• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 기반

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Quantifying Uncertainty for the Water Balance Analysis (물수지 분석을 위한 불확실성 정량화)

  • Lee, Seung-Uk;Kim, Young-Oh;Lee, Dong-Ryul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.4 s.153
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    • pp.281-292
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    • 2005
  • The water balance analysis for the long-term water resources plan is a simple calculation that compares water demands with possible water supplies. For a watershed being considered the reports on the performance of the water balance analysis, however, have shown inconsistent results and thus have not earned credibility due to the uncertainty of the data acquired and models used. In this research, uncertainties in the water scarcity estimate were assessed through probability representation based on the Monte Carlo simulation using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The natural flow, municipal demand, industrial demand, agricultural demand, and return flow rate were selected as representative input variables for the water balance analysis, and their distributions were set based on the linear regression and the entropy theory. The statistical properties of the output variable samples were analyzed in comparison with a deterministic estimate of the water scarcity of an existing study. Application of LHS to three sub-basins of the Geum river basin showed the deterministic estimate could be overestimated or underestimated. The sensitivity analysis as well as the uncertainty analysis found that the return flow rate of the agricultural water is the most uncertain but is rarely sensitive to the output of the water balance analysis.

Accelerated Loarning of Latent Topic Models by Incremental EM Algorithm (점진적 EM 알고리즘에 의한 잠재토픽모델의 학습 속도 향상)

  • Chang, Jeong-Ho;Lee, Jong-Woo;Eom, Jae-Hong
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.34 no.12
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    • pp.1045-1055
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    • 2007
  • Latent topic models are statistical models which automatically captures salient patterns or correlation among features underlying a data collection in a probabilistic way. They are gaining an increased popularity as an effective tool in the application of automatic semantic feature extraction from text corpus, multimedia data analysis including image data, and bioinformatics. Among the important issues for the effectiveness in the application of latent topic models to the massive data set is the efficient learning of the model. The paper proposes an accelerated learning technique for PLSA model, one of the popular latent topic models, by an incremental EM algorithm instead of conventional EM algorithm. The incremental EM algorithm can be characterized by the employment of a series of partial E-steps that are performed on the corresponding subsets of the entire data collection, unlike in the conventional EM algorithm where one batch E-step is done for the whole data set. By the replacement of a single batch E-M step with a series of partial E-steps and M-steps, the inference result for the previous data subset can be directly reflected to the next inference process, which can enhance the learning speed for the entire data set. The algorithm is advantageous also in that it is guaranteed to converge to a local maximum solution and can be easily implemented just with slight modification of the existing algorithm based on the conventional EM. We present the basic application of the incremental EM algorithm to the learning of PLSA and empirically evaluate the acceleration performance with several possible data partitioning methods for the practical application. The experimental results on a real-world news data set show that the proposed approach can accomplish a meaningful enhancement of the convergence rate in the learning of latent topic model. Additionally, we present an interesting result which supports a possible synergistic effect of the combination of incremental EM algorithm with parallel computing.

A Hierarchical CPV Solar Generation Tracking System based on Modular Bayesian Network (베이지안 네트워크 기반 계층적 CPV 태양광 추적 시스템)

  • Park, Susang;Yang, Kyon-Mo;Cho, Sung-Bae
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.41 no.7
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    • pp.481-491
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    • 2014
  • The power production using renewable energy is more important because of a limited amount of fossil fuel and the problem of global warming. A concentrative photovoltaic system comes into the spotlight with high energy production, since the rate of power production using solar energy is proliferated. These systems, however, need to sophisticated tracking methods to give the high power production. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical tracking system using modular Bayesian networks and a naive Bayes classifier. The Bayesian networks can respond flexibly in uncertain situations and can be designed by domain knowledge even when the data are not enough. Bayesian network modules infer the weather states which are classified into nine classes. Then, naive Bayes classifier selects the most effective method considering inferred weather states and the system makes a decision using the rules. We collected real weather data for the experiments and the average accuracy of the proposed method is 93.9%. In addition, comparing the photovoltaic efficiency with the pinhole camera system results in improved performance of about 16.58%.

Distortion of the Visual Working Memory Induced by Stroop Interference (스트룹 간섭에 의한 시각작업기억의 왜곡 현상)

  • Kim, Daegyu;Hyun, Joo-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.27-51
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    • 2015
  • The present study tested the effect of a top-down influence on recalling the colors of Stroop words. Participants remembered the colors of 1, 2, 3 or 6 Stroop words. After 1 second of a memory delay, they were asked to recall the color of a cued Stroop word by selecting out its corresponding color on a color-wheel stimulus. The correct recall was defined when the participants chose a color that was within ${\pm}45^{\circ}$ from the exact location of Stroop word's color on the color-wheel. Otherwise, the recall was defined as incorrect. The analyses of the frequency distribution of the participants' responses in the error trials showed that the probability of choosing the color-name of the target Stroop word was higher than the probability of other five color-names on the color-wheel. Further analyses showed that increasing the number of Stroop words to manipulate memory load did not affect the probability of the Stroop interference. These results indicate that the top-down interference by Stroop manipulation may induce systematic distortion of the stored representation in visual working memory.

Semantic Dependency Link Topic Model for Biomedical Acronym Disambiguation (의미적 의존 링크 토픽 모델을 이용한 생물학 약어 중의성 해소)

  • Kim, Seonho;Yoon, Juntae;Seo, Jungyun
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.41 no.9
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    • pp.652-665
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    • 2014
  • Many important terminologies in biomedical text are expressed as abbreviations or acronyms. We newly suggest a semantic link topic model based on the concepts of topic and dependency link to disambiguate biomedical abbreviations and cluster long form variants of abbreviations which refer to the same senses. This model is a generative model inspired by the latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) topic model, in which each document is viewed as a mixture of topics, with each topic characterized by a distribution over words. Thus, words of a document are generated from a hidden topic structure of a document and the topic structure is inferred from observable word sequences of document collections. In this study, we allow two distinct word generation to incorporate semantic dependencies between words, particularly between expansions (long forms) of abbreviations and their sentential co-occurring words. Besides topic information, the semantic dependency between words is defined as a link and a new random parameter for the link presence is assigned to each word. As a result, the most probable expansions with respect to abbreviations of a given abstract are decided by word-topic distribution, document-topic distribution, and word-link distribution estimated from document collection though the semantic dependency link topic model. The abstracts retrieved from the MEDLINE Entrez interface by the query relating 22 abbreviations and their 186 expansions were used as a data set. The link topic model correctly predicted expansions of abbreviations with the accuracy of 98.30%.

Optimal Site Selection of Floating Offshore Wind Farm using Genetic Algorithm (유전 알고리즘을 활용한 부유식 해상풍력단지 최적위치 선정)

  • Lee, Jeong-Seok;Son, Woo-Ju;Lee, Bo-Kyeong;Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.658-665
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    • 2019
  • Among the renewable energy resources, wind power is growing rapidly in terms of technological development and market share. Recently, onshore wind farm have been affected by limitations of terrestrial space and environmental problems. Consequently, installation sites have been moved to the sea, and the development of floating offshore wind farms that are installed at deep waters with more abundant wind conditions is actively underway. In the context of maritime traffic, the optimal site of offshore wind farms is required to minimize the interference between ships and wind turbines and to reduce the probability of accidents. In this study, genetic algorithm based AIS(Automatic Indentification System) data composed of genes and chromosomes has been used. The optimal site of floating offshore wind farm was selected by using 80 genes and by evaluating the fitness of genetic algorithm. Further, the final site was selected by aggregating the seasonal optimal site. During analysis, 11 optimal site were found, and it was verified that the final site selected usng the genetic algorithm was viable from the perspective of maritime traffic.

Distributed Alamouti Space Time Block Coding Based On Cooperative Relay System (협동 중계 시스템을 이용한 분산 Alamouti 시공간 블록 부호)

  • Song, Wei;Cho, Kye-Mun;Lee, Moon-Ho
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.46 no.9
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    • pp.16-23
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we propose a new distributed Alamouti space-time block coding scheme using cooperative relay system composed of one source node, three relay nodes and one destination node. The source node is assumed to be equipped with two antennas which respectively use a 2-beam array to communicate with two nodes selected from the three relay nodes. During the first time slot, the two signals which respectively were transmitted by one antenna at the source, are selected by one relay node, added, amplified, and forwarded to the destination. During the second time slot, the other two relay nodes implement the conjugate and minusconjugate operations to the two received signals, respectively, each in turn is amplified and forwarded to the destination node. This transmission scheme represents a new distributed Alamouti space-time block code that can be constructed at the relay-destination channel. Through an equivalent matrix expression of symbols, we analyze the performance of this proposed space-time block code in terms of the chernoff upper bound pairwise error probability (PEP). In addition, we evaluate the effect of the coefficient $\alpha$ ($0{\leq}{\alpha}{\leq}1$) determined by power allocation between the two antennas at the source on the received signal performance. Through computer simulation, we show that the received signals at the three relays have same variance only when the value of $\alpha$ is equal to $\frac{2}{3}$, as a consequence, a better performance is obtained at the destination. These analysis results show that the proposed scheme outperforms conventional proposed schemes in terms of diversity gain, PEP and the complexity of relay nodes.

Gauss-Newton Based Emitter Location Method Using Successive TDOA and FDOA Measurements (연속 측정된 TDOA와 FDOA를 이용한 Gauss-Newton 기법 기반의 신호원 위치추정 방법)

  • Kim, Yong-Hee;Kim, Dong-Gyu;Han, Jin-Woo;Song, Kyu-Ha;Kim, Hyoung-Nam
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.76-84
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    • 2013
  • In the passive emitter localization using instantaneous TDOA (time difference of arrival) and FDOA (frequency difference of arrival) measurements, the estimation accuracy can be improved by collecting additional measurements. To achieve this goal, it is required to increase the number of the sensors. However, in electronic warfare environment, a large number of sensors cause the loss of military strength due to high probability of intercept. Also, the additional processes should be considered such as the data link and the clock synchronization between the sensors. Hence, in this paper, the passive localization of a stationary emitter is presented by using the successive TDOA and FDOA measurements from two moving sensors. In this case, since an independent pair of sensors is added in the data set at every instant of measurement, each pair of sensors does not share the common reference sensor. Therefore, the QCLS (quadratic correction least squares) methods cannot be applied, in which all pairs of sensor should include the common reference sensor. For this reason, a Gauss-Newton algorithm is adopted to solve the non-linear least square problem. In addition, to show the performance of the proposed method, we compare the RMSE (root mean square error) of the estimates with CRLB (Cramer-Rao lower bound) and derived the CEP (circular error probable) planes to analyze the expected estimation performance on the 2-dimensional space.

Transportation Card Based Optimal M-Similar Paths Searching for Estimating Passengers' Route Choice in Seoul Metropolitan Railway Network (수도권 도시철도망 승객이동경로추정을 위한 교통카드기반 최적 M-유사경로 구축방안)

  • Lee, Mee young
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2017
  • The Seoul metropolitan transportation card's high value lies in its recording of total population movements of the public transit system. In case of recorded information on transit by bus, even though route information utilized by each passenger is accurate, the lack of passenger transfer information of the urban railway makes it difficult to estimate correct routes taken by each passenger. Therefore, pinpointing passenger path selection patterns arising in the metropolitan railway network and using this as part of a path movement estimation model is essential. This research seeks to determine that features of passenger movement routes in the urban railway system is comprised of M-similar routes with increasing number of transfer reflected as additional costs. In order to construct the path finding conditions, an M-similar route searching method is proposed, embedded with non additive path cost which appears through inclusion of the stepwise transportation parameter. As well, sensitivity of the M-similar route method based on transportation card records is evaluated and a stochastic trip assignment model using M-similar path finding is constructed. From these, link trip and transfer trip results between lines of the Seoul metropolitan railway are presented.

An Improvement of Still Image Quality Based on Error Resilient Entropy Coding for Random Error over Wireless Communications (무선 통신상 임의 에러에 대한 에러내성 엔트로피 부호화에 기반한 정지영상의 화질 개선)

  • Kim Jeong-Sig;Lee Keun-Young
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.43 no.3 s.309
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2006
  • Many image and video compression algorithms work by splitting the image into blocks and producing variable-length code bits for each block data. If variable-length code data are transmitted consecutively over error-prone channel without any error protection technique, the receiving decoder cannot decode the stream properly. So the standard image and video compression algorithms insert some redundant information into the stream to provide some protection against channel errors. One of redundancies is resynchronization marker, which enables the decoder to restart the decoding process from a known state in the event of transmission errors, but its usage should be restricted not to consume bandwidth too much. The Error Resilient Entropy Code(EREC) is well blown method which can regain synchronization without any redundant information. It can work with the overall prefix codes, which many image compression methods use. This paper proposes EREREC method to improve FEREC(Fast Error-Resilient Entropy Coding). It first calculates initial searching position according to bit lengths of consecutive blocks. Second, initial offset is decided using statistical distribution of long and short blocks, and initial offset can be adjusted to insure all offset sequence values can be used. The proposed EREREC algorithm can speed up the construction of FEREC slots, and can improve the compressed image quality in the event of transmission errors. The simulation result shows that the quality of transmitted image is enhanced about $0.3{\sim}3.5dB$ compared with the existing FEREC when random channel error happens.