• Title/Summary/Keyword: 24 scenarios

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Assessment of Anti-Drought Capacity for Agricultural Reservoirs using RCP Scenarios (RCP 시나리오 기반 농업용 저수지의 내한능력 평가)

  • Park, Na-Young;Choi, Jin-Yong;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2013
  • Agriculture is affected directly by climate conditions and changes, and it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on agricultural reservoirs which are the main water resources for paddy fields in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the anti-drought capacity including water supply capability (WSC) and drought response ability (DRA) of agricultural reservoirs based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CanESM2 (The Second Generation Earth System Model) provided by CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis). The WSC and DRA were estimated using frequency analysis and runs theory. The six reservoirs (Yooshin, Nogok, Kumsung, Songgok, Gapyung, Seoma) were selected considering geographical characteristics and design criteria of reservoir capacity. In case of Seoma reservoir, more than 10 year drought return period (DRP), the variation of the WSC was estimated larger than the others. In case of Yooshin reservior (2~5 DRP) DRC was decreased in 2025s under RCP8.5. These results could be utilized for agricultural reservoirs management and future design criteria considering climate change impacts on paddy irrigation.

Scenario-Based Exposure Risk Assessment of Molinate in a Paddy Plot ; (2) Exposure Risk Assessment (시나리오별 논에서의 molinate 노출위험도 분석: (2) 노출위험도 평가)

  • Park, Ki-Jung;Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2008
  • Exposure risk assessment of pesticide molinate using the RICEWQ model in a rice paddy plot was performed to observe the effects of various water and pesticide management scenarios. Several scenarios were developed to represent the specific water and pesticide management practices of rice cultivation in Korea. The results of the scenario analysis using the RICEWQ model simulation from the previous studies were analysed. The molinate risk for aquatic organisms is evaluated by the ratio of the predicted environmental concentration(PEC) and the predicted no-effect concentration(PNEC). The results showed that the no-effect periods for aquatic organisms for the deep, shallow and very shallow irrigation conditions were 33.3, 28.9 and 25.6 DATs for the lable rate application and 36.4, 33.7 and 30.8 DATs for the double lable rate application, respectively. The higher application rate showed greater exposure risk to the aquatic organisms. Based on this study, the withholding period of molinate practiced in Korea, that is 3 to 4 DATs, must be much longer. The results of this study can be used for the non-point source pollution control and environmental policy making regarding pesticides.

Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions: An alternative approach to waste management for reducing the environmental impacts in Myanmar

  • Tun, Maw Maw;Juchelkova, Dagmar
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.618-629
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    • 2019
  • Along with growing population and economic development, increasing waste generation rates in developing countries have become a major issue related to the negative impacts of waste management on the environment. Currently, the business-as-usual waste management practices in Myanmar are largely affecting the environment and public health. Therefore, this study developed an alternative approach to waste management for reducing the environmental impacts in Myanmar by highlighting the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from business-as-usual practices and three proposed scenarios during 2018-2025. The calculation methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Institute for Global Environmental Strategies were used for estimating the GHG emissions from waste management. It was estimated that the current waste management sector generated approximately 2,000 gigagrams of CO2-eq per year in 2018, trending around 3,350 Gg of CO2-eq per year in 2025. It was also observed that out of the proposed scenarios, Scenario-2 significantly minimized the environmental impacts, with the lowest GHG emissions and highest waste resource recovery. Moreover, the GHG emissions from business-as-usual practices could be reduced by 50% by this scenario during 2018-2025. The target of the similar scenario could be achieved if the local government could efficiently implement waste management in the future.

A Mechanism for Conflict Detection and Resolution for Service Interaction : Toward IP-based Network Services (IP 기반 융합서비스를 위한 서비스 충돌 감지 및 해결에 대한 연구)

  • Oh, Joseph;Shin, Dong-Min
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.24-34
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    • 2010
  • In the telecommunication system which is based on the existing PSTN(public switched telephone network), feature interaction has been an important research issue in order to provide seamless services to users. Recently, rapid proliferation of IP-based network and the various types of IP media supply services, the feature interaction from the perspective of application services has become a significant aspect. This paper presents conflict detection and resolution algorithms for designing and operating a variety of services that are provided through IP-based network. The algorithms use explicit service interactions to detect conflicts between a new service and registered services. They then apply various rules to reduce search space in resolving conflicts. The algorithms are applied to a wide range of realistic service provision scenarios to validate that it can detect conflicts between services and resolve in accordance with different rule sets. By applying the algorithms to various scenarios, it is observed that the proposed algorithms can be effectively used in operating an IP-based services network.

Uncertainty Analysis in Hydrologic and Climate Change Impact Assessment in Streamflow of Upper Awash River Basin

  • Birhanu, Dereje;Kim, Hyeonjun;Jang, Cheolhee;Park, Sanghyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.327-327
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    • 2019
  • The study will quantify the total uncertainties in streamflow and precipitation projections for Upper Awash River Basin located in central Ethiopia. Three hydrological models (GR4J, CAT, and HBV) will be used to simulate the streamflow considering two emission scenarios, six high-resolution GCMs, and two downscaling methods. The readily available hydrometeorological data will be applied as an input to the three hydrological models and the potential evapotranspiration will be estimated using the Penman-Monteith Method. The SCE-UA algorithm implemented in PEST will be used to calibrate the three hydrological models. The total uncertainty including the incremental uncertainty at each stage (emission scenarios and model) will be presented after assessing a total of 24 (=$2{\times}6{\times}2$) high-resolution precipitation projections and 72 (=$2{\times}6{\times}2{\times}3$) streamflow projections for the study basin. Finally, the primary causes that generate uncertainties in future climate change impact assessments will be identified and a conclusion will be made based on the finding of the study.

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A Study on the Establishment of Bunkering Safety Zone for Hydrogen Propulsion Ships in Coastal Area (연근해 수소추진선박의 벙커링 안전구역 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Sungha Jeon;Sukyoung Jeong;Dong Nam
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.60 no.6
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    • pp.433-440
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to establish safety zones for bunkering operations of hydrogen propulsion ships in coastal areas through risk assessment and evaluate their validity. Using a 350 kW-class ferry operating in Busan Port as the subject of analysis, with quantitative risk assessment based on accident consequence and frequency analysis, along with a social risk assessment considering population density. The results of the risk assessment indicate that all scenarios were within acceptable risk criteria and ALARP region. The most critical accident scenarios involve complete hose rupture during bunkering, resulting in jet flames (Frequency: 2.76E-06, Fatalities: 9.81) and vapor cloud explosions (Frequency: 1.33E-08, Fatalities: 14.24). For the recommended safety zone criteria in the 6% hose cross-sectional area leakage scenario, It could be appropriate criteria considering overall risk level and safety zones criteria for hydrogen vehicle refueling stations. This research contributes to establishing safety zone for bunkering operations of hydrogen propulsion ships through risk assessment and provides valuable technical guidelines.

Feasibility Study on the Treatment of Food Waste Leachate in Municipal Wastewater Treatment Facility - Case of P city - (음폐수 공공하수처리시설 연계처리 타당성 평가 - P시 사례 -)

  • Park, Jong-Hun;Kang, Shin-Young;Kim, Sang-Hyoun
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2016
  • P city government considers to treat a part of food waste leachate in a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), as the capacity of an existing combined treatment plant for food waste leachate is lower than the generation of food waste leachate in the city. Furthermore, the combined treatment plant also treats landfill leachate and directly discharges the effluent to the sea, which may result in a potential environmental problem. Therefore, this study examined the feasibility of the addition of food waste leachate and the effluent of the combined treatment facility on the MWWTP. Acceptable addition amount of the food waste streams, increased pollution loading on the MWWTP, and the treatment cost were estimated according to four scenarios. All the scenarios estimated that the MWWTP would receive most of the food waste streams according to the manual of the ministry of environment with little increase of pollution loading.

Prediction of Heating and Cooling Energy Consumption in Residential Sector Considering Climate Change and Socio-Economic (기후변화와 사회·경제적 요소를 고려한 가정 부문 냉난방 에너지 사용량 변화 예측)

  • Lee, Mi-Jin;Lee, Dong-Kun;Park, Chan;Park, Jin-Han;Jung, Tae-Yong;Kim, Sang-Kyun;Hong, Sung-Chul
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.487-498
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    • 2015
  • The energy problem has occurred because of the effects of rising temperature and growing population and GDP. Prediction for the energy demand is required to respond these problems. Therefore, this study will predict heating and cooling energy consumption in residential sector to be helpful in energy demand management, particularly heating and cooling energy demand management. The AIM/end-use model was used to estimate energy consumption, and service demand was needed in the AIM/end-use model. Service demand was estimated on the basis of formula, and energy consumption was estimated using the AIM/end-use model. As a result, heating and cooling service demand tended to increase in 2050. But in energy consumption, heating decreased and cooling increased.

Evaluation of Future Climate Change Impact on Streamflow of Gyeongancheon Watershed Using SLURP Hydrological Model

  • Ahn, So-Ra;Ha, Rim;Lee, Yong-Jun;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2008
  • The impact on streamflow and groundwater recharge considering future potential climate and land use change was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1999-2002) daily observed streamflow data for a $260.4km^2$ which has been continuously urbanized during the past couple of decades. The model was calibrated and validated with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.8 to 0.7 and 0.7 to 0.5, respectively. The CCCma CGCM2 data by two SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) of the IPCC (Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the future weather data was downscaled by Delta Change Method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. The future land uses were predicted by CA (Cellular Automata)-Markov technique using the time series land use data of Landsat images. The future land uses showed that the forest and paddy area decreased 10.8 % and 6.2 % respectively while the urban area increased 14.2 %. For the future vegetation cover information, a linear regression between monthly NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from NOAA/AVHRR images and monthly mean temperature using five years (1998 - 2002) data was derived for each land use class. The future highest NDVI value was 0.61 while the current highest NDVI value was 0.52. The model results showed that the future predicted runoff ratio ranged from 46 % to 48 % while the present runoff ratio was 59 %. On the other hand, the impact on runoff ratio by land use change showed about 3 % increase comparing with the present land use condition. The streamflow and groundwater recharge was big decrease in the future.

Performance Evaluation of Rainfall Disaggregation according to Temporal Scale of Rainfall Data (강우자료의 시간해상도에 따른 강우 분해 성능 평가)

  • Lee, Jeonghoon;Jang, Juhyoung;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2018
  • In this study, rainfall data with various temporal scales (3-, 6-, 12-, 24-hr) are disaggregated into 1-hourly rainfall data to evaluate the performance of rainfall disaggregation technique. The rainfall disaggregation technique is based on a database generated by the stochastic point rainfall model, the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model (NSRPM). Performance evaluation is carried out using July rainfall data of Ulsan, Changwon, Busan and Milyang weather stations in Korea. As a result, the rainfall disaggregation technique showed excellent performance that can consider not only the major statistics of rainfall but also the spatial correlation. It also indirectly shows the uncertainty of future climate change scenarios with daily temporal scale. The rainfall disaggregation technique is expected to disaggregate the future climate change scenarios, and to be effective in the future watershed management.