• Title/Summary/Keyword: ARDL-bounds 검정

Search Result 5, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

ARDL-Bounds Testing Approaches to the Factor Price Equalization: The Case of Korea, U.S., and Japan (ARDL-Bounds Test에 의한 요소가격균등화 검정: 한국, 미국, 일본을 중심으로)

  • Rhee, Hyun-Jae
    • International Area Studies Review
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.101-123
    • /
    • 2011
  • The paper is basically attempted to reveal the factor price equalization(FPE) on Korea, United States, and Japan by the ARDL-bounds testing. Wage-rental ratio and relative commodity prices between Korea, United States, and Japan are analyzed by employing equality and convergence frameworks. Empirical evidences are shown that necessary and sufficient conditions for the FPE seems to be easily satisfied in a small country such as Korea rather than large ones as like United States and Japan. And, the FPE is more easily achieved by a nominal term rather than the real term. Due to the fact that an error correction term in the Error Correction Model is insignificant, direct mobility of labor and capital between the countries is not that effective to a short run adjustment. It implies that the FPE is in general going through a long run path. It also has to be mentioned that a trade policy has to selectively implemented depending on the weight of trading volumes and it has to be build up by a long run basis.

Effects of Movements in Stock Prices and Real Estate Prices on Money Demand: Cross Country Study (주가 및 부동산가격이 화폐수요에 미치는 부의 효과: 국가 간 비교분석)

  • Chang, Byoung-Ky
    • International Area Studies Review
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.219-240
    • /
    • 2011
  • The main purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of stock price and real estate price on the money demand. We investigated the demand for money for 25 money units of 10 countries. To estimate the money demand functions, Johansen's cointegration and ARDL-bounds test were employed. Additionally, Stock and Watson's DOLS method was applied to estimate long-run cointegration vectors. According to the results of cointegration test, stock price and real estate price are crucial in the long-run equilibrium relationship. There were no cointegration relationships among money demand, real income, interest rate, and exchange rate in 12 money unit models. However, by including stock price and real estate price on the tested models, we could find strong cointegration relationships, using ARDL-bounds test. The results of DOLS confirm that stock price and real estate price are effective factors influencing on money demands. Especially, the coefficient of real estate price is statistically significant in the 19 out of 20 money unit models. However, the direction and magnitude of coefficients of asset prices are different across countries and money units.

Estimating the Elasticity of Crude Oil Demand in Korea (한국 원유수요의 탄력성 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.37 no.3
    • /
    • pp.65-81
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study estimated the long-run and the short-run price and income elasticity of crude oil demand by using the ARDL model in Korea. First, the long-run cointegration relationship existed between crude oil demand and price or income in the ARDL-bounds tests. Second, the long-run own price, the cross price elasticity and the income elasticity were both statistically significant elastic and sensitive in the ARDL. Third, there was autocorrelation of the residuals, but no misspecification errors and heteroscedasticity, and then the residuals showed a normal distribution. And the CUSUM & CUSUMSQ tests showed that the coefficients were stable. Fourth, the short-run own price, the cross price elasticity and the income elasticity were both statistically significant elastic and sensitive in the ARDL-RECM. The ECM with the short-run dynamics showed rapid adjustments in the long-run equilibrium of oil demand after the economic crisis. In the short-run, the sensitivity of crude oil demand to price and income changes has moved in the same direction as the long-run case. Korea, depending too much on foreign crude oil, is vulnerable to the shocks of oil prices, so rising oil prices can certainly have a negative impact on Korea's trade balance. And the elasticity of long-run oil prices may help to control and manage Korea's oil demand. The government needs to strengthen monitoring of the country's policies and market trends related to crude oil, establish strategies to customize national policies and market conditions, and strengthen active market dominance efforts through pioneering new market and diversification.

An Empirical Study on Main Factors Affecting Technology Balance of Payments (기술무역수지에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인들에 대한 실증연구)

  • Pak, Cheolmin;Ku, Bonchul
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
    • /
    • v.25 no.1
    • /
    • pp.61-89
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study aims to estimate empirically the respective impacts of R&D expenditure, R&D labor, overseas direct investment, commodity trade balance, and technology trade openness on technology balance of payments. To examine the presence of co-integration between them, this paper employed the ARDL-bounds test using time series data from 1981 to 2014, and the result shows that there is a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among them. Furthermore, we estimated long- and short-run coefficients of the technology balance of payments with respect to each variables based on long-run equilibrium equation and error correction model. As a result, the technology balance of payments respond negatively to R&D labor and technology trade openness, and R&D expenditure does produce positive effects in the long-run, while coefficients of overseas direct investment and commodity trade balance in the long-run are not statistically significant. Besides, according to results of error correction model, overseas direct investment only has clearly a positive effects in the short-run, in contrast, the short-term relationships between the other variables and the technology balance of payments could not definitively derived. This implies that it is necessary to procure and cultivate talented personnel, as well as to enlarge gradually technology trade size in order to improve technology balance of payments from a long-term point of view.

An Analysis on TV VOD Demand: Focusing on Time Series Analysis (TV VOD 수요 분석: 시계열분석을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Ki Jin;Choi, Sung-Hee
    • Review of Culture and Economy
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.59-88
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study examines demand of the Korean TV VOD using monthly aggregate data and time series analysis models. In particular, the impact of box office attendance, number of IPTV subscribers, income and price of substitutes on TV VOD market is analyzed. Data on TV VOD download during the period 2013 January to 2018 June are used for the empirical analysis. TV VOD demand shows lower level of seasonality than box office attendance and the share of monthly top1 movie in TV VOD platform is also lower than that of box office attendance. The relationship between a movie's holdback and box office performance does not seem consistent. The empirical result of ARDL model reveals that in the short-run box office attendance, number of IPTV subscribers and price of substitutes have significant impact on TV VOD demand. The result on the long-term relation shows that income is the only determinant of TV VOD demand. The impact of box office attendance on TV VOD is not shown to be robust both for the short-term and long-term.