• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.137-169
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• 1998

본 연구는 탄소세 부과가 우리 나라의 에너지 및 국민 경제에 미치는 충격의 영향분석을 목적으로 하고 있다. 이를 위해 에너지-경제 연계 계량경제모형을 수립하였는데 본 모형은 기존의 거시경제모형을 수정한 후 에너지 모형과의 연계를 통해 에너지 부문의 충격이 경제부문에 미치는 효과를 정량적으로 파악이 가능하도록 하였다. 본 연구에서는 탄소배출량에 대한 규제가 탄소세 부과를 도입하도록 유도하고 에너지가격의 상승과 에너지수요를 감소시킴으로써 경제부문의 생산을 위축시키는 흐름도를 가정하고 있다. 분석의 과정에서 탄소세 부과가 에너지 및 국민경제 부문에 미치는 효과의 측정은 에너지가격 및 수요변화, 국내총생산액의 변화 등을 통하여 수행되었다. 분석 결과를 요약하면 탄소 배출량의 안정화를 도모하기 위해서는 탄소세가 상당히 높게 부과되어야 하며 전력가격 및 에너지가격의 상승에 미치는 효과와 국내총생산액 등 주요 경제 변수에 미치는 충격이 매우 심각한 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 개발된 계량경제모형을 통하여 여러 가지 정책수단에 대한 시뮬레이션이 가능하게 됨으로써 정책의 효과분석 및 동 분야의 향후 연구에도 많은 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.117-126
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• 2012

The transportation sector accounts for 33% of the total $CO_2$ emissions. Effective control measures for reducing $CO_2$ emissions are urgently needed to address global warming. Objective and reliable methods to estimate $CO_2$ emissions are a prerequisite for the implementation of such effective control measures. However, existing models have not been successful. Even though the average-speed model is one of the most convenient and useful methods for estimating $CO_2$ emissions, it cannot distinguish between a variety of roads as well as traffic conditions in the model. The results of this study found that there may be significant discrepancies between emissions estimated by the current average-speed model and those measured in real driving conditions. This paper proposed the subdivision of emission factors in the average-speed model depending on both traffic and road conditions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.91-104
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• 2017

In this study, we discuss the modeling of domestic transport sector using GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model). The GCAM is one of integrated assessment models widely used in internationally modeling community, and applied for the evaluation of IPCC 5th Report. Nevertheless, it is noted that there are a considerable number of problems in its application to domestic transport sector. First, the base year information of GCAM for detailed transportation service demand is found not consistent with national statistics. Second, the transportation sector simulation results do not properly reflect the past trends of service demand. Thus, the base year service demand is carefully matched with the detailed national statistics. In addition, the existing models were checked and modified so that the simulation results of service demand can accurately reflect past trends of national statistics. As a result, it is reported in detail how the current GCAM simulation results are corrected and how the trend of past transportation sector service demands is properly reflected. This study is expected to be useful as a basic tool for future scenario analysis for transportation policy, technology evaluation and greenhouse gas reduction measures.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.379-387
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• 2008

We proposed models that can implement RFID/USN in terms of teaching-learning part, facility management part, teacher and student management part in primary and secondary school in this study. To support these models in school network, we also proposed a new wired network model and a new wireless network model. A new wired network model is derived from existing wired school network that can apply to all sorts of models presented above. And also a new wireless network model is derived from existing wireless LAN that can solve space restriction problem. We calculated communication bandwidth according to school size and network capacity.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.211-219
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• 2013

This study uses the LEAP model that is a long-term energy analysis model to analyze reduction potential on S city residential sector energy usage for greenhouse gas emission. Energy consumption of S-si in 2009 is consumed most in residential and commerce sector by 39.1%. Also, energy and greenhouse gas emission of residential sector is expected to increase due to increase of households. Therefore, greenhouse gas reduction measures are desperately required in residential sector. For this study recognizes energy consumption of S-si residential sector and has established reduction measure of S-si residential sector greenhouse gas through literature search on domestic and foreign climate change correspondence policies. Also, construction of greenhouse gas reduction potential by reduction measures through LEAP model. There were a total of 5 reduction measures scenarios is Reference Scenario, LED Lighting, Energy Alternative, Green Life Practice, and Total Reduction Measure. As a result, greenhouse gas emission of Light Emitting Diode Lightings by 2020 was $1,181.0thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease of 6.1% compared to the Reference Scenario and Greenhouse gas emission of Energy Alternative by 2020 was $1,171.6thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease of 6.8% compared to the Reference Scenario. Greenhouse gas emission of Green Life Practice by 2020 was $1,128.7thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease of 10.2% compared to the Reference Scenario. For Total Reduction Measures by 2020 emission was $966.9thousand\;tonCO_2eq$, decrease 23.1% compared to Reference Scenario.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.83-92
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• 2014

This paper attempts to conduct a comparative analysis on the economic effects of integrated-energy and manufactured gas supply sectors. To this end, an input-output (I-O) analysis is applied using most recently published 2011 I-O table. In particular, the two sectors are specified as exogeneous to identify the economic effects on own and other sectors. Production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect are quantified based on demand-driven model. Supply shortage effect and price pervasive effect are analyzed employing supply-driven model and Leontief price model, respectively. The results show that production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect of integrated-energy and manufactured gas supply sectors are estimated to be 1.5461 vs. 1.0297, 0.4759 vs. 0.1941, and 2.2885 vs. 0.4053 respectively. Price pervasive effects of the 10% increase in integrated-energy and manufactured gas supply sectors are computed to be 0.0127% and 0.1585%, respectively. This information can be utilized in forecasting the economic effects of introducing integrated-energy or manufactured gas as a heating source and the impacts of a rise in price of integrated-energy or manufactured gas on price level of other sectors.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.203-223
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• 1996

운송부문에서의 이산화탄소 배출량저감을 위한 정책대안을 통합적인 시뮬레이션 모형을 통하여 평가하였다. 분석에 이용된 시뮬레이션 모형은 일본의 국립환경연구소에 의해 개발된 AIM을 일부 수정한 AIM/KOREA이다. 분석의 결과는 다음의 3가지로 정리할 수 있다. 첫째, 기존차량에 비해 가격이 다소 비싸거나 동등한 에너지절약형 차량은 탄소세의 부과없이도 2005년에 가면 신규차량 전부를 대체할 것으로 전망된다. 둘째, 운송부문에서의 에너지 사용량은 앞으로 급격히 증가하고 이에 따라 이산화탄소의 배출량도 크게 증가할 것으로 예측된다. 그러나 이산화탄소의 배출량 감소를 목표로 하는 탄소세부과는 이산화탄소 배출저감에 기여하지 못하는 것으로 전망되었다. 반면에 승용차 10부제의 시행은 이산화탄소배출량의 급격한 증가를 크게 둔화시킬 수 있는 하나의 대안으로 제시되었다. 셋째, 에너지절약형 차량, 특히 전기자동차의 구입자에게 탄소세에 의해 확보된 재원을 이용하여 보조금을 지급하는 것이 운송부문에서 이산화탄소배출량을 줄일 수 있는 하나의 대안으로 평가되었다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.55-103
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• 1999

본 연구의 목적은 외환위기의 주요 파급경로 중 하나인 금융부문의 환율위험 노출현상을 90년대 우리나라의 실제 데이터를 통하여 실증분석함에 있다. 동 연구를 수행함에 있어 장부상 나타나는 회계적 환율위험 대신 간접적인 경제적 위험을 포함하는 포괄적 환율위험을 분석의 대상으로 정의하고, 시장에서 평가되는 금융기관의 기업가치가 환율변동에 얼마나 민감하게 노출되어 있는가를 동 위험의 측정수단으로 채택하였다. 또한 랜덤워크모형과 더불어 일종의 자본자산가격결정모형(CAPM)에 환율위험요인을 추가하여 모형을 구성함으로써 실증분석의 이론적 적합성을 제고하였다. 시장평균환율제도가 채택된 90년 3월부터 최근까지를 표본기간으로 한 실증분석 결과는 다음과 같이 요약가능하다. 첫째, 산업별로는 은행 및 보험산업이 비교적 환율위험에 노출되지 않았던 반면, 종금 및 증권산업은 환율위험에 상대적으로 크게 노출되어 있었으며, 동 노출의 방향은 원화가치의 절하가 금융기관의 시장가치에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 방향으로 노출되어 있었다. 둘째, 종금 및 증권산업의 경우 95년 이전보다는 이후의 시기에 환율위험에 대한 노출도가 유의하게 나타나 90년대 후반기에 가속화된 자본거래 자유화가 이들 금융기관의 환율위험 노출정도를 증가시켰을 가능성을 시사하고 있다. 셋째, 은행 및 종금부문을 대상으로 개별 금융기관 주가의 패널자료를 이용하여 실증분석한 결과, 은행산업 또한 90년대에 걸쳐 환율위험에 유의하게 노출되어 있었던 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 은행부문보다는 종금부문이 노출도의 크기나 통계적 유의도면에서 환율위험에 더욱 노출된 것으로 분석되었다. 넷째, 개별 금융기관의 환율위험 노출도를 추정한 결과 은행부문은 약 19%(상장은행 26사 중 5개), 종금부문은 약 52%(상장종금사 29사 중 15개)가 환율위험에 유의하게 노출되고 있었으며 이들 은행의 절반 이상 그리고 종금사의 대부분이 원화절하가 금융기관 시장가치에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 방향으로 노출되어 있었던 것으로 분석되었다. 동 실증분석 결과는 97년말 급격한 원화가치의 하락이 이들 금융기관, 특히 종금부문의 재무건전성 악화에 치명적인 영향을 끼침으로써 금융위기를 더욱 촉발시키는 한 메커니즘으로 작용하였음을 시사하고 있다.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.538-545
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• 2020

This study measured the economic impact (from 2012 through the end of 2017) of the KOR-USA FTA (Free Trade Agreement) on the Korean citrus industry according to importing orange from the USA after the implementation of the KOR-USA FTA. Citrus fruits were divided into field citrus grown in open fields, house citrus grown in green houses, and late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus) based on the cultivation methods and the varieties of citrus. We specified the structural and dynamic recursive demand-supply equilibrium models of three citrus fruits to analyze policy simulations. The results showed that for field citrus, due to the impact of some amounts of TRQ, the annual average of the real gross revenue dropped by 2.39 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. As for house citrus, due to the impact of oranges and cherries, the annual average of the real gross revenue declined by 3.01 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017, and for late-maturing citrus (including winter season citrus), the annual average of the real gross revenue fell by 15.11 billion KRW between 2012 and 2017. This paper also suggests several policy implications.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.74-82
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• 2014

The government is planning to expand the bio-gas supply as a method for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to deal with climate change. By means of a policy instrument, the government is considering an introduction of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) whose targets include bio-gas. This paper attempts to look into the economic effects of expanding the bio-gas supply by applying an input-output (I-O) analysis using a 2011 I-O table. The bio-gas supply sector consists of liquefied petroleum gas supply sector and city gas supply sector, based on the tenets of introducing the RFS. The production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect of the bio-gas sector are analyzed. The supply shortage effect and the price pervasive effect are also investigated. The results show that the production or investment of 1.0 won in the bio-gas supply sector induces the production of 1.0539 won and the value-added of 0.1998 won in the national economy. Moreover, the production or investment of 1.0 billion won, supply shortage of 1.0 won, and a price increase of 10.0% in the bio-gas supply sector touch off the employment of 0.5279 person, 1.6229 won, and an increase in overall price level by 0.0183%, respectively.