• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.155-165
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• 2014

In this study, using a complex of physical, chemical, and biological evaluation factors, the ecological vulnerability to climate change were evaluated at each river in the Nakdong river basin. First, runoff, sediment rate, and low flow discharge changes according to AIB climate change scenario using the SWAT model were simulated. Also, for the assessment of chemical and biological factors, 48 points that water quality monitoring sites and ecological health measurement points are matched with each other was selected. The water quality data of BOD and T-P and the biological data of IBI and KSI in each point were reflected in the assessment. Also, the future rise in water temperature of the rivers in Nakdong river basin was predicted, and the impact of water temperature rise on the fish habitat was evaluated. The top 10 most vulnerable points was presented through a summary of each evaluation factor. This study has a contribution to river restoration or management plan according to the characteristics of each river.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.31-41
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• 2011

This study was conducted to predict future land-cover changes under climate change scenarios and to cluster analysis of regional land-cover characteristics. To simulate the future land-cover according to climate change scenarios - A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation with socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Gyeonggi-do were selected as study areas. The simulation results from 2010 to 2040 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. All scenarios resulted in a gradual decrease in paddy area, while upland area continuously increased. A1B scenario showed the highest increase in built-up area, but all scenarios showed only slight changes in forest area. As a result of cluster analysis with the land-cover component scores, 31 si/gun in Gyeonggi-do were classified into three clusters. This approach is expected to be useful for evaluating and simulating land-use changes in relation to development constraints and scenarios. The results could be used as fundamental basis for providing policy direction by considering regional land-cover characteristics.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.711-716
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• 2012

Due to the climate change in South Korea the annual total precipitation will increase by 17 percent by 2100. Rainfall is concentrated during the summer in South Korea and the landslide of farmland by heavy rain is expected to increase. Because regional torrential rains accompanied by a storm continue to cause the damage in farmland urgent establishment of adaptation plant for minimizing the damage is in need. In this study we assessed vulnerability of landslide of farmland by heavy rain for local governments. Temporal resolution is 2000 year and the future 2020 year, 2050 year, 2100 year via A1B scenario. Vulnerability of local government were evaluated by three indices such as climate exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and each index is calculated by selected alternative variable. Collected data was normalized and then multiplied by weight value that was elicited in delphi investigation. Current vulnerability is concentrated in Jeju island and Gyeongsangnam-do, however, it is postulated that Kangwon-do will be vulnerable in the future. Through this study, local governments can use the data to establish adaptation plans for farmland landslide by climate change.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.160-174
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• 2014

The purpose of this paper is to develop a meso-scale grid-based continuous hydrological model and apply to assess the future watershed hydrology by climate change. The model divides the watershed into rectangular cells, and the cell profile is divided into three layered flow components: a surface layer, a subsurface unsaturated layer, and a saturated layer. Soil water balance is calculated for each grid cell of the watershed, and updated daily time step. Evapotranspiration(ET) is calculated by Penman-Monteith method and the surface and subsurface flow adopts lag coefficients for multiple days contribution and recession curve slope for stream discharge. The model was calibrated and verified using 9 years(2001-2009) dam inflow data of two watersheds(Chungju Dam and Soyanggang Dam) with 1km spatial resolution. The average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.57 and 0.71, and the average determination coefficient was 0.65 and 0.72 respectively. For the whole Han river basin, the model was applied to assess the future climate change impact on the river bsain. Five IPCC SRES A1B scenarios of CSIRO MK3, GFDL CM2_1, CONS ECHO-G, MRI CGCM2_3_2, UKMO HADGEMI) showed the results of 7.0%~27.1 increase of runoff and the increase of evapotranspiration with both integrated and distributed model outputs.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.65-74
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• 2016

This study mainly focuses on urban regeneration project as a countermeasure to resolve climate change issues by analyzing the carbon-reduction effect of Jeonju test-bed cases. First, an urban regeneration project is designed for city, Jeonju by analyzing its environmental problems and potential improvement. Then, carbon emission and reduction amounts are evaluated for different businesses and scenarios. Carbon emission sources are classified according to a standard suggested by IPCC, and the emissions are calculated by various standard methods. The result shows that carbon emission amount in Jeonju test-bed is 102,149 tCO2eq. The fact that 70% of the emission from energy sector originates from buildings implies that urban regeneration projects can concentrate on building portions to effectively reduce carbon emission. It is also projected carbon emission will decrease by 3,826tCo2eq in 2020 compared to 2011, reduction mainly based on overall population and industry shrinkage. When urban regeneration projects are applied to 5 urban sectors (urban environment, land use, green transportation, low carbon energy, and green buildings) total of 10,628tCO2eq is reduced and 4,857tCO2 (=15.47%) when only applied to the green building sector. Moreover, different carbon reduction scenarios are set up to meet each goal of different sectors. The result shows that scenario A, B, and C each has 5%, 11%, and 15% of carbon reduction, respectively. It is recommended to apply scenario B to achieve 11% reduction goal in a long term. Therefore, this research can be a valuable guideline for planning future urban regeneration projects and relative policies by analyzing the present urban issues and suggesting improvement directions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.101 no.3
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• pp.509-516
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• 2012

In this research, it was intended to examine the vulnerability of Pinus rigida to climate changes, a major planting species in Korea. For this purpose, the distribution of Pinus rigida and its changes caused by climate changes were estimated based on the 'A1B' climate change scenario suggested by IPCC. Current distribution of Pinus rigida was analyzed by using the $4^{th}$Forest Type Map and its potential distribution in the recent year (2000), the near future (2050) and the further future (2100) were estimated by analyzing the optimized ranges of three climate indices - warmth index(WI), minimum temperature index of the coldest month (MTCI) and precipitation effectiveness index(PEI). The results showed that the estimated potential distribution of Pinus rigida declines to 56% in the near future(2050) and 15% in the further future (2100). This significant decline was found in most provinces in Korea. However, in Kangwon province where the average elevation is higher than other provinces, the area of potential distribution of Pinus rigida increases in the near future and the further future. Also the result indicated that the potential distribution of Pinus rigida migrates to higher elevation. The potential distributions estimated in this research have relatively high accuracy with consideration of classification accuracy (44.75%) and prediction probability (62.56%).

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.124-131
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• 2012

This study was carried out to evaluate a possible change in freeze risk for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach buds in three major peach growing areas under the future climate projected by RCP8.5 emission scenario. Mean values of the monthly temperature data for the present decade (2000s) and the future decades (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) were extracted for farm lands in Icheon, Chungju, and Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan region at 1km resolution and 30 sets of daily temperature data were generated randomly by a stochastic process for each decade. The daily data were used to calculate a thermal time-based dormancy depth index which is closely related to the cold tolerance of peach buds. Combined with daily minimum temperature, dormancy depth can be used to estimate the potential risk of freezing damage on peach buds. When the freeze risk was calculated daily for the winter period (from 1 November to 15 March) in the present decade, Icheon and Chungju regions had high values across the whole period, but Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan regions had low values from mid-December to the end of January. In the future decades, the frequency of freezing damage would be reduced in all 3 regions and the reduction rate could be as high as 75 to 90% by 2080's. However, the severe class risk (over 80% damage) will not disappear in the future and most occurrences will be limited to December to early January according to the calculation. This phenomenon might be explained by shortened cold hardiness period caused by winter warming as well as sudden cold waves resulting from the higher inter-annual climate variability projected by the RCP8.5 scenario.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.253-264
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• 2012

In the northwestern Pacific, spawning of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus, occurs at continental shelf and slope areas of 100-500 m, and the optimum temperature for the spawning and survival of paralarvae is assumed to be $18-23^{\circ}C$. To predict the spawning ground of Todarodes pacificus under future climate conditions, we simulated the present and future ocean circulations, using an East Asia regional ocean model (Modular Ocean Model, MOM version3), projected by two different global climate models (MPI_echam5, MIROC_hires), under an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Mean climate states for 1990-1999 and 2030-2039 from 20th and 21th Century Climate Change model simulation (from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) were used as surface conditions for simulations, and we examined changes in spawning ground between the 1990s and 2030s. The results revealed that the distribution of spawning ground in the 2030s in both climate models shifted northward in the East China Sea and East Sea, for both autumn and winter populations, compared to that of the 1990s. Also, the spawning area (with $1/6^{\circ}{\times}1/6^{\circ}$ grid) in the 2030s of the autumn and winter populations will decline by 11.6% (MPI_echam5) to 30.8% (MIROC_hires) and 3.0% (MPI_echam5) to 18.2% (MIROC_hires), respectively, from those of the 1990s.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.12
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• pp.1235-1247
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• 2013

This study is to evaluate the climate change impact on future storage behavior of Chungju dam($2,750{\times}10^6m^3$) and the regulation dam($30{\times}10^6m^3$) using SWAT(Soil Water Assessment Tool) model. Using 9 years data (2002~2010), the SWAT was calibrated and validated for streamflow at three locations with 0.73 average Nash-Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and for two reservoir water levels with 0.86 NSE respectively. For future evaluation, the HadCM3 of GCMs (General Circulation Models) data by scenarios of SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 and B1 of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted. The monthly temperature and precipitation data (2007~2099) were spatially corrected using 30 years (1977~2006, baseline period) of ground measured data through bias-correction, and temporally downscaled by Change Factor (CF) statistical method. For two periods; 2040s (2031~2050), 2080s (2071~2099), the future annual temperature were predicted to change $+0.9^{\circ}C$ in 2040s and $+4.0^{\circ}C$ in 2080s, and annual precipitation increased 9.6% in 2040s and 20.7% in 2080s respectively. The future watershed evapotranspiration increased up to 15.3% and the soil moisture decreased maximum 2.8% compared to baseline (2002~2010) condition. Under the future dam release condition of 9 years average (2002~2010) for each dam, the yearly dam inflow increased maximum 21.1% for most period except autumn. By the decrease of dam inflow in future autumn, the future dam storage could not recover to the full water level at the end of the year by the present dam release pattern. For the future flood and drought years, the temporal variation of dam storage became more unstable as it needs careful downward and upward management of dam storage respectively. Thus it is necessary to adjust the dam release pattern for climate change adaptation.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.107-121
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• 2011

To assess the impact of climate change on water quality in an impounded river basin, this study estimated future air temperature and rainfall in the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080 by statistically downscaling the simulation results from two GCM models combined with two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). Both scenarios were selected from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) suggested by IPCC. The A2 scenario represents an extreme condition whereas the B1 scenario represents a clean and energy efficient condition which is similar to that of study basin. With the results of estimated climate factors and land use data, the discharge and the concentrations of BOD, TN and TP in the Andong dam basins were simulated using the SWAT model. The change in BOD concentration for the B1 emission scenario was greater than the A2 scenario in the annual increase range and the pollution level. The concentration of TN was decreased during March? June which is drought period and increased again afterward. In contrast to TN, the concentration of TP was generally decreased. The change in TP concentration was greater for the B1 scenario than the A2 scenario.