• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Broadcast Engineers Conference
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• 2016.06a
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• pp.95-98
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• 2016

민주주의의 꽃, 제 20 대 국회의원 선거가 막을 내렸다. 지난 선거에서는 방송사뿐만 아니라 정당들도 엄청난 비용 지출과 노력이 소요되었다. 한 예로, 지난 4. 13 총선거 (제 20 대 국회의원)에서 방송 3 사 출구조사 비용으로 약 66 억원 이상이 지출됐다. 그리고 정당에서는 여론조사 비용으로 약 70 억원 이상을 지출했다. 이러한 큰 비용 지출과, 담당자들의 노력을 줄이기 위해 본 논문에서는 텍스트 마이닝과 감정분석을 적용한 후보 당선자 예측 어플리케이션을 제안한다. 첫째, 소셜 그래프 모델을 소개하여 지역 구조를 발견한다. 둘째, 텍스트 마이닝 기법을 이용하여, 후보자 관련 데이터를 가공한다. 셋째, 텍스트 감정 분석을 통해 후보자의 정보를 수치화 한다. 본 논문의 성능과 효율성을 평가하기 위해, 제 20 대 국회의원 선거에 사례연구를 진행하였다. 제안한 방법이 정확도와 수학적 통계 검증을 통해 가치 있는 효율성을 보였다. 선거방송을 위한 후보자 예측 도구의 도입으로 향후 선거(방송)에서의 큰 비용과 노력을 줄이는데 도움을 줄 것이라 기대한다.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2873-2881
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• 2018

It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.191-197
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• 2017

As individual opinions are expressed and discussed through SNS, SNS is used as a new basis to estimate the direction of public opinion. This change also appears in election. So many voters state their views through SNS, so that candidates utilize it as a new space for communication. In this paper, positive mention in SNS were collected and analysed in the course of the election of Korean 20th Congressman, to understand how the mention on election in SNS affects the result of election. This result was compared with the traditional survey on public opinion, to find out which one more corresponds to the result. In conclusion, mention in SNS coincide more with the result of elelction than the traditional survey.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.9
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• pp.208-223
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• 2020

In the 21st general election held in April 15, 2020, the importance of social media as an election campaigning tool became more prominent when engaged with Corona 19. Therefore, in this study, various studies were conducted to establish SNS strategy as an election campaign tool. This study analyzed the contents of SNS (Facebook, Twitter, YouTube) activities as an election campaign tool to analyze messages on social media messages of candidates Lee Nak-yeon and candidate Hwang Kyo-an of Jongno-gu, Seoul during the 2020 21st National Assembly election. Data collection mainly analyzed posts from each candidate's official account, and the research method used text analysis using the R program. Word cloud, comparative analysis, q-graph analysis, LDA, and STM analysis were used during text analysis. In addition, the analysis result was confirmed to be statistically significant through correlation analysis. As a result of research, candidate Lee Nak-yeon's election includes corona, people, problems, crisis, suffering, and wisdom, which indicates that the crisis caused by corona must be overcome through any means possible. On the other hand, candidate Hwang Kyo-an's election includes Moon Jae-in, the regime, save, the fatherland, the judge, and the economy. And from the perspective of political publicity, candidate Lee Nak-yeon made a lot of acclaims, while candidate Hwang Kyo-an made a lot of attacks, and both themes emphasized the policy rather than the image.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.111-120
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• 2020

As an application of big data and artificial intelligence techniques, this study proposes an atypical language-based sentimental opinion poll methodology, unlike conventional opinion poll methodology. An alternative method for the sentimental classification model based on existing statistical analysis was to collect real-time Twitter data related to parliamentary elections and perform empirical analyses on the Polarity and Intensity of public opinion using attribute-based sensitivity analysis. In order to classify the polarity of words used on individual SNS, the polarity of the new Twitter data was estimated using the learned Lasso and Ridge regression models while extracting independent variables that greatly affect the polarity variables. A social network analysis of the relationships of people with friends on SNS suggested a way to identify peer group sensitivity. Based on what voters expressed on social media, political opinion sensitivity analysis was used to predict party approval rating and measure the accuracy of the predictive model polarity analysis, confirming the applicability of the sensitivity analysis methodology in the political field.