• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적위험분석

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A Study on the Evaluation of Value for Money in Private Provided Infrastructure with a Focus on BTO Projects (BTO 민간투자사업의 화폐적 투자가치 평가)

  • Baek, Seong-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.1 s.94
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2007
  • This study has examined the allocation of risk in Korea's private provided Infrastructure(PPI) with the following contents (1) Developing a quantitative risk allocation model for Korea's PPI and (2) examining the implication of changes in the minimum revenue guarantees (MRG) clause of government legislation using the developed empirical model. The model of this study adopts and extends H. Yamaguchi's model developed in 2002. To investigate Korea's actual risk allocation deals, the author incorporated the MRG framework. The payment related to the MRG is indeterminable. Hence. the average MRG rate was calculated using probabilistic risk analysis. The risk allocation model is applied to the two eases to validate the model and evaluate the project's VFM(Value for Money). As the revenue guarantee rate is lowered, the government subsidies are increased. This in turn worsens VFM. The same relationship is true when the revenue guarantee Period is shortened.