• Title/Summary/Keyword: Accident Prediction Model

Search Result 225, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Prediction of radioactivity releases for a Long-Term Station Blackout event in the VVER-1200 nuclear reactor of Bangladesh

  • Shafiqul Islam Faisal ;Md Shafiqul Islam;Md Abdul Malek Soner
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.55 no.2
    • /
    • pp.696-706
    • /
    • 2023
  • Consequences of an anticipated Beyond Design Basis Accident (BDBA) Long-Term Station Blackout (LTSBO) event with complete loss of grid power in the VVER-1200 reactor of Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) of Unit-1 are assessed using the RASCAL 4.3 code. This study estimated the released radionuclides, received public radiological dose, and ground surface concentration considering 3 accident scenarios of International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) level 7 and two meteorological conditions. Atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition processes of released radionuclides are simulated using a straight-line trajectory Gaussian plume model for short distances and a Gaussian puff model for long distances. Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE) to the public within 40 km and radionuclides contribution for three-dose pathways of inhalation, cloudshine, and groundshine owing to airborne releases are evaluated considering with and without passive safety Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) in dry (winter) and wet (monsoon) seasons. Source term and their release rates are varied with the functional duration of passive safety ECCS. In three accident scenarios, the TEDE of 10 mSv and above are confined to 8 km and 2 km for the wet and dry seasons, respectively in the downwind direction. The groundshine dose is the most dominating in the wet season while the inhalation dose is in the dry season. Total received doses and surface concentration in the wet season near the plant are higher than those in the dry season due to the deposition effect of rain on the radioactive substances.

Prediction Model and Numerical Simulation of the Initial Diffusion of Spilled Oil on the Sea Surface (해상누유의 초기확산 예측모델 및 수치추정)

  • Yoon, B.S.;Song, J.U.
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.104-110
    • /
    • 1997
  • Increase of marine transpotation in coastal area frequently yields oil spill accidents due to collision or grounding of oil tankers, which affects great deal of damages on ocean environments. Exact prediction of oil pollution area in time domain, which is called oil map, is very important for effective and efficient oil recovery and minimization of environmental damage. The prediction is carried out by considering the two distinct processes which are initial diffusion on the still water surface and advection due to tide, wind wave induced surface currents. In the present paper, only the initial diffusion is dealt with. Somewhat new simulation model and its numerical scheme are proposed to predict it. Simple diffusion experiment is also carried out to check the validity of the present method. Furthermore, some example simulations are performed for virtual oil spill accident. Quite realistic oil map including oil thickness distributions can be obtained by the present model.

  • PDF

Prediction of Severities of Rental Car Traffic Accidents using Naive Bayes Big Data Classifier (나이브 베이즈 빅데이터 분류기를 이용한 렌터카 교통사고 심각도 예측)

  • Jeong, Harim;Kim, Honghoi;Park, Sangmin;Han, Eum;Kim, Kyung Hyun;Yun, Ilsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-12
    • /
    • 2017
  • Traffic accidents are caused by a combination of human factors, vehicle factors, and environmental factors. In the case of traffic accidents where rental cars are involved, the possibility and the severity of traffic accidents are expected to be different from those of other traffic accidents due to the unfamiliar environment of the driver. In this study, we developed a model to forecast the severity of rental car accidents by using Naive Bayes classifier for Busan, Gangneung, and Jeju city. In addition, we compared the prediction accuracy performance of two models where one model uses the variables of which statistical significance were verified in a prior study and another model uses the entire available variables. As a result of the comparison, it is shown that the prediction accuracy is higher when using the variables with statistical significance.

Fire Accident Analysis of Hazardous Materials Using Data Analytics (Data Analytics를 활용한 위험물 화재사고 분석)

  • Shin, Eun-Ji;Koh, Moon-Soo;Shin, Dongil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
    • /
    • v.24 no.5
    • /
    • pp.47-55
    • /
    • 2020
  • Hazardous materials accidents are not limited to the leakage of the material, but if the early response is not appropriate, it can lead to a fire or an explosion, which increases the scale of the damage. However, as the 4th industrial revolution and the rise of the big data era are being discussed, systematic analysis of hazardous materials accidents based on new techniques has not been attempted, but simple statistics are being collected. In this study, we perform the systematic analysis, using machine learning, on the fire accident data for the past 11 years (2008 ~ 2018), accumulated by the National Fire Service. The analysis results are visualized and presented through text mining analysis, and the possibility of developing a damage-scale prediction model is explored by applying the regression analysis method, using the main factors present in the hazardous materials fire accident data.

Traffic Accident Prediction Model by Freeway Geometric Types (고속도로 선형조건별 교통사고 위험도 평가모형 개발 (호남고속도로를 중심으로))

  • 강정규;이성관
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.163-175
    • /
    • 2002
  • Fatalities from traffic accidents constitute one of the major health issues as well as safety ones in Korea. It has been reported that traffic accident is affected by the combined effects of road. vehicle. and human factors. Over the past few decades, a number of studies have been conducted to find the impact of road geometric factors on traffic safety. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of road geometric factors on traffic safety on Korean expressways. Detailed geometric design data were available from Korea Highway Corporation. Five-year traffic accident data on Honam expressway were collected and analyzed. It was found that following geometric factors influence traffic safety on expressways : radius of curve, curve length, and length of straight section. Furthermore, the existence of I.C. turned out to have a significant impact on traffic safety level. Based on the data analysis several multiple regression forms that relate traffic accident frequencies and geometric factors on expressways are developed.

A Fundamental Study on Advanced VTS System through Statistic Analyzing Traffic Accidents in VTS area (해양사고 통계분석을 통한 VTS 개선방안에 관한 기초연구)

  • Lee, Hyong-Ki;Chang, Seong-Rok;Park, Young-Soo
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
    • /
    • v.33 no.8
    • /
    • pp.519-524
    • /
    • 2009
  • Although it is expected to provide fundamental data for advanced VTS system by analyzing traffic accidents in VTS area, there is no quantitative analysis to find it.. In this research, it is examined and analyzed marine casualties records(1999-2004), data of Port-MIS and data of each VTS center. The results of this research are as below. 1) It is necessary to reduce traffic accident and to improve VTS operating system. 2) It is discovered for statistical discrepancy between vessels controlled by VTS and vessels not controlled by VTS in accident cause, visibility, perception distance and cause of late perception in collision accidents 3) It is necessary for VTS assistance to be positive and to made in ample time consecutively. 4) As the result of traffic accident prediction model, it is necessary to develop a system improving VTS operators' ability to identify dangerous ships.

Evaluation of SPACE Code Prediction Capability for CEDM Nozzle Break Experiment with Safety Injection Failure (안전주입 실패를 동반한 제어봉구동장치 관통부 파단 사고 실험 기반 국내 안전해석코드 SPACE 예측 능력 평가)

  • Nam, Kyung Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.37 no.5
    • /
    • pp.80-88
    • /
    • 2022
  • The Korean nuclear industry had developed the SPACE (Safety and Performance Analysis Code for nuclear power plants) code, which adopts a two-fluid, three-field model that is comprised of gas, continuous liquid and droplet fields and has the capability to simulate three-dimensional models. According to the revised law by the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC) in Korea, the multiple failure accidents that must be considered for the accident management plan of a nuclear power plant was determined based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima accident. Generally, to improve the reliability of the calculation results of a safety analysis code, verification is required for the separate and integral effect experiments. Therefore, the goal of this work is to verify the calculation capability of the SPACE code for multiple failure accidents. For this purpose, an experiment was conducted to simulate a Control Element Drive Mechanism (CEDM) break with a safety injection failure using the ATLAS test facility, which is operated by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). This experiment focused on the comparison between the experiment results and code calculation results to verify the performance of the SPACE code. The results of the overall system transient response using the SPACE code showed similar trends with the experimental results for parameters such as the system pressure, mass flow rate, and collapsed water level in component. In conclusion, it can be concluded that the SPACE code has sufficient capability to simulate a CEDM break with a safety injection failure accident.

A flammability limit model for hydrogen-air-diluent mixtures based on heat transfer characteristics in flame propagation

  • Jeon, Joongoo;Choi, Wonjun;Kim, Sung Joong
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.51 no.7
    • /
    • pp.1749-1757
    • /
    • 2019
  • Predicting lower flammability limits (LFL) of hydrogen has become an ever-important task for safety of nuclear industry. While numerous experimental studies have been conducted, LFL results applicable for the harsh environment are still lack of information. Our aim is to develop a calculated non-adiabatic flame temperature (CNAFT) model to better predict LFL of hydrogen mixtures in nuclear power plant. The developed model is unique for incorporating radiative heat loss during flame propagation using the CNAFT coefficient derived through previous studies of flame propagation. Our new model is more consistent with the experimental results for various mixtures compared to the previous model, which relied on calculated adiabatic flame temperature (CAFT) to predict the LFL without any consideration of heat loss. Limitation of the previous model could be explained clearly based on the CNAFT coefficient magnitude. The prediction accuracy for hydrogen mixtures at elevated initial temperatures and high helium content was improved substantially. The model reliability was confirmed for $H_2-air$ mixtures up to $300^{\circ}C$ and $H_2-air-He$ mixtures up to 50 vol % helium concentration. Therefore, the CNAFT model developed based on radiation heat loss is expected as the practical method for predicting LFL in hydrogen risk analysis.

Selection of Important Variables in the Classification Model for Successful Flight Training (조종사 비행훈련 성패예측모형 구축을 위한 중요변수 선정)

  • Lee, Sang-Heon;Lee, Sun-Doo
    • IE interfaces
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.41-48
    • /
    • 2007
  • The main purpose of this paper is cost reduction in absurd pilot positive expense and human accident prevention which is caused by in the pilot selection process. We use classification models such as logistic regression, decision tree, and neural network based on aptitude test results of 505 ROK Air Force applicants in 2001~2004. First, we determine the reliability and propriety against the aptitude test system which has been improved. Based on this conference flight simulator test item was compared to the new aptitude test item in order to make additional yes or no decision from different models in terms of classification accuracy, ROC and Response Threshold side. Decision tree was selected as the most efficient for each sequential flight training result and the last flight training results predict excellent. Therefore, we propose that the standard of pilot selection be adopted by the decision tree and it presents in the aptitude test item which is new a conference flight simulator test.

RADAP-A PC Program for Real-Time Prediction of Doses Following a Nuclear Accident (RADAP-원자력 사고후 실시간 선량 예측용 PC 전산프로그램)

  • Park, Jae-Won;Kang, Chang-Sun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.25 no.1
    • /
    • pp.102-109
    • /
    • 1993
  • A PC-computer program RADAP has been developed in this study to perform a quick real-time analysis of dose assessment following an accident in a nuclear facility. RADAP uses an interactive LKagrangian puff model in simulating the transport and diffusion of radioactive plume in the atmosphere. For real-time analysis, RADAP treats one or multiple puffs of ground-level releases, simultaneously. It is assumed to maintain a Gaussian distribution within the puff and the diffusion coefficients are computed using the USNRC's normal sigma curve method. The program, however, does not consider the spatial variations but the temporal variations in wind conditions. Whole body and thyroid doses for 3$\times$31 grid are directed to output files, and they are also displayed through computer graphics on VGA or EGA color monitor. The results show that RADAP can be an excellent tool for quick estimation of accidental doses.

  • PDF