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VAR 모형을 이용한 주가, 금리, 물가, 주택가격의 관계에 대한 실증연구 (An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Stock Price, Interest Rate, Price Index and Housing Price using VAR Model)

  • 김재경
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제11권10호
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study analyzes the relationship and dynamic interactions between stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using Korean monthly data from 2000 to 2013, based on a VAR model. This study also examines Granger causal relationships among these variables in order to determine whether the time series of one is useful in forecasting another, or to infer certain types of causal dependency between stochastic variables. Research design, data, and methodology - We used Korean monthly data for all variables from 2000: M1 to 2013: M3. First, we checked the correlations among different variables. Second, we conducted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the co-integration test using the VAR model. Third, we employed Granger Causality tests to quantify the causal effect from time series observations. Fourth, we used the impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the VAR model to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. Results - First, stock price Granger affects interest rate and all housing price indices. Price index Granger, in turn, affects the stock price and six metropolitan housing price indices. However, none of the Granger variables affect the price index. Therefore, it is the stock markets (and not the housing market) that affects the housing prices. Second, the impulse response tests show that maximum influence on stock price is its own, and though it is influenced a little by interest rate, price index affects it negatively. One standard deviation (S.D.) shock to stock price increases the housing price by 0.08 units after two months, whereas an impulse shock to the interest rate negatively impacts the housing price. Third, the variance decomposition results report that the shock to the stock price accounts for 96% of the variation in the stock price, and the shock to the price index accounts for 2.8% after two periods. In contrast, the shock to the interest rate accounts for 80% of the variation in the interest rate after ten periods; the shock to the stock price accounts for 19% of the variation; however, shock to the price index does not affect the interest rate. The housing price index in 10 periods is explained up to 96.7% by itself, 2.62% by stock price, 0.68% by price index, and 0.04% by interest rate. Therefore, the housing market is explained most by its own variation, whereas the interest rate has little impact on housing price. Conclusions - The results of the study elucidate the relationship and dynamic interactions among stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using VAR model. This study could help form the basis for more appropriate economic policies in the future. As the housing market is very important in Korean economy, any changes in house price affect the other markets, thereby resulting in a shock to the entire economy. Therefore, the analysis on the dynamic relationships between the housing market and economic variables will help with the decision making regarding the housing market policy.

2009년 국민건강영양조사에 근거한 Significant Caries(SiC) Index (Significant Caries(SiC) Index Based on 2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey)

  • 한지형;안은숙
    • 치위생과학회지
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.229-234
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구는 2009 국민건강영양조사자료를 근거로 6세 이상 인구의 DMFT index(9,271명)를 구하고 그 중 상위 1/3인 고위험군을 분류하여 SiC index(2,517명)를 산출하였다. 이에 치아우식증 고위험군의 존재를 확인하고 고위험군에 대한 예방전략의 필요성을 강조하고자 하였다. 통계 분석은 STATA 11.0 프로그램을 이용하여 t-test 분석을 하였다. 1. DMFT index의 연구대상자는 남자가 45.0%(4,174명), 여자가 55.0%(5,097명)이었으며, SiC index 대상자를 산출한 결과 전체 2,517명이었으며, 남자는 36.3%(914명), 여자는 63.7%(1,603명)로 SiC index에서 여자가 더 많았다. 2. DMFT index와 SiC index의 평균을 보면 연령이 증가할수록 두 집단 간 평균의 차이가 컸으며, 특히 13, 14세는 평균 4 이상, 15세 이상부터는 평균 2배 이상의 차이를 보였다. 3. 성별에 따라 DMFT index를 비교한 결과 14세부터 남녀 간에 통계적으로 유의하였으나 결과는 모든 연령에서 여자가 남자보다 높게 나타났다. SiC index는 성별에 따른 통계적 유의성이 없었으며, 9세와 14세에서 약 1개 여자가 더 많게 나타났다. 4. 지역별 DMFT index를 비교한 결과 60대와 70세 이상에서 도시보다 전원지역이 더 높았다. SiC index는 60대에서 도시가 15.49, 전원지역이 17.04로 약 1.5개 정도 전원지역이 높았다. 이상의 결과를 볼 때 DMFT index는 연령이 증가할수록 성별의 차이를 보였으나 SiC index는 성별, 지역별 큰 차이를 보이지 않았다. 고위험군은 성별과 지역별 차이 없이 포괄적이고 집중적인 예방관리가 필요하며, 고위험군의 구강건강증진을 위한 구강보건정책이 수립되어야 한다.

제 2형 당뇨 환자의 저혈당지수 영양교육이 혈당관리에 미치는 영향 (Effects of Low Glycemic Index Nutrition Education on the Blood Glucose Control in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus)

  • 김미자;권순자;이선영
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • 제43권1호
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    • pp.46-56
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    • 2010
  • This study was intended to assess the effects of low glycemic index (LGI) nutrition education on dietary management and glycemic control of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The subjects were 48 sex-matched patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, aged $66.5\;{\pm}\;6.2$ years, visiting a public health center. They were divided into two groups: the control group (males 10, females 14) and the educated group (males 10, females 14). The educated group was provided with a LGI nutrition education program for 7 weeks. The control group was educated only one time for general diabetic education. Anthropometric indices, knowledge and perception of efficacy of low glycemic index carbohydrates, dietary glycemic index (DGI) and glycemic load (DGL), fasting blood glucose, and HbA1c were assessed. In the educated group body weight, body mass index and systolic blood pressure (from $138.0\;{\pm}\;18.9\;mmHg$ to $130.6\;{\pm}\;15.0\;mmHg$) were significantly reduced after the nutrition education (p < 0.05). The scores of knowledge and perception of efficacy of low glycemic index carbohydrates increased significantly in the educated group. Dietary glycemic index and glycemic load of the educated group decreased significantly from $103.4\;{\pm}\;67.6$ to $45.4\;{\pm}\;27.1$ (p < 0.001), and from $173.3\;{\pm}\;135.9$ to $66.8\;{\pm}\;50.4$ (p < 0.001), respectively. Also fasting blood glucose and HbA1c levels of the educated group significantly decreased from $124.5\;{\pm}\;28.8\;mg/dL$ to $96.7\;{\pm}\;21.6\;mg/dL$ (p < 0.001) and from $7.1\;{\pm}\;1.3%$ to $6.4\;{\pm}\;1.2%$ (p < 0.05), respectively. The score of knowledge and perception of efficacy of low glycemic index significantly correlated with fasting blood glucose and HbA1c levels negatively. DGI, DGL and duration of diabetes significantly correlated with HbA1c level positively. From stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, DGI, DGL and the duration of diabetes were extracted as factors influencing HbA1c level of the subjects. The results of this study suggest that low glycemic index nutrition education programs is an effective intervention measure for the glycemic control in type 2 diabetic patients.

Comparing Chewable and Manual Toothbrushes for Reducing Dental Plaque: A Pilot Study

  • Jeong, Moon-Jin;Shin, Hye-Sun;Jeong, Soon-Jeong;Lim, Do-Seon
    • 치위생과학회지
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.267-274
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    • 2017
  • This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of chewable toothbrush and manual toothbrush and provide basic data for recommendation of the chewable toothbrush in specific groups and situations. A total of 20 subjects participated in this study (rolling method, 10; non-rolling method, 10). After professional prophylaxis, participants used the manual toothbrush to brush their teeth for 3 minutes. After a 7-day wash-out period, participants used the chewable toothbrush according to the manufacturer's instructions. Pre- and post-plaque indexing of the teeth was performed. The dental plaque index was assessed using the Turesky Modification of the Quigley-Hein Plaque Index (TMQHPI) for amount of plaque and Silness-Loe Plaque Index (SLPI) for plaque thickness. The difference between pre- and post-dental plaque index was analyzed using a paired t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The Mann-Whitney U test was also used to compare the dental plaque index reduction rates. The dental plaque index differed significantly between the chewable toothbrush and the manual toothbrush. The TMQHPI reduction rate was significantly different between the rolling and non-rolling method groups for the manual toothbrush but not the chewable toothbrush. The difference in SLPI reduction rate between the rolling and non-rolling method groups was significant for the manual toothbrush but not for the chewable toothbrush. Differences in the dental plaque index reduction rates between the chewable and manual toothbrushes were not significant in the non-rolling method group. The results of this study showed higher reduction rates in dental plaque with manual toothbrush use than with chewable toothbrush use. However, the non-rolling method group did not show statistically significant differences according to toothbrush type. The present study showed that a chewable toothbrush can be an alternative to a manual toothbrush for individuals who have difficulty using the generally recommended rolling method.

PARK Index and S-score Can Be Good Quality Indicators for the Preventable Mortality in a Single Trauma Center

  • Park, Chan Yong;Lee, Kyung Hag;Lee, Na Yun;Kim, Su Ji;Cho, Hyun Min;Lee, Chan Kyu
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • 제30권4호
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    • pp.126-130
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Preventable Trauma Death Rate (PTDR) using Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) has been most widely used as a quality indicator in South Korea. However, this method has a small number of deaths corresponding to the denominator. Therefore, it is difficult to check the change of quality improvement for annual mortality, and there is a disadvantage that variation is severe. Therefore, we attempted to improve the quality of the mortality evaluation by reducing the variation by applying the PARK Index (preventable major trauma death rate, PMTDR) which can increase the number of denominator significantly. And the Save score (S-score) was also examined as another quality indicator. Methods: In the PARK Index, the denominator is number of all patients who have survival probability (Ps) larger than 0.25. Numerator is the number of deaths among these. The PARK Index includes only patients with ISS >15. The S-score is calculated in the same way as the W-score, but the S-score includes only patients with ISS >15, which is a difference from the W-score. Results: PARK Index decreased annually and was 12.9 (37/287) in 2014, 9.6 (33/343) in 2015, and 7.3 (52/709) in 2016. S-score increased annually and was -0.29 in 2014, 4.21 in 2015, and 8.75 in 2016. Conclusions: PARK Index and S-score improved annually. This shows that both quality indicators are improving year by year. PARK Index (PMTDR) has 9.5-fold increase in denominator overall compared to PTDR by TRISS. The S-score used only ISS >15 patients as a denominator. Therefore, there is an advantage that the numerical value change is larger than the W-score. In addition, S-score is not affected by the ratio of major trauma patients to minor trauma patients.

Geometric Sensitivity Index for the GNSS Using Inner Products of Line of Sight Vectors

  • Won, Dae Hee;Ahn, Jongsun;Sung, Sangkyung;Lee, Chulsoo;Bu, Sungchun;Jang, Jeagyu;Lee, Young Jae
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.437-444
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    • 2015
  • Satellite selection and exclusion techniques have been applied to the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) with the aim of achieving a balance between navigational performance and computational efficiency. Conventional approaches to satellite selection based on the best dilution of precision (DOP) are excessively computational and complicated. This paper proposes a new method that applies a geometric sensitivity index of individual GNSS satellites. The sensitivity index is derived using the inner product of the line of sight (LOS) vector of each satellite. First, the LOS vector is computed, which accounts for the geometry between the satellite and user positions. Second, the inner product of each pair of LOS vectors is calculated, which indicates the proximities of the satellites to one another. The proximity can be determined according to the sensitivity of each satellite. A post-processing test was conducted to verify the reliability of the proposed method. The proposed index and the results of a conventional approach that measures the dilution of precision (DOP) were compared. The test results demonstrate that the proposed index produces results that are within 96% of those of the conventional approach and reduces the computational burden. This index can be utilized to estimate the sensitivity of individual satellites, obtaining a navigation solution. Therefore, the proposed index applies to satellite selection and exclusion as well as to the sensitivity analyses of multiple GNSS applications.

Increased Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Obese Female University Students with Binge Eating Episodes

  • Yim, Kyeong-Sook;Lee, Tae-Young
    • Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.33-38
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    • 1999
  • Since binge eating is known to be related to increased risk of body weight fluctuations, it may be associated with increased health risks. This study was conducted to investigate the risks of binge eating on the cardiovascular system of female university students in Korea. Sixty-five female university students who were interested in a weight control program were recruited from a university campus. After personal interviews were conducted using a semi-structured questionnaire, 36 individuals were classified as binge eaters and 29 as non-binge eaters according to modified criteria of the proposed DSM-IV by the American Psychiatric Association(APA). All subjects participate in anthropometric and clinical measurements to evaluate the level of obesity and cardiovascular risks. Binge eating subjects showed no significant differences in obesity index compared to non-binge eating subjects. However, they had a higher level of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and a higher atherogenic index. They also showed close correlations with general obesity and cardiovascular risk factors. Body mass index(BMI) was the main explanatory index related to cardiovascular risk factors according to the stepwise regression analysis. Furthermore, obese binge subjects had higher levels than non-obese binge subjects or non-binge subjects for total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, triacylglycerols, atherogenic index, and systolic blood pressure. The findings strongly suggest that obese young women having binge eating episodes might display a greater risk for cardiovascular disease tan that shown for obese non-binge eating women.

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한국인 두부, 안면과 상악치궁의 크기 및 형태에 관한 비교 연구 (A STUDY ON THE CORELATIVITY BETWEEN THE HEAD AND FACE AND THE MAXILLARY ARCH IN KOREAN)

  • 이수룡;유영규
    • 대한치과교정학회지
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 1983
  • the author studied the corelativity between the head and face and the maxillary arch in Korean. This study was undertaker in 336 persons at age from 9 to 19 years who had normal occlusion by means of angle's classification. The following results were obtained. 1. The corelative coefficient between the Height of Head and Face (H.H.F.) and the Arch Length (A.L.) was 0.203-0.543, 2. The corelative coefficient between the Bizygomatic width (Z.W.) and the Bicanine width (C-C) was 0.203-0.543. 3. The corelative coefficient between the Bizygomatic width (Z.W.) and the Bimolar width (M-M) was 0.206-0.600. 4. The corelative coefficient between the Face shape (Index a) and Maxillaxy arch shape (In-dex c) was 0.232-0.404. 5. The corelative coefficient between the Face shape (Index a) and Maxillary arch shape (Index d) was 0.221-0.401. 6. There was no corelativity between the Anterior-posterior width of head (A.P.W.) and Arch Length A.L.), Head shape (Index b) and Maxillary arch shape (Index c, Index d).

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Comparison of OECD Nations through a Comprehensive Evaluation Index for Low-Carbon Green Growth

  • Yoo, Eui Sun;Park, Sung Hyun;Lee, Min Hyung
    • STI Policy Review
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    • 제1권2호
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    • pp.51-68
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    • 2010
  • This paper compares OECD nations by developing a comprehensive evaluation index that examines the efforts and achievements of countries toward Low-Carbon Green Growth. The input-process-output of a Low-Carbon Society system is in dynamic competition with that of a High-Carbon Society system. The model used in this study of the comprehensive evaluation index for Low-Carbon Green Growth was comprised of Large indices such as Input, Process, and Output. The Input and Output consisted of 'Social-economic' and 'Physical-ecological' Middle indices while the Process was made up of 'Stimulation mechanisms' and 'Participation of stakeholders and Knowledge flow' Middle indices. In order to calculate the comprehensive evaluation index, our model gave a weight to each indicator/index and applied a weighted arithmetic mean. Korea ranked $15^{th}$ out of 30 OECD nations in the comprehensive evaluation that analyzed Input ($14^{th}$), Process ($18^{th}$), and Output ($17^{th}$). The top five nations were Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and France; while Japan was $8^{th}$ and the USA $26^{th}$.

Relative contribution of geomagnetic and CO2 effects to global temperature anomaly

  • Kim, Jinhyun;Moon, Yong-Jae
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제41권1호
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    • pp.79.3-80
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    • 2016
  • We have investigated the correlation analysis between global temperature anomaly and two main factors: geomagnetic activity (aa index) of Earth external factor and CO2 of Earth internal factor. For this, we used NOAA Global Surface Temperature anomaly (Ta) data from 1868 to 2015. The aa index indicates the geomagnetic activity measured at two anti-podal subauroral stations (Canberra Australia and Hartland England) and the CO2 data come from historical ice core records and NOAA/ESRL data. From the comparison between (Ta) and aa index, we found several interesting things, First, the linear correlation coefficient between two parameters increases until 1985 and then decreases rapidly. Second, the scattered plot between two parameters shows a boundary of the correlation tendency (positive and negative correlation) near 1985. A partial correlation of (Ta) and two main factors (aa index, CO2) also shows that the geomagnetic effect (aa index) is dominant until about 1985 and the CO2 effect becomes much more important after then. These results indicate that the CO2 effect become very an important factor since at least 1985. For a further analysis, we simply assume that Ta = Ta(aa)+Ta(CO2) and made a linear regression between (Ta) and aa index from 1868 to 2015. A linear model is then made from the linear regression between energy consumption (a proxy of CO2 effect) and Ta-Ta(aa) since 1985. Our results will be discussed in view of the prediction of global warming.

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