• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.57-72
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• 2009

In Korea, telephone surveys have been used in election forecasting since 1992. In some elections, predictions were excellent, but in some elections, the predictions based on telephone surveys were not good. So, exit polls have been used along with the telephone surveys in predicting election outcomes since 2001 by the major broadcasting networks. Though telephone surveys, in general, have been less accurate than exit polls in election forecasting from 2000 to 2003, they were more accurate in the 2004 General Election than the exit polls. All predictions on the winners by the telephone surveys turned out to be accurate. But such success has not persisted. In the 2008 General Election, the telephone surveys was less accurate than the exit polls and actually its accuracy fell clown to the level of the 2000 General Election. This paper tried to find out. the factors responsible for the fluctuation of the accuracy of telephone polls.

• Survey Research
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.33-55
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• 2010

In this study, we newly define the Total Survey Error(TSE) in exit poll and investigate the TSEs of the exit poll survey for the 18th general election of 2008 to analyse the cause of the exit poll prediction error. To explore the main cause and effect of the total survey error, the total survey error was divided by the sampling error which comes from sampling process of poll stations and the non-sampling error which comes from selecting voter and collecting responses from sampled voters in each electoral district. We consider the relationship between non-response rates and total survey error as well as non-sampling error. Also, we study the representativeness of the exit poll sample by comparing the sex/age distribution of the exit poll data and the National Election Commission poll data.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.201-238
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• 2012

This study analyses the nexus between political change and development of parliamentary politics in Malaysia. The continued and stable parliamentary politics did not necessarily associated with political development in Malaysia for the last five decades. Except the 1969 general election, the ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional(BN), has never been failed to obtain the two-third majority of parliamentary seats even though there has been regular general elections in every 4-5 years without any interruption. It is, however, worth noting that there has been dramatic political changes since the late 1990s. In particular, the 2008 general election showed the remarkable results, collapsing the two-third majority of BN's parliamentary seats. The opposition parties even took over the 5 state governments out of 12 in total. The more distinguished feature was the emergence of opposition coalition, called Pakatan Rakyak(PR), right after the 2008 general election. It was the first united coalition in Malaysia's modern political history among the severely divided opposition parties. Since its emergence, the PR has initiated various changes leading towards a more active parliamentary politics. In this regards, this study argues that parliamentary politics is no more regarded as a dependent variable in Malaysia's political process.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.7-43
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• 2023

This study examines and identified a series of strategies of Russia's political elites to maintain and strengthen their dominance by reviewing the case of revisions in the election laws of Russia in 2014. At that time, a mixed-member electoral system was newly introduced, and on the surface, it seemed that the new system was a step toward meeting the demands of the people for "enhanced democracy". However, in 2016 and 2021, the ruling party of Russia won the general elections by making the most of the factors that could distort the election results inherent in the mixed-member electoral system. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze whether the revision of election laws was a mere vehicle used by the ruling party, United Russia, to maintain its political power, or whether it was a leap forward to achieve democracy. The study result indicate that the revision of election laws in 2014 was part of the policy responses to the internal conflicts in the circle of Russia's political elites, which had been rising since 2008, as well as to the public resistance. In other words, it was confirmed that the revision of election laws was one of the measures taken to "minimize competition" and "reproduce political power on a stable basis".

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.131-161
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• 2017

The political dynamics of Malaysia in 2016 should be seen as a process of losing an political opportunity mainly due to the split in opposition parties. The opportunity for political development was triggered by the ruling party in crisis. The ongoing 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal involving the Prime Minister Najib Razak would have provided a favorable condition for the transfer of power. The opposition parties have however failed to utilize the chance that has arisen since the general elections in 2008 and 2013 due to the chronic problem of disunity. It can be seen as distortions of political development referring to a phenomenon in which a chance for regime change formed by the crisis in authoritarian regime is distorted by internal conflicts among opposition parties. Malaysia's political turmoil seemed to paralyze its economy while foreign policy was used as a tool for domestic politics. It was reported that the key economic indicator have worsen including exports and budget deficit. The ringgit had dropped to its lowest level since the economic crisis in 1997-98 which was mainly attributed to diminishing credibility on the Najib's administration. Najib's political struggle has also impeded Malaysia's foreign policy which has attempt to embrace China and the Rohingya issue. The chance to manage key risks would be diminished if oppositions' disunity continues as there is speculation that the general election could be held in 2017.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.48
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• pp.109-134
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• 2009

This study explores the political parody, which has become an active art form in order to express Korean Internet users' political practices, especially, during the politically turbulent periods from the presidential election of 2003 to the recent candlelight vigil protest of 2008. This study investigates the rise and fall of a parody culture by online users from the mid-2000s, and also examines aesthetical aspects of parodic artworks relying on amateurism culminated in 2004. Specifically, the current study questions an aesthetical lack shown in 'appropriation', by which most of the online users simply produce imitations of original image. This study rather notes 'photomontage' as an aesthetic prototype, the political aesthetics made by John Heartfield, through which this study intends to observe how his aesthetical legacy of political art could be realized in the contemporary form of political parodies produced by online users. The present paper concludes that online users' political participations in producing critical works of art could allow us to negate the dichotomy between the elite and the mass, professional artists and amateur parodists, and a radical politics and the politics of style.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.126-132
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• 2009

Purpose: We wanted to evaluate the prognostic factors for the pathologic N2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who were treated by postoperative radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 112 pN2 NSCLC patients who underwent surgery and postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) From January 1999 to February 2008. Seventy-five (67%) patients received segmentectomy or lobectomy and 37 (33%) patients received pneumonectomy. The resection margin was negative in 94 patients, and it was positive or close in 18 patients. Chemotherapy was administered to 103 (92%) patients. Nine (8%) patients received PORT alone. The median radiation dose was 54 Gy (range, 45 to 66), and the fraction size was 1.8~2 Gy. Results: The 2-year overall survival (OS) rate was 60.2% and the disease free survival (DFS) rate was 44.7% for all the patients. Univariate analysis showed that the patients with multiple-station N2 disease had significantly reduced OS and DFS (p=0.047, p=0.007) and the patients with an advanced T stage ($\geq$T3) had significantly reduced OS and DFS (p<0.001, p=0.025). A large tumor size ($\geq$5 cm) and positive lymphovascular invasion reduced the OS (p=0.035, 0.034). Using multivariate analysis, we found that multiple-station N2 disease and an advanced T stage ($\geq$T3) significantly reduced the OS and DFS. Seventy one patients (63.4%) had recurrence of disease. The patterns of failure were loco-regional in 23 (20.5%) patients, distant failure in 62 (55.4%) and combined loco-regional and distant failure in 14 (12.5%) patients. Conclusion: Multiple involvement of mediastinal nodal stations for the pN2 NSCLC patients with PORT was a poor prognostic factor in this study. A prospective study is necessary to evaluate the N2 subclassification and to optimize the adjuvant treatment.