• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.367-382
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• 2018

Prediction models for a corporate bond rating in existing studies have been developed using various models such as linear regression, ordered logit, and random forest. Financial characteristics help build prediction models that are expected to be contained in the assigning model of the bond rating agencies. However, the ranges of bond ratings in existing studies vary from 5 to 20 and the prediction models were developed with samples in which the target companies and the observation periods are different. Thus, a simple comparison of the prediction accuracies in each study cannot determine the best prediction model. In order to conduct a fair comparison, this study has collected corporate bond ratings and financial characteristics from 2013 to 2017 and applied prediction models to them. In addition, we applied the elastic-net penalty for the linear regression, the ordered logit, and the ordered probit. Our comparison shows that data-driven variable selection using the elastic-net improves prediction accuracy in each corresponding model, and that the random forest is the most appropriate model in terms of prediction accuracy, which obtains 69.6% accuracy of the exact rating prediction on average from the 5-fold cross validation.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.175-182
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to test whether credit rating agencies highly evaluate the credit ratings of corporate bonds based upon management participation and ownership share by family governance in ownership structure forms. The samples of this study for empirical analysis were 1,449 non-financial companies listed on Korean Exchange from 2011 to 2016, over whose firm/year data this study conducted regression analysis. The results of empirical analysis in this study are as follows. First, family businesses had positive effects on the evaluation of corporate credit ratings. Second, if the ownership share of family businesses was higher, corporate credit ratings were higher. This result means that high ownership share in family businesses has very positive effects on the credit ratings of related businesses. It is meaningful that this study tested the effect that family businesses can alleviate agency problems and reduce information asymmetry. Furthermore, it is also academically meaningful that this study can contribute to future studies on the role of ownership structure.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.139-150
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• 2017

Open economy tightly works with foreign economy. This paper investigates the effect of the shock of foreign bond yield on the credit spreads of domestic corporate bonds in Korea. Foreign bond is referred to as US treasury bond. Credit spreads are defined with the difference between log yields of domestic corporate bonds and log yield of Korea treasury bond. With the data of monthly three-year AA- and BBB- corporate bond yields- ratings, monthly three-year Korean treasury bond yields, monthly US dollar foreign exchange rates, and monthly three-year US Treasury bond yields during the period from October 2000 to September 2014 including global financial crisis period, the paper documents the results as follow. First of all, the yield of Korean treasury and the credit spreads are very sensitive to the increase in the level and the volatility of the yield of the US treasury bond. Changes in the level and the volatility little affect the change of the exchange rate. Second, the change in the level and the volatility negatively affect the level of Korean treasury bond yields but lead to the increase in the level of Korean treasury bond yields at the same time. Third, there exist time lags of the increases of credit spreads by the increase in the level and the volatility. These imply that credit spreads and bond yields are very sensitive to the change in the yields of foreign bonds such as US treasury bond.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.27-55
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• 2001

본 연구는 기업의 부채만기와 결정요인의 관련성에 대한 이론적 논거를 제시하고 우리나라 상장제조기업을 대상으로 대기업과 중소기업으로 구분하여 기업규모별 부채만기 결정요인을 다중회귀분석으로 실증적으로 규명하고자 하였다. 실증적 분석 대상기간은 1995년부터 2000년까지 6개년으로 분석기간 동안 신용평가 전문기관으로부터 회사채 신용등급을 평가받은 제조기업 204개 기업을 표본으로 선정하여 분석하였다. 연구결과를 종합하면 우리나라 상장제조기업으로 대기업과 중소기업 모두 기업규모가 크고 레버리지가 높고 자산의 만기가 긴 고정자산을 많이 보유하고 있는 기업일수록 부채만기구조에서 장기부채를 많이 이용하고 있는 것으로 입증되었다. 성장옵션과 법인세율은 부채만기결정에 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 나타났으며 기업의 우량성과 유동성위험을 나타내는 수익증가율과 채권등급은 대기업의 주요 부채만기 결정요인으로 나타났다. 수익증가율이 크고 채권신용등급이 높은 우량대기업일수록 단기부채를 많이 이용하는 것으로 확인되었으며 중소기업은 기업의 우량성과 신용등급이 부채만기에 유의적인 영향을 미치지 않았다.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.93-118
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• 2005

This paper examines credit spreads in Korea corporate market using one of structural models, the mean reverting leverage ratio model (Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001)). Compared to the actual credit spreads, we show that the credit spreads induced by the model are overpredicted. We also investigate the systematic errors that cause the over-pre-diction of credit spreads using the t-test. We show that the systematic errors are affected by the current leverage ratio and asset volatility.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.56-89
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• 2011

The sensitivity of investment with respect to cash flow is positive in imperfect financial markets. Using a switching regression model, cash flow sensitivity of investments in chaebol firms and large firms appears to be higher. Also, investments are found to be more responsive to cash flow during monetary contraction periods. These findings imply that monetary policy works through a credit channel. Furthermore, it appears that monetary policy exerts distributional effects as well as aggregate effects on that firms are unevenly affected by monetary changes.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.81-90
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• 2016

This study aims to investigate the association between stock performance and credit ratings, and credit rating changes using a sample of 1,691 KRX firm-years that acquire equity in the form of long-term bonds from 2002 to 2013. Previous U.S. literature is mixed with regard to the relation between credit ratings and stock price. On one hand, there is evidence of a positive relation between credit ratings and stock prices, an anomaly established in U.S. studies. On the other hand, the CAPM model suggests a negative relation between stock prices and credit ratings, implying that investors expect financial rewards for bearing additional risk. To our knowledge, we are the first to examine the relationship between stock price and default risk proxied by credit ratings in period t+1. We find a negative (positive) relation between credit ratings (risk) in period t+1 and stock returns in period t, suggesting that credit rating agencies do not consider stock returns as a metric with the potential to influence default risk. Our results suggest that market participants may prefer firms with higher credit risk because of expected higher returns.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.1-47
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• 2006

Even after significant changes in the financial market due to the financial crisis the corporate debt markets have seen created turmoil caused such as by Daewoo, Hyundai, and credit card companies in the financial system. These lagging improvements of corporate debt markets are mainly due to inadequate market infrastructure. Specifically, the credit rating agencies have not been successful in providing proper and timely information on the loan repayment abilities of debtors. This study analyzes past performance of credit rating agencies in Korea and tries to develop policy implications to improve the role of credit rating agencies based on the recent discussions on credit rating agencies by academics and the SEC. In addition, this study focuses on unique operation environments of Korean credit rating agencies, which have kept credit rating agencies from providing fair, timely, and useful information. To warrant proper operation of credit rating agencies, it is essential to cope with unique problems in Korean credit rating agencies. We classify the unique problems of Korean credit rating agencies into ownership and governance structure, conflict of interests due to ancillary fee-based business, legal recognition of credit rating in the court, and code of conduct problem, etc. and propose policy directions to improve the quality and credibility of credit ratings.

• JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL WORLD
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• s.354
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• pp.56-75
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• 2006

“현행 CBP 방식을 유지하되, 송전비용 등 시장가격 반영”/ 한-일 전력계통 신뢰도 향상 위한 기술 협력 강화/ 전력산업에 대-중소기업「상생펀드」출범/ 한전, 레바논 현지법인 개설/ 한국수력원자력 울진본부, “한국 표준형 개량연료 PLUS 7”최초 장전행사 가져/ 중부발전, PL<제조물안전>혁신활동 지원/ 동서발전, LS산전과 기술협약 체결/ 서부발전, 2006년 국제표준시스템 경영상 대상 수상/ 남부발전, 중소기업 해외판로 개척에 앞장/ 남동발전, UN 『Global Compact』협약 체결/ 현대중공업, 미국 IEEE PES 2006 전시회 및 일본 전설공업전 참가/ 한신평, 포스코파워 회사채 신용등급 AA+(안정적)으로 상향/ 신고유가‘항구적오일쇼크’단계왔나/

• 월간 기계설비
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• s.284
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• pp.60-64
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• 2014

불공정 하도급거래 행위로 인한 회원사의 피해방지를 위해 대한설비건설협회는 국토부, 공정위, 국회 등에 지속적으로 제도개선을 추진한 결과 지난해 6월 국토부, 기재부, 공정위 등 5개 부처 합동 국가정책조정회의에서 '건설산업 불공정 거래관행 개선방안'이 발표됐다. 그 후속조치로 지난 2월, 하도급부당특약 설정금지를 비롯해 보증기관의 하도급대금지급보증금 지급사유 법제화, 하도급대금지급보증서 면제대상(2개 이상 신용평가 기관의 회사채평가 A이상 등급업체) 삭제 등 관련 법령이 개정됐다.