• Title/Summary/Keyword: A1B scenario

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Water Supply Reliability Revaluation For Agricultural Water Supply Pattern Changes Considering Climate Changes (기후변화에 따른 농업용수공급패턴의 변화로 인한 이수안전도변화분석)

  • Choi, Young-Don;Ahn, Jong-Seo;Shin, Hyun-Suk;Cha, Hyung-Sun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.273-277
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    • 2010
  • This research was performed to examine changes in the timing of the growth of crops along with changes in temperatures due tochanges and to analyze the change of water-supply-reliability by adding an analysis of the change of agricultural water supply patterns in the basin area of Miryang dam in Korea. Had-CM3 model from U.K. was the tool adopted for the GCM model, a stochastic, daily-meteorology-generation-model called LARS-WG was alsoused for downscaling and for the climate change scenario (A1B) which represents Korea's circumstances best. First of all, to calculate changes in the timing of the growth of crops during this period, the theory of GDD was applied. Except for the period of transplanting and irrigation, there was no choice but to find the proper accumulated temperature by comparing actual temperature data and the supply pattern of agricultural use due to limited temperature data. As a result, proper temperatures were found for each period. $400^{\circ}C$ for the preparation period of a nursery bed, $704^{\circ}C$ for a nursery bed's period, $1,295^{\circ}C$ for the rice-transplanting period, $1,744^{\circ}C$ for starting irrigation, and $3,972^{\circ}C$ for finishing irrigation. To analyze future agricultural supply patter changes, the A1B scenario of Had-CM3 model was adopted, and then Downscaling was conducted adopting LARS-WG. To conduct a stochastical analysis of LARS-WG, climate scenarios were generated for the periods 2011~2030, 2046~2065, 2080~2099 using the data of precipitation andMax/Min temperatures collected from the Miryang gauging station. Upon reviewing the result of the analysis of accumulated temperatures from 2011~2030, the supply of agricultural water was 10 days earlier, and in the next periods-2046~2065, 2080~2099 it also was 10 days earlier. With these results, it is assumed that the supply of agricultural water should be about 1 month ahead of the existing schedule to meet the proper growth conditions of crops. From the results of the agricultural water supply patterns should be altered, but the reliability of water supply becomes more favorable, which is caused from the high precipitation change. Furthermore, since the unique characteristics of precipitation in Korea, which has high precipitation in the summer, water-supply-reliability has a pattern that the precipitation in September could significantly affect the chances of drought the following winter and spring. It could be more risky to make changes to the constant supply pattern under these conditions due to the high uncertainty of future precipitation. Although, several researches have been conducted concerning climate changes, in the field of water-industry, those researches have been solely dependent on precipitation. Even so, with the high uncertainty of precipitation, it is difficult for it to be reflected in government policy. Therefore, research in the field of water-supply-patterns or evapotranspiration according to the temperature or other diverse effects, which has higher reliability on anticipation, could obtain more reliable results in the future and that could result in water-resource maintenance to be safer and a more advantageous environment.

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Simulation of the GHG Emissions Impact on Climate Change from Radish Field (기후변화에 따른 무 밭의 온실가스 배출량 모의)

  • Shin, Min Hwan;Lee, Su In;Jang, Jeong Ryeol;Shin, Jae Young;Park, Youn Shik;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Choi, Joong Dae
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2015
  • This study was conducted to predict greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from a radish field by future climate change scenario. A radish field located at Chuncheon-si Gangwon-do was selected, and A1B Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental panel on climate change) was applied to simulate the future potential climate change. Rainfall and temperature data were predicted to be increased by 8.4 % and 1.9 % in 2040s, 35.9 % and 27.0 % in 2060s, 19.2 % and 30.8 % in 2090s, respectively, compared to the climate data in 2010s. The $N_2O$, $CO_2$, and $CH_4$ emission were estimated to be increased by 0.4 up to 2.4 kg/ha/yr, by 500.5 up to 734.5 kg/ha/year, and by 29.4 up to 160.4 kg/ha/yr, which were resulted from the global warming potential (GWP) of 14.5~21.7 $CO_2$/ha/year caused by the amount changes of rainfall, temperature, manure amendment, and fertilizer applied in fields. One distinct feature of the study result was that the changes of $N_2O-N$, $CH_4-C$ and $CO_2-C$ with future potential climate change simulation were varied by soil texture. Therefore it was concluded that there is a need to apply appropriate amount of manure amendment needs and to consider soil texture as well.

Influence of Land Cover Map and Its Vegetation Emission Factor on Ozone Concentration Simulation (토지피복 지도와 식생 배출계수가 오존농도 모의에 미치는 영향)

  • Kyeongsu Kim;Seung-Jae Lee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.48-59
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    • 2023
  • Ground-level ozone affects human health and plant growth. Ozone is produced by chemical reactions between oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from anthropogenic and biogenic sources. In this study, two different land cover and emission factor datasets were input to the MEGAN v2.1 emission model to examine how these parameters contribute to the biogenic emissions and ozone production. Four input sensitivity scenarios (A, B, C and D) were generated from land cover and vegetation emission factors combination. The effects of BVOCs emissions by scenario were also investigated. From air quality modeling result using CAMx, maximum 1 hour ozone concentrations were estimated 62 ppb, 60 ppb, 68 ppb, 65 ppb, 55 ppb for scenarios A, B, C, D and E, respectively. For maximum 8 hour ozone concentration, 57 ppb, 56 ppb, 63 ppb, 60 ppb, and 53 ppb were estimated by scenario. The minimum difference by land cover was up to 25 ppb and by emission factor that was up to 35 ppb. From the modeling performance evaluation using ground ozone measurement over the six regions (East Seoul, West Seoul, Incheon, Namyangju, Wonju, and Daegu), the model performed well in terms of the correlation coefficient (0.6 to 0.82). For the 4 urban regions (East Seoul, West Seoul, Incheon, and Namyangju), ozone simulations were not quite sensitive to the change of BVOC emissions. For rural regions (Wonju and Daegu) , however, BVOC emission affected ozone concentration much more than previously mentioned regions, especially in case of scenario C. This implies the importance of biogenic emissions on ozone production over the sub-urban to rural regions.

Outlook of Discharge for Dam Watershed Using RCM and SWAT Based on A1B Scenario (A1B시나리오 기반 RCM과 SWAT모형을 이용한 댐유역 유출량 전망)

  • Park, Jin-Hyeog;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Chae, Hyo-Sok;No, Sun-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.354-354
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    • 2011
  • 금강유역에 대한 기후변화 영향을 기후모형 및 수자원영향평가모형을 통하여 정량적으로 분석하기 위하여 한반도 최적 GCM모형으로 기상청에서 제공하는 ECHO-G GCM모형과 역학적 다운스케일링 기법을 이용한 공간해상도 27km의 지역규모의 MM5 RCM모형을 이용하였다. A1B시나리오 기반으로 고해상도 기후변화 시나리오를 작성하여 분석기간을 2015년대(2001-2030), 2045년대(2031-2060), 2075년대(2061-2090)로 구분하여 미래 연평균강수량, 기온 등을 전망하였고, 과거 30년 자료의 100년빈도 강수량과 미래의 100년 빈도강수량의 변동성을 평가하였다. 기본적으로 GCM 및 RCM은 시공간적 스케일의 상이성으로 인해 수자원 영향 평가를 위한 자료로서 직접적인 이용은 현실적으로 곤란하다는 점에서 본 연구에서는 RCM 격자자료를 유역단위에서 강우관측소 지점 단위로 공간적 Downscaling을 실시하였으며 RCM 월자료에 대해서 일단위 자료로 시간적 Downscaling을 수행하여 기후모델로부터 발생하는 시공간적 스케일의 문제점을 극복하였다. 또한 유역단위의 상세수문시나리오를 생산하기 위해서 다지점 비정상성 Downscaling 기법을 활용하여 기존 일강수량 모의기법에서 간과 되었던 비정상성을 고려하여 미래 기후변화에 따른 강수사상의 변동성을 다양한 방법으로 검토하였다. 2001년~2006년 기간동안 SWAT모형을 이용하여 용담댐유역 용담댐 지점의 유입량과 SWAT의 최종방류부의 유량분석값을 비교한 결과 모의치와 실측치가 90.1% 일치하는 것으로 나타났고, 천천수위관측소 지점의 유량을 모형결과와 비교분석 한 결과에서도 91.3% 일치하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 대청댐 지점의 유입량과 SWAT의 최종방류부의 유량분석값을 비교한 결과 모의치와 실측치가 84.4% 일치하는 것으로 나타나 금강유역내 용담댐 및 대청댐을 대상으로 유출분석 검토 결과 적용성이 있음을 확인하였다. 기후변화 분석기간은 2011년부터 2090년까지 80년을 대상기간 으로 선정하였으며, 분석결과 2011~2020년 사이 유출량이 18%증가하는 것으로 전망되었다.

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Application of SWAT Model for Jiseok Stream Basin using Climate Change A1B Scenario (기후변화 A1B 시나리오를 이용한 지석천 유역의 SWAT 모형적용)

  • Park, Sung-Chun;Moon, Byeong-Seok;Oh, Chang-Ryeol;Yang, Dong-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.260-264
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    • 2012
  • 전 지구적으로 지구온난화로 인해 기후변화가 일어나고 있으며 이에 대해 다양한 방면에서 기후변화에 대한 대응, 적응, 극복을 위한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 선진국에서는 일찍이 기후 변화관련 영향을 정량적으로 평가하고 치수정책에 반영하고자 노력하고 있으며, 우리나라의 경우도 2000년에 들어서 기후변화 관련 연구를 본격적으로 시작하였다. 지난 100년 동안 한반도 기온은 약 $1.7^{\circ}C$ 상승하여 세계온도의 증가율에 비해 2.3배 상승하였고, 최근 50년 동안 우리나라 강수량을 분석한 결과 전국적으로 강수일수는 감소하고 일강수량 80mm 이상인 호우발생 빈도는 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 남부지역에서는 연강수량이 7% 증가하고 연 강수일수는 14% 감소하며 강수강도는 18% 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이상의 결과를 종합해 볼 때, 우리나라는 기후변화의 영향으로 강우일수는 감소하고 연강우량은 증가하는 것을 알 수 있으며, 이는 곧 강우강도가 강해짐에 따라 홍수와 가뭄의 발생가능성이 증가될 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 홍수와 가뭄 발생에 대응하기 위한 기초자료를 제공하고자 지석천 유역의 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 유출량 변화를 모의하였으며, 이를 위해 분포형 장기 강우-유출모형인 SWAT(Soil And Water Assessment Tool)모형을 이용하였다. 기후변화 시나리오 자료는 국내 기상청에서 제공하는 수평격자 27km의 고해상도 RCM A1B 시나리오 자료를 사용하였으며, 1971~2010년 기간의 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 지석천 유역에 인접한 광주기상청 실측 기상자료와 비교하여 편이보정 후 2011~2100년 기간의 유출량을 모의하였다. 유출량 모의값에 대한 검 보정을 위하여 지석천유역의 하류지점인 남평지점의 실측 유량을 이용하여 검 보정을 실시하였으며, 2002~2005년 기간의 자료를 이용하였다. 검 보정 결과 2002~205년 기간 동안의 유출량 모의값은 실측유량값과 유사한 경향을 나타내었으며 본 연구의 목표인 2011~2100년까지의 유출량은 기후변화 시나리오의 내용과 비슷한 첨두유량이 증가함을 나타내었다.

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THE COSMIC EVOLUTION OF LUMINOUS INFRARED GALAXIES: STRONG INTERACTIONS/MERGERS OF GAS-RICH DISKS

  • SANDERS D. B.
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.149-158
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    • 2003
  • Deep surveys at mid-infared through submillimeter wavelengths indicate that a substantial fraction of the total luminosity output from galaxies at high redshift (z > 1) emerges at wavelengths 30 - 300${\mu}m$. In addition, much of the star formation and AGN activity associated with galaxy building at these epochs appears to reside in a class of luminous infrared galaxies (LIGs), often so heavily enshrouded in dust that they appear as 'blank-fields' in deep optical/UV surveys. Here we present an update on the state of our current knowledge of the cosmic evolution of LIGs from z = 0 to z $\~$ 4 based on the most recent data obtained from ongoing ground-based redshift surveys of sources detected in ISO and SCUBA deep fields. A scenario for the origin and evolution of LIGs in the local Universe (z < 0.3), based on results from multiwavelength observations of several large complete samples of luminous IRAS galaxies, is then discussed.

Simulation of GHG Emission from Paddy Field using DNDC Model (DNDC를 이용한 논의 온실가스 배출량 모의)

  • Shin, Min Hwan;Jang, Jeong Ryeol;Won, Chul Hee;Jung, Young Hun;Lee, Su In;Lim, Kyoung;Choi, Joong Dae
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.47-57
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    • 2014
  • This study was conducted to predict greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from paddy by future climate change scenario in Korea. Chuncheon city in Kangwon province were selected as study area. A1B Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental panel on climate change) was used to assess the future potential climate change. The rainfall and temperature was projected to increase by 8.4 % and 1.9 % (2040s), 35.9 % and 27.0 % (2060s), 19.2 % and 30.8 % (2090s), respectively, compare to the 2010s value. Under the climate change, Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) predicted an increase in $N_2O$, $CO_2$ and $CH_4$ emissions from paddy. The simulations resulted in annual net emissions of 0.4~2.4, 500.5~734.5 and 29.4~160.4 kg/ha/year of $N_2O-N$, $CH_4-C$ and $CO_2-C$, respectively, with a cumulated global warming potential (GWP) of $14.5{\sim}21.7t{\cdot}CO_2/ha/year$ were affected by rainfall, temperature, manure amendment and fertilizer amount. The simulation results suggested that implementation of manure amendment or reduction of water consumption instead of increased fertilizer application rates would more efficiently mitigate GHG emissions.

Test Item Prioritizing Metrics for a Selective Software Testing (차별화된 소프트웨어 시험을 위한 시험항목 우선순위 조정)

  • Lee, Jae-Ki;Lee, Jae-Jeong
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.33 no.1B
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    • pp.38-47
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    • 2008
  • The system test was accomplished in delivery time for a suitable of various requirements at the software market. Especially, critical faults must be detected and removed for a close main functions and users against target system. In generally, proposed test methods are executed with a calendar time, not a competitive and effectiveness method as selective software testing. These methods are inapplicable to short term test or early system development stage. Moreover, it's accompanied by heavy cost. Overcoming of these problems, must attempted to new software test method role of core function in the system test. Selective software testing method is decided to mixing with the three-information such as a frequency, complexity of use scenario and fault impact. Using this information, searching a fatal error and usefully system test for an executed test scenario. In this paper, we have proposed new test method and verified testing results for the detection of critical faults or search a fatal errors with a system main function.

Harmony Arrangements using B-Spline Tension Curves (B-스플라인 텐션 곡선을 이용한 음악 편곡)

  • Yoo, Min-Joon;Lee, In-Kwon;Kwon, Dae-Hyun
    • Journal of the HCI Society of Korea
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2006
  • We suggest a graphical representation of the tension flow in tonal music using a piecewise parametric curve, which is a function of time illustrating the changing degree of tension in a corresponding chord progression. The tension curve can be edited by using conventional curve editing techniques to reharmonize the original music with reflecting the user's demand to control the tension of music. We introduce three different methods to measure the tension of a chord in terms of a specific key, which can be used to represent the tension of the chord numerically. Then, by interpolating the series of numerical tension values, a tension curve is constructed. In this paper, we show the tension curve editing method can be effectively used in several interesting applications: enhancing or weakening the overall feeling of tension in a whole song, the local control of tension in a specific region of music, the progressive transition of tension flow from source to target chord progressions, and natural connection of two songs with maintaining the smoothness of the tension flow. Our work shows the possibility of controlling the perceptual factor (tension) in music by using numerical methods. Most of the computations used in this paper are not expensive so they can be calculated in real time. We think that an interesting application of our method is an interactive modification of tension in background music according to the user's emotion or current scenario in the interactive environments such as games.

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Assessment of Streamflow and Evapotranspiration Influence on the Climate Change under SRES A1B Scenario (기후변화에 따른 A1B 시나리오의 유출 및 증발산량 영향 평가)

  • Ahn, So-Ra;Park, Min-Ji;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.1097-1101
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 SLURP 수문모형을 이용하여 미래기후와 예측된 토지이용자료 및 식생의 활력도를 고려한 상태에서 하천유역의 유출 및 증발산량에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 경안천 상류유역($260.04\;km^2$)을 대상유역으로 선정하여 4개년(1999-2002) 동안의 일별 유출량 자료를 바탕으로 모형의 보정(1999-2000)과 검증(2001-2002)을 실시하였다. 모형의 보정 및 검정 결과 Nash-Sutcliffe 모형효율은 0.79에서 060의 범위로 나타났다. 미래 기후자료는 IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)에서 제공하는 A1B 기후변화시나리오의 MIROC3.2 hires, ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 모델의 결과값을 이용하였다. 먼저 과거 30년 기후자료(1977-2006, baseline)를 바탕으로 각 모델별 20C3M(20th Century Climate Coupled Model)의 모의 결과값을 이용하여 강수와 온도를 보정한 뒤 Change Factor Method로 Downscaling하였다. 미래 기후자료는 2020s(2010-2039), 2050s(2040-2069), 2080s(2070-2099)의 세 기간으로 나누어 분석하였다. 미래 토지이용은 과거 시계열 Landsat 토지이용도를 이용하여 CA-Markov기법으로 예측된 토지이용을 사용하였으며, 미래의 식생정보 예측을 위하여 NOAA/AVHRR 위성영상으로부터 추출된 월별 NDVI(1998-2002)와 월평균기온간의 선형 회귀식을 도출하여 미래의 식생지수 정보를 추정하였다. 모형의 적용결과, 미래기후변화에 따른 연평균 하천유출은 현재보다 최대 2020s는 23.9%, 2050s는 40.7%, 2080s는 39.5% 증가하였다. 봄 강수량 패턴의 변화로 유출량 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며 여름에는 유출량은 감소하고 증발산량은 증가하는 결과를 보였다.

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