is 0.24%-0.81%, 0.34%-2.6%, and 0.62%-1.94% from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases, respectively, owing to PM10 increase, and 0.14%-1.02%, 1.07%-3.92%, and 0.22%-1.73% from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases, respectively, owing to PM2.5 increase. Our results represented a different aspect from the regional concentration distributions. Thus, we saw that the concentration distributions of air pollutants differ from the affected areas and identified the need for a policy to reduce damage rather than reduce concentrations.

Independent and Additive Interaction Between Tumor Necrosis Factor β +252 Polymorphisms and Chronic Hepatitis B and C Virus Infection on Risk and Prognosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Case-Control Study

  • Jeng, Jen-Eing;Wu, Hui-Fang;Tsai, Meng-Feng;Tsai, Huey-Ru;Chuang, Lea-Yea;Lin, Zu-Yau;Hsieh, Min-Yuh;Chen, Shinn-Chern;Chuang, Wan-Lung;Wang, Liang-Yen;Yu, Ming-Lung;Dai, Chia-Yen;Tsai, Jung-Fa
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.23
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    • pp.10209-10215
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    • 2015
  • To assess the contribution of tumor necrosis factor $(TNF){\beta}$ +252 polymorphisms to risk and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), we enrolled 150 pairs of sex- and age-matched patients with HCC, patients with cirrhosis alone, and unrelated healthy controls. $TNF{\beta}$ +252 genotypes were determined by polymerase chain reaction with restriction fragment length polymorphism. Multivariate analysis indicated that $TNF{\beta}$ G/G genotype [odds ratio (OR), 3.64; 95%CI, 1.49-8.91], hepatitis B surface antigen (OR, 16.38; 95%CI, 8.30-32.33), and antibodies to hepatitis C virus (HCV) (OR, 39.11; 95%CI, 14.83-103.14) were independent risk factors for HCC. There was an additive interaction between $TNF{\beta}$ G/G genotype and chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV)/HCV infection (synergy index=1.15). Multivariate analysis indicated that factors associated with $TNF{\beta}$ G/G genotype included cirrhosis with Child-Pugh C (OR, 4.06; 95%CI, 1.34-12.29), thrombocytopenia (OR, 6.55; 95%CI, 1.46-29.43), and higher serum ${\alpha}$-fetoprotein concentration (OR, 2.53; 95%CI, 1.14-5.62). Patients with $TNF{\beta}$ G/G genotype had poor cumulative survival (p=0.005). Cox proportional hazard model indicated that $TNF{\beta}$ G/G genotype was a biomarker for poor HCC survival (hazard ratio, 1.70; 95%CI, 1.07-2.69). In conclusion, there are independent and additive effects between $TNF{\beta}$ G/G genotype and chronic HBV/HCV infection on risk for HCC. It is a biomarker for poor HCC survival. Carriage of this genotype correlates with disease severity and advanced hepatic fibrosis, which may contribute to a higher risk and poor survival of HCC. Chronic HBV/HCV infected subjects with this genotype should receive more intensive surveillance for early detection of HCC.

Using Generalized Additive Partial Linear Model for Constructing Underwriting System (언더라이팅 시스템 구축을 위한 일반화가법부분선형모형의 활용)

  • Ki, Seung-Do;Kang, Kee-Hoon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1215-1227
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    • 2009
  • Underwriting refers to the process that the insurance company measures the potential risk of the future clients and decide whether insuring them with current premium. Although the traditional underwriting system used in Korean automobile insurance market is easy to understand, it is not based on a reliable statistical procedure. In this paper, we propose to apply the generalized additive model into construction of underwriting system, which is based on statistical analysis. We use automobile insurance data in Korea and apply our approach to the data. The results from the empirical analysis would be useful even for determining the significance of each variable in calculating automobile insurance premium.

Predicting the Invasion Potential of Pink Muhly (Muhlenbergia capillaris) in South Korea

  • Park, Jeong Soo;Choi, Donghui;Kim, Youngha
    • Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.74-82
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    • 2020
  • Predictions of suitable habitat areas can provide important information pertaining to the risk assessment and management of alien plants at early stage of their establishment. Here, we predict the invasion potential of Muhlenbergia capillaris (pink muhly) in South Korea using five bioclimatic variables. We adopt four models (generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest (RF), and artificial neural network) for projection based on 630 presence and 600 pseudo-absence data points. The RF model yielded the highest performance. The presence probability of M. capillaris was highest within an annual temperature range of 12 to 24℃ and with precipitation from 800 to 1,300 mm. The occurrence of M. capillaris was positively associated with the precipitation of the driest quarter. The projection map showed that suitable areas for M. capillaris are mainly concentrated in the southern coastal regions of South Korea, where temperatures and precipitation are higher than in other regions, especially in the winter season. We can conclude that M. capillaris is not considered to be invasive based on a habitat suitability map. However, there is a possibility that rising temperatures and increasing precipitation levels in winter can accelerate the expansion of this plant on the Korean Peninsula.

Circulating levels of vitamin D, vitamin D receptor polymorphisms, and colorectal adenoma: a meta-analysis

  • Lee, Jung-Eun
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.5 no.5
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    • pp.464-470
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    • 2011
  • Growing evidence suggests an elevated risk for colorectal neoplasia among individuals with low levels of vitamin D, the biological actions of which are mediated by the vitamin D receptor (VDR). To investigate the association among vitamin D status, VDR polymorphisms (FokI, and BsmI), and colorectal adenoma, we conducted a meta-analysis of nine studies of circulating levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and five studies of FokI or BsmI polymorphisms in relation to colorectal adenomas. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using a random-effects model. A total of 3398 coloreetal adenomas for 25(OH)D and 1754 colorectal adenomas for VDR were included in the meta-analysis. We identified a significant inverse association between colorectal adenoma (combined RR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98 per 10 ng/mL increase in 25(OH)D levels). When we examined FokI and BsmI polymorphisms in the meta-analysis, we found no association for either FokI (combined RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.95-1.06) or BsmI (combined RR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.93-1.05) in the additive model. These data suggest an inverse association between circulating 25(OH)D levels and colorectal adenoma risk.

Application of Crossover Analysis-logistic Regression in the Assessment of Gene- environmental Interactions for Colorectal Cancer

  • Wu, Ya-Zhou;Yang, Huan;Zhang, Ling;Zhang, Yan-Qi;Liu, Ling;Yi, Dong;Cao, Jia
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.2031-2037
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    • 2012
  • Background: Analysis of gene-gene and gene-environment interactions for complex multifactorial human disease faces challenges regarding statistical methodology. One major difficulty is partly due to the limitations of parametric-statistical methods for detection of gene effects that are dependent solely or partially on interactions with other genes or environmental exposures. Based on our previous case-control study in Chongqing of China, we have found increased risk of colorectal cancer exists in individuals carrying a novel homozygous TT at locus rs1329149 and known homozygous AA at locus rs671. Methods: In this study, we proposed statistical method-crossover analysis in combination with logistic regression model, to further analyze our data and focus on assessing gene-environmental interactions for colorectal cancer. Results: The results of the crossover analysis showed that there are possible multiplicative interactions between loci rs671 and rs1329149 with alcohol consumption. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis also validated that loci rs671 and rs1329149 both exhibited a multiplicative interaction with alcohol consumption. Moreover, we also found additive interactions between any pair of two factors (among the four risk factors: gene loci rs671, rs1329149, age and alcohol consumption) through the crossover analysis, which was not evident on logistic regression. Conclusions: In conclusion, the method based on crossover analysis-logistic regression is successful in assessing additive and multiplicative gene-environment interactions, and in revealing synergistic effects of gene loci rs671 and rs1329149 with alcohol consumption in the pathogenesis and development of colorectal cancer.

NR3C1 Polymorphisms for Genetic Susceptibility to Schizophrenia

  • Park, Joo Seok;Lee, Sang Min;Kim, Jong Woo;Kang, Won Sub
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.88-93
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    • 2019
  • Objectives Psychological stress has been known to increase the risk of schizophrenia. Because stress responses are mainly mediated by cortisol, the action of the glucocorticoid receptors (Nuclear Receptor Subfamily 3 Group C Member 1, NR3C1) is possibly related to the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. In this study, we investigated the associations between polymorphisms of NR3C1 and schizophrenia. Methods Four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs17100236, rs2963155, rs9324924, and rs7701443) of NR3C1 were genotyped in 208 patients with schizophrenia and 339 healthy individuals. A chi-square test was performed to test differences in allele distributions among groups. A multiple logistic regression model was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and multiple inheritance models to analyze the associations between schizophrenia and SNPs (the dominant, recessive and additive models). Results The minor allele frequencies of two SNPs were significantly higher in the schizophrenia group than in those of the control group (rs2963155 G > A : 0.25 vs. 0.18, p = 0.0066 ; rs7701443 A > G : 0.40 vs. 0.33, p = 0.012). The genotype frequencies of two SNPs were found to be significantly different between patients with schizophrenia and controls in the dominant model (rs2963155 : AG/GG vs. AA, OR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.16-2.38, p = 0.0055, rs7701443 : AG/AA vs. GG, OR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.11-2.34, p = 0.01) and the log-additive model (rs2963155 : AG vs. GG vs. AA, OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.13-2.10, p = 0.0067). Conclusions This study showed significant associations between NR3C1 polymorphisms and schizophrenia. It suggests that NR3C1 may play a role in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia.

CCDC26 Gene Polymorphism and Glioblastoma Risk in the Han Chinese Population

  • Wei, Xiao-Bing;Jin, Tian-Bo;Li, Gang;Geng, Ting-Ting;Zhang, Jia-Yi;Chen, Cui-Ping;Gao, Guo-Dong;Chen, Chao;Gong, Yong-Kuan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.3629-3633
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    • 2014
  • Background: Glioblastoma (GBM) is an immunosuppressive tumor whose median survival time is only 12-15 months, and patients with GBM have a uniformly poor prognosis. It is known that heredity contributes to formation of glioma, but there are few genetic studies concerning GBM. Materials and Methods: We genotyped six tagging SNPs (tSNP) in Han Chinese GBM and control patients. We used Microsoft Excel and SPSS 16.0 statistical package for statistical analysis and SNP Stats to test for associations between certain tSNPs and risk of GBM in five different models. ORs and 95%CIs were calculated for unconditional logistic-regression analysis with adjustment for age and gender. The SHEsis software platform was applied for analysis of linkage disequilibrium, haplotype construction, and genetic associations at polymorphism loci. Results: We found rs891835 in CCDC26 to be associated with GBM susceptibility at a level of p=0.009. The following genotypes of rs891835 were found to be associated with GBM risk in four different models of gene action: i) genotype GT (OR=2.26; 95%CI, 1.29-3.97; p=0.019) or GG (OR=1.33; 95%CI, 0.23-7.81; p=0.019) in the codominant model; ii) genotypes GT and GG (OR=2.18; 95%CI, 1.26-3.78; p=0.0061) in the dominant model; iii) GT (OR=2.24; 95%CI, 1.28-3.92; p=0.0053) in the overdominant model; iv) the allele G of rs891835 (OR=1.85; 95%CI, 1.14-3.00; p=0.015) in the additive model. In addition, "CG" and "CGGAG" were found by haplotype analysis to be associated with increased GBM risk. In contrast, genotype GG of CCDC26 rs6470745 was associated with decreased GBM risk (OR=0.34; 95%CI, 0.12-1.01; p=0.029) in the recessive model. Conclusions: Our results, combined with those from previous studies, suggest a potential genetic contribution of CCDC26 to GBM progression among Han Chinese.

Meta-analysis of the MDM2 T309G Polymorphism and Gastric Cancer Risk

  • Song, Bo;Duan, Zhong-Yu;Zhong, Yun-Hua;Lei, Na;Yang, Yu-Qing;Luo, Kai-Yuan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.6649-6651
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    • 2013
  • Background: Mdm2 binds to the amino-terminus of p53 to induce its degradation and a single nucleotide polymorphism in the MDM2 promoter region (T309G) has been reported to increase the risk of several carcinomas, such as gastric cancer. However, the results of published studies to analyze the association between MDM2 T309G and gastric cancer havve often conflicted. Methods: To better illustrate the filiation between MDM2 T309G and gastric cancer, we performed a meta-analysis. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to evaluate the strength of the relationship. The pooled ORs were performed for 4 models, additive, recessive, co-dominant model, and dominant. Results: Nine published case-control studies including 3,225 gastric cancer cases and 4,118 controls were identified. The MDM2 T309G polymorphism was associated with a significantly increased risk of gastric cancer risk when all studies were pooled into the meta-analysis (GG versus TT, OR=1.57; 95%CI=1.57-2.12; p=0.003) and GG versus GT/TT, OR=1.52; 95%CI=1.217-1.90; p<0.001). Furthermore, Egger's test did not show any evidence of publication bias (P = 0.608 for GG versus TT). Conclusion: Our results suggest that the MDM2 T309G polymorphism is indeed associated with a significantly increased risk of gastric cancer.

Aquatic Toxicities of Major Antimicrobial and Anthelmintic Veterinary Pharmaceuticals and their Potential Ecological Risks

  • Oh, Su-Gene;Kim, Jung-Kon;Park, So-Young;Lee, Min-Jung;Choi, Kyung-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Health Society Conference
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    • 2004.06a
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    • pp.173-177
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    • 2004
  • The acute toxicities of two major anti-pathogenic veterinary medicines, i.e., ciprofloxacin and enrofloxacin, and six benzimidazole anthelmintics, i.e., albendazole, thiabendazole, flubendazole, febantel, fenbendazole, and oxfendazole, were evaluated with a marine bacterium, Vibrio fischeri, and invertebrate Daphnia magna. These veterinary medical products have been widely used for farm animals, but their impact on aquatic fauna has seldom been investigated. In general, daphnids responded as much as 3 orders of magnitude more sensitively to the tested pharmaceuticals than the microbes. For Daphnia, the most toxic product among the tested anthelmintics was fenbendazole, followed by flubendazole > albendazole ${\approx}$ febantel > thiabendazole > oxfendazole. Daphnids' EC50 values obtained from 48 to 96 hrs of fenbendazole exposure ranged from 2.7 to 6.3 ug/L. The mixture toxicity of the test pharmaceuticals was generally additive in nature and was well predicted by a concentration addition model. Using the predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs) of the benzimidazole derivatives estimated from this study, and predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of these pharmaceuticals, the risk quotients of each anthelmintics were calculated. Most of the test anthelmintic compounds resulted in risk quotients greater than 1. Especially, risk quotient for fenbendazole was 2,791, which strongly indicates this compound might cause severe ecological consequences, should no future action be taken. This study is the first report on the aquatic toxicities and potential ecological risk of major anthelmintic and antimicrobial veterinary products in Korea. The result of this study provides information necessary for conducting more detailed ecological risk assessment of pharmaceutical products in ambient water and guiding proper management decision.

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