• Title/Summary/Keyword: Accidental scenario

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Fuzzy event tree analysis for quantified risk assessment due to oil and gas leakage in offshore installations

  • Cheliyan, A.S.;Bhattacharyya, S.K.
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.41-55
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    • 2018
  • Accidental oil and gas leak is a critical concern for the offshore industry because it can lead to severe consequences and as a result, it is imperative to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the consequences of the leakage in order to assess the risk. Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a technique to identify the consequences that can result from the occurrence of a hazardous event. The probability of occurrence of the consequences is evaluated by the ETA, based on the failure probabilities of the sequential events. Conventional ETA deals with events with crisp failure probabilities. In offshore applications, it is often difficult to arrive at a single probability measure due to lack of data or imprecision in data. In such a scenario, fuzzy set theory can be applied to handle imprecision and data uncertainty. This paper presents fuzzy ETA (FETA) methodology to compute the probability of the outcomes initiated due to oil/gas leak in an actual offshore-onshore installation. Post FETA, sensitivity analysis by Fuzzy Weighted Index (FWI) method is performed to find the event that has the maximum contribution to the severe sequences. It is found that events of 'ignition', spreading of fire to 'equipment' and 'other areas' are the highest contributors to the severe consequences, followed by failure of 'leak detection' and 'fire detection' and 'fire water not being effective'. It is also found that the frequency of severe consequences that are catastrophic in nature obtained by ETA is one order less than that obtained by FETA, thereby implying that in ETA, the uncertainty does not propagate through the event tree. The ranking of severe sequences based on their probability, however, are identical in both ETA and FETA.

Scenarios for Effective Fire Fighting Operations during Tunnel Fires (도로터널 화재시 효과적인 소방활동전략 수립을 위한 시나리오 연구)

  • Kim, Hak kuen;Lee, Ji-hee
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2017
  • Fires in tunnels are an international concern and fatal accidental fires in tunnels seem to occur on annual. They have the potential to become much worse int the future as more and longer tunnels are constructed and as traffic densities increase. This is a serious problem. The main purpose of this study is to develop operational procedures for fire brigades in road tunnel fires. This study discussed the past to see what can be learned from the incidents that have already done in tunnels. 73 cases of road tunnel fires domestic and outside of Korea were investigated and classified into 4 incident categories. Among them, 4 tunnel fires are highlighted, focusing on the activities of fire brigades and operation. Regarding the establishment of the strategies for fire fighting, 6 kinds of fire scenario curves have been deducted with regard to the relation between intervention time and heat release rate. It made the choice from the defensive or aggressive fire fighting activities depending on two criteria i.e. response limit and maximum response time. Road Tunnel Classification models can be useful when a fire brigade evaluates fire risk levels in the tunnels under its jurisdiction from the firefighting point of view and sets up preventive measures.

Damage Effects Modeling by Chlorine Leaks of Chemical Plants (화학공장의 염소 누출에 의한 피해 영향 모델링)

  • Jeong, Gyeong-Sam;Baik, Eun-Sun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.76-87
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    • 2018
  • This study describes the damage effects modeling for a quantitative prediction about the hazardous distances from pressurized chlorine saturated liquid tank, which has two-phase leakage. The heavy gas, chlorine is an accidental substance that is used as a raw material and intermediate in chemical plants. Based on the evaluation method for damage prediction and accident effects assessment models, the operating conditions were set as the standard conditions to reveal the optimal variables on an accident due to the leakage of a liquid chlorine storage vessel. A model of the atmospheric diffusion model, ALOHA (V5.4.4) developed by USEPA and NOAA, which is used for a risk assessment of Off-site Risk Assessment (ORA), was used. The Yeosu National Industrial Complex is designated as a model site, which manufactures and handles large quantities of chemical substances. Weather-related variables and process variables for each scenario need to be modelled to derive the characteristics of leakage accidents. The estimated levels of concern (LOC) were calculated based on the Gaussian diffusion model. As a result of ALOHA modeling, the hazardous distance due to chlorine diffusion increased with increasing air temperature and the wind speed decreased and the atmospheric stability was stabilized.

Study of hydrodynamics and iodine removal by self-priming venturi scrubber

  • Jawaria Ahad;Talha Rizwan ;Amjad Farooq ;Khalid Waheed ;Masroor Ahmad ;Kamran Rasheed Qureshi ;Waseem Siddique ;Naseem Irfan
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.169-179
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    • 2023
  • Filtered containment system is a passive safety system that controls the over-pressurization of containment in case of a design-based accidents by venting high pressure gaseous mixture, consisting of air, steam and radioactive particulate and gases like iodine, via a scrubbing system. An indigenous lab scale facility was developed for research on iodine removal by venturi scrubber by simulating the accidental scenario. A mixture of 0.2 % sodium thiosulphate and 0.5 % sodium hydroxide, was used in scrubbing column. A modified mathematical model was presented for iodine removal in venturi scrubber. Improvement in model was made by addition of important parameters like jet penetration length, bubble rise velocity and gas holdup which were not considered previously. Experiments were performed by varying hydrodynamic parameters like liquid level height and gas flow rates to see their effect on removal efficiency of iodine. Gas holdup was also measured for various liquid level heights and gas flowrates. Removal efficiency increased with increase in liquid level height and gas flowrate up to an optimum point beyond that efficiency was decreased. Experimental results of removal efficiency were compared with the predicted results, and they were found to be in good agreement. Maximum removal efficiency of 99.8% was obtained.