• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 사고

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Optimal Site Selection of Floating Offshore Wind Farm using Genetic Algorithm (유전 알고리즘을 활용한 부유식 해상풍력단지 최적위치 선정)

  • Lee, Jeong-Seok;Son, Woo-Ju;Lee, Bo-Kyeong;Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.658-665
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    • 2019
  • Among the renewable energy resources, wind power is growing rapidly in terms of technological development and market share. Recently, onshore wind farm have been affected by limitations of terrestrial space and environmental problems. Consequently, installation sites have been moved to the sea, and the development of floating offshore wind farms that are installed at deep waters with more abundant wind conditions is actively underway. In the context of maritime traffic, the optimal site of offshore wind farms is required to minimize the interference between ships and wind turbines and to reduce the probability of accidents. In this study, genetic algorithm based AIS(Automatic Indentification System) data composed of genes and chromosomes has been used. The optimal site of floating offshore wind farm was selected by using 80 genes and by evaluating the fitness of genetic algorithm. Further, the final site was selected by aggregating the seasonal optimal site. During analysis, 11 optimal site were found, and it was verified that the final site selected usng the genetic algorithm was viable from the perspective of maritime traffic.

Quantitative Risk Analysis for Railway Tunnels (철도터널 화재에 대한 정량적 위험도 분석)

  • Park, Jung Hyun;Shim, Cha Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.400-412
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    • 2017
  • What is particularly noteworthy from Korean and foreign railway tunnel disaster prevention standards is that for the sake of rapid evacuation, more stringent standards for provision of evacuation passages, which require high cost, are being applied. Korean standards stipulate that passage installation should be determined in accordance with the level of risk through a QRA analysis of each tunnel with 1km or longer length. As, however, detailed application criteria as fire occurrence probability, fire occurrence scenario, size of fires and evaluation criteria for level of social risk are not available, additional costs may be incurred due to excessive design. Thus, standards of an appropriate level need to be established. With this backdrop, this study selects detailed application conditions of a reasonable and appropriate level through a study and analysis of relevant documents and analyzes the maximum length of tunnels to which the application of evacuation passages, or the application major evacuation promotion facilities, can be relaxed, together with a QRA analysis of model tunnels (for high speed rail) with different tunnel lengths. In addition, the QRA results on tunnels, including those on the Honam high-speed rail, and analysis results for the model tunnels, are compiled, ; the ultimate results are compared with Korean and other countries' standards related to evacuation promotion facilities, As a result, The appropriateness of application standards are reviewed. These results are expected to be utilized as basic material for establishing a reasonable disaster prevention plan that will consider safety and economies.

Cause-Specific Mortality at the Provincial Level (시도의 사망원인별 사망력)

  • Park Kyung Ae
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2003
  • An analysis on cause-specific mortality at the provincial level provides essential information for policy formulation and makes it possible to draw hypotheses regarding various diseases and causes of death. Although the mortality level and causes of death at the provincial level are determined by the multiple effects of socioeconomic, cultural, medical and ecological factors, this study primarily intends to examine similarities and differences of cause-specific mortality at the provincial level. Utilizing the registered death and the registered population as of 1998, the delayed death registration and unreported infant deaths were supplemented at the provincial level and age-standardized death rates and life tables were calculated. Regarding the mortality level due to all causes, major findings were as follow: (1) For both sexes as a whole, Seoul showed the lowest mortality level, and Jeonnam showed the highest mortality level; and (2) The differences of the mortality level among provinces were greater for males than females and for those less than 65 years than those 65 years and over. Regarding the cause-specific mortality level revealed in all indicators (cause-specific age-standardized mortality rates and the probability of dying at birth due to a specific cause for males, females, and both sexes combined respectively), the major findings were as follow: (1) The mortality level due to heart diseases was the highest in Busan and the lowest in Gangweon; (2) The mortality level due to liver diseases was the highest in Chonnam; and (3) The mortality level due to traffic accidents was the highest in Chungnam and the lowest in Inchon. As the mortality differentials at the provincial level are related to various factors, exploratory statistical analysis is attempted for the 25 explanatory variables including socioeconomic variables and 90 mortality variables. Mortality due to all causes are related to socioeconomic variables. Among cause-specific mortality, mortality due to liver diseases and traffic accidents is related to socioeconomic variables. Finally, the need to improve the quality of death certificate is discussed.

Simulation Analysis on Passengers' Normal Evacuation Scenarios Considering the Changes of Heeling Angle during MV Sewol's Sinking (세월호 침몰시의 힐링각변화 조건에서 승객의 정상적인 탈출시나리오에 관한 시뮬레이션 분석)

  • Hwang, Kwang-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2015
  • Under the conditions of invested actual changes of heeling angles during MV Sewol's sinking, this study proposes passengers' evacuation scenarios, which are based on the assumption of normal orders of evacuation being given to the passengers, and evaluates using a marine-specialized human evacuation simulation tool. As results, when the heeling angle is set as 0 degree or 30 degree, it is found out that almost every passengers can success to evacuate to the musterstations, even though the evacuation times are different depending on the scenarios and the walking speeds. Meanwhile, when the heeling angle is varied as the Sewol incident, 3.1 %(Scenario Sc-Va which set chutes on port side as evacuation routes), 11.1 %(Sc-Vb, every open decks of port side as evacuation routes) and 20.0 %(Sc-Vc, every open decks of port and AFT sides as evacuation routes) among 476 passengers can successfully reach to the musterstations from their cabins with the condition of average walking speed as 2.04 m/s on flat. And only 0.8 %(Sc-Va), 3.8 %(Sc-Vb) and 10.7 %(Sc-Vc) can success to evacuate with the condition of average walking speed as 1.48 m/s on flat.

Development of Reefer Container Real-time Management System (실시간 냉동컨테이너 관리 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Sung-Pill;Jung, Jun-Woo;Moon, Young-Sik;Kim, Tae-Hoon;Lee, Byung-Ha;Kim, Jae-Joong;Choi, Hyung-Lim;Lee, Eun-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.2917-2923
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    • 2015
  • In spite of a recent trend of container ships becoming larger in size, the current circumstance is that managing reefer containers marine transportation is being mostly dependent upon manpower. Particularly, in the case of bad weather or nighttime, reefer containers are not being monitored due to lack of safety device. For the purpose of reducing such risk, IMO is recommending a system using PLC but the system is not being used. In addition, they are still relying on manpower for control and reliability of freight in transit is decreasing due to lack of information during marine transportation for every subject related to freight as well as shipper. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to propose a real-time reefer container management system to effectively control all reefer containers widely being used across the world.

Development of Computer Code for Simulation of Multicomponent Aerosol Dynamics -Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis- (다성분 에어로졸계의 동특성 묘사를 위한 전산 코드의 개발 -불확실성 및 민감도 해석-)

  • Na, Jang-Hwan;Lee, Byong-Whi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.85-98
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    • 1987
  • To analyze the aerosol dynamics in severe accidents of LMFBR, a new computer code entitled MCAD (Multicomponent Aerosol Dynamics) has been developed. The code can treat two component aerosol system using relative collision probability of each particles as sequences of accident scenarios. Coagulation and removal mechanisms incorporating Brownian diffusion and gravitational sedimentation are included in this model. In order to see the effect of particle geometry, the code makes use of the concept of density correction factor and shape factors. The code is verified using the experimental result of NSPP-300 series and compared to other code. At present, it fits the result of experiment well and agrees to the existing code. The input variables included are very uncertain. Hence, it requires uncertainty and sensitivity analysis as a supplement to code development. In this analysis, 14 variables are selected to analyze. The input variables are compounded by experimental design method and Latin hypercube sampling. Their results are applied to Response surface method to see the degree of regression. The stepwise regression method gives an insight to which variables are significant as time elapse and their reasonable ranges. Using Monte Carlo Method to the regression model of LHS, the confidence level of the results of MCAD and their variables is improved.

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A Study of the Factors Affecting the Sustainability of Coastal Shipping Companies: from the Perspective of Safety (내항선사의 지속가능성에 미치는 영향 요인 연구 : 안전관련 중심으로)

  • Sung-Rae Cho;Chang-Kyun Noh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.168-176
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    • 2023
  • The demand for measures to enhance the safety of maritime transportation is growing internationally, and coastal shipping companies are pursuing sustainability by establishing various maritime safety policies. Increased awareness of the safety management system and safety culture of coastal shipping companies will minimize accidents and increase corporate sustainability. This study empirically analyzed the impact of a safety management system (safety policy, risk management, and safety guarantee) on the corporate sustainability of coastal shipping companies through the mediation of safety culture. The survey questions for each variable were constructed based on previous research and a dministered to 204 employees of coastal shipping companies. Analysis founed that safety policy did not have a statistically significant effect on safety culture, but risk management and safety guarantees had a positive significant effect on safety culture, which in turn had a positive and significant effect on sustainability. Furthermore, we found that safety culture has a mediating effect on the relationship between risk management and safety guarantees and sustainability. Coastal shipping companies thus need to systematize and strengthen risk management and safety assurance to increase safety culture awareness, and increased safety culture awareness can also increase sustainability.

A Study of Adjustment for Beginning & Ending Points of Climbing Lanes (오르막차로 시.종점 위치의 보정에 관한 연구)

  • 김상윤;오흥운
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.5 s.91
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2006
  • Acceleration and deceleration curves have been used for design purposes worldwide. The curve in design level has been regarded as an single deterministic curve to be used for design of climb lanes. It should be noted that the curve was originally made using ideal driving truck and that the curve is applied during design based on the assumption of no difference between ideal and real driving conditions. However. observations show that aged vehicles and lazy behavioring drivers nay make lower performance of vehicles than the ideal performance. The present paper provides the results of truck speeds at climbing lanes then probabilistic variation of acceleration and deceleration corves. For these purposes. a study about identification of vehicle makers, and weights for trucks at freeway toll gates and then observation of vehicle-following speed were performed. The 85%ile results obtained were compared with the deterministic performance curves of 180, 200, and 220 Ib/hp. It was identified that the performance of 85%ile results obtained from vehicle-following-speed observations were lower than one from deterministic performance curves. From these results, it may be concluded that at the beginning Point of climbing lanes additional $16.19{\sim}67.94m$ is necessary and that at the end point of climbing lanes $53.12{\sim}103.24m$ of extension is necessary.

Affective Polarization, Policy versus Party: The 2020 US Presidential Election (정서적 양극화, 정책인가 아니면 정당인가: 2020 미대선 사례)

  • Kang, Miongsei
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.79-115
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to account for electoral choice in the 2020 presidential election by focusing on social identity which forms the basis for core partisan groups. Two views compete to explain the origins of polarization, policy versus party. One emphasizes policy as more influential in choosing presidential candidates. This follows the tradition of retrospective voting theory in which voters' choice rely on government performance. Incumbent president whose performance proves well are rewarded to be reelected. Policy performance is based on measures around distinctive preferences for government spending. Republican Individuals prefer individual responsibility to government support, while Democratic counterparts support government support. Another perspective put an emphasis on the role partisanship which favors in-party members and disfavors partisan out-groups. Interparty animosity plays the key role in determining electoral behavior. This study relies on the Views of the Electorate Research (VOTER) Survey which provides a panel data of several waves from 2011 to 2020. A comparative evaluation of two views highlights three findings. First, policy matters. Policy preferences of voters are the primary drives of political behavior. Electoral outcomes in 2020 turned out to be the results of policy considerations of voters. 53.7 percent of voters tilted toward individual responsibility voted for Trump, whereas 70.4 percent of those favorable views of government support than individual responsibility voted for Biden. Thus effects of policy correspond to a positive difference of 26.4 percent points. Second, partisanship effects are of similar extent in influencing electoral choice of candidates: Democrats are less likely to vote for Trump by 42.4 percent points, while Republicans are less likely to vote for Biden by 48.7 percent points. Third, animosity of Republicans toward Democrat core groups creates 26.5 percent points of favoring Trump over Biden. Democrat animosity toward Republican core groups creates a positive difference of 13.7 percent points of favoring Biden.

A study on the optimal variable transformation method to identify the correlation between ATP and APC (ATP와 APC 간의 관련성 규명을 위한 최적의 변수변환법에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Hye-Kyung;Shin, Jae-Kyoung;Kim, Yang Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.1465-1475
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    • 2016
  • In order to secure safe meals, the hazards of microorganisms associated with food poisoning accident should be monitored and controlled in real situations. It is necessary to determined the correlation between existing common bacteria number (aerobic plate count; APC) and RLU (relative light unit) in cookware. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between ATP (RUL) and APC (CFU) by using three types of transform (inverse, square root, log transforms) of raw data in two steps. Among these transforms, the log transform at the first step has been found to be optimal for the data of cutting board, knife, soup bowl (stainless), and tray (carbon). The square root-inverse and the square root-square root transform at the second step have been shown to be optimal respectively for the cup and for the soup bowl (carbon) data.