• Title/Summary/Keyword: 회귀 모형 함수

Search Result 294, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

A study on the relationship between the onshore and offshore Chinese Yuan markets (중국 역내·외 위안화 현물시장간의 상호 연계성 연구)

  • Lee, Woosik;Chun, Heuiju
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.26 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1387-1395
    • /
    • 2015
  • Since the financial crisis of 2008, the People's Republic of China has aggressively been pursuing the internationalization of the Chinese Yuan or Renminbi. In this regard, rapidly increasing use of the Chinese Yuan in the onshore and offshore markets are important milestones. This paper analyzes relationship between the onshore and offshore Chinese Yuan spot markets. Major findings of this paper are as follows : First, there is full feedback relationship between the Onshore and Offshore Chinese Yuan Markets. Second, the difference between the yuan's offshore exchange rate and the onshore was getting tight. Third, the offshore Yuan market affects on the onshore market based on the empirical tests.

The Study for Estimating Traffic Volumes on Urban Roads Using Spatial Statistic and Navigation Data (공간통계기법과 내비게이션 자료를 활용한 도시부 도로 교통량 추정연구)

  • HONG, Dahee;KIM, Jinho;JANG, Doogik;LEE, Taewoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.35 no.3
    • /
    • pp.220-233
    • /
    • 2017
  • Traffic volumes are fundamental data widely used in various traffic analysis, such as origin-and-destination establishment, total traveled kilometer distance calculation, congestion evaluation, and so on. The low number of links collecting the traffic-volume data in a large urban highway network has weakened the quality of the analyses in practice. This study proposes a method to estimate the traffic volume data on a highway link where no collection device is available by introducing a spatial statistic technique with (1) the traffic-volume data from TOPIS, and National Transport Information Center in the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and (2) the navigation data from private navigation. Two different component models were prepared for the interrupted and the uninterrupted flows respectively, due to their different traffic-flow characteristics: the piecewise constant function and the regression kriging. The comparison of the traffic volumes estimated by the proposed method against the ones counted in the field showed that the level of error includes 6.26% in MAPE and 5,410 in RMSE, and thus the prediction error is 20.3% in MAPE.

Model Tests on the Characteristics of Lateral Behavior of Steel Pipe Pile in Homogeneous and Nonhomogeneous Soil Conditions (균질 지반과 비균질 지반에서 강관 모형말뚝의 수평거동 특성에 관한 모형실험)

  • 김병탁;김영수
    • Geotechnical Engineering
    • /
    • v.14 no.6
    • /
    • pp.153-166
    • /
    • 1998
  • This paper shows the results of a series of model tests on the behavior of steel pipe pile which is subjected to lateral and inclined loads in homogeneous and non-homogeneous Nak-dong River sands. Non-homogeneous soil consisted of two layers, upper and lower layer. The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the effect of ratio of lower layer height to embedded pile length, ratio of soil modules of upper layer to lower layer and inclined load on the behavior of single pile. These effects can be quantified only by the results of model tests. As a result. in non-homogeneous sand soil, it is shown that the lateral behavior depends upon the ratio of soil modules of upper layer to lower layer more than other factors. And it was found that the relationship between the deflection ratio of non-homogeneous sand to homogeneous sand and the ratio of lower layer height to embedded pile length can be fitted to exponential function of H/L by model tests results. For the inclined load applied, it is shown that the bending moment-depth relationship is not similar to the case of laterally loaded pile and the depth of maximum bending moment at relative density of 90% increases about 70% more than the pile only loaded laterally.

  • PDF

Seasonal Trend of Elevation Effect on Daily Air Temperature in Korea (일별 국지기온 결정에 미치는 관측지점 표고영향의 계절변동)

  • 윤진일;최재연;안재훈
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.3 no.2
    • /
    • pp.96-104
    • /
    • 2001
  • Usage of ecosystem models has been extended to landscape scales for understanding the effects of environmental factors on natural and agro-ecosystems and for serving as their management decision tools. Accurate prediction of spatial variation in daily temperature is required for most ecosystem models to be applied to landscape scales. There are relatively few empirical evaluations of landscape-scale temperature prediction techniques in mountainous terrain such as Korean Peninsula. We derived a periodic function of seasonal lapse rate fluctuation from analysis of elevation effects on daily temperatures. Observed daily maximum and minimum temperature data at 63 standard stations in 1999 were regressed to the latitude, longitude, distance from the nearest coastline and altitude of the stations, and the optimum models with $r^2$ of 0.65 and above were selected. Partial regression coefficients for the altitude variable were plotted against day of year, and a numerical formula was determined for simulating the seasonal trend of daily lapse rate, i.e., partial regression coefficients. The formula in conjunction with an inverse distance weighted interpolation scheme was applied to predict daily temperatures at 267 sites, where observation data are available, on randomly selected dates for winter, spring and summer in 2000. The estimation errors were smaller and more consistent than the inverse distance weighting plus mean annual lapse rate scheme. We conclude that this method is simple and accurate enough to be used as an operational temperature interpolation scheme at landscape scale in Korea and should be applicable to elsewhere.

  • PDF

Effects of Temperature on the Development and Fecundity of Maruca vitrata (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) (콩명나방(Maruca vitrata) (나비목: 포충나방과) 발육과 산란에 미치는 온도의 영향)

  • Jeong Joon, Ahn;Eun Young, Kim;Bo Yoon, Seo;Jin Kyo, Jung;Si-Woo, Lee
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.61 no.4
    • /
    • pp.563-575
    • /
    • 2022
  • Maruca vitrata is one of important pests in leguminous crops, especially red bean. We investigated the effects of temperature on development of each life stage, adult longevity and fecundity of M. vitrata for understanding the biological characteristics of the insect species at eight constant temperatures of 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, and 34℃. Eggs hatched successfully at all temperature subjected and larvae successfully developed to the adult stage from 16℃ to 31℃. The developmental period of egg decreased up to 31℃ and after then increased. The developmental period of larva and pupa, and adult longevity of M. vitrata decreased with increasing temperature. Lower and higher threshold temperature (TL and TH) were calculated by the Lobry-Rosso-Flandrois (LRF) and Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto (SSI) models. The lower developmental threshold (LDT) and thermal constant (K) from egg hatching to adult emergence of M. vitrata were estimated by linear regression as 12.8℃ and 280.8DD, respectively. TL and TH from egg hatching to adult emergence using SSI model were 14.2℃ and 31.9℃. Thermal windows, i.e., the range in temperature between the minimum and maximum rate of development, of M. vitrata was 17.7℃. In addition, we constructed the oviposition models of adult, using the investigated adult traits including survival, longevity, oviposition period and fecundity. Temperature-dependent development models and adult oviposition models will be helpful to understand the population dynamics of M vitrata and to establish the strategy of integrated pest management in legume crops.

Effects of Temperature on the Development and Reproduction of Matsumuraeses phaseoli (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) (팥나방(Matsumuraeses phaseoli)의 발육과 생식에 미치는 온도의 영향)

  • Jeong Joon, Ahn;Eun Young, Kim;Bo Yoon, Seo;Jin Kyo, Jung
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.61 no.3
    • /
    • pp.461-473
    • /
    • 2022
  • Matsumuraeses phaseoli is one of important pests in soybean crops, especially adzuki beans. We investigated the effects of temperature on development of each life stage, adult longevity and fecundity of M. phaseoli for understanding the biological characteristics of M. phaseoli at ten constant temperatures of 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, and 34℃. Eggs hatched successfully at all temperature subjected except 7℃ and 34℃. The developmental period of each life stage and adult longevity of M. phaseoli decreased as temperature increased. Lower and higher threshold temperature (TL and TH) were calculated by the Lobry-Rosso-Flandrois (LRF) and Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto (SSI) models. The lower developmental threshold (LDT) and thermal constant (K) from egg hatching to adult emergence of M. phaseoli were estimated by linear regression as 9.04℃ and 422.97DD, respectively. TL and TH from egg hatching to adult emergence using SSI model were 20.0℃ and 32.3℃. Thermal windows, i.e., the range in temperature between the minimum and maximum rate of development, of M. phaseoli was 12.3℃. We constructed the adult oviposition model of M. phaseoli using adult survivorship and fecundity. Temperature-dependent development models and adult oviposition models will be helpful to understand the population dynamics of M. falcana and to establish the strategy of integrated pest management in soybean fields.

The Effects of North Korea's Mineral Export on Various Imports (북한의 광물 수출과 품목별 수입: 대중무역을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dawool;Kim, Minjung;Kim, Byung-Yeon
    • Economic Analysis
    • /
    • v.26 no.2
    • /
    • pp.72-113
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study investigates the relationship between mineral exports to China, North Korea's most important source of foreign currency acquisition, and its imports of various items from China from the first quarter of 1995 through to the third quarter of 2019. The results from a cointegration analysis suggest that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between mineral exports and imports of food, fuel, and some intermediate goods, such as industrial supplies, parts, and accessories. The results from a vector autoregression using first-differenced variables indicate that the short-run relationship between mineral exports and imports is different between the period before and after the third quarter of 2010. Prior to structural changes, i.e., before the third quarter of 2010, import shocks affected mineral exports. However, after the third quarter of 2010, an increase in mineral exports led to an increase in the import of vehicles, intermediate goods, and luxury goods. This paper shows both the possibilities and the limits that mineral exports can contribute to North Korea's economic growth. The results, which show that mineral exports have a long-run relationship with intermediate goods, such as industrial supplies, parts and accessories, imply that mineral exports to China could have a positive effect on the North Korean economy. However, the fact that mineral exports do not have any significant effect on the import of machinery and equipment, which helps the accumulation of capital formation, shows that mineral exports have a limited effect on inducing long-term growth in the North Korean economy.

Modeling of Estimating Soil Moisture, Evapotranspiration and Yield of Chinese Cabbages from Meteorological Data at Different Growth Stages (기상자료(氣象資料)에 의(依)한 배추 생육시기별(生育時期別) 토양수분(土壤水分), 증발산량(蒸發散量) 및 수량(收量)의 추정모형(推定模型))

  • Im, Jeong-Nam;Yoo, Soon-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.386-408
    • /
    • 1988
  • A study was conducted to develop a model for estimating evapotranspiration and yield of Chinese cabbages from meteorological factors from 1981 to 1986 in Suweon, Korea. Lysimeters with water table maintained at 50cm depth were used to measure the potential evapotranspiration and the maximum evapotranspiration in situ. The actual evapotranspiration and the yield were measured in the field plots irrigated with different soil moisture regimes of -0.2, -0.5, and -1.0 bars, respectively. The soil water content throughout the profile was monitored by a neutron moisture depth gauge and the soil water potentials were measured using gypsum block and tensiometer. The fresh weight of Chinese cabbages at harvest was measured as yield. The data collected in situ were analyzed to obtain parameters related to modeling. The results were summarized as followings: 1. The 5-year mean of potential evapotranspiration (PET) gradually increased from 2.38 mm/day in early April to 3.98 mm/day in mid-June, and thereafter, decreased to 1.06 mm/day in mid-November. The estimated PET by Penman, Radiation or Blanney-Criddle methods were overestimated in comparison with the measured PET, while those by Pan-evaporation method were underestimated. The correlation between the estimated and the measured PET, however, showed high significance except for July and August by Blanney-Criddle method, which implied that the coefficients should be adjusted to the Korean conditions. 2. The meteorological factors which showed hgih correlation with the measured PET were temperature, vapour pressure deficit, sunshine hours, solar radiation and pan-evaporation. Several multiple regression equations using meteorological factors were formulated to estimate PET. The equation with pan-evaporation (Eo) was the simplest but highly accurate. PET = 0.712 + 0.705Eo 3. The crop coefficient of Chinese cabbages (Kc), the ratio of the maximum evapotranspiration (ETm) to PET, ranged from 0.5 to 0.7 at early growth stage and from 0.9 to 1.2 at mid and late growth stages. The regression equation with respect to the growth progress degree (G), ranging from 0.0 at transplanting day to 1.0 at the harvesting day, were: $$Kc=0.598+0.959G-0.501G^2$$ for spring cabbages $$Kc=0.402+1.887G-1.432G^2$$ for autumn cabbages 4. The soil factor (Kf), the ratio of the actual evapotranspiration to the maximum evapotranspiration, showed 1.0 when the available soil water fraction (f) was higher than a threshold value (fp) and decreased linearly with decreasing f below fp. The relationships were: Kf=1.0 for $$f{\geq}fp$$ Kf=a+bf for f$$I{\leq}Esm$$ Es = Esm for I > Esm 6. The model for estimating actual evapotranspiration (ETa) was based on the water balance neglecting capillary rise as: ETa=PET. Kc. Kf+Es 7. The model for estimating relative yield (Y/Ym) was selected among the regression equations with the measured ETa as: Y/Ym=a+bln(ETa) The coefficients and b were 0.07 and 0.73 for spring Chinese cabbages and 0.37 and 0.66 for autumn Chinese cabbages, respectively. 8. The estimated ETa and Y/Ym were compared with the measured values to verify the model established above. The estimated ETa showed disparities within 0.29mm/day for spring Chinese cabbages and 0.19mm/day for autumn Chinese cabbages. The average deviation of the estimated relative yield were 0.14 and 0.09, respectively. 9. The deviations between the estimated values by the model and the actual values obtained from three cropping field experiments after the completion of the model calibration were within reasonable confidence range. Therefore, this model was validated to be used in practical purpose.

  • PDF

Estimation of Soil Surface Temperature by Heat Flux in Soil (Heat flux를 이용한 토양 표면 온도 예측)

  • Hur, Seung-Oh;Kim, Won-Tae;Jung, Kang-Ho;Ha, Sang-Keon
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.37 no.3
    • /
    • pp.131-135
    • /
    • 2004
  • This study was carried out for the analysis of temperature characteristics on soil surface using soil heat flux which is one of the important parameters forming soil temperature. Soil surface temperature was estimated by using the soil temperature measured at 10 cm soil depth and the soil heat flux measured by flux plate at 5 cm soil depth. There was time lag of two hours between soil temperature and soil heat flux. Temperature changes over time showed a positive correlation with soil heat flux. Soil surface temperature was estimated by the equation using variable separation method for soil surface temperature. Arithmetic mean using temperatures measured at soil surface and 10 cm depth, and soil temperature measured at 5 cm depth were compared for accuracy of the value. To validate the regression model through this comparison, F-validation was used. Usefulness of deductive regression model was admitted because intended F-value was smaller than 0.001 and the determination coefficient was 0.968. It can be concluded that the estimated surface soil temperatures obtained by variable separation method were almost equal to the measured surface soil temperature.

A Spatial Interpolation Model for Daily Minimum Temperature over Mountainous Regions (산악지대의 일 최저기온 공간내삽모형)

  • Yun Jin-Il;Choi Jae-Yeon;Yoon Young-Kwan;Chung Uran
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.2 no.4
    • /
    • pp.175-182
    • /
    • 2000
  • Spatial interpolation of daily temperature forecasts and observations issued by public weather services is frequently required to make them applicable to agricultural activities and modeling tasks. In contrast to the long term averages like monthly normals, terrain effects are not considered in most spatial interpolations for short term temperatures. This may cause erroneous results in mountainous regions where the observation network hardly covers full features of the complicated terrain. We developed a spatial interpolation model for daily minimum temperature which combines inverse distance squared weighting and elevation difference correction. This model uses a time dependent function for 'mountain slope lapse rate', which can be derived from regression analyses of the station observations with respect to the geographical and topographical features of the surroundings including the station elevation. We applied this model to interpolation of daily minimum temperature over the mountainous Korean Peninsula using 63 standard weather station data. For the first step, a primitive temperature surface was interpolated by inverse distance squared weighting of the 63 point data. Next, a virtual elevation surface was reconstructed by spatially interpolating the 63 station elevation data and subtracted from the elevation surface of a digital elevation model with 1 km grid spacing to obtain the elevation difference at each grid cell. Final estimates of daily minimum temperature at all the grid cells were obtained by applying the calculated daily lapse rate to the elevation difference and adjusting the inverse distance weighted estimates. Independent, measured data sets from 267 automated weather station locations were used to calculate the estimation errors on 12 dates, randomly selected one for each month in 1999. Analysis of 3 terms of estimation errors (mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean squared error) indicates a substantial improvement over the inverse distance squared weighting.

  • PDF