• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 유지관리

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Evaluation of Service Life in RC Column under Chloride Attack through Field Investigation: Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches (염해 실태조사를 통한 철근 콘크리트 교각의 내구수명 평가 - 결정론적 및 확률론적 해석방법)

  • Kwon, Seung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2015
  • RC (Reinforced Concrete) structures are considered as cost-benefit and durable however performances of structural safety and durability are degraded due to steel corrosion. Service life in RC structure is differently evaluated due to different local environmental conditions even if it is exposed to the same chloride attack. In the paper, 25 concrete cores from field investigation are obtained from 4 RC columns with duration of 3.5~4.5 years exposed to sea water. Through total chloride content measurement, surface chloride contents and apparent diffusion coefficients are evaluated. Service life of the target structure is estimated through deterministic method based on Fick's $2^{nd}$ Law and probabilistic method based on durability failure probability, respectively. Probability method is evaluated to be more conservative and relatively decreased service life is evaluated in tidal zone and splash zone over 40.0 m. Chloride penetration behavior with coring location from sea level and the present limitations of durability design method are investigated in the paper.

Study for Determination of Management Thresholds of Bridge Structural Health Monitoring System based on Probabilistic Method (확률론적 방법에 의한 교량계측시스템의 관리기준치 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Haeng-Bae;Song, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2016
  • Recently, structural health monitoring system(SHMS) has been appled cable bridges as the effective maintenance tool and the management threshold is considered to assess the status of the bridge in SHMS. The threshold is generally determined by the allowable limit based on design specification because there is no method and standard for threshold calculation. In case of the conventional thresholds, it is difficult to recognize the event, abnormal behavior and gradual damage within the threshold. Therefore, this study reviewed the problem of previous methods and proposed the advanced methodologies based on probabilistic approach for threshold calculation which can be applied to practice work. Gumbel distribution is adopted in order to calculate the threshold for caution and warning states considering the expectations for return periods of 50 and 100 years. The thresholds were individually determined for measurement data and data variation to detect the various abnormal behaviors within allowable range. Finally, it has confirmed that the thresholds by the proposed method is detectable the abnormal behavior of real-time measuring data from SHMS.

Application of probabilistic VE/LCC Analysis Models for Quay Wall Structures (안벽구조물의 확률론적 VE/LCC 분석모델 적용방안)

  • Ahn, Jong-Pil;Lee, Cheung-Bin;Park, Ju-Won;Yu, Deog-Chan
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2007
  • It is common that the analysis of VE/LCC is performed in design phase of quay wall structures. The analysis is mainly executed based on experience and engineering sense of expert considering the selection of construction method, construction and maintenance cost. Recently there are increasing demands on the analysis that includes uncertainty and vulnerability of input parameters, for this purpose, fuzzy reliability based probabilistic VE/LCC analysis model for quay wall structures is suggested. In VE/LCC analysis for quay wall structures, the application of probabilistic analysis method give very similar results compare with those of deterministic analysis method. It is anticipated that the methodology proposed in this paper can also be utilized in the design and maintenance phase of other facilities where decision making is made for the probabilistic life cycle cost and value analysis.

A study regarding the unserved energy rate of power system for probabilistic reliability assessment (확률론적 신뢰도 평가를 위한 전력설비 비가용률 산정에 관한 고찰)

  • Shin, Jung-Sun;Kim, Kwang-Jin;Jo, Kang-Uk;Cha, Jun-Min
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2009.07a
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    • pp.109_110
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    • 2009
  • 전력설비 비가용률은 전력계통의 확률론적 신뢰도평가를 위해 필요한 자료로 비가용률 자체의 정도에 의해 신뢰도평가 결과의 수용성이 결정된다. 이를 위해서는 전력설비 비가용률을 산정하는 방법 및 결과의 일관성을 유지할 필요가 있다. 본 논문은 2008년 개정된 "전력설비 정지관리 기준"을 중심으로 비가용률의 신뢰도를 향상시킬 수 있도록 발전설비 및 송변전설비 비가용률을 산정하는 방식과 아직 통계관리가 미흡한 발전설비 감발운전의 처리방향에 대하여 논하고자 한다.

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Service Life Variation for RC Structure under Carbonation Considering Korean Design Standard and Design Cover Depth (국내설계기준과 피복두께를 고려한 RC 구조물의 탄산화 내구수명의 변동성)

  • Kim, Yun-Shik;Kwon, Seung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, service life for RC(Reinforced Concrete) substructure subjective to carbonation was evaluated through deterministic and probabilistic method considering field investigation data and Design Code(KDS 14 20 40). Furthermore changes in service life with increasing COV(Coefficient of Variation) and equivalent safety index meeting the same service life were studied. From the investigation, the mean and its COV of cover depth were evaluated to 70.0 ~ 90.0 mm and 0.2, respectively. With intended failure probability of 10.0 % and 70 mm of cover depth, service life decreased to 137 years, 123 years, and 91 years with increasing COV of 0.05, 0.1, and 0.2, respectively. In the case of 80 mm of cover depth, it changes to 179 years, 161 years, and 120 years with increasing COV. The equivalent safety index meeting the same service life from deterministic method showed 1.66 ~ 3.43 for 70 mm of cover depth and 1.61 ~ 3.24 for 80 mm of cover depth, respectively. The various design parameters covering local environment and quality condition in deterministic method yields a considerable difference of service life, so that determination of design parameters are required for exposure conditions and parameter variation.

Durability Analysis and Development of Probability-Based Carbonation Prediction Model in Concrete Structure (콘크리트 구조물의 확률론적 탄산화 예측 모델 개발 및 내구성 해석)

  • Jung, Hyunjun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4A
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    • pp.343-352
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    • 2010
  • Recently, many researchers have been carried out to estimate more controlled service life and long-term performance of carbonated concrete structures. Durability analysis and design based on probability have been induced to new concrete structures for design. This paper provides a carbonation prediction model based on the Fick's 1st law of diffusion using statistic data of carbonated concrete structures and the probabilistic analysis of the durability performance has been carried out by using a Bayes' theorem. The influence of concerned design parameters such as $CO_2$ diffusion coefficient, atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration, absorption quantity of $CO_2$ and the degree of hydration was investigated. Using a monitoring data, this model which was based on probabilistic approach was predicted a carbonation depth and a remaining service life at a variety of environmental concrete structures. Form the result, the application method using a realistic carbonation prediction model can be to estimate erosion-open-time, controlled durability and to determine a making decision for suitable repair and maintenance of carbonated concrete structures.

An Uncertainty Analysis of Calculating Life Cycle Maintenance and Energy Costs for Technical Proposals (기술제안입찰을 위한 유지관리 및 에너지 비용 산출방식의 불확실성 분석)

  • Chung, Sung Young;Kim, Sean Hay
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2018
  • Although Life Cycle Cost (LCC) must be evaluated by experts, sometimes it may not allow a sufficient time for even the experienced LCC expert to make rational decisions. Therefore, it often ends with relatively comparing the final numbers. We have broken down 110 technical proposals that are actually bade and accepted for large construction projects, and then have analyzed the uncertainty of Maintenance and Energy (M&E) cost during building life cycle, which turns out be the most volatile factor in uncertainty of LCC. Also we suggest "Value Engineering Index (VEI)" - the reduced M&E cost that is normalized by the reduced first cost. It is analyzed that the most uncertain factors of the M&E cost include repair and replacement term differing from each project, duplicated repair and replacement, non-standard repair items, and site-specific energy cost. Eventually we propose a VEI population with a mean of 1.38 and a standard deviation of 1.19, which is obtained by individually and exclusively applying the uncertain factors of the M&E cost to the 35 standard sample of technical proposals. The LCC evaluators may be able to use the VEI population as the benchmark to select the technical proposal with the most reasonable LCC among many others in two suggested manners; the one is to deterministically calculate the probability of single VEIs, and the other is to stochastically calculate the probability of the VEIs where uncertainty is quantified.

Basic Properties of Polymer Cement Mortar with EVA Emulsion and Admixtures (EVA 에멀젼과 혼화재를 사용한 폴리머 시멘트 모르타르의 기초적 성질)

  • Jo, Young-Kug
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the degree of improvement in strengths by mixing blast-furnace slag and fly ash in polymer cement mortar(PCM). The test specimens are prepared with EVA polymer dispersion, two types of Admixtures (blast-furnace slag and fly ash), five kinds of polymer-cement ratios (0, 5, 10, 15 and 20%), and six kinds of admixtures (0, 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20%). Plain cement mortar is also made for comparison. From the test results, the flowing of PCM is greatly improved with the mixing of the admixtures, and strengths of PCM compared to ordinary cement mortar are also improved due to a decrease in water cement ratio. In addition, the strength characteristics of PCM by admixtures are greatly improved in flexural strength with fly ash compared to other strengths. It is apparent that the optimum mix proportions with polymer-cement ratio of 10% or more, admixture contents 5 to 10% of flay ash for flexural strength improvement of EVA-cement mortar are recommended in this study.

Estimation of Life Expectancy and Budget Demands based on Maintenance Strategy (도로포장 유지보수 전략에 따른 기대수명과 보수비용산정)

  • Han, Dae-Seok;Do, Myung-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.4D
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    • pp.345-356
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    • 2012
  • Road pavement requires repetitive maintenance works to maintain satisfactory service level to the public. However, the repetitive maintenance works upon deteriorated pavement structure make negative effects to deterioration speed. It often leads to inefficient use of limited budget. For that reason, the pavements require reconstruction work to recover their original performance. Recently, construction demands in the Korean national highway have already been reached to maximum level, and the aged pavements start to demand much more reconstruction works. However, in the real world, road agencies have often been confused when they determine maintenance design for such aged road sections due to budget constraint. It is because there is no reliable long-term maintenance strategy that supports their decision making. To support their decision making, this paper aimed to suggest the best maintenance strategy considering changing process of pavement performance by repetitive maintenance works. As an analysis method, probability distribution and hazard function to estimate the life expectancy were adopted, and then the results were used for long-term life cycle cost analysis with deterministic or Monte-Carlo method under various scenarios. As an empirical study, the Korean national highway data that has long-maintenance history data since 1986 has been applied. Last, this paper considered quality assurance of maintenance work to improve maintenance quality. These could be important information as a part of long-term maintenance strategy of pavement.

Maintenance of the Sea-crossing Bridge for Ship Collision Problems (선박충돌 문제에 대한 해상교량의 유지관리)

  • Bae, Yong-Gwi;Lee, Seong-Lo
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.56-64
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    • 2016
  • Damage of sea-crossing bridge by ship collision is related to estimate frequencies of overloading due to impact, and bridge accordingly must be designed to satisfy related acceptance criteria. Another important aspect is the management on increment of collision risk during the service period. In this study, related plan, main span length, air draft clearance and collision risk are analyzed for the interim assessment of Incheon Bridge focusing on the ship collision problem. In particular, for the increment of collision risk, the optimized navigation speed is proposed by reviewing the research findings and navigation guidelines etc. as a temporary expedient. Also basic procedure for reasonable prediction of target vessel and passage is established and probabilistic prediction method to embrace the uncertainty of the prediction is proposed as a fundamental solution. It is necessary to conduct further research on collision risk management and promptly carry out interim assessments of other marine bridges.