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Development of New Variables Affecting Movie Success and Prediction of Weekly Box Office Using Them Based on Machine Learning (영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과 이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측)

  • Song, Junga;Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2018
  • The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

Analysis of Korean Dietary Patterns using Food Intake Data - Focusing on Kimchi and Alcoholic Beverages (식품섭취량을 활용한 우리나라 식이 패턴 분석 - 김치류 및 주류 중심으로)

  • Kim, Soo-Hwaun;Choi, Jang-Duck;Kim, Sheen-Hee;Lee, Joon-Goo;Kwon, Yu-Jihn;Shin, Choonshik;Shin, Min-Su;Chun, So-Young;Kang, Gil-Jin
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.251-262
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we analyzed Korean dietary habits with food intake data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) and the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and we proposed a set of management guidelines for future Korean dietary habits. A total of 839 food items (1,419 foods) were analyzed according to the food catagories in "Food Code", which is the representative food classification system in Korea. The average total daily food intake was 1,585.77 g/day, with raw and processed foods accounting for 858.96 g/day and 726.81 g/day, respectively. Cereal grains contributed to the highest proportion of the food intake. Over 90% of subjects consumed cereal grains (99.09%) and root and tuber vegetables (95.80%) among the top 15 consumed food groups. According to the analysis by item, rice, Korean cabbage kimchi, apple, radish, egg, chili pepper, onion, wheat, soybean curds, potato, cucumber and pork were major (at least 1% of the average daily intake, 158.6 g/day) and frequently (eaten by more than 25% of subjects, 5,168 persons) consumed food items, and Korean spices were at the top of this list. In the case of kimchi, the proportion of intake of Korean cabbage kimchi (64.89 g/day) was the highest. In the case of alcoholic beverages, intake was highest by order of beer (63.53 g/day), soju (39.11 g/day) and makgeolli (19.70 g/day), and intake frequency was high in order of soju (11.3%), beer (7.2%), and sake (6.6%). Analysis results by seasonal intake trends showed that cereal grains have steadily decreased and beverages have slightly risen. In the case of alcoholic beverage consumption frequency, some kinds of makgeolli, wine, sake, and black raspberry wine have decreased gradually year by year. The consumption trend for kimchi has been gradually decreasing as well.

Overview of Major Oil Spill at Sea and Details of Various Response Actions -1. Number and Volume of Marine Oil Spills in Korea and in the World (대형 기름유출사고와 방제조치에 관한 연구 -1. 국내외 해양기름오염사고 건수와 유출량)

  • Kim, Kwang-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 2013
  • In order to obtain quantitative basic data for marine oil pollution prevention, the statistics of oil spill incidents in Korea and in the world for 20 years from 1993 to 2012 were collected and analyzed with relation to the number of oil spills and the amount of oil spilt. In Korea for 20 years, total number and average annual number of oil spills were 6,608 cases and nearly 330 cases/year, respectively, and total volume and average annual volume of oils spilt were 57,328 kL and nearly 2,866 kL/year, respectively. Due to major oil spills from oil tankers, annual volumes of oils spilt in Korea were sharply increased to 15,388 kL in 1993, 15,773 kL in 1995, 3,428 kL in 1997 and 13,008 kL in 2007. In case of worldwide oil spills for 20 years, total number and average annual number of oil spills of 8 kL (or 7 tonnes) and above were 420 cases and 21 cases/year, respectively, and total amount and average annual amount of oils spilt 8 kL (or 7 tonnes) and above were about 800,000 kL (or 704,000 tonnes) and about 40,000 kL/year (or 35,200 tonnes/year), respectively. Major oil spills from oil tankers increased massively annual amounts of oils spilt worldwide to about 159,000 kL (or 140,000 tonnes) in 1993, about 147,600 kL (or 130,000 tonnes) in 1994, about 90,900 kL (80,000 tonnes) in 1996, about 81,800 kL (72,000 tonnes) in 1997 and about 76,100 kL (or 67,000 tonnes) in 2002. Obvious correlation between annual number of oil spills and annual amount of oil spilt was not found in both Korea and the world, while both annual number and annual volume tended to decrease with the lapse of year in both Korea and the world, though there were wide fluctuations from year to year in both annual number of oil spills and annual amount of oils spilt worldwide and in Korea for 20 years. From 2008 to 2012 worldwide, there were sharp decreases in both annual number and annual amount of oil spills. In particular, no oil spill of 800 kL (or 700 tonnes) and above occurred in the year of 2012.

Electrode Characteristics of K+ Ion-Selective PVC Membrane Electrodes with AC Impedance Spectrum (AC 임피던스 분석법을 이용한 K+ 이온선택성 PVC막 전극 특성)

  • Kim, Yong-Ryul;An, Hyung-Hwan;Kang, An-Soo
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.870-877
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    • 1998
  • With impedance spectrum measurements, impedance was studied in the interface between sample solutions for $K^+-ion$ selective PVC membrane electrode containing neutral carriers [dibenzo-18-crown-6 (D18Cr6) and valinomycine (Val)]. Response characteristics of electrode were examined by measuring AC impedance spectra that were resulted from the chemical structure and the content of carrier, variation of plasticizer, membrane thickness, doping of base electrolytes, and concentration variation of sample solution. Transport characteristics of PVC membrane electrode were also studied. It was found that the equivalent circuit for the membrane in $K^+$ solution could be expressed by a series combination of solution resistance and a parallel circuit consisting of the bulk resistance and geometric capacitance of the membrane system. But the charge transfer resistance and Warburg resistance were overlapped a little in the low concentration and low frequency ranges. The carrier, D18Cr6 was best for electrode and impedance characteristics, and ideal electrode characteristics were appeared especially in case of doping of the base electrolyte[potassium tetraphenylborate(TPB)]. The optimum carrier content was about 3.23 wt% in case of D18Cr6 and Val. DBP was best as a plasticizer. As membrane thickness decreased the impedance characteristics was improved, but electrode characteristics were lowered for membrane thickness below the optimum. In the case of D18Cr6, the selectivity coefficients by the mixed solution method for the $K^+$ ion were the order of $NH_4{^+}>Ca^{2+}>Mg^{2+}>Na^+$.

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Mapping and Assessment of Forest Biomass Resources in Korea (우리나라 산림 바이오매스 자원량 평가 및 지도화)

  • Son, Yeong Mo;Lee, Sun Jeoung;Kim, Sowon;Hwang, Jeong Sun;Kim, Raehyun;Park, Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.103 no.3
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    • pp.431-438
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    • 2014
  • This study was conducted to assess forest biomass resource which is a carbon sink and a renewable resource in Korea. The total forest biomass resource potential was 804 million tons, and conifers, broadleaved forest and mixed forest accounted for 265 million tons, 282 million tons, and 257 million tons, respectively. Proportionately to regional forest stocks, biomass potential of Gangwon-do had most biomass potential, followed by Gyeongsangbuk-do and Gyeongsangnam-do. The woody biomass from the byproduct of sawn timber in commercial harvesting was 707 thousand ton/year, and that from the byproduct of forest tending was 592 thousand ton/year. The amount resulted in about 1,300 thousand ton/year of potential supplies from forest biomass resource into the energy market. It's tonnage of oil equivalent(toe) was 585 thousand ton/year. In this study, we developed a program (BiomassMap V2.0) for forest biomass resource mapping. Used system to develop this program was Microsoft Office Excel, Microsoft Office Access ArcGIS and Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0. Additionally, This program made use of tool such as ESRI MapObjects2.1 in order to take advantage of spatial information. This program shows the map of total biomass stock, annual biomass growth at forest land in Korea, and biomass production from forest tending and commercial harvesting. The information can also be managed by the program. The biomass resource map can be identified by regional and forest type for the purpose of utilization. So, we expect the map and program to be very useful for forest managers in the near future.

Analysis of Structural Types and Design Factors for Fruit Tree Greenhouses (과수재배용 온실의 구조유형과 설계요소 분석)

  • Nam, Sang-Woon;Ko, Gi-Hyuk
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.27-33
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    • 2013
  • In order to provide basic data for the development of a controlled environment cultivation system and standardization of the structures, structural status and improvement methods were investigated for the fruit tree greenhouses of grape, pear, and peach. The greenhouses for citrus and grape cultivation are increasing while pear and persimmon greenhouses are gradually decreasing due to the advance of storage facilities. In the future, greenhouse cultivation will expand for the fruit trees which are more effective in cultivation under rain shelter and are low in storage capability. Fruit tree greenhouses were mostly complying with standards of farm supply type models except for a pear greenhouse and a large single-span peach greenhouse. It showed that there was no greenhouse specialized in each species of fruit tree. Frame members of the fruit tree greenhouses were mostly complying with standards of the farm supply type model or the disaster tolerance type model published by MIFAFF and RDA. In most cases, the concrete foundations were used. The pear greenhouse built with the column of larger cross section than the disaster tolerance type. The pear greenhouse had also a special type of foundation with the steel plate welded at the bottom of columns and buried in the ground. As the results of the structural safety analysis of the fruit tree greenhouses, the grape greenhouses in Gimcheon and Cheonan and the peach greenhouses in Namwon and Cheonan appeared to be vulnerable for snow load whereas the peach greenhouse in Namwon was not safe enough to withstand wind load. The peach greenhouse converted from a vegetable growing facility turned out to be unsafe for both snow and wind loads. Considering the shape, height and planting space of fruit tree, the appropriate size of greenhouses was suggested that the grape greenhouse be 7.0~8.0 m wide and 2.5~2.8 m high for eaves, while 6.0~7.0 m wide and 3.0~3.3 m of eaves height for the pear and peach greenhouses.

Evaluation of Effective and Organ Dose Using PCXMC Program in DUKE Phantom and Added Filter for Computed Radiography System (CR 환경에서의 흉부촬영 시 Duke Phantom과 부가여과를 이용한 유효선량 및 장기선량 평가)

  • Kang, Byung-Sam;Park, Min-Joo;Kim, Seung-Chul
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2014
  • By using a Chest Phantom(DUKE Phantom) focusing on dose reduction of diagnostic radiation field with the most use of artificial radiation, and attempt to reduce radiation dose studies technical radiation. Publisher of the main user of the X-ray Radiological technologists, Examine the effect of reducing the radiation dose to apply additional filtering of the X-ray generator. In order to understand the organ dose and effective dose by using the PC-Based Monte Carlo Program(PCXMC) Program, the patient receives, was carried out this research. In this experiment, by applying a complex filter using a copper and Al(aluminum,13) and filtered single of using only aluminum with the condition set, and measures the number of the disk of copper indicated by DUKE Phantom. The combination of the composite filtration and filtration of a single number of the disk of the copper is the same, with the PCXMC 2.0. Program looking combination of additional filtration fewest absorbed dose was calculated effective dose and organ dose. Although depends on the use mAs, The 80 kVp AP projection conditions, it is possible to reduce the effective amount of about 84 % from about 30 % to a maximum at least. The 120 kVp PA projection conditions, it is possible to reduce the effective amount of about 71 % from about 41 % to a maximum of at least. The organ dose, dose reduction rate was different in each organ, but it showed a decrease of dose rate of 30 % to up 100 % at least. Additional filtration was used on the imaging conditions throughout the study. There was no change in terms of video quality at low doses. It was found that using the DUKE Phantom and PCXMC 2.0 Program were suitable to calculate the effect of reducing the effective dose and organ dose.

Selection of Filamentous Cyanobacteria and Optimization of Culture Condition for Recycling Waste Nutrient Solution (폐양액 활용을 위한 Filamentous Cyanobacteria의 선발 및 최적배양)

  • Yang, Jin-Chul;Chung, Hee-Kyung;Lee, Hyoung-Seok;Choi, Seung-Ju;Yun, Sang-Soon;Ahn, Ki-Sup;Sa, Tong-Min
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.177-183
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    • 2004
  • The discharge of waste nutrient solution from greenhouse to natural ecosystem leads to the accumulation of excess nutrients that results in contamination or eutrophication. There is a need to recycle the waste nutrient solution in order to prevent the environmental hazards. The amount and kind of nutrients in waste nutrient solution might be enough to grow photosynthetic microorganisms. Hence in the present study, we examined the growth and mass cultivation of cyanobacteria in the waste nutrient solution with an objective of removing N and P and concomitantly, its mass cultivation. Four photosynthetic filamentous cyanobacteria (Anabaena HA101, HA701 and Nostoc HN601, HN701) isolated from composts and soils of the Chungnam province were used as culture strains. Among the isolates, Nostoc HN601 performed faster growth rate and higher N and P uptake in the BG-II ($NO_3{^-}$) medium when compared to those of other cyanobacterial strains. Finally, the selected isolate was tested under optimum conditions (airflow at the rate of $1L\;min^{-1}$. in 15 L reactor, initial pH 8) in waste nutrient solution from tomato hydroponic in green house condition. Results showed to remove 100% phosphate from the waste nutrient solution in the tomato hydroponics recorded over a period of 7 days. The growth rate of Nostoc HN601 was $16mg\;Chl-a\;L^{-1}$ in the waste nutrient solution from tomato hydroponics with optimum condition, whereas growth rate of Nostoc HN601 was only $9.8mg\;Chl-a\;L^{-1}$ in BG-11 media. Nitrogen fixing capacity of Nostoc HN601 was $20.9nmol\;C_2H_4\;mg^{-1}\;Chl-a\;h^{-1}$ in N-free BG-11. The total nitrogen and total phosphate concentration of Nostoc HN601 were 63.3 mg N gram dry weight $(GDW)^{-1}$ and $19.1mg\;P\;GDW^{-1}$ respectively. Collectively, cyanobacterial mass production using waste nutrient solution under green house condition might be suitable for recycling and cleaning of waste nutrient solution from hydroponic culture system. Biomass of cyanobacteria, cultivated in waste nutrient solution, could be used as biofertilizer.

A study on the Physical, Mental and Social Factors Influencing the Health Status of Aged Women in Korea (여성노인의 건강상태와 신체적.심리적.사회적 요소들과의 관계연구)

  • Ro, Seung-Ok
    • Women's Health Nursing
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.53-67
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    • 1996
  • A total health state evaluation of Korean female elderlies was made by using the questionary scheme measuring the physical, mental and social functions of the elderlies, in order to investigate the critical factors for the health maintenance of female elderlies and to develop their preventive nursing program. A total of 280 subjects over 65 years old living in Seoul and the suburban area were selected and interviewed during the period of September and October in 1995. The materials collected were analyzed statistically by using SAS data processing program, and the results and recommendations are summarized as follows. 1. The physical health state of Korean elderly women was evaluated to be satisfactory by showing an average score of 3.722 in 5.0 full-score scale. But this score was lower than those evaluated for the elderlies combined both sexes(4.054). The mental health state of the subjects was also evaluated as high scoring 3.484, possibly due to the fact that 78% of the subjects lived together with their children's family. On the other hand, the social health state of the subjects was relatively low scoring 2.585, mainly due to that 80% of them was widows which was resulted by the 6-7 years longer life-expectancy of Korean women. 2. A significant differences in the physical health state scores between different age groups was observed, indicating the rapid ageing process occurring in this age group. The family structure was appeared to be an important factor influencing the physical health state of the female elderlies ; the physical health score of the women with her husband only was higher than that of those living with children's families, and the lowest score was obtained from those living alone. 3. The age was the most important factor determining the mental health state of the subjects, while the religion, educational status, marriage state and family structure did not significantly influenced the mental health state of the aged women. 4. The social health state of the subject was deeply influenced by the marriage state and family structure, showing significantly lower scores with widowers compared to the married couples. Those living with their married spouse only obtained the highest social health score, while those living along showed the lowest score. The parent and grandparentship of those living with their children and the religion, especially Catholic and Protestant, had positive influence on the social health state of the aged women. 5. The mental health state of aged women showed significant correlation with the factors determining the physical health, except for digestive system related ability and sexual ability and the highest extra home ability. 6. The mental health state of aged women showed significant correlation with the factors determining social health, especially with the parent and grandparentship and the family relative's role. From these results, the following recommendations are made. 1. Since the physical, mental and social health states of aged people are deeply influenced by the sex and the average values of the both sex can create misleading figures, the health evaluation of the elderlies should be made separately by sex. 2. Since the health state of aged women is highly influenced by their family structure, the spouse's role and living with married couple only should be emphasized in respect of preventive health care. 3. The social activity programs and grandparentship teaching programs should be prepared in the nursing care program for aged people.

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Effects of Macrophytes on Budget of Matters in Lake Paldang (대형수생식물이 팔당호의 물질 수지에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Hae-Kyung;Jung, Dong-Il;Byeon, Myeong-Seop
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.39 no.1 s.115
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2006
  • To evaluate the primary production and nutrient uptake of macrophytes in Lake Paldang, this study investigate the vegetation areas of six dominant aquatic plants including Typha angustifolia, Zizania latifolia, Phragmites australis, Trapa japonica, Nelumbo nucifera and Savinia natans, and contents of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus of each macrophyte. Total vegetation area of six dominant aquatic plants was 1.37 $km^2$. Among them, Typha angustifolia was the most wide-distributed species which occupied the 46.7% of total vegetation area. Littoral zone of South Han river had the largest vegetation area with 0.458 $km^2$, and North Han river, Kyungan river and confluence area in the order named. The results of the contents of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus of macrophytes showed that the carbon contents of emergent macrophytes was higher than that of other life-forms. The nitrogen content of Salvinia natans, free-floating macrophyte was highest and that of Typha angustifolia, emergent macrophyte was lowest. The phosphorus content of Trapa japonica showed the highest content of phosphorus among six macrophytes and emergent macrophytes such as Zizania latifolia and Phragmites australis showed lower contents of phosphorus than other life-forms. The annual net primary production of macrophytes in Lake Paldang, 2004, was calculated as 758.4 ton C $yr^{-1}$ and the annual net nitrogen and phosphorus uptake of macrophyte was 16,921 kg $yr^{-1}$ and 1,841.0 kg P $yr^{-1}$ respectively. Comparing the total budget of organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in Lake Paldang, the amount of primary production and nutrient uptake by macrophytes take a small portion in total budget implying macrophytes do not play an important role in budget of matters in river-type lake, Lake Paldang.