• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.45-87
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• 2014

This study traces the possibility of political change in the Malaysian electoral history, especially by focusing on the 13th general election held in May 2013. The results of the 13th general election was another turning point in the history of Malaysia's electoral politics. Following after the 12th general election held in 2008, opposition coalition(PR) achieves a remarkable electoral result by obtaining over 50% of the total votes. Opposition parties also successfully collapsed the ruling coalition(BN)'s two-third majority in parliamentary. It was de-facto defeat of the ruling coalition and victory of the opposition coalition. More precisely, the 2013 election results show that the reformasi movement, which was active in 1998-99 period, are still alive and its impact on Malaysian electoral politics get stronger. Malaysia has long been considered as a typical electoral authoritarian regime since its independence in 1957. It is because that there has been negative relations between electoral politics and political change through out its electoral history. As shown in the most recent two general elections held in 2008 and 2013, however, Malaysia's hegemonic political system can be possibly changed through electoral politics. This article examines the detailed results of the series of post-reformarsi general elections(1999, 2004, 2008, 2013) and its political implications towards the nexus of electoral politics and political change under the electoral authoritarian regime in Malaysia.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.201-238
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• 2012

This study analyses the nexus between political change and development of parliamentary politics in Malaysia. The continued and stable parliamentary politics did not necessarily associated with political development in Malaysia for the last five decades. Except the 1969 general election, the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional(BN), has never been failed to obtain the two-third majority of parliamentary seats even though there has been regular general elections in every 4-5 years without any interruption. It is, however, worth noting that there has been dramatic political changes since the late 1990s. In particular, the 2008 general election showed the remarkable results, collapsing the two-third majority of BN's parliamentary seats. The opposition parties even took over the 5 state governments out of 12 in total. The more distinguished feature was the emergence of opposition coalition, called Pakatan Rakyak(PR), right after the 2008 general election. It was the first united coalition in Malaysia's modern political history among the severely divided opposition parties. Since its emergence, the PR has initiated various changes leading towards a more active parliamentary politics. In this regards, this study argues that parliamentary politics is no more regarded as a dependent variable in Malaysia's political process.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.57-72
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• 2009

In Korea, telephone surveys have been used in election forecasting since 1992. In some elections, predictions were excellent, but in some elections, the predictions based on telephone surveys were not good. So, exit polls have been used along with the telephone surveys in predicting election outcomes since 2001 by the major broadcasting networks. Though telephone surveys, in general, have been less accurate than exit polls in election forecasting from 2000 to 2003, they were more accurate in the 2004 General Election than the exit polls. All predictions on the winners by the telephone surveys turned out to be accurate. But such success has not persisted. In the 2008 General Election, the telephone surveys was less accurate than the exit polls and actually its accuracy fell clown to the level of the 2000 General Election. This paper tried to find out. the factors responsible for the fluctuation of the accuracy of telephone polls.

• Survey Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.87-100
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• 2008

We calculated the predictive interval for the number of seats belonging to major political parties in the case of the 2004 General Election of Korea, using Bayesian frame of inference. Moreover, we proposed the adjustment procedure for correcting the minor group's propensity of refusal or nonresponse due to effect of the spiral of silence.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.91-118
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• 2016

As all are aware, the results of the Malaysia 12th General Election (GE-12) in 2008 have surprised many. Not only the dominant parties Barisan Nasional (BN) were shocked by the loss of significant numbers of seats but for the first time in the history of Malaysia politics, vis-${\grave{a}}$-vis, electoral affairs, they were denied a two-thirds majority in the Parliament. Notwithstanding the opposition parties such as Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR: The People's Justice Party) that form the opposition coalition called Pakatan Rakyat (People's Alliance: PR), has come to a surprised with the GE-12 result, in which they not even think that were able to challenge hegemonic politics of BN, managed to capture and formed a government at the state level namely Kedah, Penang, Perak, and Selangor, except Kelantan which has been under the control of PAS since the 1990 general election. This article aims to analyze whether Sabah as a "fixed deposit"state is still relevant in understanding the continuity and survival of the BN political hegemony in the context of Malaysia political developments post-13th general election.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.7-43
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• 2023

This study examines and identified a series of strategies of Russia's political elites to maintain and strengthen their dominance by reviewing the case of revisions in the election laws of Russia in 2014. At that time, a mixed-member electoral system was newly introduced, and on the surface, it seemed that the new system was a step toward meeting the demands of the people for "enhanced democracy". However, in 2016 and 2021, the ruling party of Russia won the general elections by making the most of the factors that could distort the election results inherent in the mixed-member electoral system. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze whether the revision of election laws was a mere vehicle used by the ruling party, United Russia, to maintain its political power, or whether it was a leap forward to achieve democracy. The study result indicate that the revision of election laws in 2014 was part of the policy responses to the internal conflicts in the circle of Russia's political elites, which had been rising since 2008, as well as to the public resistance. In other words, it was confirmed that the revision of election laws was one of the measures taken to "minimize competition" and "reproduce political power on a stable basis".

• Survey Research
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.33-55
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• 2010

In this study, we newly define the Total Survey Error(TSE) in exit poll and investigate the TSEs of the exit poll survey for the 18th general election of 2008 to analyse the cause of the exit poll prediction error. To explore the main cause and effect of the total survey error, the total survey error was divided by the sampling error which comes from sampling process of poll stations and the non-sampling error which comes from selecting voter and collecting responses from sampled voters in each electoral district. We consider the relationship between non-response rates and total survey error as well as non-sampling error. Also, we study the representativeness of the exit poll sample by comparing the sex/age distribution of the exit poll data and the National Election Commission poll data.

• American Studies
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.169-198
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• 2009

Unlike the Democratic nomination, Republican nomination struggle has ended with an easy victory of Senator John McCain. This paper claims that the easy victory of McCain should not be interpreted as Republican's return to the median voter, because it masks religious schism and ideological discord among the Republicans. Christian rights were still reluctant to support McCain mostly due to his liberal position on social issues. In addition, the conservatives who request stricter immigration policy presented the mixed feeling toward the Republican candidate. Even though McCain chose the harmony inside the Republican party, rather than sticked to his liberal attitude toward social issues during the campaign for 2008 general election, McCain's defeat is unlikely to result in a rapid change in the Republican party.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.131-161
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• 2017

The political dynamics of Malaysia in 2016 should be seen as a process of losing an political opportunity mainly due to the split in opposition parties. The opportunity for political development was triggered by the ruling party in crisis. The ongoing 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal involving the Prime Minister Najib Razak would have provided a favorable condition for the transfer of power. The opposition parties have however failed to utilize the chance that has arisen since the general elections in 2008 and 2013 due to the chronic problem of disunity. It can be seen as distortions of political development referring to a phenomenon in which a chance for regime change formed by the crisis in authoritarian regime is distorted by internal conflicts among opposition parties. Malaysia's political turmoil seemed to paralyze its economy while foreign policy was used as a tool for domestic politics. It was reported that the key economic indicator have worsen including exports and budget deficit. The ringgit had dropped to its lowest level since the economic crisis in 1997-98 which was mainly attributed to diminishing credibility on the Najib's administration. Najib's political struggle has also impeded Malaysia's foreign policy which has attempt to embrace China and the Rohingya issue. The chance to manage key risks would be diminished if oppositions' disunity continues as there is speculation that the general election could be held in 2017.