• Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.1-13
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• 2019

This study examines the impact of factors that affect Hollywood movies' box office performance, using a sample of 149 movies that were ranked number 1 on the first week of release between 2014 and 2018. Such factors as production budget, the number of opening screens, the valence and volume of both critics and netizens, rating, distributor's power, remake, high season, genre are introduced to analyze box office performance. The result shows that the determinants of the US box office and the total box office are different. Considering the difference in budget by genre, the number of opening screens is not influential in the US box office performance of all genres with production budget of less than $100 million. The result suggests the need to refine more elaborated models for future research on box office performance.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.23-31
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to find the factors of the box office record in Korean popular music. For this purpose, 1.239 musics were selected in the Gaon digital weekly album chart from second week July 2013 to first week July 2014. The result can be summarized as follows: First, entertainment of music company, distribution of music company, singer, OST(Original Sound Track), television show, SNS and high ranking in the first week of its release are the factors of the box office record in Korean popular music. Second, entertainment of a large number of music production company is more effective than the others, but there is no difference in the case of distribution music company. Third, musics of singers who have large number of music ranked Gaon digital chart and appearance of television show program are effective in the box office record in Korean popular music. Fourth, SNS are great factors to promote Korean popular music. Fifth, it is important to rank high position in the first week of its release.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.96-105
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• 2016

This study examined determinants of movie success from foreign countries except the U.S. in Korea. This research is based on analyses of data based on 500 movies between 2004 and 2013. The major results are following; firstly, in terms of movie success, there were significant differences among three attributes including the origin of countries, genres and distributors. Although determinants of movie success from Japan were animation genre and major distributors, they were action genre and major distributors for European countries. Determinants of movie success from other countries was only animation genre. However, there were no any explanation factions for Chinese movies.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2016.10a
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• pp.556-558
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• 2016

영화 흥행 실패의 리스크를 줄이기 위해 객관적인 흥행 예측 지표가 요구된다. 본 논문에서는 영화 스크립트의 텍스트를 분석하여 흥행성과를 예측하는 기법을 제안한다. 객관적인 흥행 예측 지표는 누적 관객 수와 누적 매출액으로 설정하였다. 실험은 2010년 1월 1일부터 2016년 8월까지 개봉한 영화중에서 누적 관객 수와 누적 매출액을 기준으로 상위 50위까지의 영화 스크립트를 분석하여 진행했다. 실험을 통해 영화 제작에 앞서 스크립트 분석만을 활용한 영화 흥행성과 예측이 가능함을 보였다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.441-452
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• 2013

This study analyzed the relationship between key film and a box office record success factors based on movies released in the first quarter of 2013 in Korea. An over-fitting problem can happen if there are too many explanatory variables inserted to regression model; in addition, there is a risk that the estimator is instable when there is multi-collinearity among the explanatory variables. For this reason, optimal variable selection based on high explanatory variables in box-office performance is of importance. Among the numerous ways to select variables, LASSO estimation applied by a generalized linear model has the smallest prediction error that can efficiently and quickly find variables with the highest explanatory power to box-office performance in order.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.381-393
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• 2010

The purpose of this research is to identify the different determinants according to the types of motion pictures; art film and commercial film. We found that the regression equations of two types of motions pictures are structurally different. More specifically, we identified that the number of screens, viewers' evaluation, and genres have a significant relationship with the performance of motion pictures both in the commercial and art film. However, director, ratings, critics, power of agency, nationality, and the timing of release affect the performance of motion pictures just on the art films.

• Cartoon and Animation Studies
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• s.16
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• pp.21-32
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• 2009

This study provides an empirical analysis of box office performance for animation movies released in Korea between 2003 and 2008. Two dependent variables are both the number of audiences in the whole country and the number of audiences in Seoul. Such independent variables are employed : power of distributors, the number of screens, release time, sequel/remake, awards, film ratings, nationality, online reviews, and critics' reviews. For the total number of audiences in the whole country, significant variables are the number of screens, the power of USA distributors, Summer release, and online reviews. Since there is no analysis for box office performance for animation movies released in Korean theaters, this study will be considered to be meaningful.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.859-869
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• 2011

Interest has increased in academic research regarding key factors that drive box-office success as well as the ability to predict the box-office success of a movie from a commercial perspective. This study analyzed the relationship between key success factors of a movie and box office records based on movies released in 2010 in Korea. At the pre-production investment decision-making stage, the movie genre, motion picture rating, director power, and actor power were statistically significant. At the stage of distribution decision-making process after movie production, among other factors, the influence of star actors, number of screens, power of distributors, and social media turned out to be statistically significant. We verified movie success factors through the application of a Multinomial Logit Model that used the concept of choice probabilities. The Multinomial Logit Model resulted in a higher level of accuracy in predicting box-office success compared to the Artificial Neural Network and Discriminant Analysis.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.221-229
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• 2020

This study aims to find out predictors of a movie's eventual box office, focusing on a movie's box office rank on an opening day. For an empirical analysis, I use data of 794 commercial movies released in the Korean theatrical exhibition market during the recent five years(2013~2017). The regression analysis shows that being box office number one on an opening day has statistically significant impact on a movie's final box office. A movie's quality, measured by audience's review, does not give significant impact on top1 movie's final success. Indexes such as increase of showing number on Sunday are strongly related to a movie's economic success. The additional analysis on box office number one movie on an opening day, totally 158 movies, finds that box office growth rate on a second week is strongly related to a movie's final success. Lastly, correlation coefficient of a movie's opening day box office and final box office does not show consistent growth when the coefficient is compared yearly. This study might have meaning in that it proposes new box office predictors and shows the relation of the indexes and a movie's final performance empirically.

• Review of Culture and Economy
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.105-128
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• 2017

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of distributors on the movie exhibition by distributor types. For the analysis, the concept 'screen elasticity of box office' is adopted. Using the weekly screening data of 94 hit movies released in Korea in 2014 and 2015, the panel analysis estimates the 'screen elasticity of box office' with the Hausman-Taylor estimator. The results show that the screen elasticity of box office is smaller for vertically integrated distributors(CJ E&M and Lotte Entertainment) and Hollywood distributors than the local distributors(Showbox and NEW) that do not own integrated cinemas. This means that exhibitors allocate a larger number of screens to vertically integrated distributors and Hollywood distributors. As the two distributor groups had higher market share during the period, the results imply that the screen elasticity is related to the market performance of distributors. Smaller screen elasticity of the vertically integrated distributors might be related not to the ownership to theaters but to higher market share of the distributors.