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Prioritizing Management Ranking for Hazardous Chemicals Reflecting Aggregate Exposure (통합노출을 고려한 유해물질 관리의 우선순위 선정)

  • Jeong, Ji-Yoon;Jung, Yoo-Kyung;Hwang, Myung-Sil;Jung, Ki-Kyung;Yoon, Hae-Jung
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.349-355
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we configured a system which ranks hazardous chemicals to determine their management priorities based on experts' opinions and the existing CRS (chemical ranking and scoring). Aggregate exposure of food, health functional food, oriental/herbal medicine and cosmetics have been taken into account to determine management priority. In this study, 25 hazardous chemicals were selected, such as cadmium, lead, mercury, and arsenic, etc. These 25 materials were ranked according to their 1) risk (exposure or hazard) indexes, 2) exposure source-based weight, and 3) public interests, which were also formed based on the existing priority ranking system. Cadmium was scored the highest (178.5) and bisphenol A the lowest (56.8). Ten materials -- cadmium, lead, mercury, arsenic, tar, acrylamide, benzopyrene, aluminium, benzene, and PAHs -- scored higher than 100. Eight materials -- aflatoxin, manganese, phthalate, chromium, nitrate/nitrite, ethylcarbamate, formaldehyde, and copper -- recorded scores in the range from 70 to 100. Also evaluated as potential risks were 7 materials; sulfur dioxide, ochratoxin, dioxins, PCBs, fumonisin, methyl mercury, and bisphenol A, and these materials were scored above 50. Then we compared risk index and correlation coefficient of total scores to confirm the validity of the total scores; we analyzed correlation coefficient of parameter and indicator. We discovered that the total score and weight, which has incorporated public interests, were high and statistically significant. In conclusion, the result of this study contributes to strengthening risk assessment and risk management of hazardous chemicals.

Risk Assessment of As, Cd, Cu and Pb in Different Rice Varieties Grown on the Contaminated Paddy Soil (중금속 오염 논토양에서 재배된 벼 품종간 위해성평가 비교)

  • Kim, Won-Il;Kim, Jin-Kyoung;Yoo, Ji-Hyock;Paik, Min-Kyoung;Park, Sang-Won;Kwon, Oh-Kyung;Hong, Moo-Ki;Yang, Jay-E;Kim, Jeong-Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.53-57
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    • 2009
  • Heavy metal pollution may be one of the most serious challenges confront crop production and human health. Therefore, the selection of heavy metal tolerance cultivars which adapted to the contaminated fields will introduced a suitable solution for management this critical environmental risk. The objectives of this research is to assess human health risk using geochemical analyses and exposure assessment of heavy metals in rice cultivars. Risk for inhabitants in the closed mine area was comparatively assessed for As, Cd, Cu and Pb in 10 rice varieties as a major exposure pathway. The average daily dose (ADD) of each heavy metal was estimated by analyzing the exposure pathways to rice and soil. For the non-carcinogenic risk characterization, Hazard Quotient (HQ) and Hazard Index (HI) were calculated using toxicity indices provided by US-EPA IRIS. The different rice varieties revealed a wide range of HI values from 23.6 to 34.3, indicating that all rice varieties have a high potential toxic risk. The DA rice variety showed the lowest HI value while the TB rice variety the highest. The probabilities of cancer risk for As via rice consumption were varied with rice varieties ranging from 2.0E-03 to 3.5E-03 which exceeded the regulatory acceptable risk of 1 in 10,000 set by US-EPA. The DA rice variety also showed the lowest value while the TB rice variety gave the highest value. Our results indicate that risk assessment can be contribute to screen the pollution safe rice cultivars in paddy fields affected by the mining activity.

Feasibility of Tax Increase in Korean Welfare State via Estimation of Optimal Tax burden Ratio (적정조세부담률 추정을 통한 한국 복지국가 증세가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, SeongWook
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.77-115
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to present empirical evidence for discussion of financing social welfare via estimating optimal tax burden in the main member countries of the OECD by using Hausman-Taylor method considering endogeneity of explanatory variables. Also, the author produced an international tax comparison index reflecting theoretical hypotheses on revenue-expenditure nexus within a model to compare real tax burden by countries and to examine feasibility of tax increase in Korea. As a result of the analysis, the higher the level of tax burden was, the higher the level of welfare expenditure was, indicating the connection between high burden and high welfare from the aspect of scale. The results also indicated that the subject countries recently entered into the state of low tax burden. Meanwhile, Korea had maintained low burden until the late 1990s but the tax burden soared up since the financial crisis related to the IMF. However, due to the impact of foreign economy and the tax reduction policy, it reentered into the low-burden state after 2009. On the other hand, the degree of social welfare expenditure's reducing tax burden has been gradually enhanced since the crisis. In this context, the current optimal tax burden ratio of Korea as of 2010 may be 25.8%~26.5% of GDP based on input of welfare expenditure variables, a percent that Korea was investigated to be a 'high tax burden-low ITC' country whose tax increase of 0.7~1.4%p may be feasible and that the success of tax system reform for tax increase might be higher probability when compare to others. However, measures of increasing social security contributions and consumption tax were analyzed to be improper from the aspect of managing finance when compared to increase in other tax items, considering the relatively higher ITC. Tax increase is not necessarily required though there may be room for tax increase; the optimal tax burden ratio can be understood as the level that may be achieved on average when compared to other nations, not as the "proper" level. Thus, discussion of tax increase should be accompanied with comprehensive understanding of models of economic developmental difference from nations and institutional & historical attributes included in specific tax mix.

Factor Analysis Affecting on Chartering Decision-making in the Dry Bulk Shipping Market (부정기 건화물선 시장에서 용선 의사결정에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.151-163
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    • 2024
  • This study sought to confirm the impact of analytical methods and behavioral economic theory factors on decision-making when making chartering decisions in the dry bulk shipping market. This study on chartering decision-making model was began to verify why shipping companies do not make rational decision-making and behavior based on analytical methods such as freight prediction and process of alternative selection in the same market situation. To understand the chartering decision-making model, it is necessary to study the impact of behavioral economic theory such as heuristics, loss aversion, and herding behavior on chartering decision-making. Through AHP analysis, the importance of the method factors relied upon in chartering decision-making. The dependence of the top factors in chartering decision-making was in the following order: market factors, heuristics, internal factors, herding behavior, and loss aversion. Market factors, heuristics, and internal factors. As for detailed factors, spot freight index and empirical intuition were confirmed as the most important factors relied on when making decisions. It was confirmed that empirical intuition is more important than internal analysis, which is an analytical method. This study can be said to be meaningful in that it academically researched and proved the bounded rationality of humans, which cannot be fully rational, and sometimes relies on experience or psychological tendencies, by applying it to the chartering decision-making model in the dry bulk shipping market. It also suggests that in the dry bulk shipping market, which is uncertain and has a high risk of loss due to decision-making, the experience and insight of decision makers have a very important impact on the performance and business profits of the operation part of shipping companies. Even though chartering are a decision-making field that requires judgment and intuition based on heuristics, decision-makers need to be aware of this decision-making model in order to reduce repeated mistakes of deciding contrary to market situation. It also suggests that there is a need to internally research analytical methods and procedures that can complement heuristics such as empirical intuition.

Chromaticity and Brown Pigment Patterns of Soy Sauce and UHYUKJANG, Korean Traditional Fermented Soy Sauce (간장과 어육장의 색도 및 갈색색소 패턴)

  • Kim, Ji-Sang;Moon, Gap-Soon;Lee, Young-Soon
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.22 no.5 s.95
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    • pp.642-649
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    • 2006
  • The browning of soy sauce is caused by the reaction of amino-carbonyl between amino-compounds and reducing sugar. Only a few studies have investigated the formation of melanoidins in UHYUKJANG. The objectives of this study were to analyze the brown pigment of UHYUKJANG and to investigate the characteristics of UHYUKJANG in comparison with soy sauce and model melanoidins. The samples were ripened for 0, 60, 120, 180, 240, 300 and 360 days at 4$^{\circ}C$ and 20$^{\circ}C$. The pH, absorbance at 420 nm absorbance ratio of 400 to 500 nm and UV-VIS spectra as an index of color intensity were measured. Additionally, L, a and b values of the samples and the amount of 3-Deoxyglucosone(3DG) in the samples were measured. The pH of both soy sauce (from 6.26 to 5.52) and UHYUKJANG (from 6.13 to 5.11) rapidly decreased during the first 60 days of aging and was also affected by storage temperature. The absorbance of samples at 420 nm increased during the aging process, reaching its maximum after 180 days, regardless of sample and temperature. On the other hand, the intensity of brown color in the samples increased with increasing aging period according to the results of absorbance ratio (soy sauce: 1.37 to 5.29, UHYUKJANG: 1.37 to 5.02). The L value of soy sauce increased during the aging process and was maximized after 240 days at 4$^{\circ}C$ and 180 days at 20$^{\circ}C$, but decreased thereafter. There was no significant difference in L value of UHYUKJANG, regardless of aging period and temperature. On the other hand, the b value did not reveal any significant change during aging, but the a value increased until 120 days of aging in the other samples except for UHYUKJANG at 20$^{\circ}C$. The average amount of 3DG separated from soy sauce was 5.65 mg%, and from UHYUKJANG was 3.74 mg%. These results indicated that the browning of UHYUKJANG was also caused by melanoidins produced by the reaction of amino-carbonyl during the fermentation process.

Quality characteristics and sensory evaluation of Fuji apple based on commodity price (상품 가격에 따른 사과의 품질 특성 및 관능 평가)

  • Ku, Kyung Hyung;Choi, Eun Jeong;Kim, Sang-Seop;Jeong, Moon Cheol
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.1065-1073
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    • 2016
  • This study investigated the sensory attributes and quality characteristics of Fuji apples based on market commodity price to provide data for quality index of Fuji apples. Samples were purchased from the Garak market (Seoul Agro-Fisheries & Food Corporation) and divided into four groups depending on the price such as group A, B, C, D. There were no significant differences in their volume and weight among groups. In the soluble solid content and total free sugar, A and B group (high price) showed higher content than those of C and D (low price) group. And also, the A group and B, C, D group showed 386.29 mg% and 320.09~359.28 mg% in the total organic acid content, respectively. As an sensory evaluation results, A group and B group were evaluated higher score than those of C and D group in the uniformity of red color and glossiness of skin and unique apple sensory attributes using quantitative descriptive analysis. Consumer test showed similar to quantitative descriptive analysis results in the various sensory attributes. In the analysis results between quality characteristics and sensory attributes of Fuji apples, total acceptability was correlated positively with titratable acidity (r=0.58), soluble solid (r=0.89), soluble solid content/titratable acidity ratio (r=0.42), total free sugar (r=0.36) and total organic acid (r=0.38). Based on principal component analysis of apple's quality characteristics, apples were primary separated along the first principal component (pH, acidity, soluble solid content, total free sugar, organic acid), which accounted for 66.01% of total variance. In addition, principal component analysis of sensory evaluation revealed a total variance for the quantitative descriptive of 55. 65% and a total variance for the consumer test of 55.84%.

Bankruptcy Type Prediction Using A Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks Model (하이브리드 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 부도 유형 예측)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Kim, Hyun-jung;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.79-99
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    • 2015
  • The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Evaluation of Sodium Intake and Relationship between Sodium Intake and the Bone Mineral Density of Female University Students (중부 지역 여대생에서 음식섭취빈도조사지를 이용한 나트륨 섭취량 평가 및 나트륨 섭취와 골밀도와의 관련성 조사)

  • Bae, Yun-Jung;Yeon, Jee-Young
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.625-636
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between bone health and sodium intake in female university students using a dish frequency questionnaire (DFQ 125), anthropometric checkups, food records for 3 days, and ultrasound measurement of calcaneus bone mineral density. Subjects were divided into two groups: normal (n=196) and osteopenia (n=52). There were no significant differences in age or height between the two groups. The average weight, body mass index, and body fat in the normal group were significantly higher than in the osteopenia group. The sodium intake of DFQ was positively correlated with the sodium intake of 3 days of dietary records (p=0.0003). There were no significant differences in the sodium intake between the two groups from DFQ. The dishes were ranked by sodium intake: kimchies were 17.68%, noodles and mandu were 16.36%, stews were 13.69%, main dishes such as meat, egg, and beans were 11.47%, and fish and shellfish were 11.07%. The frequency of eating noodles and mandu (p=0.0116), stews (p=0.0008), kimchies (p=0.0482), fish and shellfish (p=0.0362), vegetables (p=0.0064) and seasoning (p=0.0347) were negatively associated with bone mineral density. Bone health was not significantly different with increasing quartiles of sodium intake. As excessive sodium intakes may indirectly affect bone mineral density, these results suggest that to prevent osteoporosis, university students needed to be more educated about diets containing less sodium through nutrition education programs.

Short-Term Efficacy of Steroid and Immunosuppressive Drugs in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis and Pre-treatment Factors Associated with Favorable Response (특발성폐섬유화증에서 스테로이드와 면역억제제의 단기 치료효과 및 치료반응 예측인자)

  • Kang, Kyeong-Woo;Park, Sang-Joon;Koh, Young-Min;Lee, Sang-Pyo;Suh, Gee-Young;Chung, Man-Pyo;Han, Jung-Ho;Kim, Ho-Joong;Kwon, O-Jung;Lee, Kyung-Soo;Rhee, Chong-H.
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.685-696
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    • 1999
  • Background : Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a diffuse inflammatory and fibrosing process that occurs within the interstitium and alveolus of the lung with invariably poor prognosis. The major problem in management of IPF results from the variable rate of disease progression and the difficulties in predicting the response to therapy. The purpose of this retrospective study was to evaluate the short-term efficacy of steroid and immunosuppressive therapy for IPF and to identify the pre-treatment determinants of favorable response. Method : Twenty patients of IPF were included. Diagnosis of IPF was proven by thoracoscopic lung biopsy and they were presumed to have active progressive disease. The baseline evaluation in these patients included clinical history, pulmonary function test, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), and chest high resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Fourteen patients received oral prednisolone treatment with initial dose of 1mg/kg/day for 8 to 12 weeks and then tapering to low-dose prednisolone (0.25mg/kg/day). Six patients who previously had experienced significant side effects to steroid received 2mg/kg/day of oral cyclophosphamide with or without low-dose prednisolone. Follow-up evaluation was performed after 6 months of therapy. If patients met more than one of followings, they were considered to be responders : (1) improvement of more than one grade in dyspnea index, (2) improvement in FVC or TLC more than 10% or improvement in DLco more than 20% (3) decreased extent of disease in chest HRCT findings. Result : One patient died of extrapulmonary cause after 3 month of therapy, and another patient gave up any further medical therapy due to side effect of steroid. Eventually medical records of 18 patients were analyzed. Nine of 18 patients were classified into responders and the other nine patients into nonresponders. The histopathologic diagnosis of the responders were all nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) and that of nonresponders were all usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) (p<0.001). The other significant differences between the two groups were female predominance (p<0.01), smoking history (p<0.001), severe grade of dyspnea (p<0.05), lymphocytosis in BAL fluid ($23.8{\pm}16.3%$ vs $7.8{\pm}3.6%$, p<0.05), and less honeycombing in chest HRCT findings (0% vs $9.2{\pm}2.3%$, p<0.001). Conclusion : Our results suggest that patients with histopathologic diagnosis of NSIP or lymphocytosis in BAL fluid are more likely to respond to steroid or immunosuppressive therapy. Clinical results in large numbers of IPF patients will be required to identify the independent variables.

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