• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.53-60
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• 2018

In particular, the investigation of tendons in PSC Box Girder Bridge should be done in a systematic way. It is important to identify preventative maintenance activities that should be carried out in order to analyze the risk factors by type of representative tensions and to reduce risks in the long term. However, in the current maintenance system, various methodologies for investigating and repairing tensions have been studied, but it is difficult to investigate precisely tensions. Therefore, to apply the risk assessment for screening of tensions to the domestic PSC Box Bridge, we presented a risk matrix evaluation index that is consistent with the state assessment and maintenance system.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.179-185
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• 2010

In order to secure safety for the buckling and fracture of continuous welded rail and improve the efficiency of maintenance work, it is very important that grasp the characteristics of rail temperature. Recently, the maximum air temperature in summer season rises gradually and the minimum air temperature in winter season is decreasing gradually due to the climate change. Therefore, these phenomenon influences in the change amount of yearly rail temperature and can cause change of laying and maintenance temperature. In this study, actual measurement of rail temperature including climatic factors is carried out by constructing the temperature and climate measurement system as realistic as possible. Through the intensive investigation of actual data, it is founded that the existing prediction formulas for rail temperature may be used only in certain climatic conditions (certain combination of climatic factors). It may be more reasonable that the rail temperature considering actual climatic factors in site is predicted on probabilistic approach.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.1651-1664
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• 2013

Precise analysis on deterioration processes of road pavements is not so simple matter due to severe uncertainty originated from a lot of explanatory variables engaged in. For those reasons, most analytical models for pavement deterioration prediction have often preferred to probabilistic approaches than deterministic models. However, the general probabilistic approaches that treat overall characteristics of population or entire sample would not be suitable for providing detail or localized information on their changing process. Considering the aspects, this paper aimed to suggest a stochastic disaggregation method to analyze the localized deterioration speeds and its variances changed by time and condition states. In addition, life expectancies and their uncertainty were estimated by probabilistic algorithm using the disaggregated stochastic process. For an empirical study, pavement inspection data (crack) accumulated from 2003 to 2010 from Korean national highway network was applied. This study can contribute to securing reliability of life cycle cost analysis, which is one of the primary analyses in road asset management, with much advanced deterioration forecasting functions. In addition, it would be meaningful trials as fundamental research for preventive maintenance strategy that demands essential understanding on changing process of the deterioration speed of pavement.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.49-58
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• 2008

Generally, steel corrosion occurs in concrete structures due to carbonation in down-town area and underground site and it propagates to degradation of structural performance. In general diagnosis and inspection, only carbonation depth in sound concrete is evaluated but unsound concrete such as joint and cracked area may occur easily in a concrete member due to construction process. In this study, field survey of carbonation for RC columns in down-town area is performed and carbonation depth in joint and cracked concrete including sound area is measured. Probability of durable failure with time is calculated through probability variables such as concrete cover depth and carbonation depth which are obtained from field survey. In addition, service life of the structures is predicted based on the intended probability of durable failure in domestic concrete specification. It is evaluated that in a RC column, various service life is predicted due to local condition and it is rapidly decreased with insufficient cover depth and growth of crack width. It is also evaluated that obtaining cover depth and quality of concrete is very important because the probability of durable failure is closely related with C.O.V. of cover depth.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.241-251
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• 2015

Compared with ballasted track (BT), ballasted asphalt track (BAT) has been increasingly adopted in many countries due to its more greatly reduced reinforced roadbed thickness and smaller cumulative plastic deformation, and its advantages in terms of maintenance. In this respect, the authors' previous research includes analysis of BAT sections that show performance similar to that of BT sections of the present specifications; reliability verification of the analysis results through real-sized static and dynamic train-load tests were performed. Based on previous research, this paper estimates the track lifetime using the strain of the lower roadbed according to reinforced roadbed thickness; using probabilistic LCC analysis, this paper presents a BAT section that satisfies the design lifetime and that has performance similar to or higher than that of BT.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.5-5
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• 2020

가뭄은 일반적으로 기상학적, 수문학적, 농업적 및 사회·경제적 가뭄으로 분류된다. 그 중 강수량 부족으로 인해 야기되는 기상학적 가뭄은 지역 사회에 직접적인 피해를 유발하는 도화선이 된다. 그러나 강우량 부족이 경제적, 사회적 피해로 전파되는 과정은 단순하지 않으며, 정량화가 어려운 실정이다. 가뭄 위험도는 수문기상학적 요인뿐만 아니라 자연재해에 대한 지역의 취약성의 맥락에서 파악되어야하므로, 가뭄 위험도 평가 방안은 위험도와 지역사회 사이의 관계를 규명하는 과정을 포함해야 한다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 가뭄 취약성(vulnerability)과 노출성(hazard)을 정량화하여 나타내는 지표를 적용한 가뭄 위험도 분석 방법이 주로 사용된다. 일반적으로 수용되는 취약성 개념은 개인 또는 그룹이 자연재해의 영향에 대처하고 이에 저항할 수 있는 능력을 의미하며, 노출성은 자연적 또는 인간이 유발할 수 있는 물리적 사건의 가능성을 나타낸다. 따라서 취약성은 지역의 문화적, 사회적 및 경제적 인자를 이용하여 정의된다. 반면 노출성은 주어진 시간 또는 영역 내에서의 특정 현상의 발생 확률에 따라 결정된다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄 취약성 지수 (Drought Vulnerability Index, DVI)와 가뭄 노출성 지수(Drought Hazard Index, DHI)를 이용하여 지역 가뭄 위험도를 평가하였다. 취약성 및 노출성 지수를 활용한 선행연구에서의 주요 쟁점은 연구자의 주관성을 배제하고 지역의 상황을 반영할 수 있도록 (1) 객관적이고 합리적인 변수의 선택과 (2) 각 인자들의 관계를 규정하는 가중치 정의 방법이다. 본 연구에서는 확률론적 접근방법을 적용한 위험도 평가 방안을 제시하고자 하였다. DVI를 산정 시 지역에서 지배적인 사회경제적 인자를 선택하기 위해 주성분분석(PCA) 기법을 활용하였으며, DHI는 이변량 가뭄 빈도 분석에 의해 산정된 특정 가뭄사상의 발생 확률로 정의되었다. 본 연구에서는 국내에서 가뭄 위험도가 가장 높은 것으로 평가되는 충청북도 및 충청남도를 대상지역으로 선정하고 지역 위험도를 평가하였다. 그 결과 가장 가뭄 위험도가 높은 지역은 충청북도에서는 청주시, 충청남도에서는 공주시로 분석되었다. 특히 청주시는 DVI가 매우 높지만 DHI는 상대적으로 작게 나타났으며, 반면 공주시는 DHI와 DVI가 지역 내에서 가장 높게 산정되었다.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.39 no.10
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• pp.27-39
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• 2023

To effectively manage flood risk, it is crucial to assess the stability of flood defense structures like levees under extreme flood conditions. This study focuses on the time-dependent probabilistic assessment of embankment slope stability when subjected to rapid water level drops. We integrate seepage analysis results from finite element analysis with slope stability analysis and employ Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the time-dependent behavior of the slope during rapid drawdown. The resulting probability of failure is used to develop fragility curves for the levee slope. Notably, the probability of slope failure remains low up to a specific water level, sharply increasing beyond that threshold. Furthermore, the fragility curves are strongly influenced by the rate of drawdown, which is determined through hydraulic analysis based on flood scenarios. Climate change has a significant impact on the stability of the water-side slope of the embankment due to water level fluctuations.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.6D
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• pp.587-598
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• 2012

Successful implementation of infrastructure asset management system can be started with rich and reliable data. However, measurement errors in the data have always existed in the real world caused for many unknown reasons. It disturbs maintenance activities of agencies, and makes negative effects to reliability of research results on forecasting deterioration process and life cycle cost. Above all, it makes a contradiction that road agencies cannot believe their inspection data surveyed by their hands. It is particularly serious in the road pavement management field. Although road agencies are well recognized the fact, inspecting without measurement error would be a great challenge. Considering the facts, this paper aimed to suggest statistical error processing methods to correct latent error included in pavement surface inspection data. As alternatives, this paper suggested two methods based on probability distribution to consider structure of error and reliability of the data. The suggested methods were empirically tested by using pavement inspection data from Korean National Highway. As the result, this paper confirmed that conventional error processing that just removes only visible errors is not enough to cover uncertainty in pavement deterioration process. The suggested methods would be useful for improving reliability of analysis results required for road infrastructure asset management.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.2081-2091
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• 2013

Recently, the demand on the practical application of life-cycle cost effectiveness for design and rehabilitation of civil infrastructure is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Accordingly, in the 21st century, it is almost obvious that life-cycle cost together with value engineering will become a new paradigm for all engineering decision problems in practice. However, in spite of impressive progress in the researches on the LCC, the most researches have only focused on the Deterministic or Probabilistic LCC analysis approach and general bridge at design stage. Thus, the goal of this study is to develop a practical and realistic methodology for the Life-Cycle Cost LCC-effective optimum decision-making based on reliability analysis of bridges at design stage. The proposed updated methodology is based on the concept of Life Cycle Performance(LCP) which is expressed as the sum of present value of expected direct/indirect maintenance costs with expected optimal maintenance scenario. The updated LCC methodology proposed in this study is applied to the optimum design problem of an actual highway bridge with Cable Stayed Bridges. In conclusion, based on the application of the proposed methods to an actual example bridge, it is demonstrated that a updated methodology for performance-based LCC analysis proposed in this thesis, shown applicably in practice as a efficient, practical, process LCC analysis method at design stage.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.195-202
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• 2008

Underestimation of the capacity can have serious economic consequences, as deficient bridges must be posted, repaired or replaced. Accurate prediction of bridge behavior may allow for more bridges to remain in service with or without minor repairs. The presented research is focused on the reliability evaluation of the actual load carrying capacity of existing bridges based on the field testing. Reliability analysis is performed on 17 previously tested bridges. Bridges are first evaluated based on the code specified values and design resistance. However, after the field testing program, it is possible to apply the experimental results into the bridge reliability evaluation procedures. The girder distribution factors obtained from the tests are also applied in the reliability calculation. The results indicate that the reliability indices of selected bridges can be significantly increased due to the reduction of uncertainties without sacrificing the safety of structures, by including the result of field measurement data into calculation.