• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.603-620
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• 2015

The National Pension of Korea is a public social security system designed to alleviate social risks and poverty that has had a major impact on the quality of life for the aging population. However, a rapidly aging population and low fertility threaten the sustainability of national pension in Korea. The National Pension Research Institute publishes a nancial projection every ve years; consequently, the government has lowered the entitlements for the sustainability of national pension based on the projection results. The current reform of the pension system that arbitrarily reduces the entitlements might detract from the income security role of the national pension for pensioners without accounting for the highest elderly poverty rate in the OECD countries. We first discuss methods for the financial projection of the national pension in terms of population, subscribers, and pensioner projections in order to estimate the pension reserve fund and the financial depletion year. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis for population variables, institutional variables, and economic variables based on pension reserves and the financial depletion year. We evaluate intergenerational fairness between the income hierarchy by conducting a money's worth analysis. Finally, we investigate the possibility of the sustainability of national pension by adjusting pension contributions and entitlements (income replacement rate). A new dependency ratio shows that a simple reform of the national pension does not secure the sustainability of the national pension without adapting a pay-as-you-go system.