• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1-19
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• 2014

This study aims to assess the slope stability variation of Jeonbuk drainage areas by RCM model outputs based on A1B climate change scenario and infinite slope stability model based on the previous research by Choi et al.(2013). For a large-scale slope stability analysis, we developed a GIS-based database regarding topographic, geologic and forestry parameters and also calculated daily maximum rainfall for the study period(1971~2100). Then, we assess slope stability variation of the 20 sub-catchments of Jeonbuk under the climate change scenario. The results show that the areal-average value of safety factor was estimated at 1.36(moderately stable) in spite of annual rainfall increase in the future. In addition, 7 sub-catchments became worse and 5 sub-catchments became better than the present period(1971~2000) in terms of safety factor in the future.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.383-391
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• 2015

As occurrence of gradually increasing extreme temperature events in Jeju Island, a hybrid downscaling technique that simultaneously applies by dynamical method and statistical method has implemented on design rainfall in order to reduce flood damages from severe storms and typhoons.As a result of computation, Case 1 shows a strong tendency to excessively compute rainfall, which is continuously increasing. While Case 2 showed similar trend as Case 1, low design rainfall has computed by rainfall in A1B scenario. Based on the design rainfall computation method mainly used in Preventive Disaster System through Pre-disaster Effect Examination System and Basic Plan for River of Jeju Island which are considering climatic change for selecting 50-year and 100-year frequencies. Case 3 selecting for Jeju rain gage station and Case 1 for Seogwipo rain gage station. The results were different for each rain gage station because of difference in rainfall characteristics according to recent climatic change, and the risk of currently known design rainfall can be increased in near future.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.71-80
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• 2012

Against the backdrop of the clear impact of climate change, it has become essential to analyze the influence of climate change and relevant vulnerabilities. This research involved evaluating the impact of heat waves in Seoul, from among many local autonomous bodies that are responsible for implementing measures on adapting to climate change. To carry out the evaluation, the A1B scenario was used to forecast future temperature levels. Future climate scenario results were downscaled to $1km{\times}1km$ to result in the incorporation of regional characteristics. In assessing the influence of heat waves on people-especially the excess mortality-we analyzed critical temperature levels that affect excess mortality and came up with the excess mortality. Results of this evaluation on the impact of climate change and vulnerabilities indicate that the number of days on which the daily average temperature reaches $28.1^{\circ}C$-the critical temperature for excess mortality-in Seoul will sharply increase in the 2050s and 2090s. The highest level of impact will be in the month of August. The most affected areas in the summer will be Songpa-gu, Gangnam-gu, and Yeongdeungpo-gu. These areas have a high concentration of residences which means that heat island effects are one of the reasons for the high level of impact. The excess mortality from heat waves is expected to be at least five times the current figure in 2090. Adaptation plan needs to be made on drawing up long-term adaptation measures as well as implementing short-term measures to minimize or adapt the impact of climate change.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.15-26
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• 2012

For stable and sustainable crop production, understanding the effects of climate changes on agricultural water resources is necessary to minimize the negative effects which might occur due to shifting weather conditions. Although various studies have been carried out in Korea concerning changes in evapotranspiration and irrigation water requirement, the findings are still difficult to utilize fordesigning the demand and unit duty of water, which are the design criteria of irrigation systems. In this study, the impact analysis of climate changes on the paddy water demand and unit duty of water was analyzed based on the high resolution climate change scenarios (specifically under the A1B scenario) provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The result of the study indicated that average changes in the paddy water demand in eight irrigation districts were estimated as -2.4 % (2025s), -0.2 % (2055s), and 3.2 % (2085s). The unit duty of water was estimated to increase on an average within 2 % during paddy transplanting season and within 5 % during growing season after transplanting. This result could be utilized for irrigation system design, agricultural water resource development, and rice paddy cultivation policy-making in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.136-149
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• 2011

The aim of this study is to develop future climate scenario by downscaling the regional climate model (RCM) from global climate model (GCM) based on IPCC A1B scenario. To this end, the study first resampled the KMA-RCM(Korea meteorological administration-regional climate model) from spatial resolution of 27km to 1km. Second, observed climatic data of temperature and rainfall through 1971-2000 were processed to reflect the temperature lapse rate with respect to the altitude of each meteorological observation station. To optimize the downscaled results, Co-kriging was used to calculate temperature lapse-rate; and IDW was used to calculate rainfall lapse rate. Fourth, to verify results of the study we performed correlation analysis between future climate change projection data and observation data through the years 2001-2010. In this study the past climate data (1971-2000), future climate change scenarios(A1B), KMA-RCM(Korea meteorological administration-regional climate model) results and the 1km DEM were used. The research area is entire South Korea and the study period is from 1971 to 2100. Monthly mean temperatures and rainfall with spatial resolution of 1km * 1km were produced as a result of research. Annual average temperature and precipitation had increased by $1.39^{\circ}C$ and 271.23mm during 1971 to 2100. The development of downscaling method using GIS and verification with observed data could reduce the uncertainty of future climate change projection.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.42 no.3 s.120
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• pp.355-367
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• 2007

As the global warming has been influenced on various sectors including agriculture, fisheries and health, it is essential to project more accurate future climate for an assessment of climate change impact and adaptation strategy. The purpose of this study is to examine the boundary changes in the subtropical climate region in South Korea using observed 30-year(1971-2000) data and projected 100-year data based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. We have selected Trewartha's climate classification among various climate classification, defining the subtropical climate region as the region with monthly mean temperature $10^{\circ}C$ or higher during 8-12 months. By observed data, the subtropical climate region was only limited in Jeju-do and the farmost southern coastal area(Busan, Tongyeong, Geoje, Yeosu, Wando, Mokpo) of South Korea. The future projected climate region for the period of 2071-2100 included have shown that subtropical climate region extended to most of stations except for the ares of Taebaeksan and Sobaeksan Mountains.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2012

In order to use as basic data of adaptation, this study focused on a 'Water management vulnerability estimation' in Korea. Vulnerability is estimated dividing into flood mitigation and water resource management. Temporal resolution is 2000 year and the future 2020 year, 2050 year, 2100 year via A1B scenario. Time series data was normalized. Then weight that is gotten through delphi investigation was multiplied. Vulnerability is calculated through this process. In flood mitigation vulnerability, it was estimated to adaptation ability affect relatively biggest influence. In future, some area of Gangwon-do was analyzed that the flood mitigation vulnerability increases. In water resource management, it was estimated to climate exposure affect relatively biggest influence. At 2020 yr, there is a trend toward increased in the Chungcheongbuk-do and DaeJeon, Daegu, some area of Gyeongsangnamdo. Because this study evaluate relative vulnerability of whole country and analyzed spatial distribution, when local government establishes climate change adaptation details enforcement countermeasure, this study can give help to grasp whether should invest more in some field.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.4
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• pp.101-112
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• 2015

This study was conducted to predict greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from a radish field by future climate change scenario. A radish field located at Chuncheon-si Gangwon-do was selected, and A1B Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental panel on climate change) was applied to simulate the future potential climate change. Rainfall and temperature data were predicted to be increased by 8.4 % and 1.9 % in 2040s, 35.9 % and 27.0 % in 2060s, 19.2 % and 30.8 % in 2090s, respectively, compared to the climate data in 2010s. The $N_2O$, $CO_2$, and $CH_4$ emission were estimated to be increased by 0.4 up to 2.4 kg/ha/yr, by 500.5 up to 734.5 kg/ha/year, and by 29.4 up to 160.4 kg/ha/yr, which were resulted from the global warming potential (GWP) of 14.5~21.7 $CO_2$/ha/year caused by the amount changes of rainfall, temperature, manure amendment, and fertilizer applied in fields. One distinct feature of the study result was that the changes of $N_2O-N$, $CH_4-C$ and $CO_2-C$ with future potential climate change simulation were varied by soil texture. Therefore it was concluded that there is a need to apply appropriate amount of manure amendment needs and to consider soil texture as well.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.62-70
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• 2012

Rainfall, on Jeju Island varies regionally in relation to Mt. Halla with higher rainfall within southern area and lower in western area, and its variability is expected to expand according to the climate change scenario. Non-parametric trend analysis for rainfall, using both historic (1971-2010) and simulated (2011-2100) data assuming the A1B emissions scenario, shows regionally increasing trends with time. In perspective of agricultural land use, area for market garden including various crop types with high water demand is increasing over the Island, especially in the western area with lower rainfall compared to southern area. On the other hand, area for fruit including mandarin and kiwi with low water demand is widely distributed over southern and northern part having higher rainfall. These regional disparity of water demand/supply may be more affected by extreme events such as drought and heavy rainfall that has not yet been considered. Therefore, it is necessary to make policies for water resource management considering both demand and supply in different regions with climate change impacts over Jeju Island.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2011.11a
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• pp.16-18
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• 2011

Evaluation of climate change on the rice productivity was conducted using crop growth simulation model, where Odae, Hwaseong, Ilpum were used as a representative cultivar of early, medium, and medium-late rice maturity type, respectively, and climate change scenario 'A1B' was applied to weather data for future climate change at 57sites. When cropping season was fixed, rice yield decreased by 4~35% as climate change which was caused by poor filled grain ratio with high temperature and low irradiation during grain-filling. When cropping season was changed, rice yield decreased by only 0~5% as climate change which was caused poor filled grain ratio with low irradiation during grain-filling period. However, this irradiation decline was less than when cropping season was fixed. Therefore, we need to develop rice cultivars resistant to low irradiation which can maintain high filled grain ratio under poor irradiation condition, and late maturity rice cultivars whose growing period is longer than the present medium-late maturity type.