• Title/Summary/Keyword: Actuarial science

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Principal Component Analysis with Coefficient of Variation Matrix (변동계수행렬을 이용한 주성분분석)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.385-392
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    • 2015
  • Principal component analysis (PCA), a dimension-reduction technique, is usually implemented after the variables are standardized when the measurement unit of variables are different. To standardize a variable we divide it by its standard deviation. But there is another way to transform a variable to be independent of its measurement unit. It is to divide it by its mean rather than standard deviation. Implementing PCA on standardized variables is equivalent to implementing PCA with a correlation matrix of original variables. Similarly, implementing PCA on the transformed variables divided by their means is equivalent to implementing PCA with a matrix related to the coefficients of variation of the original variables. We explain why we need to implement PCA on the variables transformed by their means.

A Graphical Method of Checking the Adequacy of Linear Systematic Component in Generalized Linear Models (일반화선형모형에서 선형성의 타당성을 진단하는 그래프)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.27-41
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    • 2008
  • A graphical method of checking the adequacy of a generalized linear model is proposed. The graph helps to assess the assumption that the link function of mean can be expressed as a linear combination of explanatory variables in the generalized linear model. For the graph the boosting technique is applied to estimate nonparametrically the relationship between the link function of the mean and the explanatory variables, though any other nonparametric regression methods can be applied. Through simulation studies with normal and binary data, the effectiveness of the graph is demonstrated. And we list some limitations and technical details of the graph.

A Comparison Study for the Pricing of Automobile Insurance Premium Based on Credibility (신뢰도에근거한자동차보험 가격산출비교)

  • Kim, Yeong-Hwa;Lee, Hyun-Soo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.713-724
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    • 2010
  • Calculating or estimating the proper insurance premium is very important decision making process for both the policyholder and the insurance company. The credibility theory is one of the most important theories in actuarial science to get the proper premium. In this research, we introduce the rule of relative exposure volume, the square root rule and the B$\ddot{u}$hlmann credibility, and estimate the new premiums based on these methods. By real data analysis, the accuracy of these credibility methods are compared.

Estimating the Automobile Insurance Premium Based on Credibilities (여러가지 신뢰도에 근거한 자동차 보험료 예측)

  • Kim, Yeong-Hwa;Kim, Mi-Jung;Kim, Myung-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.279-292
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    • 2011
  • Credibility theory is one of the most important theories of actuarial science to calculate the proper insurance premium. In this paper, the rule of relative exposure volume, the square root rule, the B$\"{u}$hlmann credibility and B$\"{u}$hlmann-Straub credibility with the basic concept of credibility have been introduced, Also, we estimate new premiums based on these methods for real data. As a result, the rule of relative exposure volume provides the highest accuracy.

Confidence Intervals for High Quantiles of Heavy-Tailed Distributions (꼬리가 두꺼운 분포의 고분위수에 대한 신뢰구간)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.461-473
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    • 2014
  • We consider condence intervals for high quantiles of heavy-tailed distribution. The asymptotic condence intervals based on the limiting distribution of estimators are considered together with bootstrap condence intervals. We can also apply a non-parametric, parametric and semi-parametric approach to each of these two kinds of condence intervals. We considered 11 condence intervals and compared their performance in actual coverage probability and the length of condence intervals. Simulation study shows that two condence intervals (the semi-parametric asymptotic condence interval and the semi-parametric bootstrap condence interval using pivotal quantity) are relatively more stable under the criterion of actual coverage probability.

Comparing Data Access Methods in Statistical Packages (통계 패키지에서의 데이터 접근 방식 비교)

  • Kang, Gun-Seog
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.437-447
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    • 2009
  • Recently, in addition to analyzing data with appropriate statistical methods, statistical analysts in the industrial fields face difficulties that they have to compose proper datasets for analysis objectives via extracting or generating processes from diverse data storage devices. In this paper we survey and compare many state-of-the-art data access technologies adopted by several commonly used statistical packages. More understanding of these technologies will help to reduce the costs occurring when analyzing large size of datasets in especially data mining works, and so to allow more time in applying statistical analysis methods.

Estimating the Number of Seats in Local Constituencies of a Party Using Exit Polls in the General Election (총선 출구조사에서 정당별 지역구 의석수 추정)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2013
  • Exit polls failed to estimate the number of seats in the National Assembly for each party in the 2012 General Election, even though they estimated it in interval. Three major broadcast companies jointly carried out exit polls, but made projections independently. The exact methods of projection were not publicly released. This paper proposes confidence intervals for the number of seats in local constituencies using the results of exit polls, and conducted simulation studies to assess the performance of the cofidence intervals. The proposed confidence intervals were applied to the real data of 2012 General Election.

Suggestions of Partial Credibilities for Proper Non-Life Insurance Premium (적정 손해보험료 산정을 위한 부분신뢰도 제안)

  • Kim, Myung Joon;Choi, Jung-Ah;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.321-333
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    • 2013
  • Credibility theory is one of important theories in actuarial science to produce proper insurance premium. In this paper, new partial credibilities are proposed and introduced with widely accepted credibility theories such as rule of relative exposure volume, square root rule, B$\ddot{u}$hlmann credibility and B$\ddot{u}$hlmann-Straub credibility. Also, with credibilities estimated by current and newly suggested, the performance of the accuracy for estimating the risk is compared through real data analysis and we show that the newly suggested methods are improving the performance by reducing the error.

Comparison of Severe Disease Incidence among Eligible Insureds to Expand Coverage for Substandard Risks (유병자 보험의 보장성 확대를 위한 유병자들의 중증질환 발생률 비교)

  • Baek, Hyeyoun;Son, Jihoon;Shin, Jimin
    • Journal of health informatics and statistics
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.318-328
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: People are living longer, but often with diseases or chronic conditions. As a consequence, interest in resolving insurance blind spots is growing. This study provides substandard risk-relevant statistics to help substandard risks who are likely to fall in insurance blind spots obtain insurance coverage, such as the reimbursement of medical costs, as well as to stimulate insurance product development. Methods: This study uses National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) cohort data to determine the relevant statistics. The incidence rates of severe diseases are derived and compared against standard risks to establish a set of relative risk factors. These incidence rates of standard and substandard risks are then compared. Results: Currently, an individual's cancer history is used in the underwriting process for simplified issue insurance. However, underwriting focusing on hospitalization and procedures related to serious illnesses could lower premiums for substandard risks. Moreover, the statistical results could be used to expand the coverage of health insurance products. Conclusions: This study's relative risk factors can be used to derive simplified issue premium rates for substandard risks. They can also be used to implement discount and loading schemes for medical reimbursement insurance and help insurance companies implement proactive risk management.

Rederivation of Gertler's model and analysis of the Korean economy

  • Lee, Hangsuck;Son, Jihoon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.649-673
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    • 2020
  • This paper makes a theoretical contribution by providing clear and detailed derivation of economic agents' decision problems including elastic labor supply in Gertler's overlapping generation (OLG) model. We apply the model to the Korean economy by calibration based on Korean economic data. It also analyzes the impact of current social issues such as aging and extension of retirement age, on the Korean economy in a long-run equilibrium. Subsequently, we also discuss the implications of the analysis. Aging has prolonged the period of retirement; therefore, population structure changes by the increase in the proportion of retirees, the total consumption-to-GDP ratio decreases, and capital stock increases due to reduced propensity to consume out of wealth in preparation for an individual's retirement life. The implementation of retirement age extension increases the proportion of retirees relatively less and alleviates fluctuations in labor supply and the share of financial assets for both economic agents. However, the decrements in consumption-to-GDP ratio is larger than before, and this leads to a larger rise in the capital stock compared to when there is only an aging effect.