• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.943-955
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• 2017

We investigate and estimate the causal effect of the survey methods in telephone surveys for the 19th presidential election. For this causal study, we draw a causal graph that represents the causal relationship between variables. Then we decide which variables should be included in the model and which variables should not be. We explain why the research agency is a should-be variable and the response rate is a shouldnot-be variable. The effect of ARS can not be estimated due to data limitations. We have found that there is no significant difference in the effect of the proportion of cell phone survey if it is less than about 90 percent. But the support rate for Moon Jae-in gets higher if the survey is performed only by cell phones.

• Informatization Policy
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.3-24
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• 2019

This study examined the trends and issues of social media campaign studies from three aspects-campaign strategy, institutional environment regulating the social media, and political effect. Then, this study performed an empirical analysis on the case of the 20th general election in order to discuss the political effect, which has been analyzed the least. Specifically, this study empirically examined the trends of candidates' participation in the twitter campaign, the partial mobilization and voter response, and the platform effect on the election results. The study examined all of the candidates' twitter accounts and traffic and found the following results.-first, the number of participants in the twitter campaign increased significantly compared to the 19th general election, and the campaign was dominated by only two political parties that had more power to mobilize resources; second, it was clearly identified that twitter is a partisan media. where specifically, those in the mainstream of the Democratic Party mobilized much more supporters; and lastly, the twitter campaign has a positive impact on the increase in the rate of votes and chances of winning the election. Particularly, the number of followers and the duration of activities were found statistically meaningful, proving that promotion of networking and social capital is more important in election campaigns.