• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 과정

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A Study on the Mission Reliability of Combat System through the Design Structure Matrix and Interface Matrix (설계구조행렬(DSM) 및 인터페이스 매트릭스 설계를 통한 전투체계 임무신뢰도에 관한연구)

  • Lee, Jeong-Wan;Park, Chan-Hyeon;Kim, So-Jung;Kim, Eui-Whan;Jang, Joong Soon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.9
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    • pp.451-458
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    • 2019
  • Reliability in the course of weapons system development and operation is a key measure of the ability of a system to perform the required functions under specified conditions over a specified period of time, and the mission confidence for the assessment of mission fulfillment is an important indicator of victory or defeat in a battle. Mission reliability indicates the probability that a given task will succeed or fail in an event or environmental situation over a given period of time. The existing mission reliability was calculated after creating a confidence blow map with only physical connections based on the mission. However, as modern weapons systems evolve and advance, the related equipment structure becomes increasingly complex, making it impossible to express mission relevance when mission classification is required based on functional or physical connections. In this study, the mission reliability was calculated for a gun control system, which is part of a ship's combat system, by expressing the association between the physical and functional structures using the design structure matrix technique and the interface matrix technique. We expect the study results to be used as verification data for mission reliability.

Development and Application TEP Activity for the Education of Experimental Apparatus at Elementary School (초등학생의 실험기구 교육을 위한 TEP 활동의 개발 및 적용)

  • Jeon, Soyeon;Park, Jongseok
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.64 no.6
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    • pp.379-388
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study are to develop the TEP activity for learning experimental apparatus at elementary school and to test the effects of the TEP activity. This study consists of two steps. First through literature research on the difficulties and needs of experimental apparatus education developed the form that how to educate the experimental apparatus at elementary school. Second, applied the TEP activity and figured out the effects as two aspect(knowledge about experimental apparatus and actual using skill during lesson). This worksheet was applied to 3rd grade students in elementary school about 4 experimental apparatuses(Beaker, Electronic scale, Glass rod, Spatula). The results of this study are as follows: There is no specific time to teach what is and how to use experimental apparatus by regular curriculum. So many students and teachers need method and time to learn them. Also they want to lots of opportunities to use them. With that needs given previously, TEP activity developed by 3 steps. 1. Trigger interest 2. Explore experimental apparatus: learned knowledges about experimental apparatus focused on appearance(name, purpose, directions for use, precautions) 3. Practice experimental apparatus: actual using time to acquire skills. After that did the survey of knowledge and observation of students' behavior during usual class to confirm the effects. According to the results, TEP activity helped the students to improve there awareness of the experimental apparatus and actual using skills.

A Study of Citizens' Giving Behavior by Income Level: Estimation of Probability and Amount of Secular Giving (소득 수준별 기부 행동 변화에 관한 연구: 자선적 기부 참여 확률 및 규모 추정)

  • Kang, Chul Hee;Park, Tae Kuen;Lee, Soo Yeon
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2017
  • This paper attempts to analyze citizens' giving behavior by household income level. Particularly, it focuses on participation and amount of secular giving by using 'Social Survey'in 2011, 2013, and 2015 from the Bureau of Statistics and employing Heckman selection model for statistical analysis. This study shows that citizens' participation has a proportional tendency by their income level. Similar to participation of secular giving, citizens' giving amount has also a proportional tendency by their income level. However, the degree of proportional tendency seems not to be significant in the case of amount of secular giving. This empirical analysis promotes understanding of participation and amount of secular giving by citizens' income section in Korea by showing the differences. This paper provides meaningful empirical understanding regarding citizens' secular giving behavior by their income level. In addition, it offers important clues to motivate relevant prospective studies and develop social agenda which contribute to strengthening giving culture in Korea.

Secure and Efficient V2V Message Authentication Scheme in Dense Vehicular Communication Networks (차량 밀집환경에서 안전하고 효율적인 V2V 메시지 인증기법)

  • Jung, Seock-Jae;Yoo, Young-Jun;Paik, Jung-Ha;Lee, Dong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2010
  • Message authentication is an essential security element in vehicular ad-hoc network(VANET). For a secure message authentication, integrity, availability, privacy preserving skill, and also efficiency in various environment should be provided. RAISE scheme has been proposed to provide efficient message authentication in the environment crowded with lots of vehicles and generally considered to be hard to provide efficiency. However, as the number of vehicles communicating in the area increases, the overhead is also incurred in proportion to the number of vehicles so that it still needs to be reduced, and the scheme is vulnerable to some attacks. In this paper, to make up for the vulnerabilities in dense vehicular communication network, we propose a more secure and efficient scheme using a process that RSU(Road Side Unit) transmits the messages of neighbor vehicles at once with Bloom Filter, and timestamp to protect against replay attack. Moreover, by adding a handover function to the scheme, we simplify the authentication process as omitting the unnecessary key-exchange process when a vehicle moves to other area. And we confirm the safety and efficiency of the scheme by simulating the false positive probability and calculating the traffic.

Analyzing The Economic Impact of The Fire Risk Reduction at Regional Level in Goyang City (지역단위 화재 위험도 저감의 고양시 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Son, Minsu;Cho, Dongin;Park, Chang Keun;Ko, Hyun A;Jung, Seunghyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.685-693
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    • 2021
  • This study examined the fire risk of the region in Goyang City using the spatial information data of buildings. The economic damage by industry was assessed according to the probability of fire risk. The study area was confined to Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do, and the same fire risk reduction rate was applied to each region for the convenience of analysis. The possibility of fire was derived based on the buildings' density and usage in the area by National GIS building-integrated information standard data. The calculation of economic damage by industry in Goyang City due to the fire risk was calculated by combining the Goyang-si industry-related model produced by matching with 30 industrial categories in Input-Output Statistics of Korea Bank and 20 industrial categories in the Goyang-si business survey and the possibility of fire. The basic scenario of production impossibility during six months and business loss due to fire was established and analyzed based on the supply model. The analysis showed that Ilsan-dong-gu, Ilsan-seo-gu, and Deokyang-gu suffered the most economic damage. The "electricity, gas, steam, and water business" showed the greatest loss by industry.

Analytical Methods for the Analysis of Structural Connectivity in the Mouse Brain (마우스 뇌의 구조적 연결성 분석을 위한 분석 방법)

  • Im, Sang-Jin;Baek, Hyeon-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.507-518
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    • 2021
  • Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a key technology that has been seeing increasing use in studying the structural and functional innerworkings of the brain. Analyzing the variability of brain connectome through tractography analysis has been used to increase our understanding of disease pathology in humans. However, there lacks standardization of analysis methods for small animals such as mice, and lacks scientific consensus in regard to accurate preprocessing strategies and atlas-based neuroinformatics for images. In addition, it is difficult to acquire high resolution images for mice due to how significantly smaller a mouse brain is compared to that of humans. In this study, we present an Allen Mouse Brain Atlas-based image data analysis pipeline for structural connectivity analysis involving structural region segmentation using mouse brain structural images and diffusion tensor images. Each analysis method enabled the analysis of mouse brain image data using reliable software that has already been verified with human and mouse image data. In addition, the pipeline presented in this study is optimized for users to efficiently process data by organizing functions necessary for mouse tractography among complex analysis processes and various functions.

A Study on the Effects of Reading Education Using Book-Coding (북코딩의 독서교육 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Ji, Hyoun-Ah;Cho, Miah
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.145-166
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    • 2021
  • The study was aimed at verifying the effectiveness of Book-Coding reading education as a reader activity of older elementary school children at a time when high-dimensional thinking abilities were formed. To this end, 30 fifth-grade children of N Elementary School in N-si, Gyeonggi-do, comprised of 15 students from a reading education program using Book-Coding, and 15 students from a reading comprehension program, and applied the reading education program over a total of 12 sessions. The main results of the study are summarized as follows. First, when the effects of the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding on the logical thinking ability of the students in the upper grades in the elementary school were analyzed, all the six sub-factors of logical thinking ability, that is, conservation logic, proportional logic, variable controlling logic, probabilistic logic, correlational inference logic, and combinational logic, were proved to have statistically more meaningful difference than the group writing a book report. Second, the analysis result of the influence of the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding on the creativity of the students in the upper grades of the elementary school showed that all the 13 elements of curiosity, persistence, effectiveness, independence, adventurousness, openness, knowledge, imagination, originality, sensitivity, fluency, flexibility, and accuracy were statistically meaningfully different compared to the book report group. Third, when it was analyzed how the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding affected the creative personality of the elementary school students, all the six factors of curiosity, task commitment, independence, awareness of risk, and openness of thinking, and aesthetics were found out to have a statistically more meaningful difference than the group that wrote a book report.

A development of stochastic simulation model based on vector autoregressive model (VAR) for groundwater and river water stages (벡터자기회귀(VAR) 모형을 이용한 지하수위와 하천수위의 추계학적 모의기법 개발)

  • Kwon, Yoon Jeong;Won, Chang-Hee;Choi, Byoung-Han;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.1137-1147
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    • 2022
  • River and groundwater stages are the main elements in the hydrologic cycle. They are spatially correlated and can be used to evaluate hydrological and agricultural drought. Stochastic simulation is often performed independently on hydrological variables that are spatiotemporally correlated. In this setting, interdependency across mutual variables may not be maintained. This study proposes the Bayesian vector autoregression model (VAR) to capture the interdependency between multiple variables over time. VAR models systematically consider the lagged stages of each variable and the lagged values of the other variables. Further, an autoregressive model (AR) was built and compared with the VAR model. It was confirmed that the VAR model was more effective in reproducing observed interdependency (or cross-correlation) between river and ground stages, while the AR generally underestimated that of the observed.

Performance Analysis of Trading Strategy using Gradient Boosting Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithm

  • Jang, Phil-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.27 no.11
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we developed a system to dynamically balance a daily stock portfolio and performed trading simulations using gradient boosting and genetic algorithms. We collected various stock market data from stocks listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets, including investor-specific transaction data. Subsequently, we indexed the data as a preprocessing step, and used feature engineering to modify and generate variables for training. First, we experimentally compared the performance of three popular gradient boosting algorithms in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, including XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost. Based on the results, in a second experiment, we used a LightGBM model trained on the collected data along with genetic algorithms to predict and select stocks with a high daily probability of profit. We also conducted simulations of trading during the period of the testing data to analyze the performance of the proposed approach compared with the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices in terms of the CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), MDD (Maximum Draw Down), Sharpe ratio, and volatility. The results showed that the proposed strategies outperformed those employed by the Korean stock market in terms of all performance metrics. Moreover, our proposed LightGBM model with a genetic algorithm exhibited competitive performance in predicting stock price movements.

A Nuclide Transport Model in the Fractured Rock Medium Using a Continuous Time Markov Process (연속시간 마코프 프로세스를 이용한 균열암반매질에서의 핵종이동 모델)

  • Lee, Y.M.;Kang, C.H.;Hahn, P.S.;Park, H.H.;Lee, K.J.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.529-538
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    • 1993
  • A stochastic way using continuous time Markov process is presented to model the one-dimensional nuclide transport in fractured rock matrix as an extended study for previous work [1]. A nuclide migration model by the continuous time Markov process for single planar fractured rock matrix, which is considered as a transient system where a process by which the nuclide is diffused into the rock matrix from the fracture may be no more time homogeneous, is compared with a conventional deterministic analytical solution. The primary desired quantities from a stochastic model are the expected values and variance of the state variables as a function of time. The time-dependent probability distributions of nuclides are presented for each discretized compartment of the medium given intensities of transition. Since this model is discrete in medium space, parameters which affect nuclide transport could be easily incorporated for such heterogeneous media as the fractured rock matrix and the layered porous media. Even though the model developed in this study was shown to be sensitive to the number of discretized compartment showing numerical dispersion as the number of compartments are decreased, with small compensating of dispersion coefficient, the model agrees well to analytical solution.

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