• Title/Summary/Keyword: 2-period model

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An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for The Demand and Supply of Labor force (노동력수급의 요인분석과 전망)

  • 김중수
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

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Anti-diabetic effects of aqueous and ethanol extract of Dendropanax morbifera Leveille in streptozotocin-induced diabetes model (Streptozotocin에 의해 유도된 당뇨모델동물에서 황칠나무 (Dendropanax morbifera Leveille)의 열수추출물과 에탄올추출물의 당뇨 질환 개선 효능)

  • An, Na Young;Kim, Ji-Eun;Hwang, DaeYoun;Ryu, Ho Kyung
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.394-402
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Dendropanax morifera Leveille (DML) exhibits diverse biological and pharmacological activities, including anti-oxidative effect, anti-cancer activity, hepatoprotection, immunological stimulation, and bone regeneration. As part of the identification for novel functions of DML, we investigated the therapeutic effects of DML on diabetes induced by streptozotocine (STZ) treatment. Methods: First, the four extracts including the water extract of leaf (DLW), the ethanol extract of leaf (DLE), the water extract of stem (DSW), and the ethanol extract of stem (DSE) were collected from the leaf and stem of DML using a hot water and ethanol solvent. Alterations in body weight, glucose concentration, insulin level, and pancreatic islet structure were investigated in diabetic mice after treatment with extracts of DML for 2 weeks. Results: Among four extracts, the highest level of total polyphenols and total flavonoids was detected in DLW, while the lowest level of these was measured in DSE. The radical scavenging activity was also higher in DLW than in the other three extracts at the concentration of $25-100{\mu}g/mL$, although this activity was maintained at a constant level in all groups at the concentration of $500{\mu}g/mL$. Based on the results of anti-oxidant activity, DLW and DLE were selected for examination of anti-diabetic effects in a diabetes model. Body weight was gradually decreased in all STZ treated groups compared with the No treated group. However, four STZ/DML treated groups maintained a high level of body weight during 7-14 days, while the STZ/vehicle treated group showed a gradual decrease of body weight during the same period. Also, a significant decrease or increase in the concentration of glucose and insulin in the blood of the diabetes model was detected in a subset of groups, although the highest increase was detected in the STZ/DLE-200 treated group. In addition, the histological structure of pancreatic islet was significantly recovered after treatment with DLW and DLE. Conclusion: These results suggest that DLW and DLE may contribute to attenuation of clinical symptoms of diabetes as well as prevent the destruction of pancreatic ${\beta}$-cells in STZ-induced diabetes mice.

Application of Machine Learning Algorithm and Remote-sensed Data to Estimate Forest Gross Primary Production at Multi-sites Level (산림 총일차생산량 예측의 공간적 확장을 위한 인공위성 자료와 기계학습 알고리즘의 활용)

  • Lee, Bora;Kim, Eunsook;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.6_2
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    • pp.1117-1132
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    • 2019
  • Forest covers 30% of the Earth's land area and plays an important role in global carbon flux through its ability to store much greater amounts of carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems. The Gross Primary Production (GPP) represents the productivity of forest ecosystems according to climate change and its effect on the phenology, health, and carbon cycle. In this study, we estimated the daily GPP for a forest ecosystem using remote-sensed data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and machine learning algorithms Support Vector Machine (SVM). MODIS products were employed to train the SVM model from 75% to 80% data of the total study period and validated using eddy covariance measurement (EC) data at the six flux tower sites. We also compare the GPP derived from EC and MODIS (MYD17). The MODIS products made use of two data sets: one for Processed MODIS that included calculated by combined products (e.g., Vapor Pressure Deficit), another one for Unprocessed MODIS that used MODIS products without any combined calculation. Statistical analyses, including Pearson correlation coefficient (R), mean squared error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the outcomes of the model. In general, the SVM model trained by the Unprocessed MODIS (R = 0.77 - 0.94, p < 0.001) derived from the multi-sites outperformed those trained at a single-site (R = 0.75 - 0.95, p < 0.001). These results show better performance trained by the data including various events and suggest the possibility of using remote-sensed data without complex processes to estimate GPP such as non-stationary ecological processes.

Seasonal Variation of Water Quality in a Shallow Eutrophic Reservoir (얕은 부영양 저수지의 육수학적 특성-계절에 따른 수질변화)

  • Kim, Ho-Sub;Hwang, Soon-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.37 no.2 s.107
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    • pp.180-192
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    • 2004
  • This study was carried out to assess the seasonal variation of water quality and the effect of pollutant loading from watershed in a shallow eutrophic reservoir (Shingu reservoir) from November 2002 to February 2004, Stable thermocline which was greater than $1^{\circ}C$ per meter of the water depth formed in May, and low DO concentration (< 2 mg $O_2\;L^{-1}$) was observed in the hypolimnion from May to September, 2003. The ratio of euphotic depth to mixing depth ($Z_{eu}/Z_{m}$) ranged 0.2 ${\sim}$ 1.1, and the depth of the mixed layer exceeded that of the photic layer during study period, except for May when $Z_{eu}$ and $Z_{m}$ were 4 and 4.3 m, respectively. Most of total nitrogen, ranged 1.1 ${\sim}$ 4.5 ${\mu}g\;N\;L^{-1}$, accounted for inorganic nitrogen (Avg, 58.7%), and sharp increase of $NH_3$-N Hand $NO_3$-N was evident during the spring season. TP concentration in the water column ranged 43.9 ${\sim}$ 126.5 ${\mu}g\;P\;L^{-1}$, and the most of TP in the water column accounted for POP (Avg. 80%). During the study period, DIP concentration in the water column was &;lt 10 ${\mu}g\;P\;L^{-1}$ except for July and August when DIP concentration in the hypolimnion was 22.3 and 56.7 ${\mu}g\;P\;L^{-1}$, respectively. Increase of Chl. a concentration observed in July (99 ${\mu}g\;L^{-1}$) and November 2003 (109 ${\mu}g\;L^{-1}$) when P loading through two inflows was high, and showed close relationship with TP concentration (r = 0.55, P< 0.008, n = 22). Mean Chl. a concentration ranged from 13.5 to 84.5 mg $L^{-1}$ in the water column, and the lowest and highest concentration was observed in February 2004 (13.5 ${\pm}$ 1.0 ${\mu}g\;L^{-1}$) and November 2003 (84.5 ${\pm}$29.0 ${\mu}g\;L^{-1}$), respectively. TP concentration in inflow water increased with discharge (r = 0.69, P< 0.001), 40.5% of annual total P loading introduced in 25 July when there was heavy rainfall. Annual total P loading from watershed was 159.0 kg P $yr^{-1}$, and that of DIP loading was 126.3 kg P $yr^{-1}$ (77.7% of TP loading. The loading of TN (5.0ton yr-1) was 30 times higher than that of TP loading (159.0 kg P yr-1), and the 78% of TN was in the form of non-organic nitrogen, 3.9 ton $yr^{-1}$ in mass. P loading in Shingu reservoir was 1.6 g ${\cdot}$ $m^{-2}$ ${\cdot}$ $yr^{-1}$, which passed the excessive critical loading of Vollenweider-OECD critical loading model. The results of this study indicated that P loading from watershed was the major factor to cause eutrophication and temporal variation of water quality in Shingu reservoir Decrease by 71% in TP loading (159 kg $yr^{-1}$) is necessary for the improvement of mesotrophic level. The management of sediment where tine anaerobic condition was evident in summer, thus, the possibility of P release that can be utilized by existing algae, may also be considered.

The Dynamics of CO2 Budget in Gwangneung Deciduous Old-growth Forest: Lessons from the 15 years of Monitoring (광릉 낙엽활엽수 노령림의 CO2 수지 역학: 15년 관측으로부터의 교훈)

  • Yang, Hyunyoung;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Joon;Ryu, Daun;Kim, Su-Jin;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Park, Chan Woo;Yun, Soon Jin
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.198-221
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    • 2021
  • After large-scale reforestation in the 1960s and 1970s, forests in Korea have gradually been aging. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange of old-growth forests is theoretically near zero; however, it can be a CO2 sink or source depending on the intervention of disturbance or management. In this study, we report the CO2 budget dynamics of the Gwangneung deciduous old-growth forest (GDK) in Korea and examined the following two questions: (1) is the preserved GDK indeed CO2 neutral as theoretically known? and (2) can we explain the dynamics of CO2 budget by the common mechanisms reported in the literature? To answer, we analyzed the 15-year long CO2 flux data measured by eddy covariance technique along with other biometeorological data at the KoFlux GDK site from 2006 to 2020. The results showed that (1) GDK switched back-and-forth between sink and source of CO2 but averaged to be a week CO2 source (and turning to a moderate CO2 source for the recent five years) and (2) the interannual variability of solar radiation, growing season length, and leaf area index showed a positive correlation with that of gross primary production (GPP) (R2=0.32~0.45); whereas the interannual variability of both air and surface temperature was not significantly correlated with that of ecosystem respiration (RE). Furthermore, the machine learning-based model trained using the dataset of early monitoring period (first 10 years) failed to reproduce the observed interannual variations of GPP and RE for the recent five years. Biomass data analysis suggests that carbon emissions from coarse woody debris may have contributed partly to the conversion to a moderate CO2 source. To properly understand and interpret the long-term CO2 budget dynamics of GDK, new framework of analysis and modeling based on complex systems science is needed. Also, it is important to maintain the flux monitoring and data quality along with the monitoring of coarse woody debris and disturbances.

Numerical Hydrodynamic Modeling Incorporating the Flow through Permeable Sea-Wall (투수성 호안의 해수유통을 고려한 유동 수치모델링)

  • Bang, Ki-Young;Park, Sung Jin;Kim, Sun Ou;Cho, Chang Woo;Kim, Tae In;Song, Yong Sik;Woo, Seung-Buhm
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2013
  • The Inner Port Phase 2 area of the Pyeongtaek-Dangjin Port is enclosed by a total of three permeable sea-walls, and the disposal site to the east of the Inner Port Phase 2 is also enclosed by two permeable sea-walls. The maximum tidal range measured in the Inner Port Phase 2 and in the disposal site in May 2010 is 4.70 and 2.32 m, respectively. It reaches up to 54 and 27%, respectively of 8.74 m measured simultaneously in the exterior. Regression formulas between the difference of hydraulic head and the rate of interior water volume change, are induced. A three-dimensional numerical hydrodynamic model for the Asan Bay is constructed incorporating a module to compute water discharge through the permeable sea-walls at each computation time step by employing the formulas. Hydrodynamics for the period from 13th to 27th May, 2010 is simulated by driving forces of real-time reconstructed tide with major five constituents($M_2$, $S_2$, $K_1$, $O_1$ and $N_2$) and freshwater discharges from Asan, Sapkyo, Namyang and Seokmoon Sea dikes. The skill scores of modeled mean high waters, mean sea levels and mean low waters are excellent to be 96 to 100% in the interior of permeable sea-walls. Compared with the results of simulation to obstruct the flow through the permeable sea-walls, the maximum current speed increases by 0.05 to 0.10 m/s along the main channel and by 0.1 to 0.2 m/s locally in the exterior of the Outer Sea-wall of Inner Port. The maximum bottom shear stress is also intensified by 0.1 to 0.4 $N/m^2$ in the main channel and by more than 0.4 $N/m^2$ locally around the arched Outer Sea-wall. The module developed to compute the flow through impermeable seawalls can be practically applied to simulate and predict the advection and dispersion of materials, the erosion or deposion of sediments, and the local scouring around coastal structures where large-scale permeable sea-walls are maintained.

Evaluation of Critical Patient Severity Classification System(CPSCS) for neurocritical patients in intensive unit (신경계중환자에게 적용한 중환자 중증도 분류도구 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Jeonh
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.5238-5246
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    • 2012
  • This study was done to identify the evaluation of CPSCS for neurocritical patients and provide effective nursing interventions for these patients. Data were collected from medical records of 203 neurocritical patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to the ICU of C University Hospital during the period from January 2008 to May 2009 and from October 2011 to December 2011. Collected data were analyzed through t-test, ANOVA test, Person's correlation analysis, trend analysis, stepwise multiple regression. The average CPSCS score was $112.09{\pm}18.91$ and there was a significant trendency for higher severity to lead to higher CPSCS's scores(survival: J-T:9.795, die: J-T:5.415, p=<.001). The scores of the respective areas follows measurement of vital sign($3.74{\pm}2.15$), monitoring($28.97{\pm}4.31$), activity daily living ($34.99{\pm}3.66$), feeding($.19{\pm}.98$), intravenous infusion ($18.20{\pm}8.27$), treatment/procedure ($16.93{\pm}4.90$), respiratory therapy($8.61{\pm}7.07$). By means of stepwise multiple regression analysis, the intravenous therapy & medication, respiratory therapy, activities of daily living, and monitoring area that contains the model showed a significant (F=2073.963, p<.001), and they explained 98.1% of CPSCS. These findings provide information that is relevant in designing interventions to enhance CPSCS among neurocritical patients in hospital.

Rice Yield Estimation of South Korea from Year 2003-2016 Using Stacked Sparse AutoEncoder (SSAE 알고리즘을 통한 2003-2016년 남한 전역 쌀 생산량 추정)

  • Ma, Jong Won;Lee, Kyungdo;Choi, Ki-Young;Heo, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.5_2
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    • pp.631-640
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    • 2017
  • The estimation of rice yield affects the income of farmers as well as the fields related to agriculture. Moreover, it has an important effect on the government's policy making including the control of supply demand and the price estimation. Thus, it is necessary to build the crop yield estimation model and from the past, many studies utilizing empirical statistical models or artificial neural network algorithms have been conducted through climatic and satellite data. Presently, scientists have achieved successful results with deep learning algorithms in the field of pattern recognition, computer vision, speech recognition, etc. Among deep learning algorithms, the SSAE (Stacked Sparse AutoEncoder) algorithm has been confirmed to be applicable in the field of forecasting through time series data and in this study, SSAE was utilized to estimate the rice yield in South Korea. The climatic and satellite data were used as the input variables and different types of input data were constructed according to the period of rice growth in South Korea. As a result, the combination of the satellite data from May to September and the climatic data using the 16 day average value showed the best performance with showing average annual %RMSE (percent Root Mean Square Error) and region %RMSE of 7.43% and 7.16% that the applicability of the SSAE algorithm could be proved in the field of rice yield estimation.

Improvement of the Calculation Standard for Prolongation cost of Long-term Continuing Contracts Construction Project (장기계속계약공사의 공기연장 추가간접비 산정 개선방안)

  • Jeong, Kichang;Lee, Jaeseob
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.30-37
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    • 2017
  • In Korea, additional indirect costs generated from the time period extension of public construction projects have been studied. Practical claims against such costs are increasing. There are no clear criteria for calculating the delay cost caused by the extension, and thus calculation methods differ across entities. Logical valid calculation methods have also not been researched. Further, there are no Korean studies on the additional indirect cost caused by a suspension in a public construction project on a long-term continuing contract. The purpose of this research is to propose a method of calculating the indirect cost incurred by construction time extension that reflects the characteristics of Korean public construction projects. The cost patterns generated during construction periods were analyzed, and then the current criteria of calculating the indirect costs caused by the extension were examined. Following this, actual conditions and practices in the field were surveyed and the current calculation method was applied to a model case to compare the actual cost and that determined from the current calculation method. Issues with the current method were identified by this comparison. Based on this, this research proposes a method of calculating the total actual cost caused by a suspension in a public construction project that is appropriate for calculating the additional indirect cost generated by a suspension in a public construction project on a long-term continuing contract.

Characteristics of Meteorological Variables in the Leeward Side associated with the Downslope Windstorm over the Yeongdong Region (영동지역 지형성 강풍과 관련된 풍하측 기상요소의 특징)

  • Cho, Young-Jun;Kwon, Tae-Yong;Choi, Byoung-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.315-329
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    • 2015
  • We investigated the characteristics of meteorological conditions related to the strong downslope wind over the leeward side of the Taebaek Mountains during the period 2005~2010. The days showing the strong wind exceeding $14ms^{-1}$ in Gangwon province were selected as study cases. A total of 15 days of strong wind were observed at Sokcho, Gangneung, Donghae, and Taebaek located over the Yeongdong region. Seven cases related to tropical cyclone (3 cases) and heavy snowfall (2 cases) and heavy rainfall (2 cases) over the Yeongdong region were excluded. To investigate the characteristics of the remaining 8 cases, we used synoptic weather chart, Sokcho radiosonde, Gangneung wind profiler and numerical model. The cases showed no precipitation (or ${\leq}1mm\;day^{-1}$). From the surface and upper level weather chart, we found the pressure distribution of southern high and northern low pattern over the Korean peninsula and warm ridge over the Yeongdong region. Inversion layer (or stable layer) and warm ridge with strong wind were located in about 1~3 km (925~700 hPa) over mountains. The Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) indicated that warm core and temperature ridge with horizontal temperature gradient were $0.10{\sim}0.23^{\circ}C\;km^{-1}$ which were located on 850 hPa pressure level above mountaintop. These results were summarized as a forecasting guidance of downslope windstorm in the Yeongdong region.