• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2000.04b
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• pp.244-246
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• 2000

유전자 프로그래밍은 고정적인 구조가 아닌 가변 길이의 트리 구조를 가지고 있어서 여러 세대를 통하여 다양한 개체들을 만들어 낸다. 이러한 특징은 위원회 머신(committee machines)을 구축하는데 있어서 자연스럽고 또한 효과적인 알고리즘일 수 있다.하지만 해결해야 할 요소 중 하나는 다수의 개체들에서 결합할 개체의 선택과 개체의 수를 결정하기 위한 방법이다. 본 논문에서는 효과적인 개체들의 결합이 되기 위한 새로운 탐색방법을 소개한다. 이 방법은 확률적인 진화 탐색을 바탕으로 하고 있다. 제안된 방법을 여러 가지 분류 문제에 적용하였으며 실험을 통하여 탐색의 특성과 일반화 성능을 분석하였다.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2010.06a
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• pp.239-239
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• 2010

해양에서 물리적 에너지원으로는 조류, 조력, 파력, 해양온도차에너지(Ocean Thermal Energy : OTE)가 있으며, OTE 개발을 위해서는 우선 부존 자원량 파악과 개발적지 선정이 선행되어야 한다. 이를 위해 대상해역의 표층과 심층간의 수온차이 값(${\Delta}T$)에 대한 연중출현확률의 산정이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 ${\Delta}T$의 연중출현확률을 산정하기 위해 남해 해역을 대상으로 47년간(1961~2007) 격월 별(2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12월)로 관측된 93개 정점의 정선해양관측자료(국립수산과학원)를 사용하였다. ${\Delta}T$값을 정량화 하고자 정점 별 ${\Delta}T$(> $5^{\circ}C$, > $10^{\circ}C$, > $15^{\circ}C$)의 연중출현확률을 빈도분석과 조화분석 방법을 사용하여 계산하고 이를 공간적으로 광역적 규모와 지역적 규모에서 두 방법의 장단점을 비교, 분석 하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.291-298
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• 1996

통계학분야 그리고 또 다른 많은 분야에서 수치적 계산을 다루는 문제가 자주 발생한다. 적당한 컴퓨터 컴퓨터 시간안에 상당한 정도의 정확성을 줄 수 있고 또한 보다 광범위하게 사용 가능한 유용한 알고리즘의 필요성을 느낀다. 이러한 문제에 가능한 하나의 몬테칼로 알고리즘인 주표본 알고리즘을 소개하였다. 그리고 특히 본 눈문에서는 축차확률비검정의 오차확률을 계산하는 곳에 주표본 알고리즘을 적용하고 결과를 비교분석하였다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.5
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• pp.167-176
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• 2006

It was found that Korean Standard of Estimate which has been used as the only basis of cost estimate of public construction projects had some side effects such as jerry-build construction and over-estimation because it failed to reflect the current price and the state-of-the-art construction methods in a changing construction environment. Therefore, the government decided to gradually introduce historical construction cost into cost estimate of public construction projects from 2004. This paper presents analytic criteria and a process model for deducing more current and reasonable historical construction cost for contract items from not only previous contract prices but also all of the other bid prices that were not contracted. The procedure of estimating actual unit cost proposed in this paper focuses on the removal of abnormal values including strategically too low or high prices and the time correction. In addition, basic research is conducted for the correction of actual unit cost through the analysis of fluctuation of bid price depending on bidding types and rates of successful bid. It is anticipated that the effective use of the proposed process model for estimating actual unit cost would make the cost estimation more current and reasonable.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.25 no.7
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• pp.787-793
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• 2005

The purposes of this study were to investigate the development of probabilistic thinking in relation to the cognitive level of elementary school students and to analyze the effects of probability activities in Thinking Science(TS) program on the development of probabilistic thinking. 152 6th grade elementary school students compiled the sample group which was divided into an experimental group and a control group. Probability activities in TS program were used with the experimental group, while the normal curriculum was conducted with the control group. Both the experimental and control group were assessed with Science Reasoning Task II and a probabilistic thinking test before execution of this investigation and were post-tested with probabilistic thinking test after the project period was complete. Results of this study showed that the students in the concrete operational stage and transitional stage used subjective strategy together with quantitative strategy in probability problem-solving, and students in the early formal operational stage used quantitative strategy in probability problem-solving. It was also found that the higher the cognitive level of students, the higher the probabilistic thinking level. The probability activities of the TS program influenced the development of probabilistic thinking of elementary school students. Assessing the development of probabilistic thinking on the basis of the cognitive level found that the level of effectiveness was significantly higher for students in the early concrete operational stage and transitional stage than students in any other stage.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.581-605
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to provide basic data for improving energy efficiency by estimating the regional energy efficiency in Korea using the stochastic frontier approach beyond the energy intensity that has been traditionally used as an indicator of energy efficiency. In this paper, energy efficiency and energy intensity efficiency were estimated as a stochastic distance function from 1998 to 2018 for 16 cities and provinces in Korea. In addition, the robustness of energy efficiency according to the capital stock estimation methods which had been mixed in previous studies was reviewed. As a result of the analysis, there is a significant change in regional rankings according to the three energy efficiency indicators, so they should be used complementary to each other. Second, while the energy efficiency improved little by little over time, the energy intensity efficiency decreased slightly though. Lastly, energy efficiency by region according to the capital stock estimation method was not robust. Care must be taken in estimating capital stock, which is important in economic analysis.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.1-20
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• 2002

이 논문에서는 1991년 1월부터 2000년 12월까지의 납세 후 CD수익률 자료와 소비자물가지수 자료를 사용하여 우리 나라 금융시장에서 단기적 피셔효과가 존재하는지를 검증하고자 시도하였다. Fama(1975)의 방법에 따라 3개월 물가상승률을 CD수익률에 관해 회귀분석한 결과, CD수익률이 미래 물가상승률의 예측치로서 충분한 역할을 하지 못한다는 결과를 얻었다. 단기적 피셔효과를 검증하기 위하여 CD수익률을 기대물가상승률에 관하여 회귀분석하였다. 기대물가상승률은 상수 및 시간추세와 계절성을 반영하는 부분과 확률적 부분으로 구분하고, 확률적 부분이 랜돔워크 모형에 따르는 경우와 AR(1) 모형에 따르는 경우에 대해 기대물가상승률을 구하였다. 랜돔워크모형에 의해 예측하든 AR(1)에 의해 예측하든 기대물가상승률의 회귀계수는 유의한 양(+)의 값이긴 1보다는 훨씬 작은 값으로 추정되었다. 이것은 우리나라의 CD수익률에 단기 피셔효과가 부분적으로만 존재하고 있다는 것을 의미한다. 그리고 AR(1)을 사용하여 예측한 기대물가상승률이 랜돔워크모형을 사용한 경우보다 나은 추정결과를 보여주고 있다.

• Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.21-38
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• 2005

The purpose of this research is to develop a probability program based on the actual condition of understanding of probability by the elementary school students from 3rd to 6th grade and search for ways to apply it to the 3rd grade of elementary school students. Based on the results from the research, the author reached a conclusion as following. After applying the learning program to five students of 3rd grade, all of the five students made progress understanding the concept of experimental and theoretical probability. However, for understanding the concept of example space, only two leading students were improved, which shows that students are having much difficulty in understanding the concept. As for under-standing the concept of experimental probability, many students gained the conceptual difference between the experimental and theoretical probability after using the program and enhanced their understanding of experimental probability.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.19 no.8
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• pp.1981-1989
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• 2015

Recently, the development of reliability analysis system for combat system is required, because, necessities of integrated reliability analysis research are emphasized. In this paper, we develop a system which analyzes vulnerabilities for tank(or armored vehicle) based on the fault tree analysis(FTA) technique. The FTA is representative technique of reliability analysis to find cause of fault and calculate probability of fault. To do this, we propose a method to apply FTA technique into domain of vulnerability analysis for tank. Also, we develop the vulnerability analysis system using the proposed method. The system analyzes hit probabilities of components of tank based on multiple shot-lines, and calculates kill probabilities. The analyzed and calculated data support vulnerability analysis of tank.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.303-303
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• 2011

효율적인 수자원 관리를 위해서는 미래 수문자료의 예측치에 대한 구간을 추정하여 미래에 관측될 자료에 대한 정보를 얻는 문제는 어렵지만 중요한 부분에 해당한다. 특히 중장기 유량예측은 입력변수의 불확실성이 크므로 확률론적 방법을 적용한 예측이 유리하다. 본 연구에서는 SSARR 모형을 이용하여 현재 유역의 상태에 과거에 재현되었던 강우를 결합한 앙상블 유출시나리오를 생성하였다. 그리고 대청댐 월 유입량에 대한 확률론적 예측방안을 제시하기위하여 과거 시나리오의 관측 ESP(Ensemble Streamflow Prediction)확률 및 Croley방법, PDF-Ratio방법을 한국의 기상예측정보 실정에 맞는 가중치 부여방안으로 적용하여 분석하였다. 2010년도 상반기를 기준으로 각 분석 기법별 정확성을 검증한 결과 Croley, PDF-Ratio 등 기상전망을 가중치로 부여한 확률론적 예측기법의 효용성을 확인하였다.