• 제목/요약/키워드: Accident Frequency

검색결과 632건 처리시간 0.023초

EPS 공정의 정량적 위험성 평가를 통한 안전의사결정에 관한 연구 (A Study on the EPS Process of Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Safety Decision Making)

  • 정재희;김형석;최광석;이영순
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 1999
  • The quantitative risk assessment and consequence analysis by accident scenario in the process of EPS(Expendable Poly Stylene) reaction process are conducted. And the decision making process is studied followed by selecting various alternatives to safety management and facility improvement. The result are as follows; 1) The object of decision making through comprehensive risk assessment are the scenario which can cause four major accident, which are made by process analysis, work analysis and hazard identification. 2) Frequency analysis of ETA, FTA, HRA and consequence analysis of accident to each have been conducted. The each frequency values are yielded $9.2{\times}10_{-5}/yr$ to scenarios $1, 8.2{\times}10^{-4}/yr$ to scenario 2, $4.5{\times}10^{-6}/yr$ scenario 3 and $1.8{\times}10^{-7}/yr$ to scenario 4. The each scenarios have been conducted consequence analysis. 3) The calculated values have been obtained 4.00 to scenario 1, 3.25 to scenario 2, 2.43 to scenario 3 and 1.34 to scenario 4, as the weight value had been applied to the quantitative and normalized criteria of all components. As a risk criteria, scenario 1 have been selected, which is the most dangerous scenario as a result of ranking the scenario. 4) According to the importance of FTA and contribute to scenario 1, the cost-benefit values are yielded $8.05\times10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(Al), $1.55{\times}10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(A2) and $2.32{\times}10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(A3). As a result of final alternative(Al) has been selected, which is the most optimized alternative.

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인간-기계 시스템 모델에 의한 크레인 사망재해 분석 (Analysis of Crane Accidents by Using a Man-Machine System Model)

  • 박재희;박태주;임현교;서은홍
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2007
  • As the need of handling heavy materials increases, various cranes are used in industries. However, the effectiveness of crane also entails industrial accidents such as falling, constriction etc. In fact, the number of fatal accidents caused by crane is still high in Korea. To find out the causes of the accidents in terms of human error, we developed a man-machine system model that consists of two axes; human information processing and crane life cycle. In the human information processing dimension, we simplified it as five functions; sensing and perception, decision making and memory, response etc. In the crane life cycle dimension, we divided it into nine phases; design, production, operation etc. For the 152 fatal accident records during 1999-2006 years, we classified them into 45 cells made by two axes. Then we identified the preceding causes of the classified crane accident based on performance shaping factors. As the results of statistical analysis, the overall trend of crane fatal accidents was described. For the cause analysis, wrong decision making in work plan phase shows the highest frequency. Next, the poor information input in crane operation followed in accident frequency. In ergonomics view, the problems of interface design in displays and controls made 11.8% of fatal accidents. Following the analysis, several ergonomic design guidelines to prevent crane accidents were suggested.

PSA를 이용한 연구용 원자로 안전성 향상 방안 도출 (Design Improvement to a Research Reactor for Safety Enhancement using PSA)

  • 이윤환
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제33권5호
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    • pp.157-163
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    • 2018
  • This paper describes design improvement to a research rector for safety enhancement using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). This PSA under reactor design was undertaken to assess the level of safety for the design of a research reactor and to evaluate whether it is probabilistically safe to operate and reliable to use. The scope of the PSA reported here is a Level 1 PSA, which addresses the risks associated with the core damage. The technical objectives of this study were to identify accident sequences leading to core damage and to derive design improvement from the dominant accident sequences through the sensitivity analysis. The AIMS-PSA and FTREX were used for the this PSA of the research reactor. The criterion for inclusion was all sequences with a point estimate frequency greater than a truncation value of 1.0E-14/yr. The final result indicates a point estimate of 6.79E-05/yr for the overall Core Damage Frequency (CDF) attributable to internal initiating events for the research reactor under design. Based on the dominant accident sequences from the PSA, the seven kinds of sensitivity analysis were performed and some design improvement items were derived. When the five methods to improve the safety were all applied to the reactor design and emergency operating procedure, its risk was reduced to about 1.21E-06/yr from 6.79E-05/yr. The contribution of LOCA and LOEP with high CDF were significantly reduced by the sensitivity analysis. The safety of the research reactor was well improved and the risk was reduced than before adapting the design improvement gotten from the sensitivity analysis. The present study indicated that the research reactor has the well-balanced safety in regard to each initiating event contribution to CDF. The PSA methodology is very effective to improve reactor safety in a conceptual design phase and especially, Risk-informed design(RID) is very nice way to find the deficiencies of research reactor under design and to improve the reactor safety by solving them.

퍼지 및 신경망 이론을 이용한 교통사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구 (Development of Traffic Accidents Prediction Model With Fuzzy and Neural Network Theory)

  • 김장욱;남궁문;김정현;이수범
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제24권7호
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2006
  • 교통사고를 줄이기 위한 방안으로써 교통사고와 다양한 요인과의 관계를 규명하는 것이 시급한 현실의 과제일 것이다. 본 연구에서는 전북권의 교통사고가 가장 많고, 치사율이 가장 높은 국도 17호선(전주-남원)를 대상으로 교통사고의 원인이 되는 다양한 요인들이 교통사고에 어느 정도 영향을 미치고 있는지에 대하여 교통안전분야에서 자주 사용되어오던 다중회귀이론, 수량화이론을 적용하여 교통사고예측모델을 구축하였다. 또한 데이터의 불확실성 상태를 합리적으로 처리할 수 있는 퍼지 추론이론 및 인간의 신경계를 수학적으로 모형화하여 학습에 의한 예측에 있어 뛰어난 것으로 알려져 있는 신경망이론을 적용한 교통사고예측모델을 구축하였다 이를 통해, 퍼지추론이론 및 신경망 이론의 유효성을 입증하고 교통사고분석 분야의 적용 타당성을 확인하는데 초점을 맞추고 있다.

지방부 다차로 도로구간에서의 사고 예측모형 개발 (대도시권 외곽 및 구릉지 특성의 도로구간 중심으로) (Development of a Accident Frequency Prediction Model at Rural Multi-Lane Highways)

  • 이동민;김도훈;성낙문
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.207-215
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    • 2009
  • 도로구간에서의 주행조건은 연속적인 도로축 상에서 구간별로 변하게 되고 이에 따라 도로에서의 교통사고는 도로 기하구조 변수뿐만 아니라 도로주변 환경변수, 교통조건 변수 그리고 기타 다양한 변수들에 의해서 발생하게 된다. 따라서 본 연구는 현장조사를 통해 얻어진 다양한 도로기하구조 요소를 고려하여 동질성을 갖춘 구간 분할 후에 도로를 구성하는 도로 기하구조, 교통조건, 도로주변 환경 그리고 기타 다양한 요소들을 복합적으로 반영하고자 한다. 이를 반영하기 위해 본 연구에서는 도로구간의 주행조건을 결정짓는 주요인들에 의해서 주행조건 동질구간을 결정하고, 각 동질구간에서의 도로 및 교통조건 등을 고려하여 사고예측 모형을 개발하였다. 모형 개발을 위해 사용된 자료는 대도시권 외곽과 평지 및 구릉지를 대표할 수 있는 수도권 외곽내에 지방부 도로구간과 전라북도 지방부 도로구간에서 수집되었다. 본 연구에서는 연속된 도로구간에서 사고건수가 "0"인 구간수가 매우 높게 나타나므로 이에 대한 과대 예측을 방지하기 위해 ZIP(Zero Inflated Poisson) 모형을 이용하였다. 사고예측모형 개발 결과 지방부 다차로 도로구간에서 교통사고에 영향을 미치는 변수로는 교통량과 도로구간 길이를 포함한 EXPO($365{\times}ADT{\times}Length{\times}Year/10^{-6}$), 곡선반경, 종단구배변화, 가드레일, 지형(산악지), 횡단보도개수, 버스정류장 개수가 지방부 다차로 도로구간에서의 차대차 사고에 영향을 미치는 주요 설명변수로 나타났다.

산업단지 유형에 따른 교통사고 특성 비교 분석 (Comparative analysis of Traffic Accidents Characteristics using Various Types of Industrial Complexes)

  • 이유화;정병철
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제19권6호
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    • pp.201-212
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSES : The objective of this study is to identify the characteristics affecting traffic accidents that have occurred in 564 industrial complexes nationwide from 2011 to 2015. METHODS : The traffic accidents were specified using various factors such as industrial complex type (national VS. general), industrial complex degradation (old VS. non-old), location of complex (capital VS. non-capital), and traffic law violation (speeding, signal violation, and median invasion). The average number of crashes and accident ratio (fatal, severe, and both) in terms of characteristics of industrial complexes were calculated. With a sample of crashes of the industrial complexes for 5 years, statistical significances were tested to analyze and compare the differences based on industrial complex and traffic law characteristics using parametric and non-parametric methods. RESULTS : From statistical results, it is observed that the crash frequency occurring in old industrial complexes is three times higher than that in non-old industrial complexes. Old industrial complexes located in a capital area, old national industrial complexes, and old general industrial complexes are considerably related to higher crash frequency, but the fatal accident ratio appeared to have no statistical difference across industrial complex characteristics. Severe crashes are more likely to occur in non-old industrial complexes on an average. CONCLUSIONS : It is necessary to eliminate potential threats to roads and traffic in the same manner as illegal parking in industrial complexes through the restoration of old industrial complexes. To improve the efficiency of road infrastructure, efforts should be made to improve traffic safety in accordance with industrial characteristics such as planning and operation of relevant local government programs.

구강악안면 외상환자의 조직손상의 양상 및 정도에 관한 임상적 연구 (A CLINICAL STUDY OF THE APPEARANCE AND DEGREE OF THE FACIAL INJURIES)

  • 소병수;안태섭;윤철희;진우정;신효근
    • Maxillofacial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.264-276
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    • 1995
  • This is a clinical and retrospective study on the patients with oral and maxillofacial trauma. This study was based on a series of 917 patients were treated as in-patients, at Chon-buk National University Hospital, during the period of Jan., 1989 through Dec., 1993. The results obtained were as follows : 1. The ratio of men to women were 3.59 : 1 in oral and maxillofacial injuries, 3.92 : 1 in facial bone fractures, and 3.18 : 1 in soft tissue injuries. 2. The oral and maxillofacial injuries occurred most frequently in the third decade(32.2%), and fourth, second, fifth decade in orders. 3. The major etiologic factors were traffic accident(57.4%) and fall-down(17.1%), interpersonal accident(16.6%), and industrial accident were next in order of frequency. 4. The incidence of facial bone fracture was 72.1%, soft tissue injury 58.8%, and dental injury 40.5%. 5. The most common site of fracture were mandible(62.9%) and maxilla(19.9%), zygoma and zygomatic arch(18.7%), and nasal bone(4.7%) were next in order of frequency. 6. The most common type of soft tissue injury was laceration(51.0%). The lesion of soft tissue injuries were mostly 1 or 2 lesions and deep.

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화학공장의 안전 설비 투자를 위한 비용$\cdot$편익 분석 시스템 개발 (Development of the Cost-Benefit Analysis System for the Investment of Safety Facilities in Chemical Plant)

  • 고재욱;서재민;김대흠
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2003
  • 본 연구에서는 화학설비의 취약점을 파악하여 안전성을 경제적으로 확보할 수 있는 대안에 대한 설비별 안전투자비용과 그에 따른 편익을 산출하고, 분석함으로써 경제적인 안전 투자 대안을 제시할 수 있는 시스템을 개발하였다. 이를 위해 화학설비의 위험성을 정량적으로 평가하기 위한 사고 빈도 분석 모듈과 사고 피해 예측 모듈을 개발하고, 중대산업사고 사례 및 선진국(네덜란드, 호주, 미국, 영국, 독일 등)의 사회적 위험성을 비교 $\cdot$ 분석하여 국내 현실에 반영할 수 있는 사회적 위험성(societal risk : F-N Curve) 기준을 제시하였다. 또한, 현장 방문을 통하여 공정에 대한 투자비용과 그에 따른 편익 항목을 분석$\cdot$선정하여 앞의 결과들을 통하여 화학설비에서 발생하는 비용$\cdot$편익에 대한 안전투자대안의 순현재가치(NVP, Net Present Value)를 도출하여 안전성을 향상시킬 수 있는 대안들을 분석하고 비교할 수 있는 시스템을 개발하였다.

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빔튜브파단 냉각재상실사고시 원자로냉각수 보충방법 변경이 리스크에 미치는 영향 (Effect of Change of Reactor Coolant Injection Method on Risk at Loss of Coolant Accident due to Beam Tube Rupture)

  • 이윤환;이병희;장승철
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제37권4호
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2022
  • A new method for injecting cooling water into the Korean research reactor (KRR) in the event of beam tube rupture is proposed in this paper. Moreover, the research evaluates the risk to the reactor core in terms of core damage frequency (CDF). The proposed method maintains the cooling water in the chimney at a certain level in the tank to prevent nuclear fuel damage solely by gravitational coolant feeding from the emergency water supply system (EWSS). This technique does not require sump recirculation operations described in the current procedure for resolving beam tube accidents. The reduction in the risk to the core in the event of beam tube rupture that can be achieved by the proposed change in the cooling water injection design is quantified as follows. 1) The total CDF of the KRR for the proposed design change is approximately 4.17E-06/yr, which is 8.4% lower than the CDF of the current design (4.55E-06/yr). 2) The CDF for beam tube rupture is 7.10E-08/yr, which represents an 84.1% decrease compared with that of the current design (4.49E-07/yr). In addition to this quantitative reduction in risk, the modified cooling water injection design maintains a supply of pure coolant to the EWSS tank. This means that the reactor does not require decontamination after an accident. Thermal hydraulic analysis proves that the water level in the reactor pool does not cause damage to the nuclear fuel cladding after beam tube rupture. This is because the amount of water in the chimney can be regulated by the EWSS function. The EWSS supplies emergency water to the reactor core to compensate for the evaporation of coolant in the core, thus allowing water to cover the fuel assemblies in the reactor core over a sufficient amount of time.

화학사고 빈도가 높은 산 계열 물질의 취급 특성 연구 (A Study on the Characteristics of Production and Using for Acidic Chemicals with High Accident Frequency)

  • 김기준;이진선;윤영삼;정미숙;윤준헌;석광설
    • 한국위험물학회지
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2014
  • Acidic chemicals like sulfuric acid, nitric acid and hydrogen chloride take up 37% of the total chemical accidents which took place for the past 10 years. When an acidic chemical leak happens, fume is generated, diffusing into the air, which might cause serious damage to health of local residents and the environment. However, we have only little reference data for production and using of acidic chemicals. In this study, we investigated characteristics of production and using for acidic chemicals with high accident frequency. As a results, domestic chemical accidents were categorized according to chemical types and production, using, and handling characteristics of acidic chemicals were identified. Sulfuric acid was handled in the largest amount, followed in the order of hydrogen chloride, nitric acid, acrylic acid, and hydrogen fluoride. Sulfuric acid is used in the industry of manufacturing composite fertilizer and mainly used for manufacturing fertilizer. Hydrogen chloride is used in the industry of manufacturing basic chemicals for petrochemical family and mainly used for pH regulator. It is expected that this results could be used as preliminary data for making decisions on facilities required intensive management in order to prevent chemical accidents and prepare countermeasures against such accidents.