• Title/Summary/Keyword: 2008 Global Crisis

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Estimation of VaR and Expected Shortfall for Stock Returns (주식수익률의 VaR와 ES 추정: GARCH 모형과 GPD를 이용한 방법을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun;Park, Hwa-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.651-668
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    • 2010
  • Various estimators of two risk measures of a specific financial portfolio, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, are compared for each case of 1-day and 10-day horizons. We use the Korea Composite Stock Price Index data of 20-year period including the year 2008 of the global financial crisis. Indexes of five foreign stock markets are also used for the empirical comparison study. The estimator considering both the heavy tail of loss distribution and the conditional heteroscedasticity of time series is of main concern, while other standard and new estimators are considered too. We investigate which estimator is best for the Korean stock market and which one shows the best overall performance.

A Study on the Main Clauses of a Shipbuilding Contract and the Relevant Measures on Disputable Issues (선박수출계약의 주요 조항 및 주요 분쟁사항에 대한 대처방안의 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Man
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.54
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    • pp.3-44
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    • 2012
  • Shipbuilding industry is one of the most influential ones in Korea. As shipbuilding industry is labor-intensive, it contributes to enhancing both local economy and national economy. Shipbuilding industry has been downsizing since the end of 2008 due to global financial crisis caused by America's sub-prime mortgage and aggravated by European countries' fiscal deficit. As a large fund is required for a single normal shipbuilding contract, fund raising is one of the most important elements in shipbuilding contract. Shipbuilding contract, requires refund guarantee in order for a buyer to reimburse the progressive payment paid to a builder. The disputes under shipbuilding contracts are mostly settled by arbitration rather than by law suit. English laws and English courts have been preferred for the choice of law as well as for the choice of forum. Due to depreciation of the ship value since the end of 2008, a number of buyers are trying to cancel the contract by raising unjust claim under the contract. Once disputes occurs regarding shipbuilding contract, a large amount of loss is inevitable. In order to mitigate the disputes arising from the shipbuilding contract, careful caution is required in drafting a shipbuilding contract.

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Risk Analysis and Classification of Public-Private Partenership in Project Financing Process (민관합동형 PF사업의 단계별 리스크 분류 및 위험도분석)

  • Park, Hye-Sung;Kim, Sun-Kuk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2011
  • With Public-private partnership PF (project financing) deals saw explosive increase in quantity since its introduction to Korea in 2001, but, met with severe recession in the fallouts of the financial crisis that hit the global economy in 2008. This study intends to identify the risk factors corresponding to issues of public-private partnership projects financing structure and classify and analyze them by project phase. Outcomes of this research are expected to help recognize risk factors in each project phase during project planning and develop risk control and mitigation strategy during project implementation.

Influence of the Number of Runner Vanes on Tubular-type Hydroturbine (소형 튜블러수차의 러너베인 깃 수의 영향)

  • Nam, Sang-Hyun;Kim, You-Taek;Choi, Young-Do;Lee, Young-Ho
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.908-914
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    • 2008
  • The world is facing a serious energy problem which destroying the environment. In addition, fossil fuel such as oil and coal that caused global warming and the environmental problems due to acid rain had been gradually exhausted. To solve this problem that has crisis of energy, it is necessary time and effort for research and development of renewable energy in the future. As alternative energy, small hydropower generation which has output of less or equal to 100kW is attracting considerable attention. This is because of its small, simple, renewable, and large amount of energy resources. By using a small hydropower generator of which main concept is based on using the different water pressure levels in pipe lines, energy which was initially wasted by use reducing of a valve at the end of the pipeline, is collected by turbine in the small hydropower generator. In this study, we investigated the influence of the number of runner vanes on the characteristics of tubular-type hydroturbine.

Reduced Impact of Export on Korea's Economic Growth - Export Multiplier Approach (한국경제의 성장둔화와 수출승수)

  • Oh, Jong-seok;Hong, Sungwook;Kang, Duyong
    • 사회경제평론
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.1-38
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    • 2018
  • In this study we attempt to quantify the export multiplier to definitively show how exports have undergirded the Korean economy and doing so we will describe how the export multiplier effect has diminished since the global financial crisis in 2008. We also argue that a trend of disinclination in the marginal propensity to consume, one of the determinants of the multiplier, has played an important role in its contraction. In this new, alien economic environment, the kinds of policies that once buttressed the export-led growth strategy of the halcyon days require immediate revision. More policies should implemented that bolster domestic demand, especially consumption, rather than continuing efforts to facilitate supply side-based growth through export-friendly policies.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

A Study on the Financial Service Negotiations in the Korean-Chinese Free-Trade Agreement (FTA) with Respect to RMB Internationalization (위안화 국제화를 고려한 한·중 FTA 금융서비스 협상 전략에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Su;Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This paper analyzes the influence of the RMB internationalization on the KRW/dollar exchange rate using an autoregressive distributed lag model. Comparing the parameter estimators from the sample period before and after the global financial crisis, we found that the RMB/dollar exchange rate has increasingly become more influential on the KRW/dollar exchange rate. Moreover, for the past several years, the Chinese government has actively utilized the financial service FTA negotiation as a measure for the RMB internationalization. This paper simultaneously considers RMB internationalization and financial service negotiations in the Korean-Chinese FTA. The purpose of this paper is to explicitly suggest a direction for the financial service negotiations in the Korean-Chinese FTA considering the effects of RMB internationalization. Research design, data, and methodology - The research plan of this paper has two parts. First, for an empirical study, this paper uses the daily exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the ASEAN5, Taiwan,and Korea. By using an autoregressive distributed lag model, this paper studies the influence of the change in the RMB/dollar exchange rate on changes in the local currency/dollar exchange rate in seven economies neighboring China. Our sample periods are 06/2005 - 07/2008 and 06/2010 -02/2013. During these periods, China was under the multi-currency basket system. We exempted the period of 08/2008 - 05/2010 from the analysis because there was nearly no RMB/dollar exchange rate fluctuation during those months. Second, after analyzing the recent financial service liberalizations and deregulations in China, we recommend a direction for the financial service negotiations in the Korean-Chinese FTA. In the past several years,the main Chinese financial policy agenda has surrounded the RMB internationalization. Therefore, it is crucial to understand this in the search for strategies for the financial service negotiations in the Korean-Chinese FTA. This paper employs an existing literature survey and examines the FTA protocols in its research methodology. Results and Conclusions - After the global financial crisis, the Chinese government wanted to break away from the dollar influence and pursued independent RMB internationalization in order to continue the growth and stability of its economy. Hence, every neighboring economy of China has been strategically impacted by RMB internationalization. Nevertheless, there is little empirical study on the influence of RMB internationalization on the KRW/dollar exchange rate. This paper is one of the few studies to analyze this problem comprehensively. By using a relatively simple estimation model, we can confirm that the coefficient of the RMB/dollar exchange rate has become more significant, except in the case of Indonesia. Although Korea is not under the multi-currency basket system but under the weakly controlled floating exchange rate system, its coefficient appears as large as that of the ASEAN5. This is the basis of the currency cooperation that has grown from the expansion of trade between the two countries. These empirical results suggest that the Korean government should specifically consider the RMB internationalization in the Korean-Chinese FTA negotiations.

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The Effects of Institutional Block Ownership on Market Liquidity (기관투자자의 대량주식보유가 시장유동성에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Kyung-Shick;Jung, Heon-Yong
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2014
  • This study examined the effects institutional block ownership on the stock market liquidity in Korean Stock Market. The two measures of institutional block ownership are used. They are the percentage of a stock owned by institutional blockholder and the number of institutional blockholder that own the stock. This study used the Amihud(2002) illiquidity measure to measure stock market liquidity. The results are as fellows. First, this study showed that the number of institutional blockholder is significantly negatively correlated with the Amihud(2002) illiquidity measure in the analysis which is used the whole data. But we found no a consistent results between the number of institutional blockholder and the Amihud(2002) illiquidity measure in the grouped institutional blockholder's number analysis. This indicates that the effects institutional blockholder on market liquidity is not simple. Second, this study showed that the percentage of a stock owned by institutional blockholder are negatively related with Amihud(2002) illiquidity measure, especially revealed statistically significant in the group 3(11.71%~17.38%) and group 4(7.45%~11.65%). This results suggest that the institutional blockholder have positive effect on the market liquidity in the group 3 and 4. Third, the significance of the percentage of institutional block ownership and the number of institutional block ownership in explaining illiquidity are more showed in the term of the global financial crisis(2008) than the before and the after of the global financial crisis.

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A Study on the Efficiency Analysis for the Automotive Parts Manufacturer Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA를 활용한 자동차부품 기업의 효율성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Hyung-Kook;Lee, Cheol-Gyu;Yoo, Wang-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.609-615
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    • 2014
  • Due to the recent global recession, the car industry demand levels have plummeted which led to a crisis in the automotive parts industry for the first time in history. Since the fourth quarter of 2008, the automotive parts manufacturers in America have faced a record loss and those in Japan and Europe who also had a strong track record are facing a weak economy. In addition, the domestic automotive parts industry is also affected by the global economic crisis. This research is that the relative efficiency analysis utilizing the DEA has done on the object of 25 small and medium-sized automotive parts manufacturers publicly listed, As the efficiency analysis result 6 of 25 manufacturers are efficient in CCR model and 12 manufactures have shown efficiency in BCC model, the efficiency analysis in consideration of the manufacturer size. The manufacturers with efficiency 1 in 25 manufacturers are DMU 1, 5, 7, 10, 18, 24 and the relatively benchmarking objects in other manufactures are DMU 1, 10, 24, Based on the results of this research, a direction to the domestic automotive parts manufacturers as well as a significant information will be provided in managing the companies in the future by the improvement of management efficiency through the practical efficiency analysis.

The Tokenization of Space and Cash Out without Debt: Focus on Security Token Offerings Using Blockchain Technology (공간의 토큰화와 빚 없이 현금 뽑기: 블록체인 기술을 활용한 증권형 토큰 발행을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hoobin;Hong, Dasom
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.76-101
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    • 2021
  • This paper analyzes two cases of space tokenization, Meridio and QuantmRE, to explore the potential of tokenization as a new means of space financialization. Space tokenization is based on blockchain technology and security token offering (STO). Although some financial geographers noted the possible impact of blockchain technology on space financialization, it has not been examined in depth. Therefore, this paper demonstrates space tokenization cases in detail. Meridio and QuantmRE suggest financial structures that convert space into tokens based on fractional ownership transactions. QuantmRE, specifically, allows a homeowner to secure cash without either debt or ownership relinquishment through sales of tokenized home equity. As this method takes a form of sale transaction rather than a loan, it enables financial institutions to circumvent strengthened regulation on loans after the 2008 global financial crisis. Moreover, even "house poor" households, who own houses but lack cash due to excessive loans, can cash out from their properties through QuantmRE. As such, space tokenization enables financial institutions to overcome constrained conditions after the global financial crisis, thereby reproducing space financialization. Space tokenization also has the potential to geographically expand space financialization through stimulating investment in the depressed housing market.